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CalBear95
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Posts posted by CalBear95
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I was waiting for someone to write this article because analytics are a rorshach test in most cases and I was curious how it would play on this forum specifically the decision to go for it on 4th and 1 vs punting
The 4th and 1 decision vs punting was 100% correct and I would hope DL decides to go for it every time he faces that situation. You might not have liked the play call but the decision was entirely correct
Here is the key thing on analytics: in almost all cases a punt is a turnover (and therefore, almost always the wrong decision). You might think that’s crazy or that I am wrong but the math bears it out. This is by far the hardest thing for a lot of people to wrap their heads around because it runs counter to everything we ‘know’ about football strategy
Going on 4th was the best decision because punting just gives the Dawgs a high probability of scoring but with no time left. Better to either keep the ball via conversion or let the Dawgs get their points but with time left on the clock for the Ducks to execute AND with perfect information on what was needed score wise
I actually would have gone for the conversion to try and go up by 11. Be curious to see what the math says on that.
DL and co have been too aggressive, for sure. No argument here. But I would rather have a coach who needs to dial it down while still embracing analytics than one who has to be coaxed to do so and thinks ‘pinning them inside the 20’ is ever a good strategy
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As others have said, the SEC does this so they can have 8 league games and reduce the risk of a top team taking a loss in conference play.
I would like to see some criteria for future selection (even in 12 team playoff) that says leagues with 8 conference games will be penalized relative to those w/9 as the latter involves more risk.
The SEC will claim their 8 game set up is equivalent to 10 conference games anywhere else and since it’s the SEC that employs this practice there will be zero consequences for doing so.
That said, I do hope SoS has a much higher weight going forward.
For example, some Athletic writer was saying it’s unfair for Michigan to be punished for scheduling decisions made years ago. This take is wrong for the simple fact Michigan’s AD had total knowledge at the time those games were scheduled that SoS was a decision factor for the CFP. They consciously took the risk. So what would be unfair is to not saddle them with the consequences of a decision the AD had full knowledge could work against them
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@cartm25 Let's dig a little deeper into that 2022 NFL 1st round draft cohort (all Defensive side of the ball). Following is a stack ranked list each player selected: Name/Position/pick #/recruiting class/rating. Keep in mind, Kirby's first year as coach was 2016 (hired December 2015)
Travon Walker (EDGE) 1st - 2019, 5-star
Jordan Davis (DL) - 13th - 2018, 3-star
Quay Walker (LB) - 22nd - 2018, 4-star
Devonte Wyatt (DT) - 28th - 2018, 4-star
Lewis Cine (S) - 32nd - 2018, 4-star
What should jump out at you right away is that only one of these players carried a vaunted 5-star rating. This list shows the value of development as well as fit for scheme versus a need for a ton of 5-star rated recruits. UGA's 'embarrassment of riches' was largely self-created.
Also note the class is almost exclusively on the part of the D that creates pressure on the QB, something the Ducks sorely miss at present.
This is what we need to keep an eye on. Can DL identify the right talent for his scheme and then develop those players to execute at an elite level. Smart's 2018 class was his 3rd recruiting year so hopefully year 2 under DL shows some progression from their current state.
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On 11/15/2022 at 12:36 PM, Charles Fischer said:
This also gets into the "loyalty vs. results" argument that coaches wrestle with internally all the time. Mark Helfrich was not good at hiring, and even worse at making changes. The question will remain the same for Lanning, and it could make-or-break him over time.
Or I could be completely wrong, as we clearly do not have the personnel (IMHO) to implement what Lanning did at Georgia. Dazed has deferred his thoughts until after the season, and I will do the same on my remaining concerns. (Great article Drex!)
How Brady Hoke Got Mark Helfrich FIRED
FISHDUCK.COM
Charles Fischer of FishDuck.com provides another set of examples showing how Oregon's defense is...Pete Carrol was (rightfully) dinged for this due to his inexplicable loyalty to Ed Norton Jr.
My guess is that Lupoi gets a pass this season and maybe next. Georgia had a crazy elite defense last year. Recall, however, it was nasty in years prior and didn’t have 5 first round picks. The point being DL’s scheme requires a certain player type but they don’t need to be otherworldly
Lupoi will need to show growth as a coach. Absent that, recruiting chops should be outweighed by execution for the simple fact that it doesn’t matter if you land elite players if you can’t utilize that talent on the field.
We shall see. Hiring and firing is a very hard skill to master in any business
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Going for it was the correct decision but the personnel was wrong. They weren’t going to stop the Huskies so punting delayed the inevitable
What I do have issue with it was taking the FG with 4 and change left. If you will go for it on your 31, you should make the same decision at your 8 so to put the game away.
I think the Ducks win out from here TBH. This is one of those games that is a really tough learning moment for DL and his staff. Rookie coaches carry risk and that was borne out on Saturday
I’m OK with that process so long as he learns from it and it makes him and the team better
But I kinda feel that after this kind of loss, the Ducks have no pressure of the CFP and should play loose against Utah, OSU and the PAC title game (which they will get to)
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On 11/8/2022 at 4:25 PM, Krsmqn said:
Rece is a tool, and obviously hates Oregon.
I just read about his snark. Love he doesn’t say that OSU and Michigan benefit by playing B1G teams when the conference is clearly awful this year.
As Canzano notes, despite the rankings being in front of him, he is only going to see his priors (unless he thinks the rankings are wrong at which point I would just love to hear his thoughts on Bama, Clemson and ND)
Regrettably, this guy goes a long way to shaping the national perception
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The committee - while voting a lot on brand reputation vs actual performance (see Alabama, Clemson, USC, and ND) - is clearly signaling TN is in trouble. The Ducks SOS is only going up and TN’s down. If each wins out, the Ducks are ahead of TN (at either 3 or 4)
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For those who saw the Crystal ball flip of Dante Moore (to MSU), it apparently rests on a perceived risk of DL leaving for Auburn as Moore has cited his relationship with both DL and Dilly for his commitment to Oregon
If that is indeed correct then after today MSU is going to need some other angle to work as that answer from DL was about as unambiguous as it comes
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Assuming the Ducks win the next 4 we need to jump to #3 so they don't catch UGA in the first round. One week at a time but, to me, they are 3, not 2, spots from where they need to be.
If TCU loses the chaos will truly be unleashed because the committee is already a little sketchy about them and this past week's performance isn't going to help. If they lose, I think their CFP hopes are done and a ton of teams become viable for the #3 and #4 seeds
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On 11/6/2022 at 4:06 AM, OceaniaDuck said:
I'm going to go against the grain here and say that IMHO MC will eventually right the ship at The U. He probably doesn't have the right kind of roster that fits his brand of football - yes, it was boring lol but it did get us a Rose Bowl victory - patience will need to be a virtue for Miami fans unfortunately. On the bright side, MC did continue to establish the foundation of recruiting blue-chip players to Eugene that Taggart started and he did get it right when it came to upgrading Oregon's O-line. I think we need to cut the guy some slack lol.
The problem is that his style of program no longer works in today’s game. He seems utterly incapable of evolving and/or recognizing he needs to adapt which, to me, says continual failure is a guaranteed outcome
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The Ducks have a really hard path. Lossington and the Utes are going to be tough games.
The Beavs will be a really hard road game.
And then, assuming they go 3-0 they face a 1 loss USC or UCLA.
They go 4-0 they deserve to be seriously considered for the CFP
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The SEC is so hard to read this year because Alabama is an enigma.
They barely beat TX in Austin even though they faced a second string QB and TX has been inconsistent after that game.
They lose to TN on the road because of bad clock management by Saban.
TN mauls LSU at LSU. LSU then beats the Tide at home in OT.
So, that suggests a lot of parity. The question is whether these are all dominant teams that all deserve top 10 rankings or being spread out across the top 15.
I have zero idea.
That’s why the CFP rankings are a total crapshoot
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On 11/6/2022 at 1:45 AM, AnotherOD said:
Ducks need to just keep winning (Georgia too).
If we are talking playoff spots:
I think Texas takes down TCU next week at home. If not they still have at Baylor then Iowa State, then probably Texas (or Baylor, or Kansas State) in their Championship game.
The ESPN talking heads tonight agreed Oregon likely sits at 6 Tuesday, a TCU loss gets them to 5.
Ohio State and Michigan play, and one will lose and drop and that gets them to 4.
I think tOSU is the team Duck fans should pull for, as the B10 hasn't looked so great this year, and Michigan's favorable OOC schedule will do them no favors with a single loss. If Michigan wins, a one loss tOSU perhaps is a bigger obstacle (but in that case they miss their championship game and I think likely still slip a spot below the Ducks). Assume Ohio State gets revenge this year.
Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, and probably Tennessee (unless the committee opts for Michigan). What am I missing? Things seem to be lining up pretty nicely.
The story at #4 may not be will a one-loss Pac-12 Champion get in -- but rather which one loss team who missed their conference championship (Tennessee and Ohio State/Michigan loser) gets in.
Ducks and Georgia need to keep winning (Georgia in theory could face and need to beat a one loss Old Miss if Mississippi is able to finish the year by beating Alabama, Arkansas, and MSU to reach the SEC final to keep them out).
LSU controls its own destiny in the West. If they win out then assuming UGA does the same those two will meet in the championship game.
Mississippi needs to beat Alabama and for LSU to stumble
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The B12 is hard to read this year. Ok St looks like world beaters and have flopped. Same with KS. TX is inconsistent. TCU isn’t blowing through the league.
A lot of parity at the top.
Long way of saying TCU is a tough read
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On 11/4/2022 at 7:05 PM, Charles Fischer said:
I respect your views airspace, and really appreciate the information you have brought to us. But in the end--most of us do not want to join the B1G, and would prefer for the Pac-12 to survive.
This might mean at Oregon we spend the same on football as B1G teams do, but have to cut other sports. But so much is yet to be learned:
--What is the 12 team playoff going to pay?
--What is the new TV and Streaming contracts going to pay Pac-12 schools?
--If the team going to the Playoff or bowl game gets 50% of the take with the rest divided 11 ways--the winners are rewarded. We have yet to learn if this will happen in our conference.
--It will be easier to make a 12 team Playoff in the Pac-12, and receive that extra money than being in the B1G, IMHO.
So, you could be correct eventually, but if I'm going to play in snow--I want it to be in Pullman, and not Minneapolis or Madison, or..... This whole episode has made many of us value our traditions on the west coast, and our connections with the schools in our conference.
I also hope the conference stays together and can earn enough to be highly competitive. The CFP expansion will help a lot in this regard.
The PAC is harmed by its time zone, not the quality of play per se. Our prime time is bed time for ~65% of the country.
I do hope UCLA is forced to stay but I am not hopeful that will happen.
If not, Oregon and the PAC are going to want to aggressively schedule (and win) home/home against the EST teams to increase their visibility
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Well, that’s entirely up to the B1G and it seems pretty clear they don’t want their fingerprints on the metaphorical knife that kills the conference.
At this juncture the four corner schools are the glue holding the conference together. If for some reason they decide life would be better in the B12 then that is likely when an Oregon move happens because the B1G can pose as a rescuer.
But not until then (or some future date when the B1G is less worried about being seen as killing off another conference) Oregon is staying put.
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My hope is that this freewheeling spending by a booster with so much money it doesn’t matter to them they spend to land recruits is enough to get the power schools in the SEC and B1G to the point that even they can’t stand the craziness and so conclude reigning in NIL is very much in their interests.
For better or worse, it’s the B1G and SEC’s world and we’re just living in it. Only way peace spreads across the land is if they will it into being
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Husky fans on Twitter saying DL is as good as gone. He hasn’t even taken them out to the woodshed yet and they already suffer from the trauma. Wishing he will go won’t make it so.
For those who might be nervous here, don’t be. Last year it was clear the Auburn job was going to come open in 2022 so if DL wanted that role he would not have left UGA for Oregon. He’s not going anywhere (other than perhaps into a new tax bracket)
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As I wrote at the time of the search, no other program with an opening was even considering Wilcox. That should tell you one of two things: he’s either a really mediocre to bad coach or you are seeing something that eludes everyone else.
The fact Mullens threw himself at Wilcox multiple times in a fit of desperation was (and remains) alarming.
Wilcox likes to hide behind the built in excuses at Cal because he is, at best, a mediocre coach. He should never have been on the list and only was because some ex-players and boosters were panicked about another coach leaving and so convinced themselves the answer was “an Oregon man.”The Ducks dodged a huge bullet.
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I wasn’t able to catch a lot of the game but what I did see was definitely not as sharp as the week prior. That said, I don’t feel they played down to the level of the competition. While there was likely a drop in focus after such a huge game, they were never really in risk of losing.
The same could not be said of last year’s team who would probably have lost
It is nigh impossible to play at the level they did against UCLA week in and week out. So if is their “let down” mode, this team is going to be just fine.
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IDK how this ends. I do think the fate of the conference sits in the hands of the four corner schools.
Yes, of course the payout per school is a critical baseline. I think the question comes down to (1) how much revenue in any P12 deal comes from streaming only platforms and (2) whether the B12 deal has an escalating payout if that league expands.
If (2) is “no” then I see no way any P12 school defects to the B12
If (2) is “yes” and the new P12 deal has a decent slate of valuable inventory consigned to its streaming partner(s) it might force the corner schools to decide how much risk they want to take. At the end of the day, even if you make more than your B12 peers but nobody really watches your games, you aren’t really coming out ahead.
As they say, out of sight, out of mind..
I don’t really know enough about the growth projections for streaming audiences vs linear TV and am pretty certain the P12 team has a ton of people on staff who do.
But your future (giving it exclusivity for your rights for some extended period of time) to a conference so desperate that is seriously having to take the risk (when you can always wait and see from the vantage of your new conference who will happily jump on the new trend after your old conference took all the risk to validate it) a really tall
Absent linear media revenue and inventory guarantees that that are equal to the B12, the move I would make - assuming the answer to (2) is “yes” - is to defect and collapse the P12. Streaming inventory isn’t a concept that is going anywhere so why risk oblivion if it doesn’t turn out to be a difference maker?
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Dawgs. Far more brand equity and so that carries a ton of weight with those who don’t pay a ton of attention to the conference but have a real impact on shaping the narrative of P5 pecking order.
Utah has already broken through.
Shaw is a total choker in games not against the Ducks and especially outside the conference so no Furd for me.
That leaves OSU because it makes late season football a must watch for the country and props up playoff rankings for OBD when they win.
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@HappyToBeADuckMy point wasn’t that nothing is happening - assuredly there is - but as @Charles Fischermentioned earlier, the streaming aspects are complicated and take time. The relatively frequent updates just aren’t all that useful because that time scale is completely out of phase with the cadence of those business conversations.
That is what I meant by my point about these ‘updates’ being of low value.
That will change once we have something substantive to react to from those discussions or from others such as those being led by the B12.
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I too was pleasantly surprised to see UO/UCLA take the lion’s share of eyeballs. I really think a good chunk people just want to watch good football games regardless of conference. And I think that is also a sign that we shouldn’t be afraid to try to own the 1pm PST slot instead of the 7:30 window.
It occurred to me yesterday that my disbelief that the media markets on the west coast aren’t valuable unless they are used to fill the late window was underpinned by my conflating economic power with raw population. The west coast is far and away the biggest economic engine in the US followed by the east coast (largely due to NYC). But we don’t have huge population areas outside of LA. Kinda hard to wrap the mind around
As to streaming I was curious as to others’ experience on this. We cut the cord recently and use Hulu++ (comes with ESPN premium and conference networks). We also have Prime and Apple+. I get confused when people scoff at online as some unreliable or crazy platform. After all, Netflix is a heavily used service and it is in no way different than Hulu++ or Apple+
So, I love the ease of switching from game to game as well has having a ton of games to choose fromAnyone here also cut the cord or are skeptical of streaming?
Lanning Plays With Fire, Duck Fans Get Burned
in Our Beloved Ducks
Posted
For those curious on the math, this the paper that started the whole perspective shift (Cal prof obvs)
https://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/nber9024.pdf