CalBear95

I think the Ducks lose because they have a massive disadvantage which is having to shake off the rust after 4 weeks off. OSU has played once and won’t suffer from that need. In a game where possessions will be at a premium it could take 2-3 for the Ducks to find their season form. This is what I hate about the current structure of the playoffs. Not only is the seeding structure massively unfair, it punishes the higher seeds by making them have to wait 4 weeks. It might have been better for the Ducks to lose to PSU. They would have played a game with effectively two byes. You still rest without losing your rhythm. Hope I’m wrong but the Ducks have been handed every possible anchor the playoffs could toss them.

The reason the flaw exists is that they wanted first round byes for the top four conference champs and once you operate from that framework, the only thing that works is 12 teams. And once you settle on a framework of seeding the next 8 by ranking (and an auto bid for champ #5) you inevitably land on some really bad outcomes. It's a perfect example of letting a focus on a particular structure destroy the objective/goal of the endeavor: determine the best team in CFP. I'm sure the top 4 bye structure was devised because it was the only way to get broad sign-off from the then P5 (and maybe silence legal action from the G5). The mindless seeding? On that they have zero excuse for not anticipating what has come to pass. Seriously, these guys were really lazy or really didn't care. All you had to do was to imagine a scenario where the top 4 seeds weren't the top 4 ranked teams (a highly probable outcome given historical final rankings). You then use your system of mindlessly seeding teams. It would become very clear very quickly that method is utterly broken. How these people make as much money as they do is a total mystery to me.

It’s amazing people building this system couldn’t see this train wreck coming down the tracks. It’s not like this was some non-obvious result. It’s not like they didn’t have access to a system that already works. It’s unfortunate that the Ducks will suffer the consequences of being the top seed in a year where all of these flaws are exposed but not yet fixed. Win your conference and you’re in nothing else is guaranteed. Reseeding is a great idea. If they can’t fix the conf champs getting a bye at least reseed to help mitigate the damage from that system

ESPN interviewing Michigan AD about seeding and that Oregon has a much harder path than the team they just beat. Says they rank and then seed and don’t think about how it might disadvantage the teams that are judged to be the best. Well, maybe you should. It’s ridiculous that PSU who hasn’t beaten a top 15 team has an easier path than the two teams they lost to. It’s a total joke.

Notre Dame once again fails upward. They have a pretty easy road. Georgia is the only tough game but they’re so inconsistent

Apparently you don’t want to be the No. 1 seed.

OK…double post because I feel like ranting at the moment ND should be forced to join a conference. They skate by on a ridiculous schedule most years and are given far too much influence on how the playoff system works. If it isn’t clear, I absolutely loathe ND.

ND is the golden child. They always get the best possible treatment even if they don’t deserve it. Losing at NIU at home should be an anchor on their resume and preclude them getting a first round bye or jumping any other 1 loss team especially considering the team they would be jumping will have played an extra game against a top 5 opponent before these leagues haven’t yet clued into the fact that the championship game hurts their teams more than it helps them. If the Ducks lose they should fall no further than the 4 seed unless the playoff rules say on conf champs are eligible for first round byes in which case they should do worse than the 5 seed even if that requires making ND the ) seed.

I’m a Bear so The Play will always live in high profile lore and should never be put in the past. And not because the Bears are no better now than they were then but because Joe Starkey makes what it probably the single best call in television history. Flat out loses his mind. That never gets old. I think of The Pick the same way. Amazing call. But I understand there has been an evolution in the program and that moment probably doesn’t feel as seminal these days. I can understand wanting to retire it.

This article is just “I believe X for no other reason than I believe it” Just like I don’t think Kirby Smart ever tries the NFL, I don’t think Lanning does either. Both are perfectly suited for the college level and, I suspect, both know that. I honestly don’t think Lanning’s style would go over well in the NFL. He’s got the 18-21 year old psyche nailed cold.

I agree it isn't their fault. But, as the idiom goes, it is what it is. Oregon and Indiana are both undefeated, that's the beginning and ending of the comparison between the two undefeated seasons. I actually think IU looks a lot more like Texas than any other team. A weak SOS, no top 25 wins and a loss against the only raked team they have played (that’s assuming IU loses on Saturday and Texas to TAM later this month). IU does have a better argument that their 1 loss will have come on the road. I think Texas is better and probably by a fair margin. My guess is Texas has to beat TAM or they’re out. IU is probably a lock at that point but I really wouldn’t want to put that to the test if I were them given the depth of the SEC and the brand cachet that conference enjoys with the committee (I wrote about this in the ‘SEC is mad’ thread)

I agree with Saban. The SEC is deep this year and there is a lot of parity. If the SEC got 4 teams in I wouldn’t blink. 5, I could get it but the argument gets a lot tougher because now you need to subtract from somewhere and that somewhere is the B1G or ND. There are 4 teams max from the B1G. UO, OSU, PSU, and IU. The SEC can reasonably claim the following as CFP worthy teams: UGA, Alabama, Texas, TAM, Tennessee and Mississippi. UGA is a no-brainer though they aren’t perfect given their inconsistent play. But they have a rough SOS and going 3-2 against the top 25 is pretty good Alabama…guh! Take away their brand name and you are left with a win over UGA (good), a stretch of 3 mediocre games where they went 2-1 and could just have easily been 1-2 (not good) and a really ugly loss to Tennessee (not terrible only because it was a road game) Tennessee and Mississippi are very similar in terms of their argument. Wins against top 10 teams, losses to top 25 teams. They are good teams and I’d rank the Fighting Kiffins a nose ahead of Tennessee. After this weekend Texas will be in the same boat as IU: weak SOS and only 1 loss but it’s a convincing one against a top 10 team. The only difference is that Texas’ was at home. TAM’s resume gets worse with each week. Their win against LSU looks less impressive now and they’ve lost to any quality team they’ve met (USC being the most recent). If TAM beats Texas, however, all hell is going to break loose because (1) the SEC is at most going to get 5 teams but probably 4, and (2) what do you with Texas? The answer to that question causes a whole ripple effect. If Texas is in, how to you exclude TAM even though they are clearly in the 6 spot on this list but will have clinched a spot in the CG? And if Texas and TAM are then in, how do you argue Penn State or IU is better than either Mississippi or Tennessee given neither have wins against a top 15 opponent? So, Saban isn’t wrong when he says that. HOWEVER, unsaid is the lack of 9 league games. If you did that then I think you are left with a clearer picture of who the top 4 are and you avoid a situation where TAM and Texas can get to the conference CG even though they aren’t better than 3 or 4 other teams in the league. Said another way, live by the 8 game schedule sword, die by the 8 game sword.

Let’s say IU gets handled pretty easily (lose by 17+ points), what do you do with them if you are the committee? Yes, they are #5 now and it seems odd that a 1 loss B1G team would slip out of the CFP but…106 SOS and a non-competitive loss against a high caliber team is risky. I know it doesn’t work this way but if you had no idea of IU’s ranking heading into Saturday but knew their SOS and record, where would you rank them post a convincing loss? Over BYU? Over Tennessee? I am not sure I would (but could be convinced). It’s not IU’s fault their SOS is terrible and they’ve largely played the schedule they have pretty well. But it’s a huge warning sign for me if IU looks bad against the kind of team they’ll see in the CFP

My guess (hope?) is that the committee will operate a bit like they do for the basketball tournament when seeding and shape the bracket by dropping the Ducks or OSU to the 6 seed to avoid an outcome of the teams playing each other three times before the final where such a scenario would be acceptable. In BB slotting teams to avoid each other as long as possible e.g., Final Four) for one reason or another (like this one) happens pretty frequently. It would be smart for them to do that here.

There is no doubt that Georgia has played one of, if not the most, difficult schedules this year. Their losses have been on the road to highly ranked teams and they deserve grace for that. But it’s also fair to say Georgia’s play has been highly inconsistent to the point of being erratic. So this ‘eye test’ he’s asking for cuts both ways. Which Georgia shows up? With all of that said, I don’t want to hear one single ounce of complaining from any SEC team or fan until they move to a 9 conference game schedule. Don’t give me that ‘but our league is harder and so it would be unfair’ garbage. They are gaming the system to max out the number of teams with 2 losses or less. They shouldn’t be rewarded for doing so. As many have said in other posts, what in any other conference would be called the parity of the mediocre, with the SEC it’s a deep bench of excellence and that it would not be crazy for 5 of their teams to go to the Playoffs

“Hockey does have its moments” Hockey is, IMHO, the greatest sport on Earth. And absolutely nothing can touch the Stanley Cup Playoff. If you want to ‘get’ hockey, watch the post season (or go to a game in Canada). No disrespect to football. I love football. But there is no feat as impressive as winning Lord Stanley’s Cup. There just isn’t. Winning 4 best-of-7 high intensity series with little to no rest between games and series in a highly physical sport is just nuts. It’s a contest of both skills, grace and endurance. There is no other post season like it.

Weather forecast for the game is 54/47 and cloudy. That's super temperate and removes one of the disadvantages of playing in Madison in the middle of November.

I can't figure out the SEC this year so it's really hard to get a read on how elite some of its top teams are. Take Georgia, for example. Depending on which Carson Beck shows up they are either great or meh. And the good/bad versions show up with some frequency, often in the same game. So, how do you measure a team like that, a team that is highly inconsistent? Alabama is sort of the same way. Looked great against LSU but not so much against Tennessee (and both were tough road environments). The Georgia game was an extreme example of this (also, see above). Consistency is an issue. Texas A&M anyone? Manhandles LSU in the second half and look pretty good but get smacked by the Gamecocks (a good team) the following week. How good is Texas? Who can say. So, probably parity among the top 7 but less clear is how elite the top 2 teams are. Could Vandy beat Minnesota or Wisconsin or Illinois? Again, I don't know. It is fair to say, however, that there is a massive drop off in the B1G so I would not be surprised if the bottom of the SEC could handle the bottom of the B1G.

I did not watch the game but saw the highlights during halftime of the Georgia/Ole Miss game. I heard them say some 'questionable decisions' by Mario played a part in the loss and my immediate thought was: checks out. Dude's WAR is -1.5.

If it makes the Ducks feel slighted and play with an edge I'm here for it! Put the Ducks second on the list but with a few return lines in between them and Indiana.

I sometimes wonder if this is due to the how the weather gets colder as the season progresses. A run heavy game makes a lot of sense if you’re going to play 3-5 games in cold weather. So the back end of the season reverse engineers the offense for the front end of the season even though that style makes no sense for that time period You do see B1G type offenses in the SEC but not at the top of the league (maybe to counter the talent disparity?) and I think that the Southeast climate supports a pass oriented style (or at least one that doesn’t treat passing as a second class citizen). The PAC was the same way and so is the Big XII. Both leagues play in climates that are usually pretty temperate for most of the year (I know Kansas/State and Iowa State can be exceptions but I think (a) not often enough and (b) not to the degree - no pun intended - it would allow them to go against the grain of the predominant style of the league) Or not.

I think the time zone disadvantage cuts both ways and this is especially pronounced for west coast teams going east for a 12:30 pm game. The body clock says 9:30 am and that’s not so easy. For any doubters out there, ask west coast NFL teams how they feel about the 1 pm est games. They don’t like them and there can be hits to performance which could make a difference in a high leverage game. If the B1G was in any way interested in being fair (and I think that standard goes out the window when money is also in the mix), teams going east would not have kickoffs past 4 or 5 and west coast teams earlier than 3:30.

Right now the B1G standings are a little crazy and there isn’t really a great mechanism for sorting it out because a number of the top teams don’t face each other. PSU is undefeated with really only one tough game ahead of them (OSU) and that’s at home. Indiana is undefeated with two tough games ahead of them (Michigan @ home, OSU on the road). OSU has three (PSU, Indiana, Michigan) The Ducks have two left (Illinois and Michigan @ Michigan). If OSU wins out and both PSU and Indiana only lose to OSU that’s 3 1-loss teams. If you add the Ducks to that list…how do the tie breakers work? Probably best to win out and not even face this question.

It’s Jeanty in first, second, and third place in the voting. He’s having a ridiculous season (averaging more than 200 yards on the ground per game!!!!) FWIW, makes the game he had against the Ducks less about the D and more about his talent.

It’s dangerous to read too much into this game in terms of room for improvement because a road game +3 hours on a short week after a big win is an atypical scenario. Two areas of concern: (1) Gabriel continues to throw ints on scoring drives late in the half. This can’t continue because it will bite them. Specifically, going up 24/28-0 at the half creates an entirely different game situation. The Ducks O stalled for 15 minutes and the game sat uncomfortably at a 3 score delta. If Purdue scores to make it 21-7 and the offense having lost its rhythm, the early season vibes rear their ugly head. IOW, Gabriel needs to be better at driving the first half dagger home. (2) The D struggled against the run. Part of that was facing a running QB they had zero film on and, to their credit, the DL got better at contain as the game went on. The poor tackling was a major factor which I’ll lump in here vs making it its own concern. Against Wisconsin and Michigan (maybe even Illinois) that becomes a real liability. Again, the result is what matters especially given the variables of the game. Hopefully the Illinois game shows improvement in these areas