CalBear95

These sorts of stories (with Wilner, to me, being the biggest offender) might as well read ‘no news but I gotta get my article quota filled.’ I’ll get interested when there is some hard data. The one piece of information from the article is it looks as if mid-November is set to be a read out of potential revenue numbers so to try and pry UCLA back from the B1G. Until then or some other measurable event it’s just breathless reporting on how much the grass grew since yesterday

I expect a step back next year with a new QB and O-line graduation but the following year could be awesome as I think the D will by then have the talent and depth to allow for DL’s scheme and be fairly nasty. This year the O is pretty crazy but by 2024 I think both sides of the ball are going to be really good So, I think these days will be nostalgic but because it was the beginning of an awesome era

Lanning and crew have to date been pretty good at exorcising old ghosts. In the past Cal’s terrible, no good coach (not going to mention some on this board were actively saying he would be a great hire but… ) would manage to stymie the Ducks. Don’t see that happening this year.

Getting run over and overwhelmed by Georgia was the best thing that happened to this team. Even if it costs OBD a playoff spot this year it is metaphorical money well spent. IMHO, the dividends from that game will pay off for years to come. Frankly, I don’t think they are where they are right now without that game (IOW, even in the counter factual scenario the CFP isn’t happening)

Even if the Ducks beat UCLA, Utah, and USC I don’t see any path to the CFP. The game against UGA basically guaranteed this. Two SEC teams for sure, one B1G and probably the B12. That’s why the NCAA tournament is so great. A really good team could get blitzed in an opening game but if they play well enough going forward they get an invite and have a shot at a title. The tournament allows for a team’s growth over the course of a season whereas with only four spots in CFP that becomes impossible. I’ll be really curious what a move to 12 teams does in terms of scheduling as while the UGA game likely precludes the Ducks this year, the game clearly was a huge growth point for the team. If they win out it’s not a signal of a weak PAC but rather that the Ducks have gotten better each week of their season and aren’t at all the same squad they were in September Would be a lot of fun to see what kind of damage they could do in an expanded tournament

I would put DeBoer ahead of Riley given the state of each program inherited. As the article notes, USC was pretty rich on the offensive side of the ball. Add to that his national name recognition, the hype around his hiring, and his existing relationship with Caleb, his strong transfer performance, while impressive in terms of talent, isn’t unsurprising. Add to that he has done little to nothing to upgrade the defense which has always been a liability with his teams. Also unsurprising (and not in a good way) Contrast that with DeBoer who took over a program that was imploding from the dysfunction of Lake’s debacle of a regime and the associated loss of any recruiting momentum. The fact the Huskies have looked as good as they have is I think fair to say very unexpected. DeBoer has over performed whereas I would say Riley is performing to baseline (which isn’t a negative BTW).

Taking emotion out of the current situation, this (to me at least) an insanely interesting problem/scenario from a business POV. Why? Because the problem is fundamentally one of sequencing/timing which is a question heavily influenced by one’s ability to correctly project the future value/power of new streaming media entities. The beta is pretty large and similar questions have broken some (Larry Scott and his execution of the PAC 12 Network) and made others (Jobs betting on the iMac when he came back to Apple). George K consistently strikes me as a pretty savvy guy and I think he is showing that here in his approach. His B12 counterpart seems to view the scenario’s best answer to be that what comes from ESPN/Fox today is greater than any value the streaming platforms can provide tomorrow. Ergo, act now and reduce his rival conference’s future media revenue take. George K seems to think the opposite or, at least in the parlance of Texas Holdem, is willing to call a sizable bet behind him in order to get more information. For whatever you think of him, you really have to admire his strategy chops and sangfroid. No idea who will be right but I bet this starts showing up in business schools several years from now.

The probability of the team not playing hard has to be - or certainly very close to - zero. The Wazzu game showed there is no quit in the team. Also, it’s a huge game so the team is going to be fired up as it is. In terms of the Ducks getting housed, I don’t see that but CFB is a game of volatility and with each team having a high powered offense anything is possible

All I know is I won’t be watching the game because I can’t handle the stress and anxiety. I believe the Ducks can most certainly beat UCLA but my biggest fear is DTR’s ability to carve up the secondary a la UGA. Maybe I’m living in the pre-Lanning world (e.g., @ Stanford PTSD)

The quote has been removed from a lot of its context so interpreting it is a bit challenging. What was the question being answered and who is the ‘he’ referring to?

This. I think a lot of people here are struggling to accept things as they are and not how they wish them to be. This is common to the human condition and we likely all struggle with this in some aspect of our lives. Players getting a share of the value from the massive amounts of money sloshing through the system of CFB is a good and just thing. Amateurism is a fiction and it’s time we acknowledge that reality and understand who benefits from the continuation of that myth (those raking in the cash). What is broken is how this system is working (I saw an earlier poster say they were in the minority on this view but it seems to me there is universal agreement on this point). The schools are, frankly, 100% to blame for this fiasco. It didn’t take a soothsayer to anticipate SCOTUS laughing the NCAA’s amateurism claim out of court. They had time to prepare for a reality where NIL would exist and yet clearly did nothing with that time. Second, the schools’ greed will continue to get in the way of what is an obviously correct solution: treat the players as employees and allow those employees to unionize. Once that structure is in place it makes it much easier to tamp down on a lot of this craziness. But these schools still want to fight against the tide and whine about their plight because they fundamentally hate giving these high value athletes a dime of money that isn’t fungible (i.e., tuition and room and board). So channel your frustration at the schools as they are in possession of the tools needed to solve this yet steadfastly refuse to use them.

The fiction of amateurism’s nobility serves and was created by those entities who. love making money hand over fist without having to share any of it with those who are actually creating a ton of that monetary value. This is where the sport has been for the last 25 years at least. NIL has zero to do with how we got here and were it not in existence the same rapacious greed of expansion would be taking place. So, FWIW, I’m glad the young men who are the product are no longer pawns to be exploited, chewed up and then cast aside (as many will not play in the NFL but without whom NCAAF could not exist)

One thing I find amusing is the constant refrain that the PNW and NorCal schools ‘don’t bring enough value to warrant a full share of B1G media dollars.’ They do. The problem is that the bottom schools in the B1G are overcompensated in the deal for no other reason than that they happened to be part of a conference whose media value has skyrocketed of late, a phenomenon for which they had little impact to bring into being. There is no way some school making 175% of their actual media value will vote to ‘dilute’ that windfall. Until the power schools in the B1G twist the arms of these schools to get in line, expansion is a ways off. And that’s a huge problem for the Ducks because, as noted earlier, adding CFP revenue onto whatever cut the Ducks get in the PAC’s new media deal, they still are ~$35MM/year short with every school in the SEC and B1G Yikes.

NIL is a good and fair development. College football is a multi-billion dollar business yet those that make it so valuable have been exploited under the justification (pearl clutching more accurately) of amateurism. That ship sailed long ago so much so SCOTUS laughed the NCAA out of court when they made that argument in their position against NIL. It’s more than fair that the athletes profit from their contributions. In fact, to put a finer point on the matter, the pre-NIL system was outright immoral. The NCAA constantly wailed ‘won’t someone’s please think of the student!?!” for reasons that stem purely from sheer greed and absolutely zero concern for ‘academic integrity’ (though, again, the pearl clutching around amateurism was a pretty effective con). It has been a chaotic implementation for sure but the outcome is directionally right. The schools need to go a step further and treat these kids as employees of the university because that helps resolve a bunch of the current NIL madness (as an employee, the athlete assigns their NIL to the university which will blunt the booster pay-to-play). But that won’t happen anytime soon because these schools fear what would happen next: players unionizing and thereby extracting even more equitable compensation. So, the answer to the question: NIL is not to blame. That should be placed at the feet of thee schools and media companies under the banner of greed. NIL is finally getting the people that create a ton of that value a just piece of the pie.

I saw that ‘shaping’ line and almost spit my coffee out stifling a very loud guffaw. My eye was so distracted by that utterly clueless observation that I missed ‘innovative’. That is definitely a…perspective. And these people are the ‘experts’ on college football. I’d say more like lazy writers who simply latch onto a narrative and run with it rather than develop and informed opinion. The best part of the trick? When Mario gets canned ad Miami because of a plodding offensive philosophy this guy and all of his peers will say the problem the AD and boosters should have known better given his track record/history at Oregon (where in a nod to Herbert’s talent he succeeded *despite* Mario’s shackles)

A huge X factor - as many have highlighted - is how the Bruins do on the road not to mention the (un)friendly and non-rainy confines of Autzen. Their RB and QB will be fine as they are experienced in big games on the road. The rest? Dunno. UCLA hasn’t experienced adversity (nor a loud crowd anywhere when you consider what a mausoleum the Rose Bowl is for their home games). At this point I doubt the Ducks have any big game issues given their beat down, recovery, and exorcism of road game demons. They don’t have the recent SOS wins as does UCLA but they are definitely battle tested. Until the Bruins win a meaningful road game, they cannot say the same. I think UCLA answers the bell for a nail biting game but I hope the Ducks can put them to the test early and get a mineral check.

Yes. Yes I am. Whatever sketchiness they showed early seems to be in the past. They just hammered Utah and have a prolific passing attack which plays right into the weakness of the Ducks’ defense. Their 17th year starting QB can run which makes getting pressure a double edged sword. We need to speed up his clock to protect the secondary but can’t risk losing containment by being too aggressive. And because they can pass they won’t be uncomfortable playing in a high scoring game (unlike Utah which relies on them being able to feature the run to grind opposition and win games) We will see how they perform in a hostile environment against a good team but the Bruins look legit. So, yes, quite concerned

My wife is a survivor so I very much appreciate them continually elevating this issue. IMHO, the awareness efforts are never played out.

I agree with Charles but I do think scheme fit and competent coaching plays a big role (Shough as an example). TT looks scared and ultimately that is why I agree with Charles. He is coming in to mop up a game. Against non 1st team competition. What is there to be scared of? My guess is failing which, as tends to be the case, manifests that outcome. Maybe he isn’t a fit which is why he is struggling. But I have real trouble understanding why he is so shaky when he has zero pressure to be a star.

The degree of this Cougin It can be best measured as follows: After scoring to go up 34-22 Wazzu’ win probability was 96%. In ~3 minutes of game time the win probability was 99%. For the Ducks. Let that sink in to how colossal this comeback was.

I’m glad this is their take. If the Ducks win then they ‘over performed’ which feeds a narrative of the team ‘getting better’ and that ‘nobody wants to play.’ That said, their comments about the past three games is proof positive these guys are just tossing out cool sounding data but have zero clue how to read it. The team changed coaches so why do the first two games have any bearing on what the Ducks will do this year? Also consider the second of these three games was after the coach left and they have a totally different QB. Lastly, maybe a young team playing the best team in the country at their place in their first game of the year using a totally new scheme may not be the best way to gauge performance for a team that clearly bounced back. Maybe BYU wins but it won’t be because their ‘past three games’ stat had any predictive value in that outcome

On the first pick, I read the ball as under thrown but I only have the ESPN highlight clip to go off so my perception could be off (or I could just be off )

The choke happened earlier in that game when they didn’t punch it in at the goal line. Wittingham is a really good coach so I was shocked to see him refuse the sneak not once but twice. That set of decisions loomed large as the game went on.

Smart is correct but what he doesn’t say is that DL tried to run a game plan beyond the skill and experience of his talent relative to that delta. That’s where, hopefully, DL will learn. I think the greatest example of blunting the advantage of your opponent to maximize your chances of winning is Ali’s ‘rope-a-dope’ strategy against Foreman. Ali could straight up knock people out but he knew he couldn’t go toe to toe with Foreman. So he didn’t. DL tried to outpunch Foreman and ended up looking like Joe Frazier in that endeavor

This is interesting. I don’t know as much about the nuances of the game like you and Charles (example: I have no idea what a Jack is but I trust you guys do ) so I lean on articles like this to inform my broader view of where the Ducks are today and where they are looking/working to be. This reinforces my opinion that DL does not yet have the personnel to execute what they want. But, as the famous adage says, you fight with the army you have, not the one you want so the results on the field aren’t entirely representative of where this program will be after 2-3 recruiting cycles and the seasoning of the relative youth of the existing roster. Success, even with a scheme that isn’t even you mid-term vision, should help these kids buy in to what DL and staff are building. Maybe this year doesn’t yield a conference championship, it can help lay down the cultural and psychological foundations of a future monster. Be curious to see how DL adjusts the offensive scheme over the season