EastBayDuckDad

This scenario reminds me of 2014 where an unranked Arizona beat #2 Oregon at home. In the stunning loss at Autzen, Oregon made mistakes, allowed long drives and had too many penalties, including a critical roughing the passer on a sack that allowed Arizona to continue the final drive that won them the game. Oregon then went on a 7-0 tear to finish, outscoring teams by 288-163. The CG was a dominant 51-13 Oregon beatdown that was led by the defense shutting down #8 Arizona's 500+yd per game offense (granted with their backup QB) allowing only 25yds total in the first half. That was then and this is now. This 2023 Oregon team has a better defense and a comparable offense to the 2014 version. But as in 2014, the lessons learned from a loss resulted in an epic run to the Pac-12 CG. Fusky has provided the Ducks with hours of game film against common opponents where they survived by the skin of their canines. Opponents that Oregon blew out decisively. Since that first match up in Seattle the mutts have had every potential weakness exposed. DL and staff will have both sides of the ball prepared. Oregon must play smart and error free football, limiting the advantages that UW has at the WR position. The 9.5 line sounds about right given what these two teams have done since the last meeting. The Ducks are the more talented and deeper team overall but cannot underestimate an underDOG but still dangerous Fusky squad that is being told by the pundits and Vegas that they will lose. I'm hoping for a 2014 replay where the Oregon defense controls the LOS and OBD jumps out to a lead that Fusky can't overcome. Don't let them back in with inopportune penalties, iffy coaching decisions and mistakes. And please, oh please, don't let the outcome rest on a kick as time expires. My bet is they won't and the Ducks punch their ticket to the CFP.

Dang. Don't tell me that I now have to root for Alabama. I like Oregon to win the whole thing with that lineup. Nope, I rather the Ducks not face the Dawgs but too much risk that they'd let two SEC teams in. So.... Go Dawgs!

Spot on, Charles. Really interesting that TFerg was so well positioned on the motion making me think that the play had a probability baked in that the LB/Edge would bite on the inside RB fake. The meld on the fake was so fast that it looked to me like Bucky knew he wasn't getting the ball. Masterful play call. While I don't want to see Bo run if he doesn't have to, those zone reads and three pronged RPOs keep a defense guessing about if and when Bo will take off. Justin's runs the last two games of 2019-20 were something DCs hadn't planned on and they were very successful. They put Oregon in the Rose Bowl and then carried them to victory. So if the read is there, Go, Bo, Go!

Fun exercise but I don't believe for a microsecond the CFP committee ices out a one loss SEC champ Alabama if Michigan, FSU, Texas and Oregon all win. That probability was set at 22% and the UGA v Bama spread is only 5 pts, so it's not out of the realm of possibility. Would Bama leapfrog a Texas team they lost to at home (unlikely) or could Texas and Alabama get in with Pac-12 champion Oregon left out? The new CFP rankings coming out tomorrow should clarify this and tell us how much cred Oregon has, but nothing is a lock. Personally I believe Oregon wins and they're in but this is the one scenario that makes me uncomfortable.

Looks like he'll be available...

If: Oregon beats Fusky in Vegas. Dawgs beat Bama in Altanta Michigan beats Iowa in Indy. FSU limps home against Louisville in Charlotte IMHO, the CFP Final Four: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. FSU 4. OBD IMO the only thing that can screw this up (aside from an Oregon loss) is Georgia falling to Alabama and SEC bias putting both of them in and pushing Oregon out.

Charles, thanks for the eye popping 2023 OBD stats. Championship strength on both sides of the ball and in half of the kicking game. If Oregon can minimize the risk from that Achilles Heel (pun intended, sadly) other half of the kicking game, the Pac-12 CG will be a win followed with a highly likely CFP berth.

Coaches Poll. No real bearing on CFP ranking but if reinforced by the AP it'll be a trend that's hard to ignore. 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Fusky 4. FSU 5. OBD 6. tOSU 7. Texas 8. Alabama

All of the 'broken Penix' off color joking aside, Triphib's observation is not only the funniest of the day but IMO pretty darn accurate. He is not the same QB technically (maybe emotionally too) that sqeaked out a win against OBD six weeks ago. Almost all of the Fusky tight wins since the Oregon game have involved someone other than Penix rising (sorry) to the occasion and pulling them to a victory. While I believe that he will play a better game against Oregon than he has the last several opponents, Penix has shown weaknesses that DL, Tosh and crew will be able to exploit. The Ducks are at least one offensive TD and one defensive stop better than UW going into Vegas. Probably more if OBD can play four quarters of complete football. If Oregon's defense can: Pressure Penix into quick decisions and throws with smart blitzing and a double dose of Dorlus and Burch; Keep Odunze from going off with strategic situational double teams and deep safety help as needed; Bottle up the UW run game with sound D-line gap integrity; Keep the short passing game in check with disciplined ILB play; ...then Oregon will win. The major concern I have with the Fusky defense is that they have played well in the 4th qtr. Trice has been effective on the edge and Muhammad has been close to a lock down DB in coverage. But if Oregon runs it's offense like it has the past 6 weeks, gets Bucky and James going (they should as UW is suspect against the run) and Bo distributes the ball, they are two scores better than the Purple Poodles. And please, oh please don't let this game be a three point affair in the 4th. The only place where Fusky has a relative advantage is with their kicker. Oregon's main vulnerability is a potential replay of October 14 and needs to be up by those two scores late in the game.

Congrats, Abūelo Pato! Welcome to the flock. You nailed the defense's ability to hold the Beav's to under two TDs.

No one on the OBD site should delude themselves about Penix being 'broken'. His play has not been as stellar in the last several games as it was before the Fuskys got their skin of the teeth win over Oregon. Maybe he is nursing an injury but don't count him out. They have still managed to win every game even if Penix has not looked great. The Petulant Purple Poodle Piddlers have won on solid defense and their skill players like Odunze continuing to play at a high level even if Penix hasn't. Oregon, particularly the defense, needs to operate next Friday at the level we have seen in the last several games. Like U$C earlier in the year, UW has been just barely getting by, eking out wins over teams they should beat by at least two scores. They nearly got beat at home by a WSU team they should have buried. That doesn't mean they won't play their best against the Ducks. A focused, disciplined Oregon team will expose those weaknesses, but the defense will need to play even better than how they played yesterday. Without Florence it will be a taller task. Manning had a good Civil War with a nice pick, but he was inconsistent and got a stupid PF penalty. The Fusky receivers are at a different level than OSU's and won't suffer fool's lightly. If the front seven can get pressure on Penix and the DBs can keep Odunze and Polk from big explosive plays, it'll be a long day for the Fuskys and a fun one for OBDs. Oregon is the better team, peaking at the right time and should win by two scores. But they've gotta play lights out.

I would maintain it is less the 'yips' and more a technical issue with either his left foot plant or the angle his right foot is hitting the ball. Lewis is consistently pushing the ball right on his FG attempts and even on his PATs. Like a golfer that is struggling with a slice because of club head position at the strike. I'm sure his confidence to hit the ball square is shaken, but if he can correct the mechanics, he'll improve. Maybe it's because there isn't a good alternative but Lanning seems to be willing to stay with him for now. We fans will have to as well.

Bo's eyes were straight downfield to to keep the safeties frozen as he rolled right and then throws across his body 40+ yards for essentially a no look pass to #11. That's a true Heisman moment.

Lewis is just not technically sound and keeps pushing it right. This is going to bite the Ducks sooner or later.

Oregon 41-24 1 TO 2 sacks 375 yds passing The Beavs will try to slow the game down and their run game will have some success. Bo, Troy, Tez, TFerg and Co. will take the top of off the defense but won't finish every drive with a TD. Lewis will actually step up with a couple FGs. The defense will play with their hair on fire, pick off DJU once and get enough stops to let Autzen rock "Shout" at the end of three. No 4th qtr let down this year. Dorlus plays like a man possessed, the center of the D-line does their part and Jacobs and Williams get Martinez to the ground.

I think it was a coaching moment as well... "JPJ, next game I think we'll go with velcro. And Bo says to not hike the ball as far as you threw your shoe"

Great takes, Darren. While Bo getting more yards carrying the ball might have looked better to Heisman voters, his ownership and leadership of Stein's offense has resulted in the juggernaut we are witnessing this year. While I admire Daniels's video game numbers that may very well hand the award to him, he will get killed in the NFL if he tries to play that way. Thankfully Oregon wasn't in the running for the U$C vanity coach lottery that took Riley to La La Land. All the pundits gave the Spoiled Children an A+ for the Riley hire and the Ducks a B- for Lanning. Doesn't look so great for the Trojenz through the retrospectoscope.

All of the above! And I'm thankful for family gatherings, flight delays, ER visits after the morning "touch" football game and bickering over when to take the turkey out. Overcooked turkey, three cousins that brought cranberry sauce and none a decent salad, nephews and nieces that will only eat drumstick and weird 2nd cousin Hubert insisting that everyone try his Rocky Mountain Oyster stuffing. Far left uncle Fred and far right uncle Louie that just can't keep political opinions to themselves. Hearing about Aunt Tillie's colon operation at the table, for the fifth year in a row. Discovering that grandma Ethyl's teeth have gone missing in the mashed potatoes. And having to hide the Chianti from your half-in-the-bag step brother before he gets unruly again. And I'm particularly thankful that this holiday comes only once a year, that the next day they have all gone back home, and that it is time to watch the Ducks kick some river rat butt! Happy Thanksgiving to all!

I suppose, as it would mean the swan song of the Pac-12 represented the one time it was perceived to be as strong as the SEC. Even remotely possible? No, probably not. Oregon needs to have convincing wins over Beavus and then Fusky in the Pac-12 CG to ensure it gets to the CFP as a one loss team. Beating UW in that fashion would effectively knock the mutts out of consideration, just like Oregon needs tOSU or Michigan to win convincingly enough to knock the other out of contention. If Alabama eked out a narrow win over Georgia in the SEC CG, does anyone think the CFP committee wouldn't put two 12-1 SEC teams in and leave a 12-1 Pac-12 champion out? Oregon needs to put the hammer down the next two weeks to just be in the narrative.

Let's face it, the Heisman is largely a QB beauty contest. Unless there is one undeniable winner, like Marcus in 2014 or Burrow in 2019, there will be regional (meaning not west coast) bias in the voting. Victories do seem to count. If Bo continues to play the way he is playing and Oregon wins out, then the odds are he will win it regardless of any gaudy numbers put up by an SEC QB against late season cupcakes.

But it may not be with U$C. Carolina or Arizona maybe.

Arizona is the real deal and I would rather play Beavus and Fusky instead of those guys. Good on 'em. Today turned out about as well as could be hoped. Oregon has it's path set loud and clear. Beat the Beavs then beat the purple pooches. It's that simple.

Oregon 46-16 2 TO 5 Sacks 345 passing yards DL has the 2s and 3s in by mid to late 3rd qtr and eases up on the gas in deference to his friend and former OC

IMHO: Prepared, yes. Worried, no. The narrative before the Utah game centered on how badly they beat the Ducks two years ago in SLC, then the Pac-12 CG, and how the Utes don't lose at home. History doesn't seem to count as much with this Oregon team and specifically the defense. There is nothing magical about Tempe. I lived in Tucson for five years and can personally attest to that. Oregon should dispatch Sparky by at least three touchdowns if the Ducks play anywhere near potential and limit penalties, on both sides of the ball. Oregon has the advantage at essentially every position, skill and otherwise, and better team speed. And that is against a healthy Sun Devil team, which they currently are not. Multiple inside zone runs don't work against ASU (as Chip and UCLA found out), but nearly everything else does. The Ducks just need to execute the offense, let Bo be Bo, play solid defense and not do stupid things.

Oregon's first NC game was with Chip at the helm in 2011 against Auburn. Better defense may very well have won that game. And Dyer's knee was down.