Duck Fan 76

First off let me say that I'm a huge fan of Bo Nix and I have been for awhile. I believe he was put in a very bad situation at Auburn and KD 100% knew it which is why the stars aligned for Bo here at Oregon. What Oregon brought to the table for Bo was a senior offensive line capable of protecting him and an offensive philosophy that put Bo in situations that maximized his throwing abilities and legs. That being said I don't believe Bo grades out very well as a starting NFL QB. The NFL is as different from college football as college is from highschool. Bo's legs keep plays alive when pass blocking breaks down, Bo get's 50% of the credit for the #1 pass protection stat at Oregon. Bo's reads have allowed him to maximize situational plays and we've seen him change plays into first downs after the defense lines up. Bo's touch on the deep ball allowed circus catches from his capable receivers. Bo's vision found tight ends and RB's to turn man press coverage into gains. In the NFL Bo's speed isn't enough to beat elite pass rushers. The NFL disguises defensive alignments making those situational reads as much of a liability as a benefit. Bo's arm lacks the power needed to thread balls into perfectly executed zone coverage. The NFL game speed collapses check down timelines to about 1.5 seconds. Do I think Bo could improve in ALL of those categories to be a good NFL QB? Yes, but I doubt he would get the chance and the reason is he's had a number of injuries that make him taking hits on the scramble a risk every down. He had the #1 pass protection stat in the country and his season ended with a sprained ankle. An ankle he's previously broken in high school and at Auburn. I honestly believe the best thing for Bo is he get's drafted much later as a backup QB for a team that favors mobile QB's but isn't looking for a starter. A worse option but possibly better for his long term career is he's used by a pass heavy offense as a scout team QB to simulate mobile QB's. I could be totally wrong and maybe Bo builds cankles in the off season but I think he would be a great coach but isn't likely to break out in the NFL.

I have a lot of respect for KD telling Moore that he was taking the ASU job. These kids are putting a lot of trust in coaches and programs to help manage their futures and Dante deserved the truth straight from KD. While I don't know if the OC job is a done deal I believe DL will be having frank in person conversations with Moore letting him know that the franchise QB job is pretty much his for the taking and then discussing the new offensive philosophy that he as head coach is looking for in an OC. To me the ultimate question for Dante Moore's recruitment and eventual development is who will be the QB coach for Oregon. I would say it's moderately undesirable to have coaches teaching QB's that don't have a deep understanding of the position. The mental development side of the QB position is critical to success and Dante is already showing that as a strength so he needs a QB coach that can take him to the next level(s). Oregon's goals with Dante Moore should be to have him shatter Oregon passing records and ensure he's a top 5 overall pick for the NFL.

That is pretty much how I see it as well, once the new OC is announced the staff will meet to discuss the 2023 offense and that will be formed out of what pieces are available. There could be a transfer QB in the mix associated with the new QB coach or we could execute with what we have coming out of the spring game. Oregon has proven to be a desirable location for transfer QBs but we will have to wait and see. For my money I think the 2023 team will be a less dynamic offense but a vastly improved defense and likely a similar record (+/- 1-2 wins) as this year. What I hope to see is Dante Moore come to Oregon and the offense focus a bit more on less mobile QB play and a more dynamic but accurate passing attack. The O-line will regress somewhat but there is plenty of talent there to see really good O-line play in situational calls and have plenty of rushing in the mix.

If the UO science department were to "Frankenstein" Vince Lombardi, Tom Landry, Bill Walsh and Don Shula as the new OC... Bo would still be going to the NFL. He got lucky with a sprained ankle, imagine what a serious and permanent injury would have cost him.

Yes BUT! we need to hold DL accountable for program trajectory. I believe DL has what it takes to develop a championship caliber team at Oregon but that belief needs continued justification to not be categorized as blind faith. He needs to show growth in the macro game management which we would observe as better situational play calling by his coordinators. He needs to show growth in player development which we would observe as better situational adjustments by players after the play has been called but the offense shifts formations.

Agreed, the truth is if Bo hadn't got hurt against Washington, Oregon likely wins both games on pure offensive output. While that's amazing it might have been a barrier to real improvement. The result in the playoff wouldn't have been pretty when facing top defenses that also have top offenses. I loved going to games this year but if we want to win a championship it's absolutely time to get SERIOUS about playing defense.

The season feels like a letdown. Let's be honest losing to Washington and Oregon St in the same season is always going to make the season feel much worse than it is. Looking at the season I'm cognizant of two realities of 2022. The first point is that PAC12 play was ridiculously improved this year. This point is a positive for Oregon considering that the season started with conversations all over the country about the PAC's survival. The second point is the stat that puts this season in perspective for me. I'm referring to the Oregon ducks points allowed per game as a true measure of both defense and special teams. Oregon allowed 27.4 points per game which ranks 76th in CFB and 6th in the PAC. We have discussed "ad nauseam" how Oregon was employing the "bend but don't break" defense but Oregon ranked 6th in the PAC for points per game and that isn't B2DB that's just poor defense. If I'm being honest with myself Oregon doesn't deserve the elite moniker this year and it's absolutely because of that stat. As a contrast Oregon's offense ranked 8th in CFB for pts per game and that "IS" an elite stat. Who are the top ten in pts per game? Tennessee 47.3 Ohio State 44.5 USC 42.5 TCU 41.3 Washington 40.8 Alabama 40.8 Michigan 39.8 Oregon 39.7 UCLA 39.6 Utah 39.6 Looking at that list you see the elite teams across the country. Georgia's offense for reference is ranked 12th and is the undeniable best team in the country because they are ranked #1 in points allowed per game with 11.3. Let that number sink in for a second. In support of point #1, the PAC had 5 of the top ten offenses in the country, and that means the PAC is exciting to watch on TV... and that is a good thing outside of LA. I don't normally like the "what if" scenario but what would Oregon's season have looked like if Oregon had a defense as good as Utah? Utah cracks the top 20 for defense at 19th with 20.1 points per game, that's a full touchdown margin ahead of Oregon. What does one extra touchdown buy Oregon for the season? Oregon 34, Washington 30 and Oregon 34, Oregon St. 31 giving Oregon an 11-1 season and a spot in the PACs conference championship. That would be a remarkable change in how everyone is feeling about Oregon right now. So the question remains how does Oregon get to a top25 points allowed per game? Defense is the most obvious area for improvement and we've highlighted Oregon's poor pass defense play all year. Special teams play is also super important and here I'm specifically highlighting the punting team as part of the problem. The coaches have already recognized this and have called it out as an area for targeted improvement all year. With elite punting does DL need to be as aggressive on 4th downs? With a better 3rd down stop rate on obvious passing downs does DL need to be as aggressive on 4th downs? DL called plays all year focused on his teams strengths and punting and pass defense weren't strengths. Do I think Tosh Lupoi is the problem? Not entirely and I think it's mostly been a problem with personnel and development. I expect DL to attack this point heavily in both recruiting and player development. Oregon's defense OFTEN looked confused on assignments when they needed to make on field adjustments. That's a talent and development problem. DL said all year that the coaches need to change "how they teach" to improve the results. I think he said that because he can't say our defense is full of physically talented players that don't understand how to play complicated defense against complicated offenses. The good news is I think the coaches are smart enough to recognize all of this and focus on "building" a great offense with a really good defense and solid special teams. The talent for a really good defense is achievable if we don't singularly emphasize the physical traits in the hopes of dominating the opposition purely with individual talent.

So...... I don't think this would pass the Phil Knight test. Helfrich is a broadcaster and while he took an offensive coordinator job in the NFL it didn't go well and he was let go. I personally really like Helfrich but outside of the "He's a native Oregonian" I don't see how this could work for either side. I think any of the "hire an Oregon alum" names are a bad move for a program of Oregon's caliber. I think Oregon could easily entice experienced OC's into the job from smaller schools, recent coaching changes, etc. The problem with hiring an experienced OC is it dramatically increases the odds of losing your OC to an outside HC job if they are successful. KD is a pretty dumb hire for the ASU job if you ask me. I like KD and I want him to succeed at ASU but I think he's not ready and its not going to go well. I think the firing of Edwards and KD's success at Oregon made this happen this year and that 9/10 times KD wouldn't have gone to a HC position after 1 year of calling plays. DL could hire an extremely experienced OC but can they recruit? Will they stay for a few years? Losing KD is bad luck and the next hire should hopefully give us continuity for the Dante Moore years.

Here are some names I think are possibly in the mix. Outside hire: Joey Halzle - Tennessee QB coach (Previously QB coach at UCF) - downside, never called plays before - upside, he knows how to develop QB's Ben Arbuckle - Western Kentucky Co-Offensive Coordinator/QB coach - downside, limited experience - upside, player development and he could be stable for awhile Brian Ellis - SMU Offensive Coordinator/QB coach (Previously offensive coordinator at Western Kentucky) - downside, mixed results including under Clay Helton - upside he's called plays before Inside hire: Adrian Klemm - Associate Head Coach/Offensive Line/Run Game Coordinator (Previous O-line coach w/ Steelers) - downside, never called plays before - upside, ELITE recruiter and program continuity Junior Adams - Co-Offensive Coordinator/Wide Receivers (Previous WR coach at Washington) - downside, never called plays before and might lose Klemm - upside, good amount of experience including offensive coordinator at Western Kentucky The decision needs to balance needs of the full program and DL isn't likely to be able to call plays for the offense (nor would he be interested). If Klemm or Adams get the job it's a risk on the play calling but that could be mitigated by hiring Brian Ellis as the new QB coach and putting him in the booth to coordinate play calling through Adams or Klemm on the sideline. I think for the program Oregon really needs to get the QB coach right and quickly or we could lose Moore and in general QB development has a huge impact on the program's trajectory. If I was in the room I would take a long hard look at hiring Klemm as the OC and giving Adams the play calling job. That gives both a huge carrot to stay with the program. Then I would hire Arbuckle as the devoted QB coach and have DL encourage the offensive staff to coach cooperatively. It's entirely possible however that KD takes some of the staff with him. I could see him hiring Junior Adams as his offensive coordinator at ASU.

I think that's kind of harsh. The five minute rule for fans coming down to the field is meant to prevent this stuff. I've been in situations where I lost my temper when someone behaved badly at an inopportune time and I'm thankful those moments didn't destroy my life. I agree with you he was wrong and he absolutely should be punished but I don't think summarily dismissing him from the team is the only right call. He's a senior so he's not going to play another season, suspending him from the bowl game is taking away his last game as a Duck and as a CFB player. Discipline tempered with mercy is usually the right call in my experience.

I agree that this opportunity would be risky for KD to turn down. What does KD's offense look like next year without Bo taking snaps? How long would Arizona St sit on a bad hire for KD to get his next shot at the job? Then there's the risk that Arizona St made a good hire and KD would NEVER get a shot at his dream job. I wish him luck in the position, he did pretty well for Oregon in his only year both recruiting and developing the offense. Would you have rather have had another year of MC's offense? I don't have any sour grapes about coaches or players leaving teams, it's how the game is and it would significantly hamper my enjoyment of the game if I focused on how the game isn't leather helmets and cigar smoking coaches anymore. My concern is focused on coach Klemm. I REALLY hope DL hires coach Klemm as the new offensive coordinator. The concern is coach Klemm has never called plays but if he doesn't get the job I think we will lose coach Klemm. I think we WILL lose coach Adams unfortunately if he doesn't get the OC job. I think it's a choice between Adams and Klemm and I think Klemm is the better choice but I absolutely could be wrong. The other obvious option is to hire an experienced play caller but I think we would lose Klemm and Adams in that scenario and that's a pretty big blow to continuity. It really would have been nice to keep the staff together but it's pretty unrealistic honestly as coaches want to develop and get their shot at the top jobs and that is just how it is.

I definitely missed some of the early indicators on defensive play and that was humbling with 20/20 hindsight. The truth is football is one of the hardest games to analyze as the outcomes are so entangled with individual matchups and scheme choices.

I honestly barely register that the name "officially" changed. While that might influence the merchandising of the game and likely the announcers it doesn't change it for me. I asked my buddy last week if he was going to the civil war game and he said yes. He wasn't the least bit confused.

I agree with this statement, I spent a lot of pregame time this season watching Bo warm up next to Ty and Ty has more power in his throws but Bo is more accurate and has better touch. His accuracy and power might have fit a QB in the 80's but not now. Bo is a mobile QB and that will help him find a place as a backup but unless he's got more untapped development he just doesn't have the arm for the modern NFL. I hope he goes in the direction of coaching, he's got a really high football IQ and he does great with leadership.

"Trick" plays are just football plays and most plays have an appropriate situation. We call them trick plays because they look so completely different from a standard offensive scheme... Lineman and QB's catching passes, hiding the play with misdirection or catching the defense off guard by looking like your getting a play sent in. MOST trick plays are designed to take advantage of defenses over correcting or playing undisciplined football. I agree with the frustration expressed in the article as the past two games have caught Oregon's offense getting too cute in bad situations. In general I think this is a significant area of growth for the coaches of situational analysis. Utah is an extremely well coached football team so trick plays designed to confuse their defense or take advantage of over pursuit were jus very low probability of success plays so they were situationally bad calls. Maybe KD thought Utah's emotional performance was going to compromise their performance but that's just not what the reality on the field was. Trick plays work well against Colorado as they are struggling to execute their game plan and that makes them vulnerable to such plays. Trick plays are generally a bad idea in really big games against quality opponents unless you know their is a high percentage habit that you are confidant they will bite on. Utah has no such habits.

100% unless DLs comment about the defense being closer than we think isn't just PR. The 7:30 kickoff isn't great for the offense either, they were practicing a bit more in the cold this week so let's hope that helps keep things in sync. Maybe we'll see some cover-1 disguised as cover-2 with some more effective pass rush but that would be pretty surprising at this point and I just don't think we have the corners ready to pull it off.

Let's hope... because He's a big part of WHY the 2022 offense isn't the 2021 offense.

I'm 70/30 that Bo starts tomorrow (not adjusting for my hopeful delusions). That being said if Ty starts then I think it would be a very tall order for him to win against Utah. The success in the running game is contingent on the deep ball being there and Bo's running abilities as well. Oregon's dimensionality make it hard to defend. If we try and pound the rock for 4 quarters... we are back to Cristobal's offense. Do we really expect Ty to step in and throw deep shots in his first major game? The coaches would try to build up his rhythm and confidence with screen passes and designed runs gradually extending the playbook. That is NOT a winning recipe against Utah. If Ty starts I will shift my gametime focus into looking for positive signs that Ty is making the gains we should expect at the position. He would have the deck heavily stacked against him so I will not hold it against him or any of the players or coaches if we lose to Utah with Bo injured. We've been here before and it's tough but it's the game. If I'm wrong and Ty has a great game and leads the team to victory then I would expect Dante Moore to decommit and head to Michigan St. I have to believe Dante Moore wants to have a really good chance to start his freshman year and if Ty struggles he has that chance, if not he gets that from the Spartan's. Dante's commitment isn't a very big concern to me though, if Ty is the guy to get wins then so much the better as he's already here and he absolutely has talent. Dem's da brakes as they say. I'm still going with 70% chance Bo starts with an 80% chance of beating Utah... so like 56% chance of a good game tomorrow

First let me say that I agree with this statement and I would bet good money that Oregon's staff does as well. Of course they aren't going to destroy team cohesion and come out to say anything even close to that to the team or the media. The good news is even though we started to get comfortable with the idea of Oregon headed to the playoffs this year the letdown and reality isn't that far down the success ladder. I would however like to comment on the defensive coaching topic. I agree with you that DL and the AD are the responsible entities within the program for ensuring they have the optimal coaching staff for the program. That being said what is a coach at Oregon responsible for and what do we hold them accountable for? In game management is an extremely important coaching responsibility as the players don't call their own games. The key idea is that coaches have more experience and better film study that goes with the broader view of the game to best call the situational formations and plays. This allows most of the players not charged with in game adjustments to focus on execution which is a hard enough task for most. Player development is an extremely important coaching responsibility as the players don't know what they don't know and talent only takes you so far. Teaching technique, game instincts(aka play habits), game preparation habits, game knowledge are all components that the coaches are responsible for. Players have a right to demand that their efforts to grow are being optimized by a staff that can guide them to all of the elements previously listed. Recruiting is an extremely important coaching responsibility as the programs future success is absolutely determined by the players coming into the program. Recruiting at a high level isn't a guarantee of success but recruiting at a low level is a great predictor of struggles on the field. In the modern era however the #1 coach skill that determines recruiting is the ability to make personal connections with high school athletes. Players want to play for a coaching staff they respect and admire. They aren't as interested in being "coached" as much as they are interested in belonging to a team that develops them. For the most talented players they want to belong to a team that highlights them enough to get to the NFL. Human development is an extremely important coaching responsibility as the 18 year old athletes leaving home find every kind of trouble is readily within reach at the university level. The truth is LOTS of athletes that get a scholarship have had emotional and behavioral problems and the coaches are responsible for the players growing into responsible adults. To be sure if DL had the ability he would grab coaches that max out all of the above skills but coaches are very much in demand and the number of coaches that do all of the above perfectly are super rare. They also don't stay as coordinators very long (grade DL in the above as a DC at Georgia) as the coaching turnover at all levels is pretty high. When DL assembled his staff he had a list of names with mental grades along each of the above aspects and probably a bunch I didn't think of. He then had to figure out who would be willing to join him and for how much money. Then he had to put together a team that offset each others weaknesses and make a few promises along the way as coaches want to grown and develop as well. So the ultimate responsibility is on DL and of course the AD to optimize the staff balancing tradeoffs to get a functional staff that maximizes the product on the field. I know Tosh Lupoi is taking heat for the defensive play calling and DB development and those criticisms are likely warranted though some of that responsibility is shared around including previous staffs. I know that TL grades out extremely highly as a recruiter and the players trust him. I'm willing to bet that DL and TL talk about this quite a bit as TL wants to develop and get a head coaching job at some point and that means he needs to balance out his portfolio. He's not there yet. The decision of coaching staff shakeups is difficult and soon enough some of those decisions will be forced by the carousel. The coaches have been running the cover-2 with soft zone A LOT! What's truly surprising is how often the cover-2 with soft zone is getting beat on obvious passing plays... which is what it's designed to stop for $@%!'s sake. The crowd at Autzen can see this is a serious problem and I guarantee DL and TL know it's a serious problem. So why haven't they fixed it? Maybe it's not so easy to fix. To quote Donald Rumsfeld, "You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time." DL and TL did player evaluations when they got the job and tested some of those assumptions in the spring game. Remember those big pass plays? MC's staff recruited a ball control defense, looking for the biggest toughest players they could find to snuff the run. Lateral speed was not the priority, size was the priority. Oregon's defense is extremely good at stopping the run even in a cover-2 soft zone which is crazy when you think about it. Man coverage on the edges requires elite speed and reflexes along with nearly perfect instincts. The natural offset to reduce the time DBs have to lock down coverage is an effective pass rush. Great pass rushers are hard to find and similar to man coverage it requires elite speed, reflexes and nearly perfect instincts. It's also really hard to do and cover rushing lanes appropriately or contain a mobile QB. Oregon's defense has its moments and works really well when we are playing less effective pass offenses or the offense is ahead pushing the opposing team to take real risks in the passing game. The red zone is a lesser worry as it negates most of the vertical making the speed mismatch less impactful. It compresses the zones making the zone defense with bigger DB's more effective. So what are the takeaways? I believe Oregon's got the best coaching staff DL could assemble that balances all aspects of the game. The catch is the game he's playing is more than one season. They aren't perfect but they are pretty good and we're still likely to lose some of the staff. The grass isn't always greener applies to all kinds of coaching moves. Oregon's defense is running the formations and plays that balance their strengths (along with the offenses strengths) with their weaknesses and when it works it wins games. It's not effective against elite passing attacks but thankfully those aren't super common even in the PAC. It's also not effective when the offense falls behind and that is just going to happen at times. It was especially hard to see Bennett Williams struggle in coverage as he is a class-A human being and in a fair universe is deserving of more success. He took a really bad angle at a bad time but he can and likely will play better against Utah. To be clear I'm not saying do nothing, I'm saying DL will make adjustments but these adjustments are much harder to make and significant improvement just isn't likely. All things being equal we're sitting as a program in a good place and our jobs as fans are loyalty to the brand, a positive outlook (bordering on delusion) for the future and to occasionally suffer those annoying comments from extended family who worship the Fuskies over Thanksgiving. To me the season's measure has been redemption against Utah as that little adjustment from last season will truly spell out a positive program direction after last years dual embarrassment. Also, for gods sake beat OSU or my brother-in-law will be insufferable.

Honestly, I'm good with that. Officiating should NEVER be the story in any game. It should just be impartial and in the background. When is the last time you noticed there are officials in Olympic swimming? Do you realize we measure first downs with the same method the Egyptians built the pyramids? We could absolutely cover every angle on the field as well as put cameras in helmets and then allow field officials, software, coaches, players, fans... whoever and whatever to point out issues. Just as long as the game keeps moving. The problem is none of the above is going to happen since football maintains similarity from Pop Warner to the NFL. There are rule differences but the methods of officiating are basically the same. Maybe a top down evolution could work where the NFL gets serious about using technology to drive officiating errors to zero and still keep the game moving but I don't think it's likely. Maybe I'm wrong and this is what will happen when Bezos buys the Commanders.

I don't think that's the best strategy honestly, the BIG has similar problems go check their fan sites for clips of crazy ref stuff. Are you aware that there's a massive shortage of football officials for high-school football? That absolutely has an impact on CFB with crews bringing in qualified replacements for retiring officials. I'm a big big believer in cleaning up officiating to improve the game and to do that it's going to require the conference to invest money and time in officiating. We need professional sports officials and the best way to do that is for the professional, college and high-school sports to establish a national organization for officiating. I know there are organizations but they are fragmented. We need a better resourced and MUCH better led organization. That organization should get resources from all levels for the recruiting, training and evaluation of sports officiating.

You summed it up pretty well honestly. I think there's a few lessons for the coaches coming out of this game and I think the film study will show them what they need to do better in calling the game. Given just how young the staff is it's not the least bit surprising that they aren't perfect at coaching. The positive takeaway is to remind ourselves just how amazing the staff has been and how high their ceiling is. I have been worried about over reliance on the cover-2 with the soft zone underneath all year. That defense is the right call when the Ducks are up two scores and they are pushing a balanced opposing offense into a one-dimensional pass attack. UW is among the best if not the best passing offenses in the country. We didn't push them to be one dimensional, they are one-dimensional and we let them play their strength against our weakness. Moving forward the Oregon defense has to have adjustments ready that will be MUCH more effective in obvious passing downs (aka, the entire UW offense). Even a simple cover-2 with man coverage underneath and a better pass rush would have been worth trying. There's a difference in forcing your opponent into making mistakes and hoping your opponent makes mistakes. The offense really only has two challenges as I see it moving forward, they have to play full out as the defense can't get reliable stops and the offense can't work without Bo under center. The reliance on Bo is not just a potential challenge against Utah, OSU and likely USC but it's a HUGE challenge for next year.

The soft zone coverage wasn't getting it done tonight. TL should have made adjustments to the coverage, UW knew exactly how to get their receivers open from the first quarter. Bo going out with his bell rung was scary, I was shocked he came back in with concussion protocols as they are. I don't blame DL for going for it on 4th with Ty but UW scouted him and KNEW he wouldn't be throwing any balls. What matters now is how the team picks themselves up and play against Utah next week.

This is a terrible blow, Travis may be able to recover fully but the timing is absolutely awful as he had decent prospects in the NFL. Teams will evaluate him when he's healthy again (hopefully for the combine in Feb) but teams will wonder if the injury effects play on the field and there's no way for him to prove it hasn't. I wasn't happy about him leaving for USC but I understood the family connection and respected his decision 100%. I really really hope he is able to fully recover and get to the next level.

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