Duck Fan 76

There are serious risks here that could result in underexposure for PAC-12 football and I think those topics are pretty well explored in this thread. I do want to highlight a possible opportunity that could result in a PAC-12 streaming slam-dunk! The question of streaming success for the PAC-12 is about more than just how many streaming customers their are but also a question of perceived value through the streaming product. The PAC-12 network broadcasts to me look like Wayne and Garth are behind the cameras and the commentary is mostly bordering on the inane chit chat. I personally hate watching the PAC-12 network games because of the poor poor poor production quality. I mean just shut up and show me the field. For me, the cost and availability of the service aren't the source of my primary opposition. How could the PAC-12 turn a potential negative into a positive in a way that is unique for our circumstances? One of the challenges of streaming games late is that only the hardcore football fans (or east coast PAC fans) are usually tuning in for the late games that a streaming service could offer so it's a small market. Oregon vs. USC is going to be carried in primetime so we're mostly talking about the Cal vs. Arizona St. games and such. Who outside of those teams fanbase are likely to tune in? How about members of the media and sports gamblers. They may want to consume those games and not necessarily in real time. How can the PAC play up the value of a PAC-12 streaming deal? Go the route of NFL premium+ and make the All-22 film available through the streaming service. That film is the most desirable film for analysts of all kinds and at the college level it's pretty much unavailable. In fact the official sharing of All-22 film between conferences wasn't codified in college football until 2021. If you are an east coast football fanatic and you want to place bets on PAC-12 games watching the All-22 film is a huge advantage. If the PAC were to market the All-22 film via a streaming service I would pay for that at a premium. If ESPN+ get's that service then I would pay for ESPN+ without batting an eye. FYI, ESPN+ does make the college playoff games All-22 film available but nothing else. If Amazon Prime were to offer it, then I could see them using their cloud services to offer not just the All-22 film but with significant real time stats and for the Sports betting world that is HUGE.

There are some interesting names on that list but one thing I've come to expect from DL coaching hires is that the media rarely spot's who he's interested in let alone hires.

This definitely hurts the program but I agree that coach Klemm is deserving of his shot in the NFL. I'm pretty sure he got feedback in the OC interview that he needs more NFL coaching experience if he wants to be an NFL OC. Sure he can get there from college but he would need college OC experience and that's just another move (or two). This move makes perfect sense for the coach and I think he will do well in NE. I'm thinking that he had to have been honest with most of the recruits that this was a possibility but he also had the ability to share some confidence in DL's ability to hire his replacement. This is a very big hire for DL to get right. The O-line has the talent but they need a SOLID position coach to keep them growing. The recruiting capabilities are also super important as the seasons go on... it's going to be tough to find someone with both high level development and recruiting skillsets but DL has done a pretty good job of talent acquisition so far. Talent acquisition is one of the dimensions we should judge his head coaching abilities by so here's hoping he brings his A-game yet again..

I mean Georgia went through Alabama multiple times the past two years... it's true that their OOC games are complete puffs but the road to the SEC champion crown is a pretty high bar. Your point is valid though but I think the Clemson comparison is more apt.

The short answer is it's possible but it's not going to be easy. Breaking it down into offense, defense and special teams I don't think the 2023 Ducks can't look like the 2022 Ducks and make it to the CFB playoff this year. The obvious counter is that we were knocking on the door in 2022 so why do we need to change and the short answer is I think the losses at the end of the season were predictable, more on that below. Starting with the obvious in "very special teams" Oregon was pretty bad in stopping returns and not very good on returns themselves. The field goal kicking was good but not exceptional. There is significant player turnover this year so I think there is potentially more talent for kick/punt returns on both sides of the ball. Talent isn't enough though as the special teams performance underperformed their relative talent on the team. They need to play smarter and more disciplined to see real improvement on both sides of kick/punt returns. Defense has been picked apart all year (pun intended) and I think the consensus view that the inability to pressure the QB was the defenses achilles heel is the correct view. Zone coverages are designed to trap a QB into making dangerous throws, throw it away or get sacked trying to make the read. Oregon's zone was porous and I maintain that it was due to an inability to put enough pressure on the QB to force a hasty throw or an incompletion out of bounds. The QB play in the PAC is just too good to give them the kind of time they had back there and the result was completions into zone gaps all year. The defense was certainly better when they played man-press coverage and brought an extra rusher to get to the QB but even then the pressure struggled to get home. I believe DL has overloaded the roster to force players out of comfortable starting roles and he wants the pressure of competition to create growth. I don't think anyone outside of the QB & RB's have safe positions. For Oregon to be a legitimate playoff team we need to have a very good pass rush and DB's to create turnovers and kill drives. The rush defense was pretty good but schematically they keyed the rush a lot. If Oregon's linebackers can step up then the rush defense will still be pretty good but when a team is playing behind they will look down the field and Oregon needs turnovers and stops to keep the opponent down. Offense was the obvious bright spot for Oregon in 2022 until it wasn't. We all know that Bo getting injured took something away from the offense and cost us two games at the end of the season and the playoff spot. The media is wondering if the Ducks can have that same offense in 2023 without KD. There is speculation that he was the secret sauce but I honestly think he was only part of it. How many games did we see Oregon using the same plays over and over and over and defenses unable to find adjustments? That was a KD design but not necessarily his genius with XO's. KD's offense was creating numbers advantages because Bo had to have a defensive hat on him. Bo's reads were excellent at figuring out where the defense was going to be short and he mostly guided the play to that mismatch on the field. That created significant rushing opportunities and eventually the downfield passes we all love. If the defense decided to play us balanced Bo ran the ball and got the first down. It was an absolute headache for defensive playcalling. Unfortunately putting Bo out in the flats ended up where it was always going to end up with Bo hurt. There is no position in football where an injury has a bigger impact than QB and Oregon had significant challenges without Bo as a legitimate runner. The offensive line play was excellent and they took significant injuries all year without much dropoff. I expect Klemm is going to have this new unit running at a very high level again and that is really saying something. I just don't think we will get to keep Klemm after 2023. The RB's and WR's were also phenomenal and I don't see any performance drop-off there. Ironically the strength of the 2022 offense was our weakness and so we need to have Bo in a position to stay healthy and that means a different philosophy for the offense. For Oregon to make 2023 different we have to take what worked well and fix what didn't. Oregon needs a powerhouse offense to beat quality teams. If the defense makes significant gains but the offense struggles we could lose a lot of games in 2023 and that is the question the media has and why we aren't necessarily being looked at for the playoff. There are real questions about Oregon. What I think we need to see for the 2023 offense is that same numbers mismatch but not sourced from Bo's legs. We need to win the XO's and have the playmakers create defensive imbalance for Bo to read and recognize. That put's Bo in the position to distribute the ball where it can have the maximal effect on a per play basis. His legs will still be there but only in situations where important games are tight and he's the playmaker of last resort (like in a playoff game). This is harder than you might think and is going to be the measure of Will Stein as the new offensive coordinator. If Oregon can meet or exceed the 2022 offensive production (and keep Bo healthy) and the defense can get reliable pressure on the QB then Oregon will be FORMIDABLE in 2023. We need the special teams to be at least quality for Oregon to have a shot at winning a playoff game but we can get there with one loss and the PAC12 championship crown.

ROFLMAO!!! I guess this is possible in the same sense that flipping a coin could land on it's edge... not impossible but SUPER unlikely. That post just made my weekend.

USC is always going to get some of the top So-Cal recruits just because of their location but they *ASSUME* they should dominate recruiting based on location and history. Why would a top tier local athlete choose UO over USC? Simple... they are picking a program that gives them the best opportunity to get to the NFL. Oregon has better facilities, better TV ratings, better coaching and isn't going to the Big 10. USC is getting a serious wake-up call and the haymaker is going to be delivered by Ohio St. In other good news, Texas and Oklahoma playing in the SEC will open even more recruits to the Ducks program... Some athletes are absolutely drawn to play in the SEC no matter what but some definitely realize they will struggle to get exposure there and will seek better opportunities. Now we just need to figure out a way to convince moms and girlfriends that Eugene is where they want to be.

Hahaha, great point... I would make that drive from midnight to 8AM only especially the first bit out of DC.

Honestly, geography matters. South Carolina is down I-95 from his Mom and Dad and Eugene is a long flight. We are absolutely going to lose some of these. In the era of transfer portal it's also good to remind ourselves that recruitment doesn't end until eligibility runs out... It's still a good day for the Ducks and even better a crap day for USC!!!!

I totally agree, this may indicate that he's waiting to see where some of the other prospects sign to see how it might effect his options. Unfortunately the only factor that I can think of that might fluctuate is NIL. It's also possible that he's weighing distance and he's truly torn over where to commit. Let's hope it's distance and not $$$.

So I know Harbor is young but I think he's a bit more mature than the average 5* recruit. What I mean is he's thinking about his recruitment from all angles and he realizes that his "Brand" is an important commodity. He's indicated multiple schools have made his final list several times but that list has shifted over the year and he's been consistent in listing his priorities for selection as academics, athletics and track. Why has he taken so long to decide let alone narrow his final list? Simple, Buzz is good for business. He's got a vested interest in having more football fans know his name and his potential. I think Oregon is a real contender and Maryland is the default stay close to home choice. Michigan has world class academics and he has family in the area. These schools mostly makes sense with South Carolina as an outlier. USC was one of his listed schools but it doesn't tend to come back up very often. What I believe is if he selects Oregon it's because he's prioritizing the 2024 Olympics and is considering a long term brand association with Nike across track and football. Football is certainly important to him but it's clearly not the apex decider which is why he dropped the SEC schools and Miami from his list after the summer. He knows his athletic gifts are in the 0.1% and his work ethic and intelligence are considered phenomenal. As its been said on the forum before we would take him no matter what his constraints are but I believe if we get him he will be pushing very hard on track prep all next year. After the 2024 Olympics I think he will focus his path based on those results.

"It's not me, it's you..." He just needs to find the OC that can execute his vision of super predictable smash mouth football.

Great article David! I think you covered all of the high points very well but I would throw in one extra wrinkle to the play calling situation and that's compensation. Every quality coach wants to progress, just like the players. Tosh is the DC here at Oregon because he wants to continue to grow his skillset. As you said in the article he's an excellent recruiter, position coach and motivator and I also believe he has a high football IQ but as you pointed out this doesn't always mean he can excel as a situational play caller. Tosh needs to develop as a playcaller to progress as a coach and that I think is part of the compensation that brought him to Oregon. Pulling playcalling away from Tosh could cause him to look for other opportunities to grow as a playcaller. That puts DL in a bit of a tough spot as the HC as he needs effective defensive playcalling for Oregon to win but he also needs Tosh to help him build the defense to win. DL can't and shouldn't do it all. Ultimately one of the major responsibilities of the head coach is developing his coaching staff. I believe him when he says playcalling is a combined responsibility but as you said, someone has to react at the speed of the game and make critical changes to effect the game. Ultimately what we should expect is that DL sets an attainable standard for players and coaches and holds them to that standard. He needs a get well plan for the defensive playcalling and DL calling plays is the worst kind of bandaid and will sink the program in the long run. He needs to put in the work with the defensive staff to get this right. If he has a coach that he believes can't meet the standard then he has to have an honest discussion about that and possibly look for a replacement. I think TL is a net asset for the Ducks by most measures, if the program can correct the situational play calling then the sky is the limit. If the play calling can't be corrected DL has to make adjustments. One thing is for sure, I don't really know any other way for the staff to learn playcalling then by doing it.

So... people forget that what looks lucrative in the short term might not be so in the long term. Case in point PAC-10 media rights: Pac-10 settles TV deal with ESPN and Fox, reports say WWW.ESPN.COM The Pac-10 has agreed to a 12-year television contract with ESPN and Fox that will more than triple its media rights fees and be the most valuable for any conference in college sports. Everyone forgets that when Scott inked that deal the PAC's media rights were worth more than the SEC's... the problem was it was a long term deal and the other conferences were able to get even bigger contracts later leaving the PAC in the dust. UCLA and USC have left the PAC before and that didn't work out then either. UCLA will be the biggest loser here and USC isn't going to be able to regain So-Cal recruiting dominance so they will not be able to compete with Ohio State which means losing their conference year after year after year... the LA market doesn't love a team that loses.

So compare that crap show to what's been written about NIL at Oregon... "Some of the brightest and most influential sports marketing minds around have helped determine the structure and direction of this Oregon-centric collective. That has enabled Division Street, in the words of one industry source, to “operate at a high efficiency” and foster long-term sustainability. Nike co-founder Phil Knight joined up with a group of alumni to launch Division Street in the fall to help Oregon athletes monetize their brands. The collection of top minds involved is virtually unrivaled. Former Oregon star women’s basketball player Sabrina Ionescu is the chief athlete officer and senior advisor. Rosemary St. Clair, former VP/GM of Nike Women, is the CEO. Rudy Chapa, former VP of sports marketing at Nike, is the chairman of the board. Division Street also enlists a creative company led by former Nike and Jordan brand executives. ”They are the model,” the source said. “They are built by the smartest sports marketers, so follow along. Everything they are doing is a lesson everyone can learn from.” Source: The top 5 most ambitious NIL collectives WWW.ON3.COM Ten months into the ever-evolving NIL era, here are On3’s rankings of the most ambitious donor-led collectives. Trust us: Each is impactful. So from what I can see NIL organizations come in two flavors. 1) Division St. essentially follows the sports representation model where athletes are clients and the collective markets the athletes NIL for legitimate marketing functions and 2) the private donations model... fans (rich and poor) donate money to the collective and the collective pays said money to the athletes for "NIL". One of these is a legitimate activity and the other isn't... one has well credentialed experts guiding the business and the other has suitcases of cash and cocaine... It's good to be a Ducks fan!

This subject of 5* star athletes always brings to mind one player above all others... Todd was essentially a Eugenics project from his dad to create the ultimate football player. It was beyond a disaster. The Troubled Life And Career Of Todd Marinovich (Complete Story) WWW.PROFOOTBALLHISTORY.COM Todd Marinovich was bred to be an NFL quarterback. However, Marinovich's unstable personal life would eventually crash his NFL career.

Is this it? Did You Hear The USC-Oregon Conspiracy Theory? – InsideUSC with Scott Wolf INSIDEUSC.BLOG It is really beneath USC that during the radio broadcast it peddled a conspiracy theory that with Utah defeating Washington, the Pac-12 officiating crew was going to do what it could to make sure USC... Or maybe this is it? Will the Pac 12 officials be UCLA's 12th man tomorrow? | On3 WWW.ON3.COM I'm leaving for the Rose Bowl at noon tomorrow. I wish the officials for the game were leaving from the east coast sometime today. USC has received more penalties this year than 126 other FBS... I don't think I can find it, sorry.

Mic drop...

"... Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey, goodbye! ..." ... every touchdown we score!

The number that really stands out to me is the 7 sophomores. That should be mostly the #6 rated 2021 class led by Suamataia and Ty Thompson. Other notables in that class include, Troy Franklin, Donte Thornton, Keith Brown, Moliki Matavao, Terrence Ferguson, Seven McGee, Jackson Powers-Johnson, Byron Cardwell, Jeffrey Bassa, Branden Buckner... What a mix of impact players and transfer portal exits... This is the effect of the portal I think... trading sophomores for juniors and seniors in the portal. That really impacts player development as you are only getting a small window to elevate their play or they leave. How many of the 41 freshmen will Oregon keep until they are sophomores?

I look at the week 13 break as an opportunity for them to change all of the signage from PAC to BIG since they are right, it's not a break! It's an acceleration on the divorce.

The content of this article makes me want to vomit violently... November 11th 2023 is circled on my calendar as the date we kick these guys out of the PAC. It's not going to be a nice "see you later" or "can't wait to play you in the Rose Bowl" ... No! It's going to be Venom and Enmity for this program till the end of time. After Nov 11th we will continue the beat down by forever pulling the most talented athletes out of southern California so the USuCk fans will have to see their kids and grandkids rocking Oregon gear till their dying days. Mature adults can admit the truth: Pac-12 favored Oregon over USC TROJANSWIRE.USATODAY.COM If you were #Pac12 commissioner right now, you would have catered to #Oregon — not #USC — in crafting your football schedule. Even @Ducks_Wire would agree.

We've been having this discussion on and off the forum for a long time. This article from the Athletic directly addresses the core of the recruiting stars question. I thought it had some great comments by those most in the know. BLUF: Defense is about athletes and Offense is about scheme... so recruiting great defenses is usually harder than great offenses. The BLUR at Oregon highlighted that as Chip didn't have the talent that last years roster had but he certainly found success by putting defenses into uncomfortable positions. To see real improvement at defense, Oregon is going to have to put some serious work in on recruiting and development and that will take time. The good news is Oregon has the ability to pull talent in, can we get enough for a top tier defense to get the Natty? A scouting oddity: Why the disparity in recruiting stars for NFL offensive, defensive studs? THEATHLETIC.COM On this year’s NFLPA All-Pro Team, the average CFB recruiting ranking of offensive players was 2.0. For defense, 4.5. Why?

I think it's hard to predict what is going to happen in CFB next year and near to impossible to predict what will happen in 10 years. To be clear paid sports writers have a financial incentive to speculate in a proactive and engaging way about stuff they can't possibly reliably predict so I read the points but take it with a block of salt. It's not a huge leap to predict CFB is a changing landscape... we have more than a few very active factors constantly reshaping the game/industry. As for the viability of the PAC and the emergence of super conferences? Maybe, but the law of averages would indicate the most likely outcome is something less extreme but the possibility for an extreme outcome is non-zero. To me it's a question of talent distribution and financial parity in the programs. If a balance point emerges then super conferences aren't sustainable or even likely. If the motivation of athletes is to go exclusively to a top ten list of programs then super conferences could actually happen. Currently the talent distribution is more varied than that but 3-4 schools have managed to leverage the system to get a statistical advantage in talent acquisition. Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia... you know the drill. There is one really important issue and that's "demand destruction". Is it good for the financials of CFB to see talent consolidate in 10 schools? Nope, the overall level of interest and expenditure in CFB will plummet and that would be bad for everyone, even the top 10 schools. For CFB financials to be healthy and growing the sport needs broad interest and national markets. This is exactly why the NFL enforces parity through the draft and salary cap. The Yankees are bad for baseball... I'm not going to waste anybody's time by speculating on where CFB is headed in 10 years but I will say that my enjoyment of Oregon football would diminish if Oregon switched conferences. I wouldn't abandon my team but naked cash grabs like that would scratch at the back of my brain like the MLB strike did. I'm positive Oregon can win and win big from inside the PAC. I mean if Oregon really wanted to be a top 3 School they could open a satellite campus in the south east and the Ducks could get all of those 5* linemen to stay close to home... I mean where does it end? Do the Ducks just become an NFL expansion team?

This is concerning for sure... hopefully Oregon's new coaching contracts will take some of the pressure away but it's only a matter of time before we lose Klemm. Good programs have coaching turnover... if we're lucky we keep DL in the seat and the vision remains constant but we're going to constantly lose coordinators and position coaches.