Jon Joseph Moderator No. 1 Share Posted May 21, 2023 Much too early? Yes. Using 2022 Won-Loss Records to determine Strength of Schedule (SOS) for the 2023 obvious Final 4 contenders? Dubious, I know. Nevertheless, let's first look at SOS for the putative contenders using this method 9. Ohio State 21. Texas 31. Alabama 35. Clemson 37. Utah 55. Washington 58. Michigan 63. LSU and Georgia are tied. 78. FSU 90. Penn State 97 Oregon 98 - USC Next, let's see how Oregon's 2023 opponents are SOS ranked - Portland State - Not ranked at Texas Tech - 14 Hawaii - 123 Colorado - 29 at Stanford - 15 Idle at Washington - 55 Washington State - 113 at Utah - 37 CAL - 12 USC - 98 at ASU - 20 Oregon State - 63 Based on its SOS (97) the Ducks' schedule is not that daunting but we all know that in 2023 the Pac-12 is deep and will be competitive and 3 road games versus teams ranked in the preseason top 25, playing in Lubbock, Seattle, and Salt Lake City and 2 in Eugene against a closing stretch of USC and Oregon State separated by an always dangerous trip to the desert, will not be a bed of feathers. So, here is my far-out Final 4 prediction. Rose Bowl - 2. Penn State versus 3. LSU Sugar Bowl - 1. Georgia versus 4. Oregon Please feel free to disabuse me of this notion and please, do not take this to the bank. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven A Moderator No. 2 Share Posted May 21, 2023 On 5/21/2023 at 10:45 AM, Jon Joseph said: do not take this to the bank. Too late Jon, put all my marbles in the bitcoin account in Silicon Valley Bank. 4 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyToBeADuck No. 3 Share Posted May 22, 2023 JJ, barring injury, the Ducks should make the CFP. Champions handle what is in front of them and conquer their roadblocks. The schedule sets up nicely for a #4 spot. Not sure Penn State handles both Michigan and tOSU. However, the Nittany Lions have the experienced talent to do it. Hopefully, an upstart team or 2 can pull off some upsets along the way. A 2 loss BIG Champ will go along way to sending a 12-1 Duck team to a rematch with the Real Dawgs. In looking at the Ducks first 5 games on the 2023 schedule a 5-0 start is very possible. TT will be a hard fought victory. The other 4 should be over before halftime. TT should get as many first team snaps as possible. Bo should never see the field in the 2nd half. And TT will be better prepared if called upon. The Duck D will have many an opportunity for chaos and to cause turnovers. Give the O some short fields and easy scores. 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 4 Share Posted May 22, 2023 I think Penn State loses in Columbus but Penn State took tOSU deep into the 4th quarter last season. PSU has been blown out recently in Ann Arbor so it's good to have the Wolverines coming to Happy Valley for a white-out. PSU has lots of guys back including a very good QB in Allar and should be nasty on D. And FWIW a 98 SOS instead of 9 for Ohio State and 58 for Michigan is nice. PSU's crossover games are home vs Illinois and Northwestern. I don't think Illinois which is a developmental program and had a lot of seniors last season will be as good as last season. At Iowa will be tricky but I don't think the Hawkeyes have the firepower to hang with Penn State. PSU only has 4 road games with 1 at Maryland in a semi-rivalry game and 1 at Rutgers. Its toughest OOC game is versus W VA in the opener at home. The other 2, Delaware and UMass also at home. I like the schedule. I think PSU defeats whatever team comes out of the West and finishes 12-1 and joins 13-0 Georgia, 12-1 LSU, and 12-1 Oregon. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDuck No. 5 Share Posted May 22, 2023 1 Georgia 2 Oregon 3 Florida State 4 tOSU Championship Game: Oregon 30, GA 28 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 6 Share Posted May 22, 2023 On 5/21/2023 at 11:38 PM, JDuck said: 1 Georgia 2 Oregon 3 Florida State 4 tOSU Championship Game: Oregon 30, GA 28 This would be most fine. I see LSU defeating FSU in the opening game and Clemson will not be an easy out for the Seminoles. FSU is a team that I believe is this season's A+M although FSU will make a bowl game. 9-3. Ohio State has the WRs and RBs but does it have a pitcher in the class of Fields and Stroud? At Notre Dame and at Michigan will be very tough games for the Buckeyes and in the final year of the Final 4 two strikes and you're out. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisjenn99 No. 7 Share Posted May 22, 2023 On 5/21/2023 at 12:45 PM, Jon Joseph said: So, here is my far-out Final 4 prediction. Rose Bowl - 2. Penn State versus 3. LSU Sugar Bowl - 1. Georgia versus 4. Oregon Please don't make us face them again! 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ktmguy2018 No. 8 Share Posted May 22, 2023 Wait, to read all the you-dub fans, all four playoff spots are going to the huskies....so I'm not sure how anyone else is getting in. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goutes18 No. 9 Share Posted May 24, 2023 I like the optimism! I think the Ducks are well positioned to make a run. Really glad Utah is the underdog in the conference race again - we don’t perform well as the favorite. We have adopted a Ted Lasso quote at our house for the Utes - “It’s the hope that kills ya” I am gong to call it now - uw is this years A&M. Sorry fuskies - not a believer! 1 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
