NJDuck Moderator No. 1 Share Posted May 24, 2023 The timing of it all makes perfect sense. No, not that timing. Not the timing of the Pac-12's media rights deal, which has been extended far beyond what was originally forecast and might not be completed for many more weeks. Instead, we're referring to the timing of on-the-record comments about the negotiations by those in the know. The utterances fit perfectly within the larger saga. The conference held its annual double-shot of spring meetings in the first half of May. The athletic directors gathered in Scottsdale (with coaches) during the first week, then came the quarterly board meeting of university presidents on May 15 in Seattle. Both agendas included updates from commissioner George Kliavkoff on media rights negotiations and conference expansion. Kliavkoff hasn't spoken publicly about the topics for six months, and that didn't change following the May meetings. But two athletic directors and one president addressed the situation, thus providing fans and media members alike with enough crumbs to create a path through the silence. Let's dig in. Pac-12 media rights: How to interpret a recent series of public comments by campus officials WWW.KSL.COM Two ADs and one president have spoken about the negotiations. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 2 Share Posted May 25, 2023 Don't give up the good ship Pac-10. The ship may be listing but the pumps are at work. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 3 Share Posted May 25, 2023 One thing I came across was that SDSUs buyout to leave the Mountain west doubles by July. So some announcements need to happen sooner than later by the look of it. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus No. 4 Share Posted May 25, 2023 Wonder if there is any truth to this? SW AIM SHOW@GSw aim · 9h BREAKING: Every school in the #Pac12 was made aware on Monday that their Final TV package will be roughly $20M per team, which is far below the #Big12 and $5M below the minimum number that most of the P12 teams wanted to stay. But WAIT...there's more. (1/2) SW AIM SHOW@GSw aim · 9h (2/2) The #B1G will take in the #Ducks and #UDub if any of the #Pac12 schools leave for the #Big12. I can neither confirm or deny that they'll take #Stanford and the #CalBears, but certainly checkibg. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
noDucknewby No. 5 Share Posted May 25, 2023 (edited) On 5/25/2023 at 8:18 AM, Rufus said: Wonder if there is any truth to this? SW AIM SHOW@GSw aim · 9h BREAKING: Every school in the #Pac12 was made aware on Monday that their Final TV package will be roughly $20M per team, which is far below the #Big12 and $5M below the minimum number that most of the P12 teams wanted to stay. But WAIT...there's more. (1/2) SW AIM SHOW@GSw aim · 9h (2/2) The #B1G will take in the #Ducks and #UDub if any of the #Pac12 schools leave for the #Big12. I can neither confirm or deny that they'll take #Stanford and the #CalBears, but certainly checkibg. Hard to say how much validity this has, but it does not seem beyond the realm of possibility. $20 million/year is not enough to keep the P12 together. Maybe with a very short-term contract and uneven revenue sharing this might work for one contract cycle, but it would be the beginning of the end. That said, I just don't see how the demise of the P12 would benefit ESPN. Do they really want to go all-in on the MWC for the west coast evening slots? Unless they're throwing in the towel, I just don't see them ceding the entire west coast to Fox. Edited May 25, 2023 by noDucknewby Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 6 Share Posted May 25, 2023 On 5/24/2023 at 9:37 PM, David Marsh said: One thing I came across was that SDSUs buyout to leave the Mountain west doubles by July. So some announcements need to happen sooner than later by the look of it. I have no idea why SDSU does not give notice today. If the Aztecs withdraw notice the MW will kick SDSU out of the MW and lose the San Diego market. I don't think so. Unfair dealing? Maybe but when have college presidents ever litigated other than via failed NCAA filings? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDuck Author Moderator No. 7 Share Posted May 25, 2023 On 5/25/2023 at 11:18 AM, Rufus said: Wonder if there is any truth to this? SW AIM SHOW@GSw aim · 9h BREAKING: Every school in the #Pac12 was made aware on Monday that their Final TV package will be roughly $20M per team, which is far below the #Big12 and $5M below the minimum number that most of the P12 teams wanted to stay. But WAIT...there's more. (1/2) SW AIM SHOW@GSw aim · 9h (2/2) The #B1G will take in the #Ducks and #UDub if any of the #Pac12 schools leave for the #Big12. I can neither confirm or deny that they'll take #Stanford and the #CalBears, but certainly checkibg. I am with you on this, not sure. Of course as we all know, there are many articles out there on the demise of the Pac-12. Like the four corner schools going to the Big 12 and Oregon with Washington going to the Big 10 due to failed media rights deal. I read the article Tramel put out on Colorado which is this one below that the SWAIM show was talking about. As silent as the Pac-12 have been on the media rights deal, hard for me to believe that all these rumors are true at this point. I would think the likes of Canzano, Wilner or Bodkin which is closer to the heart beat of the Pac-12 would be putting the news out there if any of this is true. But again, hard to know what is true and what isn't at this point. What I hope is Oregon will make the right decisions moving forward. Hopefully voicing their demands, getting what they want before signing any 'short term' contract with the Pac-12. Tramel's ScissorTales: Is Colorado close to leaving Pac-12 for Big 12? Signs say yes WWW.OKLAHOMAN.COM A Big 12 source says Colorado is close to leaving Pac-12, and signs mount that the Pac-12 is more vulnerable than ever Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 8 Share Posted May 25, 2023 On 5/25/2023 at 1:04 PM, noDucknewby said: Hard to say how much validity this has, but it does not seem beyond the realm of possibility. $20 million/year is not enough to keep the P12 together. Maybe with a very short-term contract and uneven revenue sharing this might work for one contract cycle, but it would be the beginning of the end. That said, I just don't see how the demise of the P12 would benefit ESPN. Do they really want to go all-in on the MWC for the west coast evening slots? Unless they're throwing in the towel, I just don't see them ceding the entire west coast to Fox. I believe $20M will be short of the number by at least $10M. In today's depressed media world are there any media entities willing to rush in and fund Pac-10 school's relocation? ESPN needs Left Coast late-night Eastern time zone kickoffs and Fox has elbowed ESPN out of the LA market. All of these outsiders are more than willing to spend other people's money. Conferences do not write checks. Media companies and most likely streaming companies write checks. Most of these gurus would fail Economics 101. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 9 Share Posted May 25, 2023 (edited) On 5/25/2023 at 1:10 PM, NJDuck said: I am with you on this, not sure. Of course as we all know, there are many articles out there on the demise of the Pac-12. Like the four corner schools going to the Big 12 and Oregon with Washington going to the Big 10 due to failed media rights deal. I read the article Tramel put out on Colorado which is this one below that the SWAIM show was talking about. As silent as the Pac-12 have been on the media rights deal, hard for me to believe that all these rumors are true at this point. I would think the likes of Canzano, Wilner or Bodkin which is closer to the heart beat of the Pac-12 would be putting the news out there if any of this is true. But again, hard to know what is true and what isn't at this point. What I hope is Oregon will make the right decisions moving forward. Hopefully voicing their demands, getting what they want before signing any 'short term' contract with the Pac-12. Tramel's ScissorTales: Is Colorado close to leaving Pac-12 for Big 12? Signs say yes WWW.OKLAHOMAN.COM A Big 12 source says Colorado is close to leaving Pac-12, and signs mount that the Pac-12 is more vulnerable than ever This is Buffalo apples. Clean up on aisle 10! What in the heck are the sources of this garbage? If Canzano, Wilner, ESPN executives, or the Pac-10 isn't reporting I am not paying attention to the Chicken Little's who have no vested interest other than to create clicks. It's a long off-season. For goodness sake, the B1G agreement took 9 months to negotiate and it turns out that due to Warren's incompetence, the deal is not done yet. Where's the article on UCLA having 2nd thoughts and returning to the Pac? The article on SC buying a pig in the poke. Bullies love to target people and entities that are down. Edited May 25, 2023 by Jon Joseph 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 10 Share Posted May 25, 2023 As much as I want the Pac-12 to survive and we all prosper....I know Oregon will be fine regardless of where they end up. Dan Lanning is making sure of that on the recruiting trail of HS players, portal transfers and coaches. But if I was an Oregon State or WSU fan and hearing that news? I probably wouldn't have a bowel movement for a week. 2 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus No. 11 Share Posted May 25, 2023 The conspiracy theorist in me wants to believe that ESPN does want the PAC 12 to lose teams. It wants the 4 corners and maybe SDSU in the Big 12 and have the Big 12 be the After Dark games. SDSU not in the PAC 12 yet leads me to believe one of two things…. 1. SDSU fears the PAC will lose teams and is weighing the possibility of joining the Big 12 instead. Or, 2. Some in the PAC may not want to invite new members because of their own personal agendas, similar to USC stopping the invitation of several Big 12 schools to join the PAC in 2021. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus No. 12 Share Posted May 25, 2023 Here is this guy posting again… SW AIM SHOW@GSw aim · 10m There was an informal meeting with #Big12 execs on Wednesday and the BIG PLAN is for twenty teams with four West of the Rockies and four in the EST time zone. And told "A lot will happen in June." #BuckleUp!! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 13 Share Posted May 25, 2023 On 5/25/2023 at 12:54 PM, Rufus said: Here is this guy posting again… SW AIM SHOW@GSw aim · 10m There was an informal meeting with #Big12 execs on Wednesday and the BIG PLAN is for twenty teams with four West of the Rockies and four in the EST time zone. And told "A lot will happen in June." #BuckleUp!! 1 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyToBeADuck No. 14 Share Posted May 25, 2023 I thought the PAC broke up like last Wednesday or the Wednesday before when Colorado left for the BIG 12? Remember some clown guaranteed that CU was going to announce it the next day. That sure thing fizzled right out. I suppose any of these things are possible. So time will tell. If CU was in fact headed back to the big 12, there is no way, absolutely no way the big commissioner could keep it a secret. His ego is too big. Once again none of these people are in the room. Ask your self this: Who do you think is in the room and would have first hand factual info? Who is the negotiator? GK, the 3 PAC Presidents on the committee. Bloggers, Podcasters and big 12 know it alls. Well we can just expect the worst possible outcome and be suprised when the outcome is different? More questions than answers, for sure...... 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDuck Author Moderator No. 15 Share Posted May 25, 2023 On 5/25/2023 at 3:34 PM, Rufus said: The conspiracy theorist in me wants to believe that ESPN does want the PAC 12 to lose teams. It wants the 4 corners and maybe SDSU in the Big 12 and have the Big 12 be the After Dark games. SDSU not in the PAC 12 yet leads me to believe one of two things…. 1. SDSU fears the PAC will lose teams and is weighing the possibility of joining the Big 12 instead. Or, 2. Some in the PAC may not want to invite new members because of their own personal agendas, similar to USC stopping the invitation of several Big 12 schools to join the PAC in 2021. What's interesting about the Big 12 adding more teams. Where is the money going to come from? Will ESPN or FOX belly-up with more money if they add more schools? Jon made a good point, Conferences don't have the money, they need media partners to pony up. Unless media partners bring more money to the table, the more schools you add, the less each school will receive. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 16 Share Posted May 25, 2023 On 5/25/2023 at 3:34 PM, Rufus said: The conspiracy theorist in me wants to believe that ESPN does want the PAC 12 to lose teams. It wants the 4 corners and maybe SDSU in the Big 12 and have the Big 12 be the After Dark games. SDSU not in the PAC 12 yet leads me to believe one of two things…. 1. SDSU fears the PAC will lose teams and is weighing the possibility of joining the Big 12 instead. Or, 2. Some in the PAC may not want to invite new members because of their own personal agendas, similar to USC stopping the invitation of several Big 12 schools to join the PAC in 2021. Rufus, good take but I seriously doubt that ESPN wants to pay any more $ for B12 inventory. If it shared the cost at 50% with Fox which is the current arrangement that would mean an additional $70M a year at a time when ESPN, beginning in 2024, has to pay another $140M a year in SEC media rights for Oklahoma and Texas. And I doubt that Fox with the LA market in hand will pay a dime more for B12 inventory. ESPN needs Left Coast inventory for the 7:30 and 10:30 time slots. I'll believe ESPN is not interested when I hear from a Pac-10 HQ or an ESPN HQ source. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus No. 17 Share Posted May 25, 2023 On 5/25/2023 at 5:38 PM, NJDuck said: What's interesting about the Big 12 adding more teams. Where is the money going to come from? Will ESPN or FOX belly-up with more money if they add more schools? Jon made a good point, Conferences don't have the money, they need media partners to pony up. Unless media partners bring more money to the table, the more schools you add, the less each school will receive. I think I remember reading the Big 12 has a clause in their contract with ESPN regarding the addition of teams. Not sure about FOX though. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyToBeADuck No. 18 Share Posted May 25, 2023 NJ Duck solid points.... It may be in espn's best interest for the PAC to breakup. That will free up the revenues ear marked for the PAC to pay elsewhere. Still leaves espn completely out of the west coast and late night viewing. Fox will own the west coast, in some fashion. Personally, the PAC is missing out on a potential profit center thru the CW. They just need to think outside the box. ( Not a PAC strong suit) So the CW and LIV golf have a unique media arrangement. LIV is responsible for all the production and promotion work and costs. The CW provides the linear platform to their 140 million potential viewers. ( Got that number from my study of the CW/LIV agreement. The CW pays NO media rights fee. LIV and CW split the advertising money. Its no risk for CW and a platform for LIV. I am confident if within the brief conversation with GK/CW if this was mentioned the PAC ran off in the opposite direction as fast as they could. But consider this thought. The PAC 12 Network has the production facilities, staff, field teams and broadcasters already in place. They did a darn good job and in many cases their broadcasts were better than espn. What they lacked was eyeballs and exposure. 15 million viewers was too small to generate big dollars because most advertisers were regional. However, the CW offers 140 million potential linear viewers. National exposure with bigger numbers means National Advertisers and bigger payouts. The PAC could expand to the east, add teams and cover 3 time zones. Potential Noon CST to 7:00 pm pst kickoffs The PAC Network could control either Tier 1 or Tier 2 or both media rights. The PAC generated a profit with 32 table scrap games, massive rent costs and Larry funnelling millions out the door. If espn wants out then step up and take their spot. Lead or fade away. I think the Top 5 boosters from each school could invest hundreds of millions of dollars to launch this. I would expect Nike to be a big advertiser. Opportunity and preparedness must cross the intersection at the same time in order for something special to happen. Like Bowetman and Knight running into that intersection many years ago. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 19 Share Posted May 25, 2023 On 5/25/2023 at 6:02 PM, Rufus said: I think I remember reading the Big 12 has a clause in their contract with ESPN regarding the addition of teams. Not sure about FOX though. They likely have such a clause but it has to be discretionary with both ESPN and Fox. These 2 media companies are not going to surrender a business decision to any conference. Before an offer was confirmed ESPN committed more dough to the SEC. Ditto for Fox and B1G. The expansion was not agreed to without 1st going to the source of the money needed to fund expansion. The SEC and B1G schools would not have agreed to expand if it meant a lesser media money share for them. As I've noted before, the B12 commish's mouth is writing checks he can't cash. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 20 Share Posted May 25, 2023 (edited) On 5/25/2023 at 6:09 PM, HappyToBeADuck said: NJ Duck solid points.... It may be in espn's best interest for the PAC to breakup. That will free up the revenues ear marked for the PAC to pay elsewhere. Still leaves espn completely out of the west coast and late night viewing. Fox will own the west coast, in some fashion. Personally, the PAC is missing out on a potential profit center thru the CW. They just need to think outside the box. ( Not a PAC strong suit) So the CW and LIV golf have a unique media arrangement. LIV is responsible for all the production and promotion work and costs. The CW provides the linear platform to their 140 million potential viewers. ( Got that number from my study of the CW/LIV agreement. The CW pays NO media rights fee. LIV and CW split the advertising money. Its no risk for CW and a platform for LIV. I am confident if within the brief conversation with GK/CW if this was mentioned the PAC ran off in the opposite direction as fast as they could. But consider this thought. The PAC 12 Network has the production facilities, staff, field teams and broadcasters already in place. They did a darn good job and in many cases their broadcasts were better than espn. What they lacked was eyeballs and exposure. 15 million viewers was too small to generate big dollars because most advertisers were regional. However, the CW offers 140 million potential linear viewers. National exposure with bigger numbers means National Advertisers and bigger payouts. The PAC could expand to the east, add teams and cover 3 time zones. Potential Noon CST to 7:00 pm pst kickoffs The PAC Network could control either Tier 1 or Tier 2 or both media rights. The PAC generated a profit with 32 table scrap games, massive rent costs and Larry funnelling millions out the door. If espn wants out then step up and take their spot. Lead or fade away. I think the Top 5 boosters from each school could invest hundreds of millions of dollars to launch this. I would expect Nike to be a big advertiser. Opportunity and preparedness must cross the intersection at the same time in order for something special to happen. Like Bowetman and Knight running into that intersection many years ago. The network facilities are perfect for signing on with a tech, streaming company. I see absolutely no reason why ESPN would want the Pac-10 to fail. Edited May 25, 2023 by Jon Joseph Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 21 Share Posted May 25, 2023 On 5/25/2023 at 6:02 PM, Rufus said: I think I remember reading the Big 12 has a clause in their contract with ESPN regarding the addition of teams. Not sure about FOX though. Neither ESPN nor Fox is going to surrender their respective right to approve and pay for more B12 broadcasts. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rufus No. 22 Share Posted May 25, 2023 (edited) One thing about expansion….especially with the B1G, there is no public information about it until it happens. On the morning of June 30, 2022, we woke up with no indication that USC and UCLA were even considering leaving the conference. Within a few short hours, news broke that it was imminent, the B1G voted to add them, and each school voted to formally accept admission into the B1G. This all happened within a few short hours. Granted, talks happened for months behind the scenes. And Greg Flugaur posted about USC joining the B1G months before it happened. But there were no indications his statements were any different than others who randomly post things online. If the PAC starts losing more teams, I won’t be surprised. Since the day the ten remaining schools issued that joint statement of unity and commitment to the conference, I have never felt like this would end well for the conference. I do feel confident that Oregon will have a home in the B1G sooner or later. It just might not be at the same time as USC and UCLA. Edited May 25, 2023 by Rufus Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 23 Share Posted May 25, 2023 Rufus, Charles should put up an over/under number for the media deal bottom line. You are spot on. These deals are not announced before they are done. How can the B1G add more teams, even at a discount before the B1G's own media deal is finalized? 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRaider No. 24 Share Posted May 26, 2023 Hey guys, TTU fan here that has read this blog for a long time because I enjoy cheering for Oregon as my PAC team. I thought I'd chip in on this conversation and say that anything Swaim says you can throw out the window. That guy just makes stuff up that sounds semi reasonable that he thinks people want to hear. It's all click bait. The Berry Tramel story was more interesting because he's a guy who mostly covers OU but is pretty respected as a regional/Big12 journalist. And he's stayed out of the realignment stories until now. Anyway looking forward to playing y'all this year and will be cheering for the Ducks in all but one game. 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRaider No. 25 Share Posted May 26, 2023 On 5/26/2023 at 12:52 PM, Wrathis said: Not sure who all is making the game come September, but my girlfriend and I just got our tickets. Section 18, Row 2. Hopefully you're a good representative of the fan base as I've already been told to expect to get hit with tortillas and all manner of taunts/gestures. I believe the advise was "if you're up big, leave before the game ends bc it's gonna be a tough walk out of there." Truth is, I wanted my first Duck game to be in Autzen, but I couldn't pass up this opportunity Cheers! It's a rowdy fanbase but no worse than others (everyone has their idiots). We have a tradition of throwing tortillas in the air at kickoff and some fans (not most) think it's funny to throw the tortillas at opposing fans. In Section 18 you may get hit just because you are in the lower section and they'll be coming down but at least they are soft and don't hurt. The game day atmosphere should be great for this game and I think you'll have a lot of fun. 99% of fans will be respectful regardless of the game circumstances and I hope your experience is positive. Feel free to reach out if you have any questions about Lubbock or Texas Tech and I'd be happy to answer them. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
curtisd316 No. 26 Share Posted May 27, 2023 Colorado, ASU and Arizona having meetings Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 27 Share Posted May 27, 2023 On 5/26/2023 at 7:40 PM, curtisd316 said: Colorado, ASU and Arizona having meetings Right. 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
curtisd316 No. 28 Share Posted May 27, 2023 On 5/26/2023 at 10:54 PM, Charles Fischer said: Right. look it up its being reported 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 29 Share Posted May 27, 2023 On 5/26/2023 at 10:58 PM, curtisd316 said: look it up its being reported According to many reports these schools are already in the B12 and Oregon and UW are in the B1G with OR ST and WA ST in the Mountain West. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 30 Share Posted May 27, 2023 (edited) According to Brent McMurphy, and as also reported by Dennis Dodd and The National Enquirer, Charles is coming out of retirement to play for the 49ers and I am coming out of retirement to play for the Boston Bruins. Not trying to belittle anyone but this is rumor-mongering and the rumors will not end before a new Pac media deal is announced. Did any of these 3 schools' SID report the meetings? Ask yourself this question: Are ESPN/Fox (with the LA market locked up) going to pay $30.7M x 3 per annum for these schools' sports inventory? And are downstream advertisers standing by to assure ESPN/Fox a profit if they do so? Over the life of the 6-year B12 media deal the total would be an additional $552.6M; $276.3M for each network. And this question. Are these schools willing to join the B12 for less money than BYU will be paid? And would any of these 3 schools leave the Pac for a few million more if the Pac deal comes in at say, $25M per annum? According to Jon Wilner, a reporter I trust, the Pac deal is still in line to equal or exceed the B1G media deal. Edited May 27, 2023 by Jon Joseph 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 31 Share Posted May 27, 2023 The helmet avatar of Curtis is West Virginia… Note also that the poster has a bias-preference, as many Big-12 fans want Oregon to join them. 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 32 Share Posted May 27, 2023 Almost heaven? W VA is at risk of being left behind far more than is Oregon. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
woundedknees No. 33 Share Posted May 27, 2023 Jon, if your gonna be playing for the Bruins, I'll need to install cable in my late Uncle George's coffin, 'cause he's gonna wanna see dat! It aint over til the fat cat's sing, and we haven't even heard them humming as yet. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
