My Opinion on Oregon's Future Non-Conference Schedule

[Thomallister1291]

I know this is a topic that has been repeated quite a lot on here but considering that today John Canzano spoke with Rob Mullens and somehow got asked about Oregon's non-conference schedules really is something.

 

As far as we know, Oregon's future P5 non-conference foes are Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Michigan State and Ohio State, I do understand that those opponents shouldn't be understimated and would be fun matchups, especially in Ohio State's case because they are among the most legendary programs in the country, but I feel there's something...off.

 

The fact that we have three consecutive series' with the Big 12 really unsettles me, considering that the conference doesn't have a lot of exposure when compared to the SEC, Big Ten and maybe even the ACC, whom we've rarely played against with, all those matchups except for Ohio State were scheduled nearly 5 years ago and we've barely gotten any sort of news about Oregon scheduling foes that aren't G5 or FCS opponents, in fact, the most recent news about the program's schedule was in December 30, 2021, when it was announced Oregon scheduled Hawaii in 2031.

 

I know there's still some bitter memories over the game against Georgia, but in my opinion, Oregon shouldn't shy away from programs like those and focus on bringing challenging opponents to Eugene, and with the expanded playoffs, you have a much easier chance competing for one of the 12 spots.

 

In my opinion, scheduling a team like Alabama and Clemson in the future wouldn't hurt a bit, and I think those would be extremely fun matchups due to the simple fact they're never-before-seen matchups with two of the NCAA's most prestigious CFB programs.

 

But, what's your opinion on the Ducks' non-conference schedule?

 

Go Ducks!

[Thomallister1291]

BTW, since I'm not subscribed to John Canzano's site, I can't see what did Mullens say about the non-conference schedules.

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/30/2023 at 6:09 PM, Thomallister1291 said:

BTW, since I'm not subscribed to John Canzano's site, I can't see what did Mullens say about the non-conference schedules.

Among other things, he said it is difficult to get big-name teams to play in Autzen and that if the Pac-10 adds two teams it should seriously consider a 10-game conference schedule. Suicide in a 4 team playoff but doable in a 12-team playoff.

 

Hopefully, Ohio State which just canceled a 2024/25 home and home series with UW will not bail out on the return visit it owes Oregon.

 

The Buckeyes paid UW $500K to exit the scheduled games.

[Charles Fischer]

Mullens said he wants each year to have a strong Power-5 opponent, (Texas Tech is ranked and will be tough at home) a middling Power-5 teams such as Hawaii, Fresno State, Wyoming, etc., and a FCS opponent such as Portland State, Eastern Washington, Southern Utah, etc.  

 

As Jon wrote--Mullens said it is hard to get great team to come to Autzen.

 

“It’s louder than any place I’ve ever been, and that includes The Swamp at Florida, The Shoe in Columbus, and Death Valley at Louisiana State. Autzen Stadium is where great teams go to die.”

J. Brady McCullough, The Michigan Daily

[HappyToBeADuck]

Once OU and Texas head to the SEC (big mistake) and usc and ucla head to the BIG ( double big mistake for ucla because they will not climb over tOSU, Penn State or Michigan for a CFP invite) OOC scheduling could become very difficult. It will take a few years for a better look at the OOC games landscape.

 

i too would love to see big name schools come to Autzen.

 

Bringing big name schools to Autzen appears to be a challenge for Mullens. The Ducks are extremely difficult at home and too much of a risk for the top teams.

 

But those games may no longer be in the Ducks best interest.

 

As much as the games against Georgia, LSU and Auburn raised the Ducks profile, the losses carried the weight of the Ducks " just don't belong with the big boys" all season long. Those are must win games and not worth the risk of a loss. It's creates a negative narrative in the media.

 

Yes the win against tOSU vaulted the Ducks to #3 and they stayed there until the ASU game. Then it all came apart.

 

One or two P-5 opponents at home is sufficient enough to build a resume. The goal is to be no less than 12-1 after the PAC title game. 

Then be healthy and win their first CFP game, then the quarterfinal and get to the semis. That is a $50-$60 million dollar payday.

 

An early season, for no reason loss to a power house team could keep the Ducks out of the CFP. There would be no room for error after that. No 10-2 PAC team will make the expanded CFP, unless they win the PAC Title.  A 3rd or 4th place, 10-2 SEC team will get an at large invite before a 10-2 PAC team 

 

The PAC needs 2 teams in the CFP, every year. OOC scheduling is critical to achieve this goal. Both teams need to enter the PAC Title game 11-1. The 11-2 loser may not get a CFP invite.

 

Why schedule a top 10 school for early games? I hope we never play Georgia, Bama, LSU or tOSU again unless its in the,semis or Natty.

 

I dont like where college football is headed. However, as a fan i cannot change any of it. So it is reaching the point of co along to get along.

[Rufus]

I'm more interested in what the future conference schedule looks like - namely, whoever is in whatever conference the Ducks find themselves in.  

[Jon Joseph]

I think that come 2024 and a 12-team field that 10-2 teams, hopefully with the best SOS and not simply because the teams are in the B1G and the SEC will be among the 6 at large teams that are in the field and a number of 10-2 teams could be among the top 6 ranked conference teams.

 

Conundrum. Play a top-drawer B1G or SEC opponent OOC or take an easier path. Until we learn how the Committee will act in 2024 it is difficult to know.

 

I do think the playoff will expand to 16 teams in 2026 with no byes but today, finishing as a top 4 conference champ earns you a 1st round bye. Both Clemson that decisively lost its bowl game versus Tennessee and Utah, beaten down by Penn State in the Rose Bowl would have received a bye in 2023 if the 2024/5 12-team structure had been in place.

 

So one wonders whether there will be 1st round byes come 2026 and if so, will the byes go to conference champions or the top 4 ranked teams? We know what the SEC will be pushing for. 

[HappyToBeADuck]

If for some reason, the 4 teams that get a first round bye DON'T get any first round money then the CFP will be pushed to 16 teams.

 

Georgia, Bama, tOSU and that 4th team will want their $20 mil for a first round game. The other 8 teams wont want to share their money with 4 teams with a bye.

 

So economics and greed will get this to 16 teams fairly fast.

 

So much will change very quickly as all this unfolds. Whoever makes the best moves in the next 5-6 years will control the landscape.

 

However this unfolds the Ducks will come out okay as long as their is a clear path to the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

 

Go Ducks.........

[Haywarduck]

If we win it will all take care of it self. Get to the title game and the Auburns, Floridas, Michigan States, Texas's will want a shot at Oregon. Without winning we have to travel to Georgia, and play at a supposed neutral site against Georgia.

 

I don't think we need to play against the Georgia, Alabama and LSU programs during the regular season. We just need to beat the next tier teams, that will play a home and home. We need to schedule more home and home, with bigger buyouts. 

 

We need to keep building to become elite, not just meat for the elite. Georgia plays 4 games away from home this season. They play an 8 game conference schedule.

 

That is the way you get to the playoffs. We played 6 games away last season, 5 this year, and a 9 game conference schedule. That is what needs to change, get on equal footing.

[Jon Joseph]

I understand Rob's comment about convincing B1G and SEC teams to play in Autzen.

 

But Michigan State has scheduled an H+H with Oregon 7 years from now and Florida trips to Utah in 2023.

 

Not the same risk as playing in Autzen but Auburn plays at CAL in 2023 and Wisconsin visits Wazzu. So I have to consider this a bit of a lame excuse on the part of Rob. 

 

I see games versus Texas Tech, OK St., and Baylor being more or less no-win situations for Oregon. Win, well you are supposed to win, and a loss means a lack of national respect. 

 

Oregon needs eye on the prize OOC games. Games that will draw 4M plus eyeballs and broadcast on Fox, ABC, or ESPN and not ESPN 2 as is the case with the 2023 game at Texas Tech.

 

With a 12-team playoff coming and the top 6 conference champs in the field, I am hoping that SOS and not just Ws and Ls will matter for an invite to the playoff and for seeding. 

 

10-2 teams will be in the 12-team playoff field and perhaps even a 9-3 conference champion.  

[DanLduck]

Mullens suggesting a move to 10 conference games is telling.

 

I don't think we as fans really get how difficult it is to get other teams to travel to Eugene. That's why the 3 SEC games were 1 offs. Not home and home.

 

Everybody is watching their budget, also the concerns about appearing "green" are valid concerns for some schools. 

Distances from competition is real out here in the west.

There are way more schools in the east within driving distance. 

 

Personally, unless we get a home and home series, I say don't play blue bloods ooc. We are now a good enough program, we don't have to prove anything. I'll take all div 2 schools if it gets us undefeated for a couple years.

With expanded playoffs, there will be enough good teams to play.

 

In a few years, we can schedule either LA school as an OOC game.

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/31/2023 at 4:03 PM, DanLduck said:

Mullens suggesting a move to 10 conference games is telling.

 

I don't think we as fans really get how difficult it is to get other teams to travel to Eugene. That's why the 3 SEC games were 1 offs. Not home and home.

 

Everybody is watching their budget, also the concerns about appearing "green" are valid concerns for some schools. 

Distances from competition is real out here in the west.

There are way more schools in the east within driving distance. 

 

Personally, unless we get a home and home series, I say don't play blue bloods ooc. We are now a good enough program, we don't have to prove anything. I'll take all div 2 schools if it gets us undefeated for a couple years.

With expanded playoffs, there will be enough good teams to play.

 

In a few years, we can schedule either LA school as an OOC game.

Great thoughts but not so long ago the Ducks played a H+H series with Tennessee.

 

And Utah, Arizona, CAL scored H+H series with SEC schools.

 

I do not want to do anything to make life easier for SC and UCLA.

[TECH FAN]

I hope Tech at least makes it a game when Oregon comes to Lubbock. BTW, I am super pumped its a night game. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/1/2023 at 8:09 AM, TECH FAN said:

I hope Tech at least makes it a game when Oregon comes to Lubbock. BTW, I am super pumped its a night game. 

No offense directed at you, Texas Tech and its great fans, Lubbock (an underrated city,) and the great Buddy Holly but with the B12 commissioner Yarmack doing all he can to destabilize the Pac-10 I'd like to see Oregon buy out of the TT, Baylor, and Oklahoma State games in favor of No. Texas, UTSA, and SMU.

 

Why should Oregon, not to sound elitist, give a boost to B!2 team schedules when a slimy commissioner is doing all he can to crater the Pac-10? And it's not just Yarmack, all B12 presidents have voted in favor of adding more teams and in favor of westward expansion.

 

Play the 3 above teams instead of B12 teams and the OOC schedule would be no worse than that of UCLA and Michigan. And with the 3 substitutes most likely all 6 games would be played in Autzen.

 

Mullens has come up with 6 B12 OOC games that today, make him look like a sucker. 

 

Having said this I too am happy that the game in Lubbock will be a night game on big Fox but it will be going up against Texas at Bama on ESPN. A game that will draw far more eyeballs. The game would be more watched if it kicked off at 11 AM Central time as does the OK/TX game every season.

 

And it makes zero sense to send the Pac's 2nd best team to play a B12 team in a bowl game in San Antonio.

 

All the best to you. It is great to have you on the Forum.

Edited June 1, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[DanLduck]

On 5/31/2023 at 2:51 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Great thoughts but not so long ago the Ducks played a H+H series with Tennessee.

 

And Utah, Arizona, CAL scored H+H series with SEC schools.

 

I do not want to do anything to make life easier for SC and UCLA.

I don't see UA or CAL being the threat for a loss as much as UO is.

Autzen Is much tougher place to play than Berkley.

We have struggled for years getting good schools to commit, and then they back out like UTAM and others.

 

I think we should schedule like 'Bama.

All easy wins. Then running the table in the Pac will put us in playoff.

Especially at 12+ teams. The games at the end of the season will be the tough ones.

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/1/2023 at 1:20 PM, DanLduck said:

I don't see UA or CAL being the threat for a loss as much as UO is.

Autzen Is much tougher place to play than Berkley.

We have struggled for years getting good schools to commit, and then they back out like UTAM and others.

 

I think we should schedule like 'Bama.

All easy wins. Then running the table in the Pac will put us in playoff.

Especially at 12+ teams. The games at the end of the season will be the tough ones.

That's old Bama. Bama plays the 2nd game this season with Texas and has a number of big-time H+H OOC games on future schedules.

 

Not a big-time game as of today but Bama has a H+H scheduled with Arizona.

Edited June 1, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[DanLduck]

On 6/1/2023 at 10:43 AM, Jon Joseph said:

That's old Bama. Bama plays the 2nd game this season with Texas and has a number of big-time H+H OOC games on future schedules.

 

Not a big-time game as of today but Bama has a H+H scheduled with Arizona.

Wow. With UA...worst record in the Pac. Figures.

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/1/2023 at 5:19 PM, DanLduck said:

Wow. With UA...worst record in the Pac. Figures.

This is the former AD at AZ, Battle who is now with Bma helping AZ out with a big-time-sold-out game in Tucson.

[DanLduck]

On 6/1/2023 at 4:52 PM, Jon Joseph said:

This is the former AD at AZ, Battle who is now with Bma helping AZ out with a big-time-sold-out game in Tucson.

I like that. Does this mean we can expect a H&H with Northwestern? lol

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/30/2023 at 9:58 PM, HappyToBeADuck said:

If for some reason, the 4 teams that get a first round bye DON'T get any first round money then the CFP will be pushed to 16 teams.

 

Georgia, Bama, tOSU and that 4th team will want their $20 mil for a first round game. The other 8 teams wont want to share their money with 4 teams with a bye.

 

So economics and greed will get this to 16 teams fairly fast.

 

So much will change very quickly as all this unfolds. Whoever makes the best moves in the next 5-6 years will control the landscape.

 

However this unfolds the Ducks will come out okay as long as their is a clear path to the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

 

Go Ducks.........

In 24/25 the teams with 1st round byes will get the same share of proceeds as teams 5 - 8.

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/2/2023 at 5:48 PM, DanLduck said:

I like that. Does this mean we can expect a H&H with Northwestern? lol

Could happen ut also H+H with Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, and Wisconsin could happen.

 

And would games versus NW draw fewer eyeballs than a game with Baylor?

[lownslowav8r]

On 5/30/2023 at 4:44 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Among other things, he said it is difficult to get big-name teams to play in Autzen

In large part because winning in Autzen is tough even for good teams. Being a SEC or B1G powerhouse coming to Autzen and getting your butt kicked doesn’t play well into the carefully crafted mystique built around these teams.