NJDuck Moderator No. 1 Share Posted August 15, 2023 One of the best tools that college football fans have at their disposal each and every season is the ESPN Football Power Index. For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is a ranking that “relies on past performance, on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” Virtually, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percent chance to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end. Following the end of the spring football season across the nation, ESPN’s FPI gave a percent chance for each team in the Pac-12 conference to become bowl eligible, and ultimately win the conference. However, in the fast few months with the addition of several new transfers for different teams, those odds have changed. Fans of the Oregon Ducks should be happy. Take a look at where ESPN now projects each Pac-12 team will finish up in 2023. Oregon Football: Pac-12 championship odds change according to ESPN FPI DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM USC is still favored to win the Pac-12 title, per ESPN. However, the Oregon Ducks are quickly making up ground. Jon Wilner's prediction is so off, his vote on the polls. On3 Justin Hopkins prediction is more in line. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pennsylvania Duck Moderator No. 2 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Updated win-percentage odds for every Duck game according to ESPN FPI By all metrics, the Oregon Ducks are expected to have a pretty successful season in 2023. That shouldn’t come as much of a surprise; Dan Lanning had a great first year as a head coach and now is more experienced going into 2023; the offense brings back QB Bo Nix, WR Troy Franklin, RB Bucky Irving, and TE Terrance Ferguson, among many other impact players; the defense has re-tooled and hopes to be much more productive with an improved pass-rush and speedy secondary. While their preseason rankings across a number of polls may not reflect the high expectations that are held in Eugene, their projected record and early-season odds going into each game say differently. Oregon Football: Updated win-percentage odds for every Duck game DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM Updated win-percentage odds for every Duck game according to ESPN FPI Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 3 Share Posted August 16, 2023 On 8/16/2023 at 10:42 AM, Pennsylvania Duck said: Updated win-percentage odds for every Duck game according to ESPN FPI By all metrics, the Oregon Ducks are expected to have a pretty successful season in 2023. That shouldn’t come as much of a surprise; Dan Lanning had a great first year as a head coach and now is more experienced going into 2023; the offense brings back QB Bo Nix, WR Troy Franklin, RB Bucky Irving, and TE Terrance Ferguson, among many other impact players; the defense has re-tooled and hopes to be much more productive with an improved pass-rush and speedy secondary. While their preseason rankings across a number of polls may not reflect the high expectations that are held in Eugene, their projected record and early-season odds going into each game say differently. Oregon Football: Updated win-percentage odds for every Duck game DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM Updated win-percentage odds for every Duck game according to ESPN FPI FPI Underdogs in 2 games: at Utah and versus USC. The Ducks IMO win at least 1 of these games. TEXAS TECH (TT) - FPI gives the Ducks a 51% chance to win in Lubbock. In 2021, Michigan came from outside the Top 25 in the AP Poll (AP) to make the Final 4. In 2022, TCU did the same. Ironically, these 2 met in a Playoff semi-final with TCU coming out on top. (Jim Harbaugh, kick an opening drive FG!) Stewart Mandel TT, ranked 26 in the first AP, to be the leading dark horse (fits the color of the horse the Red Raider rides into the stadium) to come from out of the AP Top 25 and make the final Final 4. From Mandel's (paywall protected) 8/16 Mailbag.) Tyler Shough is back for his 4th season as a starting college QB. (1st season Tyler played at Oregon.) In Shough's final 2 games of 2022, he went 31 of 50 for 436 yards in TT's OT win over Oklahoma, then threw for 242 yards and ran for 111 in the bowl win over Ole Miss. Shough has often been hurt but TT is 8-0 in the 8 games, Tyler started and finished. TT returns its top 5 receivers. And a home run hitter in RB Tahj Brooks. 3 players on D made Bruce Feldman's Freaks List, safety Tyler Owens, DT Jaylon Hutchings, and edge rusher Myles Cole. B12 Honorable mention DT Tony Bradford is back. This will be a very tough game in a hot, hostile environment. I do expect TT to win its opener at Wyoming and TT will likely be in the AP Top 25 in Week 2. Friend Mike West, whose opinions I always respect, sees Puddles having few problems in Lubbock. I wish I was as sanguine about the Ducks chances as is Mike. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 4 Share Posted August 16, 2023 On 8/16/2023 at 8:46 AM, Jon Joseph said: Puddles having few problems in Lubbock. If they have fixed the defense like I think they have them it shouldn't be bad. What destroyed us regularly last year we're those easy underneath throws. I think Lanning has that fixed with new athletic linebackers, and a better front pass rush. The secondary actually did fairly well last year considering those underneath throws were often linebacker coverage failures and a lack of pass rush meant the secondary had to hold up longer which is always difficult. With that said... I do feel the secondary has improved and solved some of their own problems as well. 1 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 5 Share Posted August 16, 2023 (edited) Bill Connelly (ESPN+ paywall) final season SP+ rankings. 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. Alabama 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Clemson 8. Tennessee 9. Texas 10. USC - Ranked 2 on O and 47 on D 11. Notre Dame 12. FSU 13. OREGON - Ranked 5 on O and 50 (!) on D 14. UTAH - Ranked 12 on O and 26 on D 15. Oklahoma 16. Texas A+M 17. Washington - Ranked 9 on O and 48 on D 18. Ole Miss 19. Wisconsin 20. K State 21. TCU 22. Iowa 23. Florida 24. Kentucky 25. UNC IMO, way too much love for the B12. 28. UCLA - Ranked 13 O and 63 D 31. Oregon State - Ranked 35 O and 33 D 32. TEXAS TECH - ranked 15 O and 66 D - "Averaged 25 in preseason polls but only 32 by SP+." The SP+ predictive model likes Oregon's chances against Texas Tech far more than ESPN's FPI. It also likes Oregon to match up with USC in the Pac-12 Champ Game. Other conferences champ games - ACC - Clemson vs FSU B1G - Ohio State vs Wisconsin B12 - Texas vs Oklahoma (A B12 nightmare! Let this happen, PLEASE!) SEC - Georgia vs Alabama Let's Play Ball! Edited August 16, 2023 by Jon Joseph Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Annie No. 6 Share Posted August 16, 2023 On 8/16/2023 at 10:23 AM, Jon Joseph said: ... 13. OREGON - Ranked 5 on O and 50 (!) on D ... Presumably on last season's D.... 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 7 Share Posted August 16, 2023 On 8/16/2023 at 10:27 AM, Annie said: Presumably on last season's D.... Pretty sure last seasons D ranked lower. We do need our defense to be able to win one or two games on their shoulders. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Sousa No. 8 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Everyone has been talking about the Ducks hopefully averaging 40 points this year. Seems reasonable if the defense improves enough to put the ball back in the O's hands an average one more time per game. I was curious about the Duckswire predictions and so added up all the Duck's scores and divided by 12. The result was 36.83 points per game. Hopefully, Duckswire is wrong because that would be a step backward. Last year ppg was 38.77. I couldn't find the stats for either points per possession or possessions per game for last year. however if the defense gives the offense the ball an average of once more per game, you've got to think that translates into 2 more points average per game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 9 Share Posted August 16, 2023 On 8/16/2023 at 12:33 PM, Jon Sousa said: Everyone has been talking about the Ducks hopefully averaging 40 points this year. Seems reasonable if the defense improves enough to put the ball back in the O's hands an average one more time per game. I was curious about the Duckswire predictions and so added up all the Duck's scores and divided by 12. The result was 36.83 points per game. Hopefully, Duckswire is wrong because that would be a step backward. Last year ppg was 38.77. I couldn't find the stats for either points per possession or possessions per game for last year. however if the defense gives the offense the ball an average of once more per game, you've got to think that translates into 2 more points average per game. Great point about defense needing to feed the ball to the offense. I wrote an article about number of offensive plays per game that Dillingham wanted to run last year and that does translate to a degree in number of points on the board... But the key is the defense getting off the field. 80 Plays Per Game is More Than an Offensive Goal FISHDUCK.COM Back on National Signing Day in early February, Offensive Coordinator Kenny Dillingham said that his Oregon... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUCKED No. 10 Share Posted August 16, 2023 On 8/16/2023 at 7:42 AM, Pennsylvania Duck said: Updated win-percentage odds for every Duck game according to ESPN FPI By all metrics, the Oregon Ducks are expected to have a pretty successful season in 2023. That shouldn’t come as much of a surprise; Dan Lanning had a great first year as a head coach and now is more experienced going into 2023; the offense brings back QB Bo Nix, WR Troy Franklin, RB Bucky Irving, and TE Terrance Ferguson, among many other impact players; the defense has re-tooled and hopes to be much more productive with an improved pass-rush and speedy secondary. While their preseason rankings across a number of polls may not reflect the high expectations that are held in Eugene, their projected record and early-season odds going into each game say differently. Oregon Football: Updated win-percentage odds for every Duck game DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM Updated win-percentage odds for every Duck game according to ESPN FPI This sort of stuff drives me crazy. So, Oregon's chances of winning the Pac-12 went from 16.9 percent to 18.2 percent, BUT its bowl eligibility prediction went from 99.4 percent to 95.9. How does that make sense? Head scratcher. Somebody far brighter than me, please explain. I'm going back to my book "A Gentleman In Moscow," which is absolutely wonderful. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Log Haulin No. 11 Share Posted August 16, 2023 On 8/16/2023 at 12:33 PM, Jon Sousa said: Everyone has been talking about the Ducks hopefully averaging 40 points this year. Seems reasonable if the defense improves enough to put the ball back in the O's hands an average one more time per game. I was curious about the Duckswire predictions and so added up all the Duck's scores and divided by 12. The result was 36.83 points per game. Hopefully, Duckswire is wrong because that would be a step backward. Last year ppg was 38.77. I couldn't find the stats for either points per possession or possessions per game for last year. however if the defense gives the offense the ball an average of once more per game, you've got to think that translates into 2 more points average per game. I see ppg dropping this year due to new clock rules. I also see the D giving the O an extra possession. My prediction is 1.5 extra possessions per game. We will see where ppg lands and how much a running clock chews into it. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
