FishDuck Article Administrator No. 1 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Last year I wrote an article about the Coming College Football Schism where there will be two conferences that are composed of the haves and the remaining conferences’ have-nots. That is already happening; it resulted in the Big 12 becoming a second-rate power with the loss of Texas and Oklahoma, which in turn caused the Big 12 to become a ... You The ACC Is Next on the Chopping Block for Conference Realignment FISHDUCK.COM Last year I wrote an article about the Coming College Football Schism where there will be two conferences that are composed of the haves... 1 4 Two Sites: FishDuck and the Our Beloved Ducks forum, The only "Forum with Decorum!" And All-Volunteer? What a wonderful community of Duck fans! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kamikaze Kid Moderator No. 2 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Great article. I think the next step in the realignment carousel is supper conferences getting rid of dead weight at contract renegotiation time.What happens if Fox tells the BIG that they'll pay $100M per school for the top 14 media teams if they add 4-6 top ACC teams but drop the bottom 4 media teams? If not, then it's just let's say it's $60M each for everybody. What would they do? I'd expect this to happen in the next go round in 2030. I think the media giants won't want bloated 24+ school conferences with a bunch of light weights glutting them up. They will most likely want the biggest bang for the buck. At that point, I'd assume that the SEC/ BIG would be the varsity conferences with 36-40 schools. The ACC remnants and AAC merge as do the B12/ Pac/ MWC for a JV level. The remaining conferences will either drop to a freshman team type status or just drop to a lower division all together. I don't like this direction for college sports but that seems to me to be the direction that it's heading. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haywarduck Moderator No. 3 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Let's just tell it like it is. There are no real conferences anymore. We have media run groupings of college football programs which enhance their bottomline. I agree with the Kkid, next step is getting rid of the dead weight. We live in a new world of college football where we can cheer for our program, but there will be no more real conferences. The good news is we can still hate the dawgs, spoiled children and have a chance to beat them every year. The rivalry games will live on. Winning the conference will only be big this year. So let's get it done and win the Pac-12 and put it to bed the right way, Oregon on top! 1 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 4 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Great take, David. Thank you. The ACC's crummy media numbers are goosed by distribution from the ACC Network. With the media distributions, ACC schools received @$40M from ESPN in 2022. More than the B12 and Pac-12 distributed. But far behind the B1G and the SEC. Larry Scott was foolish to enter into a 12-year media deal. A deal that runs through 2036 is beyond foolish. The ACC as currently structured is gone within 5 years. All it takes is 4 ACC schools besides the ones that black-balled Cal and Stanford, Clemson, FSU, UNC, and NC State, to crater the conference and allow teams to depart without the payment of any exit fee let alone $120M. And ESPN will have to on the one hand come up with more money but will on the other hand, lose the cost of the ACC deal and the cost of operating the ACC Network. As David notes, the prize schools money-wise are Clemson and FSU. Clemson was No. 10 in average number of football viewers in 2022, with 3M viewers. FSU finished No. 15, with 2.030M viewers. After this, you drop to No. 43 NC State, with 881K viewers, No. 46 UNC with 849K viewers. Then 48, Syracuse. 49, Georgia Tech. 56. Pitt. 59. Miami. 60. Wake Forest. By comparison, Washington State finished 41. with 907K viewers. Notwithstanding the objections of South Carolina and Florida, as was the case with Texas and A+M, Clemson and FSU make perfect sense for the SEC. These two are not AAU member schools so I believe both are off the board for the B1G. I think the most likely candidates nationally for the B1G are Notre Dame, which could be left with no ACC football scheduling agreement and nowhere for its other teams to play, and AAU member schools Stanford, UNC, Duke, Georgia Tech, and UVA. I can see the SEC having an interest beyond Clemson and FSU in Louisville and NC State. Maybe No. 13 most-watched TCU and No. 24. most-watched Oklahoma State (only 1 spot behind Oklahoma.) I think Miami gets left behind. A smaller Private school drafting off of its glory days, No. 60 in viewership as noted above, and without an on-campus football field. Regardless, size goes to size in big business. College sports have been fully capitalized and there is nothing collegial involved when public media companies 'own' the Power 2 conferences. The NLRB, various state legislatures, and numerous plaintiffs are all after college sports, at least football, and men's basketball players, to be deemed to be employees. When, and it's a question of when and not if this happens, the final consolidation will see a Power 2, AFL - NFL consolidation. Going to Congress for relief is a fool's errand. This is the natural progression flowing from the NCAA losing its broadcast monopoly in 1984 and the idea that college football needed the BCS to determine its One True Champion. You take the money in any endeavor and you pay the price. And once money rules the day, the pursuit of more money is inexorable. The price here among other things is the loss of tradition, the destruction of loyalty, every school and player looking out for themself and themselves, and young men no longer playing football in the daylight. Thanks again, David. Do I like all of 'this?' Heck no! However, and I would be a hypocrite to think otherwise, I am extremely happy that Oregon caught the last plane out and is headed to B1G country. 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
noDucknewby No. 5 Share Posted August 22, 2023 As the super conferences coalesce it seems inevitable that the media giants calling the shots give the boot to programs like Rutgers and Vanderbilt. I'm really hoping this doesn't happen, but if it does it becomes a blood-bath at that point. IMHO the only thing that saves some semblance of college football as we know it is a centralized power structure with a commissioner ala the NFL. As it stands the media giants are pitting conference against conference and there really is no recourse as it stands. Chip's got it right, split football from the other collegiate sports (no NCAA!), appoint a commissioner and board of directors, agree on a set of NIL rules and then negotiate for media rights as a comprehensive package. Granted this is a massive undertaking, but we know what we get if we keep going down the road we're on. 1 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 6 Share Posted August 22, 2023 Side note ... I picked some of the best photos from the FishDuck photo library of ACC players made to look silly by Oregon players. One of the things I didn't mention that could be a real wild card in all of this is Notre Dame. They are only a partial member of the ACC for football but have their own media deal. If Notre Dame were to become a full member that could change the media payout equation... But that basically requires Notre Dame to be willing to share the wealth which feels incredibly unlikely. Both from a financial perspective but also from pride perspective. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 7 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 1:03 PM, noDucknewby said: As the super conferences coalesce it seems inevitable that the media giants calling the shots give the boot to programs like Rutgers and Vanderbilt. I'm really hoping this doesn't happen, but if it does it becomes a blood-bath at that point. IMHO the only thing that saves some semblance of college football as we know it is a centralized power structure with a commissioner ala the NFL. As it stands the media giants are pitting conference against conference and there really is no recourse as it stands. Chip's got it right, split football from the other collegiate sports (no NCAA!), appoint a commissioner and board of directors, agree on a set of NIL rules and then negotiate for media rights as a comprehensive package. Granted this is a massive undertaking, but we know what we get if we keep going down the road we're on. With athletes deemed to be employees, teams like Northwestern, Vandy, etc. may voluntarily withdraw instead of dealing with the consequences such as negotiating with a players union. Agreement with a players union is the only way, IMO, that transfers can be controlled. I do not see any way that NIL will be restricted. There is a salary cap and restraints on rookie contracts in the NFL but no restraints on NIL. I think it is likely when players become employees that we will see a high school draft which would eliminate NIL bidding for recruits. I do believe a school like Vandy will get a piece of the football pie and remain in its existing conference for all other sports other than football and perhaps men's basketball. Title 9 could also play a major role in how ever this all sorts out. But who knows how this will all come down and who has been tough to locate in the current conference consolidation. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 8 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 11:17 AM, Jon Joseph said: With athletes deemed to be employees, teams like Northwestern, Vandy, etc. may voluntarily withdraw instead of dealing with the consequences such as negotiating with a players union. Agreement with a players union is the only way, IMO, that transfers can be controlled. I do not see any way that NIL will be restricted. There is a salary cap and restraints on rookie contracts in the NFL but no restraints on NIL. I think it is likely when players become employees that we will see a high school draft which would eliminate NIL bidding for recruits. I do believe a school like Vandy will get a piece of the football pie and remain in its existing conference for all other sports other than football and perhaps men's basketball. Title 9 could also play a major role in how ever this all sorts out. But who knows how this will all come down and who has been tough to locate in the current conference consolidation. And all of this pressure may cause a breaking point for most schools. Which could bring on a change in the structure of college sports all over again. A change that reverts to the model of student athletes. The Eventual College Football Renaissance FISHDUCK.COM The Great College Football Schism is Coming, and it will leave College Football divided between the... But to reach this point we need to go through a great divide in college football. The Great College Football Schism is Coming FISHDUCK.COM The great college football schism is coming, and it will fracture college football in a way that will shake the... Where the haves play in one league and everyone else in another. The thing is ... It might be a whole lot more fun to watch those have nots play because it will look more like how college sports has always looked like. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haywarduck Moderator No. 9 Share Posted August 22, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 11:17 AM, David Marsh said: One of the things I didn't mention that could be a real wild card in all of this is Notre Dame. They are only a partial member of the ACC for football but have their own media deal. If Notre Dame were to become a full member that could change the media payout equation... But that basically requires Notre Dame to be willing to share the wealth which feels incredibly unlikely. Both from a financial perspective but also from pride perspective. I quoted this before, but the future is already here, we just don't recognize it yet. Is Notre Dame the model all will follow? If so every team value is negotiated, which would further the competition? It does seem like we need to have programs like Oregon able to get more money than a WSU, Rutgers. We put more money in and have had more success, bring in more tv money . I definitely would think some kind of hybrid program will come to fruition. Maybe divisions like in euro soccer where you earn your way to the elite level, and nobody is sacred. If you lose too often, too many years, you're out. A beav program can rise up to the elite level. I can also agree some type of commissioner or control system needs to be in place. The NFL has controls, and the billionaires agree to it because they know if there was no commissioner they would all be broke, spend all their money on players. Right now we are headed in the direction of an uncontrolled NFL, no holds barred to build teams, programs. An answer will arise, and it may be already out there! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OregonDucks No. 10 Share Posted August 22, 2023 I don't understand why the ACC would agree to add Stanford and/or Cal without additional TV dollars for the existing schools, given the additional travel costs. The schools that are opposed to expansion want out of the conference. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 11 Share Posted August 23, 2023 (edited) On 8/22/2023 at 4:19 PM, Haywarduck said: I quoted this before, but the future is already here, we just don't recognize it yet. Is Notre Dame the model all will follow? If so every team value is negotiated, which would further the competition? It does seem like we need to have programs like Oregon able to get more money than a WSU, Rutgers. We put more money in and have had more success, bring in more tv money . I definitely would think some kind of hybrid program will come to fruition. Maybe divisions like in euro soccer where you earn your way to the elite level, and nobody is sacred. If you lose too often, too many years, you're out. A beav program can rise up to the elite level. I can also agree some type of commissioner or control system needs to be in place. The NFL has controls, and the billionaires agree to it because they know if there was no commissioner they would all be broke, spend all their money on players. Right now we are headed in the direction of an uncontrolled NFL, no holds barred to build teams, programs. An answer will arise, and it may be already out there! Notre Dame without the ACC to play other sports in is in a pickle. Having all of its teams other than football and ice hockey that plays in the B1G, having a home in the ACC, along with the ACC football scheduling agreement, enables ND to stay at least quasi-independent in football. As to equal revenue splits, I see this going away as you so suggest as conferences continue to consolidate and linear broadcasting moves to streaming. With streaming, the size of media markets will be meaningless, as is kind of the case today. Cal and Stanford are both in a major media market but this did not entice Fox, CBS, and NBC to fund their entry into the B1G. Schools will be paid based on the number of people who pay for streaming subscriptions and watch given teams play. This along with being rewarded for playing in and advancing in the football and CBB playoffs. I expect that the coming CFB players union will negotiate for a piece of the media pie. And a players union will allow for bargained agreement on transfers, among other things. I believe a high school draft will follow suit which will eliminate NIL being used as a recruiting inducement. And eliminating the huge recruiting piece of being a coach will bring down college football coaches salaries. I don't know if it's a brave new world but it is a new world and college football being entirely monetized will lead to NFL Lite and possibly CBB Lite. FSU already has an investment bank considering whether to buy FSU athletics programs. This I believe will be the norm with schools licensing at least football and CBB to 3rd parties for an agreed-upon payment and with an indemnity against liability associated with football in particular. Will football and men's basketball athletes be students in any sense of the word? If so, perhaps there will be a football and basketball major course of study. I believe that additional conference consolidation will occur in the next 6 years or fewer. Edited August 23, 2023 by Jon Joseph 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OregonDucks No. 12 Share Posted August 23, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 1:19 PM, Haywarduck said: I quoted this before, but the future is already here, we just don't recognize it yet. Is Notre Dame the model all will follow? If so every team value is negotiated, which would further the competition? It does seem like we need to have programs like Oregon able to get more money than a WSU, Rutgers. We put more money in and have had more success, bring in more tv money . I definitely would think some kind of hybrid program will come to fruition. Maybe divisions like in euro soccer where you earn your way to the elite level, and nobody is sacred. If you lose too often, too many years, you're out. A beav program can rise up to the elite level. I can also agree some type of commissioner or control system needs to be in place. The NFL has controls, and the billionaires agree to it because they know if there was no commissioner they would all be broke, spend all their money on players. Right now we are headed in the direction of an uncontrolled NFL, no holds barred to build teams, programs. An answer will arise, and it may be already out there! The NFL has a salary cap and splits TV, merchandise and licensing revenues equally. What you are describing is more like MLB. One model creates an unequal playing field for those in the largest cities, while the other promotes parity. If I were in charge of the NCAA, I know which model I would prefer. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 13 Share Posted August 23, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 8:02 PM, Jon Joseph said: Cal and Stanford are both in a major media market but this did not entice Fox, CBS, and NBC to fund their entry into the B1G. Mostly because the bay area is not a college market. They have pro sports that draw all the attention. You would think that Cal and Stanford would have larger stadiums and be able to fill them over Oregon but they don't get anywhere near it. Does that tendency devalue the bay area market? It could be a factor in it all. I mean Oregon State and Washington State seem to have larger and more die hard fan bases than either of the bay area schools. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph No. 14 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Hayward, I already have riffed enough on your excellent comment. But I do want to note the incredible story about where Oregon is today. And where is it today? Oregon is sitting in the CFB cat-bird (no offense Puddles) seat. No matter how CFB sorts itself out, Oregon will not be left behind. (Unless it decides the game is no longer worth the candle.) Amazing for a program that for years produced some incredibly talented players like Norm Van Brocklin, Dan Fouts, Ahmad Rashad, and a personal favorite, Patriots tight end Russ Francis, and many others I did not mention but did not have a great deal of success on the football field. The marketing of Oregon has made the Oregon brand one of the elite brands in college football. A smaller-sized school in a smaller-sized city in the Northwest is now known both nationally and internationally. Playing frequently in and winning Rose Bowl games and playing for a BCS and a Playoff championship is something very few schools have accomplished. With the help of NIKE, Phil Knight, Bob Sasser, and an administration that supported the development of athletics across the board, Oregon football has ascended to much-watch TV and plays in a stadium that is acknowledged as a place with SEC-like fan support. Other smaller schools have had a moment in the sun, VA Tech, W. Virginia, and recently TCU, for example, but Oregon is the smaller school to have continued success, although occasionally interrupted success. One heck of a story and a whole lot to look forward to. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Ducky No. 15 Share Posted August 23, 2023 And that Jon is exactly why little brother and their fans are so jealous and hate The Ducks as much as they do. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Ducky No. 16 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Heck the Beavus couldn’t even keep this hometown gem going. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
