Some Perspective on Dan Lanning as a Head Coach

[Tandaian]

Dan Lanning is 37 years old and 1.5 seasons in as a head coach with 80% winning percentage. 

Average age of coaches (minus Bowden) for their 1st title is age 49.57, with winning percentage of 75.55.   Average season winning a title 7.72.

With Bowden added into the calculation                                 age 50.92, with winning percentage of 76.75.  Average season winning a title 9.47.

 

Most head coaches aren't who they are for the rest of their career 1.5 seasons in.  My perspective is we shouldn't start to worry for a couple more seasons.  Coaches will have growing pains.

 

1998 Tennesse   - Phillip Fulmer     48 years old, 7th season,        66-11-1    84.62%
1999 FSU           - Bobby Bowden   70 years old, 34th season, 304-85-4  77.53
2000 Oklahoma - Bob Stoops     40 Years old, 2nd season,       20-5        80.0%
2001 Miami        - Larry Coker    53 years old, 1st season,         12-0       100.0%
2002 tOSU         - Jim Tressel    50 years old, 17th season,       156-62-2  70.91%
2003 LSU          - Nick Saban     52 years old, 11th season,       82-39-1   67.21%
2004 USC         - Pete Carroll     53 years old, 4th season,          42-9        82.35%
2005 Texas       - Mack Brown     54 years old, 22nd season,   169-93-1  64.26%
2006 Florida     - Urban Meyer    42 years old, 6th season,      61-12       83.56%
2007 LSU         - Les Miles         54 years old, 7th season,         62-27        69.66%
2008 Florida     - Urban Meyer
2009 Alabama  - Nick Saban
2010 Auburn   - Gene Chizik    49 years old, 4th season,  27-24             52.94%
2011 Alabama  - Nick Saban
2012 Alabama  - Nick Saban
2013 FSU        - Jimbo Fisher   48 years old, 4th season,  45-10             81.82%
2014 tOSU       - Urban Meyer
2015 Alabama  - Nick Saban
2016 Clemson  - Dabo Swinney  47 years old, 9th season, 89-28           76.07%
2017 Alabama  - Nick Saban
2018 Clemson  - Nick Saban
2019 LSU      - Ed Orgeron     58 years old, 8th season,  56-36               60.87%
2020 Alabama  - Nick Saban
2021 Georgia  - Kirby Smart    46 years old, 6th season,  66-15             81.48%
2022 Georgia  - Kirby Smart

[1Ducker1]

Those are some interesting stats but they dont make the sting of losing to the Fuskies any easier especially to those of us that were Duck fans in the Don James era. 

No matter who our coach is, losing to the Fuskies or Beavers is inexcusable. The Ducks are a better organization than that.

Edited October 15, 2023 by 1Ducker1

[OregonDucks]

How were those other programs before those coaches took over?  Dan Lanning was handed the keys to a pretty successful program.  That is usually not the case with a head coaching change.

[Log Haulin]

This season isn't over. Lanning has this team poised to be conference champs and a shot at the cfp. Though I think Oregon is the one team in the Pac that gets left out CFP with 1 loss. I have reasons I will keep to myself. 

 

Coming into the season I had Ducks 11-1, conference champs and a cfp appearance. That is still well within grasp. 

 

This game in no way showed anyone who is the better team. Coming in it was a coin flip. And in my mind, it still isn't settled.

[OregonDucks]

On 10/15/2023 at 10:53 AM, Log Haulin said:

Coming into the season I had Ducks 11-1, conference champs and a cfp appearance. That is still well within grasp.

 

Anything less is a disappointing season, IMO.  Will Dan Lanning have a better team than he has this year, with an experienced, Heisman caliber QB running the offense?

[Haywarduck]

Ok, let's close the door and stop looking at the pavement screaming by. Time to look ahead through the windshield of the season and realize the view is pretty nice.

 

I personally remember saying weeks ago, and yesterday if we lose a tight game it may be the best thing for the program. Not the easiest thing, but maybe the best thing, and that was probably the most productive thought I had yesterday on my Ducks.

 

We should not be micro focusing on this game and I certainly hope the coaches and players aren't. It would be like driving with the door open, while looking down at the road. You will just get sick, probably get in an accident, at least do, or say something stupid.

 

Tandaian thanks for bringing some perspective to the minds of the faithful. Also how many head coaches actually win a National Title? Our boy wonder CK was certainly on the fast route to a title, and has floundered since. 

 

I will agree with the many who thought, in the days before the game, Dan Lanning has a formula to win big. That formula is based on the DNA of the Oregon Football Program. That is also what we saw yesterday, and it can work.

 

We must realize behind all those statistics that show a successful coach are many failures, and plenty of people who saw exactly how they could have done better. It also took a faithful fanbase to support that process. Let's get back off the ledge, and enjoy the view ahead, it's a long road!

[DanLduck]

I'm still on board the Lanning express.

I'm still a believer in him. Wouldn't want any other head coach. Gotta take the good with the bad.

 

But boy, that loss stung a bit. As bad as we feel, imagine how the seniors must feel.

The worst part to me is how similar to last year this loss was. Ouch.

Those who ignore the past are inclined to repeat it. Apparently. 

 

Positive takeaways for me:

 

Half-time adjustments. I thought the d was better 2nd half. Good job by coaches.

 

That goal line stand. Impressive. 

 

And I'm now a Penix believer. We pressured him, hit him hard, and he still made amazing throws with great accuracy. The kids a baller.

 

Season is far from lost. We have lots of football left. Now the most important game is the next one. 

One game at a time.

[Solar]

If you have to be bad at something when you are young, underestimating risk is a good one, because it's a scientific fact that age fixes that.

 

Young people can figure out all of the good things you can do, while old people can think about all of the bad things you shouldn't do. Stereotypically of course.

 

Dan Lanning has bet the farm multiple times personally climbing the coaching tree ladder. Life has rewarded his risk taking. It's going to take more harm than the average person for him to be more conservative, but I'm hopeful he will get to that balance.

 

It certainly beats the too conservative approach Cristobal had. Yuck 

Edited October 16, 2023 by Solar

[Desert Duck]

On 10/15/2023 at 1:20 PM, DanLduck said:

And I'm now a Penix believer. We pressured him, hit him hard, and he still made amazing throws with great accuracy. The kids a baller.

 

 

Penix was a beast... injured and hurting and he performed like a total stud.

 

As did Bo. Bo was, once again, his amazing self. 

 

And both guys seem like fine young men too. 

[OregonDucks]

Josh Pate had a good point on his Oregon/Washington post-game podcast.

 

First time head coaches used to start at smaller programs, outside of the national spotlight (e.g., Nick Saban at Toledo, Urban Meyer at Bowling Green), where they could make mistakes and learn from them, away from the national spotlight.  Many of the top coaches would slowly step their way up to elite programs over a number of years.

 

Now big time programs are hiring first time head coaches (e.g., Kirby Smart at Georgia, Ryan Day at Ohio State, Dan Lanning at Oregon). These first time coaches are bound to make mistakes early in their careers but the difference now is that they are doing so on national television with millions watching.

 

Anyway, I thought that it was an interesting take. The great ones will learn from their mistakes and grow.