mikethehiker No. 1 Share Posted October 31, 2023 The first playoff ranking will be released tomorrow. It's fun to try and predict the first one, because the subsequent ones are all adjustments based on incremental results. I'll take a swing at the Top 10: 1. Ohio State 8-0 (best overall resume, although it hasn't always looked pretty) 2. Florida St. 8-0 (wins at Clemson, and home against Duke and LSU resonate) 3. Washington 8-0 (best overall win against Oregon, solid non conference schedule) 4. Georgia 8-0 (will get dinged for non-conference schedule, but also defending champs) 5. Michigan 8-0 (they should be punished for a lot of things and bad non-conference schedule is one of those things) 6. Oregon 7-1 (if you're going to lose, lose dramatically to a team ranked ahead of you on the road) 7. Texas 7-1 (big win at a struggling Alabama early on, respectable loss) 8. Alabama 7-1 (slowly but surely recovering from early loss to Texas) 9. Oklahoma 7-1 (tough good loss on the road in crazy weather conditions) 10. Penn State 7-1 (I wish I only had to play 2 tough games per year and lose convincingly each time) What's your prediction? 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 2 Share Posted October 31, 2023 I agree, sixth is right for this week. 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Log Haulin No. 3 Share Posted October 31, 2023 UGA hasn't lost in almost 3 years.they are the reigning b2b champs. I know they "don't " consider past seasons, for good reason, but... UGA #1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Ducky No. 4 Share Posted October 31, 2023 I agree with Hauler of logs. Georgia is number one until someone beats them but loosing the best player in the nation might be their Achilles Heel. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayDuckDad Moderator No. 5 Share Posted October 31, 2023 1 Georgia 2 Tosu 3 FSU 4 Michigan 5 Fusky 6 OBD 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven A Moderator No. 6 Share Posted October 31, 2023 My cheat sheet was listening to Dave Bartoo with Canzano yesterday: 1. OSU 2. FSU 3. Mich 4 /5. Georgia or ewe dub (he says ewe dub deserves it [SOS 104 and a top 25 W] but Georgia [SOS 108 no top 25 Ws] might get it just cuz of who they are) Next are the 1 loss teams 6. Texas, 2 top 25 Ws 7. 'Bama, 2 top 25 Ws next three probably, not sure of the order but he would put it 8. Oklahoma, 1 top 25 W 9. Ole Miss, 1 top 25 W 10. Oregon, 1 top 25 W Committee looks at number of losses top 25 Ws, ranking when they meet, not when you played them quality Ws, teams over 500, record when they meet, not when you played them margin of victory SOS, but not based upon ESPN's rankings, didn't say whose Bad Ls, teams under 500, record when they meet, not when you played them Later on, Conference Championships Claims no "eye test", but doesn't margin of victory seem like that? 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
fred flintstone No. 7 Share Posted October 31, 2023 If Oregon wins out they replace the loser of the Oh St vs Mich game in the playoffs. If they lose another it's a good bowl. Lose two more......where is that toilet bowl cleaner. The key is the OOC record of the pac 12 this year.....in past years that was used against the pac 12 winner....this year using the same committee reasoning they have no choice but to include whoever the pac 12 winner might be. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven A Moderator No. 8 Share Posted October 31, 2023 On 10/31/2023 at 7:55 AM, fred flintstone said: If Oregon wins out they replace the loser of the Oh St vs Mich game in the playoffs. Agreed, win out and in. I don't care who we replace above us. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pennsylvania Duck Moderator No. 9 Share Posted October 31, 2023 Where Ducks stand in updated 2023 National Championship betting odds There are few teams in the nation who are being talked about as much as the Oregon Ducks to start this week in the world of college football. After their 35-6 stomping over the Utah Utes in a top-15 matchup on Saturday, Dan Lanning and his team proved to the world that they are among the best teams in the nation, and a serious threat to make it to the College Football Playoff later this year. There is a lot of football left to be played between now and when the final playoff rankings are released, but the Ducks look to be headed in the right direction. They will need to win the remaining games on their schedule in order to make it to the Pac-12 Championship Game, and a potential rematch against the No. 5 Washington Huskies then stands between them and a spot in the playoff. Then comes the tests that players dream about, going up against the likes of schools like Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida State, or Alabama, depending on which schools ultimately get into the playoff. So what are the odds that the Ducks can get there, and ultimately win a national championship in 2023? That’s a big question. Here’s what the Las Vegas oddsmakers think the answer should be, according to BetMGM... Oregon Football: Ducks updated standings in national championship odds DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM There are few teams in the nation who are being talked about as much as the Oregon Ducks to start this week in the world of... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDuck Moderator No. 10 Share Posted October 31, 2023 College football bowl projections: Oregon supplants Washington in playoff field Doing bowl projections is easy when the four teams in the College Football Playoff all win on Saturday. This, however, is not a normal week because there is going to be a change among the top four. Oregon is moving up and replacing Washington as the fourth member of the semifinal field. The change might raise some eyebrows as the Huskies defeated the Ducks earlier this month and are still unbeaten. But after two lackluster performances by Washington against Arizona State and Stanford - the two worst teams in the Pac-12 - the expectation is that a likely rematch in the conference title game will go a different way. The change is all about the Huskies. Oregon looked dominant in its thrashing of Utah last week, and only home games against Southern California and Oregon State appear to be possible obstacles to reaching the Pac-12 title game with one loss. Another result working in the Ducks' favor was Oklahoma's loss to Kansas that ensures no team in the Big 12 will finish unbeaten. That means a one-loss champion from the Pac-12 should be in the field, given the overall strength of the league this season. College football bowl projections: Oregon supplants Washington in playoff field WWW.USATODAY.COM None of the teams projected to be in the College Football Playoff last week lost. However, there is a major change with Oregon passing Washington. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar No. 11 Share Posted October 31, 2023 (edited) I'm kind of thinking the committee will punt where they can. Meaning let the W/L record, and margin of victory drive the rankings where the games left can sort it all out. So Georgia and Michigan at the top then FSU, tOSU and UW, then Oregon. UW could surprise their way ahead of OSU or FSU based on PAC12 OOC dominance. I can't wait until next year when just possibly they can pay more attention to who is playing the best at the end of the season instead of who played the most consistent over 12 games. Why define college kids by the worst they are capable of instead of the best they are capable of? Never has made any sense. Sorry. Edited October 31, 2023 by Solar Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar No. 12 Share Posted October 31, 2023 On 10/31/2023 at 10:20 AM, Pennsylvania Duck said: Where Ducks stand in updated 2023 National Championship betting odds There are few teams in the nation who are being talked about as much as the Oregon Ducks to start this week in the world of college football. After their 35-6 stomping over the Utah Utes in a top-15 matchup on Saturday, Dan Lanning and his team proved to the world that they are among the best teams in the nation, and a serious threat to make it to the College Football Playoff later this year. There is a lot of football left to be played between now and when the final playoff rankings are released, but the Ducks look to be headed in the right direction. They will need to win the remaining games on their schedule in order to make it to the Pac-12 Championship Game, and a potential rematch against the No. 5 Washington Huskies then stands between them and a spot in the playoff. Then comes the tests that players dream about, going up against the likes of schools like Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida State, or Alabama, depending on which schools ultimately get into the playoff. So what are the odds that the Ducks can get there, and ultimately win a national championship in 2023? That’s a big question. Here’s what the Las Vegas oddsmakers think the answer should be, according to BetMGM... Oregon Football: Ducks updated standings in national championship odds DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM There are few teams in the nation who are being talked about as much as the Oregon Ducks to start this week in the world of... Oddsmakers are nuts. 50% championship probability between OSU and Michigan? UW odds at 2%? Oregon at 6%? Bettors still think PAC12 is trash. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just Ducky No. 13 Share Posted October 31, 2023 Just win games. It’s obvious that the strength of scheduling doesn’t matter and never has. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven A Moderator No. 14 Share Posted October 31, 2023 On 10/31/2023 at 12:00 PM, Solar said: 50% championship probability between OSU and Michigan? Seems about right. 1 of them gets in. They are both really good teams. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikethehiker Author No. 15 Share Posted October 31, 2023 (edited) Appreciate everyone's thoughts. I don't think the playoff committee is trying to predict the future today. It's a snapshot on what each team has accomplished so far. It will be telling what the committee does with Washington. They haven't played inspired football the last two weeks, while other teams struggled earlier. The committee likely won't care, but the bottom of the PAC-12 is looking really strong now and there is truly not one gimme game for anyone in the conference. Cal, ASU, Arizona, and Stanford are all playing with a ton of confidence right now which may land Colorado at the bottom of the conference at year end. How could you leave the only unbeaten team in the deepest conference in the country outside the Top 4? Edited October 31, 2023 by mikethehiker Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar No. 16 Share Posted October 31, 2023 (edited) On 10/31/2023 at 12:35 PM, Steven A said: Seems about right. 1 of them gets in. They are both really good teams. It's just a stretch that there is a 50% chance of one of the two winning it all, especially when they have to play each other before they even get into the playoffs. One will have one loss. Edited October 31, 2023 by Solar Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 17 Share Posted October 31, 2023 6 Pac-12 teams ranked. 1. Ohio State 2. Michigan 3. Georgia 4. FSU 5, Washington 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Texas 9. Alabama 10. Ole Miss 11. Penn State 12. Mizzou 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 18 Share Posted October 31, 2023 On 10/31/2023 at 3:35 PM, Steven A said: Seems about right. 1 of them gets in. They are both really good teams. Michigan SOS - 110! I think 11-1 OH ST will possibly have a chance to get in but not 11-1 Michigan. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 19 Share Posted October 31, 2023 On 10/31/2023 at 3:00 PM, Solar said: Oddsmakers are nuts. 50% championship probability between OSU and Michigan? UW odds at 2%? Oregon at 6%? Bettors still think PAC12 is trash. I think the computer algorithms take into account the remaining schedules. Cannibal? 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
