The ESPN Playoff Predictor and Oregon

[Thomallister1291]

I've decided to toy around with the ESPN Playoff Predictor now that we are in the final week of the regular season, I've decided to pick every possible scenario with Oregon winning, and it seems that in every single one we end up in the playoffs, don't know why but I won't complain.

 

College Football Playoff Predictor

WWW.ESPN.COM

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Pick the winners of each Power 5 conference title game using the Allstate Playoff Predictor and see how it affects your favorite CFP...

 

[Grandpa Duck]

Thank you for that, Thom.  I'll sleep better knowing what you found.

[EastBayDuckDad]

Fun exercise but I don't believe for a microsecond the CFP committee ices out a one loss SEC champ Alabama if Michigan, FSU, Texas and Oregon all win. That probability was set at 22% and the UGA v Bama spread is only 5 pts, so it's not out of the realm of possibility.

 

Would Bama leapfrog a Texas team they lost to at home (unlikely) or could Texas and Alabama get in with Pac-12 champion Oregon left out?

 

The new CFP rankings coming out tomorrow should clarify this and tell us how much cred Oregon has, but nothing is a lock. Personally I believe Oregon wins and they're in but this is the one scenario that makes me uncomfortable.

[JDuck]

12-1 conference champs have always fared well to the committee.  Winning your conference matters.  We beat the muttlets, especially if we win big, and we should be in.  Root for Oklahoma State, Georgia, and Louisville on Saturday.

[2002duck]

On 11/27/2023 at 12:36 PM, EastBayDuckDad said:

I don't believe for a microsecond the CFP committee ices out a one loss SEC champ Alabama

Some pundits say Alabama might not make it even if they win, but I highly doubt that. Texas has the most to worry about. They need two spots in the top 4 to get in. Oregon just needs to take Washington's spot. There's a remote chance the Committee puts in 12-1 Alabama and a 12-1 Georgia, but I doubt that as well. 

[Mic]

IDK, guys.  After watching Alabama beat a so-so team (Auburn) by a fluke, a real screw-up  I just don't see this team upsetting Georgia in the title game; Nick Sabin or no Nick Sabin.

 

 That was Auburn's game and they lost it with a terrible defensive decision by the coaches.  This isn't the Alabama team we've all come to expect.  Georgia may be vulnerable this year, but not (imo) to this Alabama team.  I hope I'm right.

[Desert Duck]

On 11/27/2023 at 1:50 PM, JDuck said:

Root for Oklahoma State, Georgia, and Louisville on Saturday.

 

 

Oregon is seriously due to get some help from some other teams out there. We've gotten nuthin' as far as help from other teams so far -- at least that I can think of. 

 

I'm speaking especially to Auburn for their complete last second meltdown on Saturday. 

 

Sheesh!

[Ktmguy2018]

Alabama needed a MIRACLE of a play in the last seconds to defeat a .500 Auburn team.  Milroe has NOT faced a defense like he will face with Georgia (even though the Georgia defense is not as elite as past years).  I absolutely do not see Alabama winning that game.  Call me nuts but a "not very impressive" Texas team beat them.  Yeah, I get it, Texas only has one loss.  But their games (except for TT) have not been pretty.

 

I know Saban is a GOAT but the Crimson Tide will stop rolling after the SEC championship.  And the Texas - Ok St game will be closer than most people think.   Unless bad OK St shows up.  

 

So, with Alabama destined to lose, Texas's best win is over a two loss Alabama team while Oregon knocks off an undefeated Washington ranked #3.  

 

This is Oregon's to lose in my opinion!