Jon Joseph Moderator No. 1 Share Posted November 29, 2023 (edited) The Gurus of Grapevine have uttered their 5th and penultimate 2023 college football playoff (PO) rankings. (Many of the statistics shown below are from an article on ESPN+, paywall, by David Hale. An article 'justifying' Alabama, Ohio State, and Texas fans not being happy with OREGON being the top-ranked 1-loss team.) Teams 1 through 4, 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3, Washington, and 4, Florida State win their respective conference champ game and are in the final Final 4. But who doesn't want to see Puddles punch the puppies in the mouth, and who wants to see something as mundane as all of the four 12-0 teams going 13-0? Meanwhile, folks in the southeast, including Paul Finebaum, and livestock in the southwest, including Bevo, are not too happy with Oregon being the highest-ranked 1-loss team. And based on almost every metric, these folks, along with more than a few angry folks from a school down south in Columbus, Ohio, have a legitimate gripe. Friend Puddles is on a High-5-Zipline due to the Eye Test. Puddles ranking to date is the triumph of human evaluation over machines. A tech-challenged guy like me simply loves this! Perhaps, an objective look at the 4 1-loss PO contenders. FPI - Top 35 Wins - Equivalent to Quad 1 Wins used by the CBB Committee. - Alabama - 5/ Texas - 5/ Ohio State - 3/ OREGON - 3. (Note, Wins over the Committee's top 25 as will be revealed on Sunday, 12/3, are often the result of how the Committee views similarly situated teams. For example, 21. Tennessee, 23. Clemson, and 25. K State all have 4 losses. Utah has 4 losses, 3 on the road at Committee-ranked 3. UW, 15. Arizona, and 20. Oregon State, as well as a win over a Florida team that Tennessee lost to. K State lost its final regular season game to unranked Iowa State. Utah defeated unranked Colorado. The Eye Test is art and not science.) Wins Over Bowl Eligible Teams - Alabama - 7, Texas - 7, Ohio State - 6, OREGON - 5. Wins Over Winning P5 Opponents - Alabama - 5, Texas - 4, Ohio State - 4, OREGON - 3. Strength of Record - Ohio State - 5, Texas - 6, Alabama - 7, OREGON - 8. - You can throw a blanket here. Strength of Schedule - Ohio State - 6, Texas - 13, Alabama - 31, OREGON - 62. - WOW! From 8 teams ranked to 4 teams ranked, the Pac-12 limped to the finish line. Game Control - Texas - 2, OREGON - 3, Ohio State - 4, Alabama - 9. - The OREGON wins have been impressive. Current ESPN FPI Ranking - 1. Ohio State, 3. OREGON, 6. Alabama, 7. Texas - The only possible explanation here is GIGO. Where is Michigan? See below. Current SP+ Ranking - [1. Michigan, 2. Georgia] 3. Ohio State, 4. OREGON, 7. Texas, 8. Alabama. - ESPN Bill Connolly's SP+ would have OREGON, Georgia. and 2 B1G teams in the Final 4. There is justification for fans of Ohio State, Texas, and Alabama not being happy with OREGON being ranked #5. But again, this is art, not science. When we had a heavy dose of science back in 2001, the computers hosed OREGON out of a BCS champ game against Miami played in the Rose Bowl. Going to a 12-team PO in 2024 will most likely ensure that no deserving team is left out. But run the field for 2024 using the latest Committee rankings and Oklahoma Sooners fans would not be happy. "Bowls, Polls, and Tattered Souls." GO DUCKS! PUNCH THE PUPPIES! Edited November 29, 2023 by Jon Joseph 2 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LB48 No. 2 Share Posted November 29, 2023 Age old west coast bias. 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
woundedknees No. 3 Share Posted November 29, 2023 (edited) On 11/29/2023 at 12:13 PM, LB48 said: Age old west coast bias. It's really true, born out by checking the myriad times undeserving west coast teams have nudged out the perennial powerhouses like Alabama, MeatChicken, tOSU and Chokelahomer for choice spots in the playoffs... Oh, wait! I'm actually amazed Oregon has been ranked as high as they are this season, given the relative lack of nationally televised coverage they have received. Edited November 29, 2023 by woundedknees Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven A Moderator No. 4 Share Posted November 29, 2023 Go Ducks. Keep the committee focused on the eye test. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckman2 No. 5 Share Posted November 29, 2023 I don't agree with threads on here arguing why we shouldn’t make the playoffs. The facts are 1. We have one close win, to Alabama and Texas’ 3 apiece. Alabama’s 14 point win over USF was pretty bad, too. 2. Our only loss will be to Washington, whose only loss will be to…….. Oregon. On the other hand, Alabama has lost to Texas, who lost to OU, who lost to Oklahoma State, who lost to South Alabama. South Alabama is a 6-6 Sun Belt team. You can’t find too many loss chains more awful than that. 3. The PAC had 8 ranked teams when conference play started. PAC teams have only fallen out of the rankings because of their results against other PAC teams. 4. Ranking 8-4 Tennessee (which lost to Florida) and not ranking Utah (who beat Florida) was an arbitrary choice by the committee that really doesn’t make sense. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
QuackyQuack No. 6 Share Posted November 29, 2023 On 11/29/2023 at 12:58 PM, Duckman2 said: Good Lord. Why do we seriously have threads on here arguing why we shouldn’t make the playoffs? Because we have been through this before. The strength of schedule is the big concern no matter how many "Transitive Property" posts you make. The eye test is what the committee is going off of and we are thankful for that. Just need to take care of business on Friday and we are in. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cartm25 No. 7 Share Posted November 29, 2023 On 11/29/2023 at 1:58 PM, Duckman2 said: 3. The PAC had 8 ranked teams when conference play started. PAC teams have only fallen out of the rankings because of their results against other PAC teams. This is a great point that I hope the committee considers. An EXTREME example to make a point: Imagine for a moment, if you will, an alternate universe where the following 2023 teams are all in the same conference: - Georgia - Michigan - Washington - Florida St. - Oregon - Ohio State - Texas - Alabama - Missouri - Penn State - Ole Miss - Oklahoma After a 9-game conference regular season playing each other, many of these teams (currently the best 12 teams in the Nation) would be unranked. And the top teams would have their "ranking" hurt because their conference opponents fell out of the rankings. But no one would argue that LSU, Louisville, or Arizona would be close to the top four of the list of teams above. YET, in our "alternate universe", LSU, Louisville, and Arizona would be higher ranked undefeated or 1-loss teams than the teams in the "conference" of powerhouses. As @Duckman2 points out, I believe, to a lesser extent, this is what happened to the P-12. A higher number of quality teams in a conference has an outsized negative impact compared top-heavy conferences. 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grandpa Duck No. 8 Share Posted November 29, 2023 There are many others who are mostly unbiased who think the CFP has Oregon’s ranking spot on. For the purposes of participating with more than 175 others in my nephew Pete’s weekly college football pool, one of the sources that I rely upon for my ten weekly picks is the Massey College Football Ranking Composite, available at masseyratings.com. Wikipedia states the following about Massey: “Kenneth Massey is an American sports statistician known for his development of a methodology for ranking and rating sports teams in a variety of sports. His ratings have been a part of the Bowl Championship Series since the 1999 season. He is an assistant professor of mathematics at Carson–Newman University in Tennessee.” The Massey composite is made up of seventy-nine, yes (79), different ranking “authorities”, including those you may have heard of, like USA Today, Associated Press, and Jeff Sagarin. There are about 76 sports guessers, probably using self-designed computer programs, whom you could care less about, like Joby Nitty Gritty and PerformanZ. Our Beloved Ducks are ranked #5 by the College Football Playoffs (CFP), #5 by the AP, and #5 by USA (coaches). The average Duck rank for all 79 contributors to Massey’s list is 5.33. The range of ranking is #1, by Born and Moore, to #10 by Phelan Power and Power Up Rankings. CFP is not part of the Massey compilation. To compare, Michigan has an average ranking of 1.39, and a range of #1 to #3, and Georgia has an average of 3.35 with a range of #1 through #9. The Massey top ten is: 1. Michigan 2. Georgia 3. Ohio State 4. Washington 5. Oregon 6. Texas 7. Florida State 8. Alabama 9. Penn State 10. Oklahoma 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mic No. 9 Share Posted November 30, 2023 And here I thought all this soul-searching, mind-bending what-ifs would settle down after the last poll left Oregon at #5 and UW at #3! Hah! What'd I know..... it seems to have increased it. Or is this just a way to work off the nervous jitters? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Author Moderator No. 10 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Pawalll and his buddies are in meltdown mode with Oregon being ranked 5th and ahead of Bama. This after Bama barely defeated a 6-6 Auburn team that was run off of its home field by New Mexico State. The win over 4-loss Tennessee in Tuscaloosa was huge but Oregon's destruction of 4-loss Utah in SLC was not. Right. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OregonDucks No. 11 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Puddles = live duck mascot in the 1920s The Duck = The University of Oregon’s mascot The Duck GODUCKS.COM The Duck 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
