The College Football Playoff Committee Got it Right!

[FishDuck Article]

“Disgusted and infuriated,” said Coach Mike Norvell when he saw that Alabama got the last playoff spot and his FSU Seminoles were left out by the CFP committee. Injured FSU quarterback Jordan Travis posted on social media that he was: “Devastated. Heartbroken.” Coach Norvell said further: “What is the point of playing games? Do you tell players to quit if ...

 

The College Football Playoff Committee Got it Right! | FishDuck

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“Disgusted and infuriated,” said Coach Mike Norvell when he saw that Alabama got the last playoff spot and his FSU Seminoles were left...

[Smith72]

After reading your analysis, Mr. Whitty, I have to agree.  Thank you for writing this well presented explanation.

 

The only fair thing in the future is to go to a 16 team bracket.  I know next year will be a 12 team bracket. 12 is so much better than 4.

 

However, there will possibly be just as much controversy about which teams get the top four spots and a first round bye.  Include 4 more teams and make everyone play a first round game.

 

"Just win" your games and ranking doesn't matter. No one has an advantage by resting the first round.

 

I won't hold my breath.  Will the NCAA do anything that makes sense!

 

 

[Charles Fischer]

Great series of articles by Mike Whitty, that comes to a logical conclusion today.  I've learned a ton from his research, and am grateful for all the time he put into creating these articles for us.

[Grandpa Duck]

I agree that giving teams 1-4 a first round bye will create controversy.  And, teams 13 and 14 will feel as cheated as FSU feels this year.  Any method of choosing playoff teams where humans do the selection will anger those left out.

 

There is a solution that NCAA president Charlie Baker has written about that takes away selection by a committee and uses only wins on the field.  I’m writing about that for Charles to consider for publication in January.  But, even if that solution finds its way to adoption, fans of a losing team will cry that the officials were on the take.

[1Funduck]

Absolutely do NOT agree. The second criteria is demonstrably flawed. Strength of Schedule is subjective at best because it starts with a ranking in the preseason. Ranking teams is an opinion based process..period. It's incredibly biased. By the committees own words, these teams aren't the same in week 2 as they are at the end of the season.
 

Why? Because you have to play the games to get the team to gel. Then they go and destroy their own argument and say that Texas should be above Alabama because they beat them 2-1/2 months ago? Doesn't Alabama deserve to be above Texas for beating Georgia? Wouldn't Georgia beat Texas? Again, says who? It's opinion based when it's convenient.

 

So, which is it? Is it the overall record and the head to head? Or is it the opinion of what you THINK would happen on the field in the future? Doesn't FSU's stellar defense deserve the opportunity to shut down a playoff contender? 2011 Alabama-LSU thinks so. A game where field goals were the only offense because the Defense was out of this world.
 

Think of it. Alabama offense couldn't score a TD. They should never have played in the Championship game. Their offense was.... Oh wait! Not only did they play but the WON the 2012 Championship. They didn't get there by offense, but by defense. Offense was fine but defense was otherworldly. 

 

Did Utah deserve to play Alabama? Mighty mouse against vaunted Alabama? My opinion is.... Who cares? They played and it was settled on the field. 

 

So, should FSU get a chance because they are undefeated. Should they play in the playoffs because their defense is fully intact? Should the go to the dance because they're conference Champions from a Power 5 conference? 

 

The argument is flawed. One metric makes the argument moot. Would FSU beat Michigan? I think...who cares what anyone thinks. The reality is an undefeated Power 5 Champion won't get a chance to prove it. After all, Michigan's 1/2 without a single pass says you aren't good enough without your starting QB.

 

This argument truly is aggravating. 350 million opinions tells CFB who plays whom at the end of the season. Rigged.

[SoGaDawg]

On 12/22/2023 at 10:52 AM, 1Funduck said:

Absolutely do NOT agree. The second criteria is demonstrably flawed. Strength of Schedule is subjective at best because it starts with a ranking in the preseason. Ranking teams is an opinion based process..period. It's incredibly biased. By the committees own words, these teams aren't the same in week 2 as they are at the end of the season. Why? Because you have to play the games to get the team to gel. Then they go and destroy their own argument and say that Texas should be above Alabama because they beat them 2-1/2 months ago? Doesn't Alabama deserve to be above Texas for beating Georgia? Wouldn't Georgia beat Texas? Again, says who? It's opinion based when it's convenient.

 

So, which is it? Is it the overall record and the head to head? Or is it the opinion of what you THINK would happen on the field in the future? Doesn't FSU's stellar defense deserve the opportunity to shut down a playoff contender? 2011 Alabama-LSU thinks so. A game where field goals were the only offense because the Defense was out of this world. Think of it. Alabama offense couldn't score a TD. They should never have played in the Championship game. Their offense was.... Oh wait! Not only did they play but the WON the 2012 Championship. They didn't get there by offense, but by defense. Offense was fine but defense was otherworldly. 

 

Did Utah deserve to play Alabama? Mighty mouse against vaunted Alabama? My opinion is.... Who cares? They played and it was settled on the field. 

 

So, should FSU get a chance because they are undefeated. Should they play in the playoffs because their defense is fully intact? Should the go to the dance because they're conference Champions from a Power 5 conference? 

 

The argument is flawed. One metric makes the argument moot. Would FSU beat Michigan? I think...who cares what anyone thinks. The reality is an undefeated Power 5 Champion won't get a chance to prove it. After all, Michigan's 1/2 without a single pass says you aren't good enough without your starting QB.

 

This argument truly is aggravating. 350 million opinions tells CFB who plays whom at the end of the season. Rigged.

I agree with much that you point out.  In my opinion, the decision that the committee made shows no continuity or consistency and was a terrible decision.  
 

It looks kinda like the committee uses the guidelines that best fits the result they want to achieve.  I’m sure like most things, it ultimately comes down to money.  And also that the committee didn’t want to leave out the SEC.  

 

To me, FSU earned the right and should have gotten a chance.  But it was thought that they weren’t good enough and got left out.  Like you said, it’s all subjective opinions.  
 

But if we are being honest, how does the number one team fall 5 spots by loosing to Bama by 3?  If we are selecting the best 4 teams, how is GA out?  If GA were to play either of the 4 playoff teams in a bowl, how many would be favored to beat GA?  Likely GA would be favored against them all.  
 

I’m not advocating that GA should be in, I’m just pointing out the hypocrisy of the narrative.  GA lost when they shouldn’t have and unfortunately circumstances this season kept them out.  
 

And I’ve heard many analysts say “well it isn’t about being fair”!  This is hypocritical as well.  Everything we are supposed to teach players should revolve around fair sportsmanship and integrity for the game.  Yet at the highest level we demonstrate something completely unfair and say it’s okay!

 

I’ve no love for FSU, in fact I grew up despising them.  I grew up about an hour from Tallahassee and had to continuously hear about how great the Noles are!  But they absolutely got hosed!!!  Looking at past rankings and selections, I just can’t see it any other way than FSU got royally screwed!  

Edited December 22, 2023 by SoGaDawg

[Jon Joseph]

Terrific take, Mike. 

 

SOS is not subjective at all come season's end. It's based on on-field results for the entirety of the season. The Committee would do itself a favor by using a standard SOS matrix instead of 13 folks having their own opinion concerning schedule strength. It would also help the Committee's credibility to release one and only one ranking after the conference championship games are played. 

 

The Committee's number one task is to determine the 4 best teams and not the 4 most deserving teams. Do FSU and UGA have a beef, yes. But the 4 team Invitational is not a Playoff. It is not a Playoff when there are 4 spots for 5 Power 5 champions. 

 

12 teams will help. But projecting out using the ultimate Committee rankings in 2023, should No. 16 Arizona get the 4 seed and a bye as the B12 champion? And with the demise of the Pac-12, does make any sense to have the top 6 conference champions in the field? Liberty and AAC champ SMU would knock out two of Penn State, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma. And with Penn State, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma all 10-2, how do you separate these teams? PSU is No. 9 with its best win against Iowa. Oklahoma is No. 12 with a win over Texas. Right?

 

I agree with friend Smith72, in 2026 the Playoff will go to 16 teams with one spot reserved for a team outside of the Power 4 that isn't otherwise ranked in the top 16. The season for all teams will start on what is now Week 0. And I expect that the players will share in the Playoff revenue which will be huge. And ESPN will not be calling the shots as the expanded PO will be out to bid for all media companies. This could lead to the elimination of interim rankings which would be fine. Folks will have the AP and other polls to beef about. And 'Dick Vitale' talking heads will go off about No. 17 being hosed over. 

 

Great articles, Mike. Thanks again. 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[MicroBurst61]

Hmmmmm...4 Team Playoff for 5 power conferences.  The minute that was adopted the importance of being a conference champion was immediately diluted. 

 

A conference champion was Always going to be left out, sometimes more than one depending upon success of independents or two undefeated teams in the SEC.  PAC 12 Champion was usually the odd man out because of...perceptions.  FSU is now feeling our pain, but worse cause they are unblemished.

 

Well PAC is now on a rebuild (good luck OSU/WSU) but will never be viewed as a power conference again.  12 team playoff guarantees 3-4 teams from each of the new Power2, conference champion from both the BIG12 and ACC (until the ACC is collapsed and raided), and 3-5 from independents and G5 schools.

 

Still a popularity contest and we as fans will always root out controversy in regards to our teams selection or placement.  However, I won't feel too badly if a three loss Duck team, finishing 3rd or 4th in the B1G, happens to NOT make the field, than my frustration of a year like this that could have played out differently, if we only had a playoff spot.

 

So I guess the powers that be, after working decades to get to this point in determining a national champion, have what they want (for now).   There will still be controversy but the most capable teams of winning it all in any given year, will now have that chance to do just that.

 

Did the committee get it right?  Probably not, but working with their self imposed parameters, they provided probably the most competitive matchups.  And after all, TV Executives value that most of all.

 

Go FSU!  Prove you belonged by taking out Georgia with your Backup QB!  See you in the playoffs next year.

 

And as always.  GO DUCKS!

[Charles Fischer]

The new PAC-Conference is not a power conference, but simply a Mountain West+ in my view.

[Jon Joseph]

On 12/22/2023 at 1:49 PM, Charles Fischer said:

The new PAC-Conference is not a power conference, but simply a Mountain West+ in my view.

And also in the Power 2 and the ACC and B12 POV. 

[Jon Joseph]

Mike, another POV that somewhat differs from your take and my agreement with your take.

 

Did the 2023 College Football Playoff Committee Get it Right?

BLEACHERREPORT.COM

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Pick four teams. How difficult could it be? That is the mission of the 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee. While it can be a thankless…

 

[EastBayDuckDad]

Great and well researched article. I agree with Mike that the committee got it right given the constraints they worked under and that it wasn't rigged.

 

What a fitting way to usher in the 2024 12 team CFP. The main argument against the expanded field has always been that it wouldn't change the eventual NC as the best team was always in the top four. Not so true this year as Georgia could beat anyone on a given day and FSU was 13-0 and did win the ACC.

 

You can argue that it's all about the dollars with the best teams playing as many as 16 or 17 games. Let's face it, the talent arms race created by NIL, eight digit HC salaries and the portal make college football NFL Lite. It's the world we now live in, good and bad. Oregon might as well use the tools available to it and prosper.

 

With the demise of the Pac-12, there are four power conferences left standing. In the future each conference champion will be in the CFP along with the runners up in at least the B1G and SEC, Notre Dame (maybe) and a few G5 flashes in the pan. The ultimate NC may very well still come from the champ of one of the P4, specifically the B1G or the SEC. But no more potential winners getting left out and no more whining about not getting in.