FishDuck Article Administrator No. 1 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Dan Lanning has a lot of pressure entering this offseason. Sure, the new year will determine weather the Ducks land a major bowl win, but the offseason is where the pressure really starts to ramp up. Lanning is the first coach since Mike Bellotti to not win a conference championship in their second season (besides Willie Taggert who only coached one season). ... How Oregon Can Win the 2024/25 Championship | FishDuck FISHDUCK.COM Dan Lanning has a lot of pressure entering this offseason. Sure, the new year will determine weather the Ducks land a major bowl win, but... 2 1 1 Two Sites: FishDuck and the Our Beloved Ducks forum, The only "Forum with Decorum!" And All-Volunteer? What a wonderful community of Duck fans! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haywarduck Moderator No. 2 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Great stuff, and I think you are right about the pressure on Lanning. Winning the games he should is wonderful, something we have demanded. Stacking the statistics up against lesser talent is solid, but winning the big games makes the difference between wonderfully solid, and elite. First off winning the recruiting wars is also excellent. You can't become elite without the army and Lanning is building an army. This isn't his problem, nor does it seem it will ever be. Lanning can recruit, there is no argument to be made against his ability or prioritization. Now then there is leadership of the players and coaches. I would say his leadership of his players is flawless so far. His ability to recruit the right guys and build a functional culture is without dispute. Players want to run through walls for the guy, and what he is selling is pure, and the players are disciplined as we have seen on and off the field. The final piece is his lieutenants and this is where there could become weaknesses. Every assistant can recruit, there is no question there, that has been shown and was a priority in hiring these guys. The question is can they coach, develop talent, create strong units, and manage those units come game day? I would say this is where Lanning will begin to see pressure as his job will never be in question. What happens when the defense doesn't rise up to elite level against the BIG teams we play? Will he be willing to look beyond the ability to recruit and prioritize what happens on game day? I think building a functional system Chip Kelly walked into and Debar brought with him takes years. One of the weaknesses of hiring an assistant as head coach is he can't bring that with him. The problem is he has to be willing to make game day wins the number one priority, not just recruiting. If there is a weak lieutenant will he be strong enough to make a move to hire a better game coach in whatever area that is? We don't know if that is truly a problem yet. Lanning has to be given time to develop his systems and processes with the coaches he has. I will say if the level of talent he is bringing in doesn't win the big games then he needs to start looking at his coordinators and question if they have what it takes. I want to win the big games, and that isn't just winning the recruiting battles. 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 3 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Thanks, Ryan. Very good look ahead. To play for let alone win a CFB title requires a Blue Chip Roster, which Oregon has, great coaching, and luck. Bama is the PO 4-seed and the betting favorite among the wise guys to win it all but Bama isn't there except for a miracle walk-off TD pass against old rival Auburn. And Bama defeated USF(!) in a one-score game. Also, with the disparity in CFB scheduling, it helps to have a 'manageable' schedule. Bill Connelly's SP+ ranking of the 15 most difficult schedules in CFB in 2024, includes 7 B1G teams. Florida comes in first. 2. USC/ 3. Northwestern/ 5. Purdue/ 8. Washington/ 12. UCLA/ 13. OREGON/ 15. Michigan State. Florida will not do so but the B1G teams will play 9 conference games. Oregon does not have an easy playoff row to hoe in 2024, including a stretch of 8 games in a row until an idle week before the UW game. And playing an OOC game on the road against your arch-rival in Corvallis instead of an 8th home game does not make the job any easier. If Oregon made the PO field as an at-large team, the champ game would be the Ducks' 16th game of the 2024 season. Oregon makes it and wins the B1G champ game it would no doubt have a 1st round bye but with the champ game, Oregon would still be playing its 16th game in the PO title game. You not only have to be good, you have to be lucky, including on the injury front, and have a deep roster. And the 9 PO champs to date, have all played 8 conference games. And other than for Ohio State (SIGH) in year one, all of the winners have come from the recruiting-rich southeast part of the country. The first 4 PO games in 2024 will be played on the home field of the teams seeded 5 through 8. Road teams will be playing in tough venues and perhaps in bad weather. 2024/25 Quarterfinal Venues - 12/31/24 - Fiesta Bowl. 1/1/25 - Peach, Rose and Sugar Bowls. Semifinals - 1/9/25 - Orange Bowl. 10/10/25 - Cotton Bowl. Final - 1/20/25 - Mercedes Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA. Most of the games will be played in Dixie. Again, where and when a team plays will matter. A quarterfinal in the Peach Bowl, a semi-final in the Orange or Cotton Bowl, and the champ game again in the 'Peach Bowl' would be very difficult for a West Coast team, even if the team plays a quarterfinal game in the Rose Bowl. None of these games are being played in enclosed midwest venues, Detroit, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis, something that will need to be addressed come 2026. With its roster and with a QB who has accounted for 125 TDs in his career to date, Oregon IMO is odds on to make the PO field in 2024. Then? Thanks again, Ryan. 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 4 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Correction. Bama struggled but it did defeat USF by more than 1 score, 17-3. With QB Milroe on the bench. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OregonDucks No. 5 Share Posted December 24, 2023 (edited) With the exception of the Georgia game, Lanning’s losses have been in close games to good teams, although Oregon had the more talented roster. There were a couple of questionable coaching decisions in some of those games that were debated ad nauseam by fans and the media, which may have directly resulted in the losses. Therefore, my hope is that Lanning reflects on and gets advice from his mentors in the offseason, as part of his 1%, to improve his in-game coaching. He is an elite recruiter and has the respect of his players. What are some of Oregon’s biggest roster needs/question marks heading into next season? I’d like to see Oregon pick up a #1 receiver in the transfer portal and wouldn’t mind a proven RB (Ollie Gordon II, the all American and Doak Award winner from Oklahoma State would be a dream pickup). I’d also like to bring in at least one experienced, proven defensive tackle. I also question Will Stein’s game planning and call selection at critical moments but that is another issue to discuss another day. Ollie Gordon II Transfer Portal: 5 landing spots for the Oklahoma State RB WWW.SPORTSKEEDA.COM Social media space was rife Monday night with rumors about Oklahoma State running back Ollie Gordon II entering the transfer portal. Edited December 24, 2023 by OregonDucks 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 6 Share Posted December 24, 2023 I personally am not ready to ponder next year until I see what happens in the portal for Oregon. There are lots of rumors, and many more great prospects will enter the portal AFTER the bowl games. It is also possible that the Ducks will LOSE a few players to the portal after the bowl game. From a coaching standpoint...I believe Lanning will get better, and I believe Tosh has a much better idea of what he can do at Oregon now. The amount of blitzes this season went WAY up and were instrumental in many games. On offense--I believe Stein is going to improve, and that small upside may offset the loss of Bucky and Franklin. But let's see what the portal brings! 3 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haywarduck Moderator No. 7 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Fortunately for us the decisions our coaches have made have been for attacking, not lacking the basic rules of football, and common sense. It is nice to know we have moved beyond the timeout to start the game. I completely agree all coaches and really the systems and processes that get set up between all coaches needs time to be incorporated throughout the program. This can't be emphasized enough what Chip inherited, and some head coaches bring takes years to develop. Kirby would be a very good example of an assistant taking over and it took 6 years for him to win it all. I am also very happy Lanning is winning the games he should and staying in all games, except the first big road game, an outlier in my book. I just think the talent he is bringing is going to scream next step, playoffs and big wins. We still have to wait to see if that happens, and how the fanbase reacts to more struggles. I am all in on Lanning struggles, or win it all next season! 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyToBeADuck No. 8 Share Posted December 24, 2023 In order for the Ducks to make the 2024 playoffs a few key, experienced pieces will need to be added to the roster. While i am confident that DL and staff recognize and understand their needs, i am with Charles and will wait until those needs are filled before my optimism grows. The schedule on the road to the 2024 playoff, IMHO, will be more difficult than the 2023 season. Consider this, MIchigan has not lost a BIG conference game since 2021. Last 2 seasons, they are 26-1. They graduate some key players but Damn..... tOSU has only lost to Michigan the last 2 seasons.PSU has only lost to MIchigan and tOSU the last 2 seasons. These 3 teams are not going to step aside and let the Ducks glide into the 2024 CFP. Of course, in the vanishing PAC 12 the putrid huskies are 24-2 and OBD's are 21-5 the last 2 seasons. Riding a 3 game (barf) win streak over the Ducks, the huskies are not about to roll over next year. With the Wolverines, Buckeyes and huskies on our schedule in 2024, DL and staff will need to field a team that can win 2 of those games. 10-3 may not be enough to receive an at large bid to the playoff. While the recruiting class of 2024 is a record class it does not bring in valuable, experienced veterans to march thru the BIG DL and his staff have used the TP very well, so far. Lets hope it continues. 1 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OregonDucks No. 9 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 1:03 PM, Haywarduck said: Fortunately for us the decisions our coaches have made have been for attacking, not lacking the basic rules of football, and common sense. I’m not sure that I agree with you on that last point. I’d rather our coach be less aggressive and play the percentages (i.e., conventional wisdom) than losing games by being too aggressive. This includes taking points in what is expected to be a close game or in which you are favored. Not going for it deep in your own territory (unless you are down late and have no choice) and/or longer than 4th and 1ish (given the significant decrease in conversion percentage for every extra yard to go), unless we are just outside of field goal range. Oregon will have a more talented roster than most teams we play. Don’t give games away with questionable coaching decisions. Fortunately, I believe that Dan Lanning has that growth mindset that he preaches to his players and said that he looks in the mirror, first. I hope that he continues to learn and doesn’t make the same mistakes next year and beyond. If he does, the sky is the limit. 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OregonDucks No. 10 Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/24/2023 at 1:57 PM, HappyToBeADuck said: While i am confident that DL and staff recognize and understand their needs, i am with Charles and will wait until those needs are filled before my optimism grows. Oregon has arguably the top returning QB in all of college football with the transfer of Dillon Gabriel. It is said that quarterback is the most important position in all of sports. Oregon is in a win now mode and should be one of the favorites to win the B1G next season, unless we have a flood of key portal transfers after the Fiesta Bowl (which seems extremely unlikely). We’ll have to wait to see how we match up against Michigan and Ohio State but Oregon beat both teams the last time we played them (on the road). Respect everyone, fear no one! 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckdude No. 11 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Great analysis. As always……lotsa “ifs”. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrw Moderator No. 12 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Anybody have access to the scholarship count? Thought I read somewhere that the Ducks are 6-8 scholarships over the limit. If so, more players are certainly leaving. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDuck No. 13 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Bottom line, win. A loss regular season is still playoffs, at 11-1, 12-1, even 11-2 possibly with a 12 team playoff. But win a championship? Just win. Gotta win out after December 1st. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCDuck1 No. 14 Share Posted December 25, 2023 JRW, Winter Tng and Spring Ball will toughen and teach while winnowing the wheat (OBD). VR, KCDuck1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
