FishDuck Article Administrator No. 1 Share Posted July 10 Dan Lanning and Oregon have been on an absolute tear these last few weeks. It has delightfully resulted in the tears of USC and Texas fans alike, and Lanning isn’t done yet. There is a very good chance that Oregon lands an additional five-star recruit or two this cycle. If Lanning keeps up the pace there is a good chance ... The Reality of NIL in CFB Recruiting Today | FishDuck FISHDUCK.COM Dan Lanning and Oregon have been on an absolute tear these last few weeks. It has delightfully resulted in the tears of USC and... 1 2 2 2 Two Sites: FishDuck and the Our Beloved Ducks forum, The only "Forum with Decorum!" And All-Volunteer? What a wonderful community of Duck fans! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smith72 Moderator No. 2 Share Posted July 10 Thanks for writing today's article for discussion! Your perspective helps me to understand the NIL better. I feel your ending sums up why Oregon and Coach Lanning and his staff are so successful. "NIL opens the door for programs to recruit top athletes, but it is not the thing that wins a recruiting battle. It is still about building relationships and selling the program." 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
MicroBurst61 No. 3 Share Posted July 10 Unfortunately the human animal brain wants to simplify most any situation to its most simple and basic explanation, for this is how our biology and how human brains "self-preservation hardwire" tend to work. (Can't sit there contemplating the ramifications of the Sabertooth Tiger charging you as it's next meal). Your brain, instantly, breaks that down to the most basic fight or flight response, based on the Limited, but apparent, information coming in via the senses. So we tend to embrace the knee-jerk, generalized, explanation for ...reasons...fulfilling that basal instinct to "know" what the limited amount of information we observe actually means or represents. So, that being said it never surprises me when the reaction to a "win or loss" in the NIL world is so over-generlized regarding the reasons why. Yes, "The Bag" may be a new "legal" dynamic in NFL-Lite recruiting, both out of high school and the portal, but player fit, relationships, long-term goals, development, and needs of both player and program are still huge factors on why a player decides his football future. We probably Don't want the player that is simply looking to get paid, over all other conciderations. I do not believe that Oregon Division Street is simply "throwing money" at all five and four stars out there. I DO believe that Division Street has a valid business plan and a cutting edge vision of NIL and are not the "lynch pin" that future "men of Oregon" solely base their decisions on. Division Street is simply the NIL branch of a larger organization and NOT the driver of that organization. I may be wrong, money generating ventures during my lifetime do seem to "digress" and start to compromise the values they were founded on when the "easy money" dries up and it becomes more and more difficult to "compete" at previous levels of success; but I hope and pray that Division Street avoids this trap and, like the OBD's over the past 25 years, leads NFL-lite in how NIL should be part of a "package" and not just a means to an end. Thanks for attending my TED talk. I'll be here all week. Go Ducks! 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LB48 No. 4 Share Posted July 10 Thank you for a great article. It seems to me that a big part of the decision is what staff can best prepare me for the NFL. Lanning and Co are doing that. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar No. 5 Share Posted July 10 My only skepticisms with the article is I'm not sure rates have or will ever stabilize without salary caps. Secondly the statement that when bidding is over the top institutions have bid a similar amount and the recruit will then make a decision purely on other merits. That's not how auctions bidding wars end. The end when one bidder is not willing to pay as much as the other individual. I will say that coaches at other institutions have said Oregon coaches reach out to confirm an offer value the recruit said the other school had made. I'm sure this is mutual, but this only serves to keep the bidding in check without an auction house managing the bidding process, so at the end of the day I would assume that 99 times out of 100 a recruit has many unequal NIL offers to weigh against the historical differentiators. There is a strong chance that on average we are the highest bidder for recruits that pick us. It takes too much illogical hand waving to assume otherwise. That being said, choosing top dollar for yourself and having strong character ARE NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE. It is more than conceivable that humans both buy the cheapest option available, and take the highest job offer presented if all options are "good enough." What's wrong with that? Absolutely nothing. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 6 Share Posted July 10 On 7/10/2024 at 8:25 AM, Solar said: My only skepticisms with the article is I'm not sure rates have or will ever stabilize without salary caps. A tidbit of info I came across on a pay site several days ago was that it is believed that coaches will cont as ct other coaches to see if the NIL proposals are real. This is to the benefit of both schools because they have some knowledge of what that player is worth and to avoid the player or agent trying to squeeze more out of them. The market has certainly calmed over 2022. TAMU and their collective learned that you can't buy a class and buy a championship. Tennessee was rumored to get their starting QB for about a million a year out of high school and though he may be great I don't think anyone would say he has lived up to that paycheck yet. I would say that the market has stabilized only because I believe there are a lot fewer instances of players being purely bought. I am sure there are still cases but development and traditional recruiting are still he most important aspects of landing a player. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar No. 7 Share Posted July 10 On 7/10/2024 at 8:42 AM, David Marsh said: A tidbit of info I came across on a pay site several days ago was that it is believed that coaches will cont as ct other coaches to see if the NIL proposals are real. This is to the benefit of both schools because they have some knowledge of what that player is worth and to avoid the player or agent trying to squeeze more out of them. The market has certainly calmed over 2022. TAMU and their collective learned that you can't buy a class and buy a championship. Tennessee was rumored to get their starting QB for about a million a year out of high school and though he may be great I don't think anyone would say he has lived up to that paycheck yet. I would say that the market has stabilized only because I believe there are a lot fewer instances of players being purely bought. I am sure there are still cases but development and traditional recruiting are still he most important aspects of landing a player. I address the coach to coach communication further in my posted comment. I don't disagree with your "definition" of stabilization as you state it here. There have been self imposed guardrails to keep things in check, just no speed limits yet. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 8 Share Posted July 10 This gives some insight into Oregon's NIL. I feel it supports my article quite well which I wrote before I saw this. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Fischer Administrator No. 9 Share Posted July 10 Great article David, and in the end...."haters are gonna hate" on Oregon. If money was the sole reason for choosing Oregon, and we truly had an unlimited budget--then we would get ALL the 5-Star guys, and our class would be better than tOSU's class. Oregon has always had money, brand, and NIKE associated with us, but the difference is Dan Lanning, and... ...that is making other teams concerned and taking notice. 1 Mr. FishDuck Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 10 Share Posted July 10 Like the NFL, a cap on the direct payment of salaries from a player's employer-university will be instituted whenever 'someone' can figure out the structure of a Players Union and who constitutes Management. This is most likely, without help from Congress, on the way. Like the NFL there will be no limit on a college athlete's ability to market his or her Name, Image, and Likeness. Any attempt to cap NIL would be a restraint on trade. Based on negative court decisions and state legislation, the NCAA has given up-regulating NIL in any way, shape, or form and has also given up putting restraints on transfers. A player's agent knows the going market rate for recruits and transfers. And agents of course will try to pit one NIL collective against another NIL collective or more. However, as David noted it isn't all about the Benji's in every case. As David noted, 'Can you get me to the pros?' is a question that any recruit or transfer looking down the road will ask. As to A+M, having to come up with $72M to get rid of Jimbo may have put a damper on the Aggies' NIL. However, Mike Elko did a very good job of bringing in quality players from the portal. There's a whole lot of oil money in Texas. Thanks, David for another excellent article. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLduck No. 11 Share Posted July 10 Great points Mr Marsh. I read an article where a dozen or so top recruits were interviewed. The overall agreement was that most NIL deals were similar in $ value and the final decision was due to coaches, facilities, etc. just as David wrote. I've also read that Division Street is organized and careful with offers, not wanting to be the highest. They also seem to work for adding duration to offers, making more in the long term not just for one year. Dan Lanning as a person is a magnate for great players. Every recruit says great things about him and the other coaches. The fact Alabama was interested in him speaks volumes. The NIL is obviously a big part, but all the big schools have plenty of $$. At the end of the day it's coaching and development. We all heard that pre-game speech for Colorado, and I know I was ready to suit up and run through a wall for him! How much more young talented players all across the country. Lastly, being in the B1G is more valuable than maybe we first thought. Every game more accessible for family, opportunities to play in famous stadiums against the best competition... It all fits to make Oregon a dream destination. The NIL is just icing. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 12 Share Posted July 10 Telling It like It is. https://athlonsports.com/college-football/baylor-head-coach-dave-aranda-says-recruiting-success-is-due-to-paying-players-at-big-12-media-day Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 13 Share Posted July 10 On 7/10/2024 at 12:04 PM, Jon Joseph said: Like the NFL there will be no limit on a college athlete's ability to market his or her Name, Image, and Likeness. Any attempt to cap NIL would be a restraint on trade. But unlike the NFL the biggest problem with NIL in the college game is that it's based almost entirely off fandom. And let's get real as fans we are not reasonable people. We all want our team to win the national championship and if we had the resources to do so we'd all be involved in these high profile NIL collectives. Whereas the in the NFL (and pros in general) players look for the best bidder during free agency. But in the pros with NIL that is attached to players for promotional reasons. Patrick Mahomes could be with ANY team in the NFL and State Farm would employ his NIL for their ads. There is a market for the best players to pursue NIL and it's separate from the organization they're with. For college the NIL game usually has little work involved outside of play for a given school. NIL is connected to teams in a way that it just isn't for anything else. @Solarmentioned he didn't agree with my definition of stabilized in the NIL market. The truth is that this is as stable as it gets. The market has smoothed out and mostly calmed down and sure there are those who wish to throw money all over the place and disrupt the market but there cannot be any true regulation on this. Even when paying players direct from the university comes into effect that doesn't stop the NIL dollars from flowing. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Marsh No. 14 Share Posted July 10 On 7/10/2024 at 12:20 PM, Jon Joseph said: Telling It like It is. https://athlonsports.com/college-football/baylor-head-coach-dave-aranda-says-recruiting-success-is-due-to-paying-players-at-big-12-media-day Gotta pay to play. And being stuck in the Big 12 certainly doesn't help matters. Even if their collective had the money they can't sell being in the B1G or SEC. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
