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Could the Beavers Be Playoff Bound?

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Not saying that they will be even sniffing the playoffs this year, but did the formation of the six pac give that conference an automatic bid?
 

Does that mean in the future that all the rodents have to do is be better than the Aztecs and the rest of the homeless teams gathering around the embers of what was formally the Pac 12?

 

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IMHO, they have another G-5, now G-6 conference.  But perhaps when the Playoffs go to 16 teams?

 

The top seeds need some cannon fodder in the first round...

 

Beaver Meme2.jpg

 

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Mr. FishDuck

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It just stinks that they could possibly have an easier path for a playoff paycheck after playing a gauntlet of tomato can state universities. 

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“Automatic bid” is a bit of a misnomer I think. As it stands currently, a future PAC winner doesn’t just get in from winning the conference, they still have to be one of the five highest ranked conference champions…that’s the only criteria for an auto-bid, including the P4. It’s assumed the four highest ranked conference champions will come from the P4, leaving 1 for the best of the rest.
 

Technically, in a future year, if for some reason the CUSA and AAC champs were ranked #13 and #14, and for whatever reason one of the P4 champs was ranked below that, the lower ranked P4 champ could be left out entirely.

 

I would also add it’s assumed by many that the rodents will be kingpins of whatever conference they cobble together.
 

Not so fast my friends!

 

The rodents are currently a product of the company they kept in the old PAC, but they still sunk to the bottom of that group of friends historically. The core reasons they sunk remain. Teams like SDSU, BSU, Fresno, and UTSA could easily surpass them within the G6 space.
 

I predict they’ll be facing the same uphill fight in a lesser PAC.

 

 

Edited by JabbaNoBargain
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Yes.... They can but this is probably what needs to happen. 

 

1. Win out .. duh this is a given.

 

2. Win convincingly ... Don't look like Mountain West teams are your equals. They can probably have a couple close wins but can't make a habit of it. 

 

3. Pray the Ducks win the B1G... Yeah this one is going to be the hardest for Beaver fans. But if Oregon wins the B1G then they am an say their only loss is to probably the No. 2 team in the country. 

 

And then they'll have to hope and pray that the committee doesn't have anyone else deemed more worthy or they pity them enough. 

 

Then and only then does OSU get like the 12th spot and the honor of getting demolished by a B1G or SEC team in the first round of the playoff. 

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I don't think either wsu or osu can qualify unless they become highest ranked G5. Most likely that will be a G5 team that wins their conference. 

 

Currently the Pac? is NOT a bona-fide conference. They need a minimum of 8 teams. So until the 2026 season, they can qualify for a bowl but will miss out on playoffs. They were given 2 years to figure things out by NCAA. 

 

Whatever teams result in being in the Pac, they will never be granted an automatic spot in current playoff format. They need to be highest ranked G5(or 6) conference winner.

The powers that be, SEC and B1G, will not give a renamed MWC a place at the playoff trough.

 

Besides winning conference, they will need at minimum, one major  ooc win.

Just another reason to not schedule them every year.

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On 9/22/2024 at 11:05 AM, DanLduck said:

I don't think either wsu or osu can qualify unless they become highest ranked G5. Most likely that will be a G5 team that wins their conference. 

 

Currently the Pac? is NOT a bona-fide conference. They need a minimum of 8 teams. So until the 2026 season, they can qualify for a bowl but will miss out on playoffs. They were given 2 years to figure things out by NCAA. 

 

Whatever teams result in being in the Pac, they will never be granted an automatic spot in current playoff format. They need to be highest ranked G5(or 6) conference winner.

The powers that be, SEC and B1G, will not give a renamed MWC a place at the playoff trough.

 

Besides winning conference, they will need at minimum, one major  ooc win.

Just another reason to not schedule them every year.

The PIG2 are considered independent this year and next, and can only make the playoff as an at large…being highest ranked G5 means nothing for them. If the playoff was today Boise would be in as the highest and only ranked G5, but only if they won the MWC.

 

It does beg the question that I don’t know the answer to. What happens if there isn’t a ranked G5 conference champ?

Edited by JabbaNoBargain
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They can barely fill their stadium.
 

While that is not a prerequisite to a qualifying berth, you still need alumni support to be competitive on the national stage. Perhaps they can qualify if every bounce of the ball goes there way in the new PAC, but as stated earlier, they would just be a lower seed against a top team. 
 

The realignment carousel is still spinning, and money wise the new PAC will be competing for media dollars with the big boy conferences. Outlook for a media contract that pays all the bills is going to be a stretch. 

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 Because the Beavs beat Purdue? Hell No!

 

OSU and WSU are Independents in 2024 + 2025. Same as Notre Dame and UConn. OSU and WSU cannot win a conference championship, G5 or otherwise. With a blowout home loss to OBD, the Beavs have no chance of beating out an at-large Power 4 team(s.)

 

Wazzu plays at Boise on Saturday. Boise is better than San Jose State which took the Cougs into OT on Saturday. Boise 'rested' RB Jeanty against Portland State. Jeanty only had 11 carries and will be ready to go vs. the Cougs.  

 

Cheer for the Broncos. Boise being the G5 rep and going 12-1 will give the Ducks schedule strength a nice bump. 

 

Week 5 AP Poll has OBD with 1 top-25 win over No. 25 Boise.  The Week 5 AP Poll has No. 3 Ohio State, No. 12 Michigan, and No. 19 Illinois left for Oregon to play.  6 B1G teams are ranked. 9 SEC teams remained ranked. Nebraska lost to a top-25 team at home and dropped out. Oklahoma lost to a top-25 team at home and fell from No. 15 to No. 21. A+M beat Bowling Green at home by 6 points and moved up a spot. 

 

You can bet that Illinois could lose in 3 OTs at Penn State on Saturday and drop out of the poll.

 

 

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On 9/22/2024 at 11:33 AM, JabbaNoBargain said:

The PIG2 are considered independent this year and next, and can only make the playoff as an at large…being highest ranked G5 means nothing for them. If the playoff was today Boise would be in as the highest and only ranked G5, but only if they won the MWC.

 

It does beg the question that I don’t know the answer to. What happens if there isn’t a ranked G5 conference champ?

They will have to determine who the highest ranked is because the format says automatic bid for the 5 highest ranked conference champions. 

 

As there are only 4 P4 conferences and 5 other conferences they'll have to determine who the best is for that spot. Which would mean doing a ranking outside the top 25. 

 

I have a feeling the committee would determine this behind closed doors and just slip in a 5th conference champion into the top 25 to make it easy on themselves. 

 

Doesn't mean it's fair or right ... Just the way it'll be. 

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G5 in the AP poll today

25- Boise St – Mt. West

29- UNLV – Mt. West

33- James Madison - Sunbelt

35- Liberty – Conference USA

Unranked American Athletic – Army, Navy, Memphis, Tulane

Unranked MAC - Buffalo

 

IF, WSU is undefeated it could get an at-large but it would have to be in the top 12, and five conference champs get a slot (as long as they are top 12).   Which means WSU would have to be among 7 at-large.  It is No. 26 in the AP today.

 

As of today, Michigan is No. 12 and would likely be replaced by No. 25 Boise St.  The other 11 are all Power 4 as of this morning.

 

WSU would likely have to be between 5 and 11.    What if the Big12 was No. 13?   They would be given the No. 4 slot, and all the at-large would shift down.  No. 11 would replace No. 12.  So, AP ranked No. 11 and No. 12 would both be out and replaced by the Big12 Champ and the Group of 5 Champ.

 

In many years, the at-large will be the new hotly debated issue.  Not only participation, but ranked 5-8 for first-round home advantage.   As of today's current AP ranking those 5-8 would all be SEC home games. (2) Georgia becomes (5).  (4) Alabama becomes (6).  Then Tennessee and Ole Miss.  Georgia and Alabama have to slide down to make room for the ACC and Big12 Champs in the top four.

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Before Jon beats me to it.... the SEC has 3 teams in the top 4.  So, two would automatically be 5 and 6 with home games.   As long as the SEC plays 8 conference games, this is likely to continue.   It does get frustrating that the other 3 conference commissioners always seem to be distracted looking at a shiny object while the SEC commissioner pulls the wool over their eyes in terms of how the rules of the CFP will play out.

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On 9/22/2024 at 3:34 PM, HDuck said:

It does get frustrating that the other 3 conference commissioners always seem to be distracted looking at a shiny object while the SEC commissioner pulls the wool over their eyes in terms of how the rules of the CFP will play out.

Exactly, the SEC is proactive, goes after what it wants and 90% of the time gets it

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We also have a lot of teams that still have to play each other and injuries always throw a wrench projections.

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