NJDuck Moderator No. 1 Share Posted October 14 Can someone make that make sense to me? The Oregon Ducks went into the biggest game of their season, and quite possibly the biggest game of the year, and won. They beat the then-ranked No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes at home, 32-31, and took a decided lead in the race for the Big Ten Conference Championship Game, while also getting onto the inside track for the College Football Playoff. They beat the then-ranked No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes at home, 32-31, and took a decided lead in the race for the Big Ten Conference Championship Game, while also getting onto the inside track for the College Football Playoff. Despite all of that, their standing in the ESPN Football Power Index did not change. They still sit at No. 8 in the nation, per ESPN’s FPI, behind Ohio State (No. 2), a 5-2 Ole Miss team (No. 4), and both Notre Dame (No. 6) and Tennessee (No. 7). I’ve spent a lot of my career using ESPN’s FPI as a data point in analysis, and I value the win probability metrics that it pumps out each week. But if it continues to disagree so completely with what I see with my naked eye, that might have to change. Oregon Ducks win probability for every game in 2024, after Week 7 DUCKSWIRE.USATODAY.COM A look at the Oregon Ducks’ remaining win probability in every game of the 2024 season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDuck Author Moderator No. 2 Share Posted October 14 Biased Much! The AP Top 25 screwed over the Oregon Ducks by leaving Texas at No. 1 The Oregon Ducks have risen to No. 2 in the AP Top 25 but they deserve the top spot which still belongs to the Texas Longhorns. The Oregon Ducks toppled the No. 2 team in the country on Saturday when they defeated the Ohio State Buckeyes. Oregon was already the No. 3 team in the country but took over the second spot in the rankings after the big-time win. However, the Ducks deserve the top spot in the country instead of the currently No. 1, the Texas Longhorns. Before we get into the why, sure, Texas is a great team, there is no denying that, but the Horns' season so far doesn't compare to the Ducks'. With that being said, here are just a few reasons why Oregon should be the No. 1 team in the nation: The AP Top 25 screwed over the Oregon Ducks by leaving Texas at No. 1 AUTZENZOO.COM The Oregon Ducks have risen to No. 2 in the AP Top 25 but they deserve the top spot which still belongs to the Texas Longhorns. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OregonDucks No. 3 Share Posted October 14 On 10/14/2024 at 8:49 AM, NJDuck said: Can someone make that make sense to me? Yes, I can. Their model is clearly broken. There is no way that 7 college football teams are better than Oregon, including one they just beat in a head to head matchup! Does anyone else have 2 victories against current top 20 teams this season? 1 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Joseph Moderator No. 4 Share Posted October 14 Faulty Prediction Instrument. Blame Al(gorithm.) Have you ever seen ESPN post an FPI Monday Morning: WE SCREWED THESE PICKS UP BUT NO REFUNDS! Where is Full of Klatt's revised Top 10? Joel, do you think Oregon held up at the LOS, or what? Blow Up The Boilers! 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tandaian No. 5 Share Posted October 14 FPI is all about calculating a whole bunch of stats to come up with a number. Barely beating Idaho isn't going to do the Ducks any favors. As well all know, you can almost make stats say whatever you want. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haywarduck Moderator No. 6 Share Posted October 14 Love it, the long shot is a position I enjoy our Ducks being in. We started the season way too high. Let the doubters fuel the fire these young need fed to reach this teams potential. We have way more potential than we saw executed against the nuts. At the end we should be right were we deserve. This is all that matters. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OregonDucks No. 7 Share Posted October 14 (edited) On 10/14/2024 at 10:06 AM, Tandaian said: FPI is all about calculating a whole bunch of stats to come up with a number. Barely beating Idaho isn't going to do the Ducks any favors. As well all know, you can almost make stats say whatever you want. But in any model overall record should be more important than margin of victory, right? They have a two loss team (Ole Miss) ahead of an undefeated team with two victories over current top 15-20 teams (including the #2 overall team)? Edited October 14 by OregonDucks Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrw Moderator No. 8 Share Posted October 14 Meaningless, irrelevant mumbo-jumbo...just play the games and win them. Take the FPI and ESPN and fold 'em twelve times and put 'em where the moon don't shine. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
30Duck No. 9 Share Posted October 14 On 10/14/2024 at 8:16 AM, Haywarduck said: We started the season way too high. I'll disagree here, it looks like OBD started a bit low. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark29 No. 10 Share Posted October 14 Fox = Big 10 SEC = ESPN eventually, it will be the Fox vs ESPN teams due to TV money. ESPN is biased toward their conference and visa versa. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JabbaNoBargain No. 11 Share Posted October 14 (edited) On 10/14/2024 at 8:40 AM, jrw said: Meaningless, irrelevant mumbo-jumbo...just play the games and win them. Take the FPI and ESPN and fold 'em twelve times and put 'em where the moon don't shine. This. Random snapshot 6 games in imo. If it gives the actual players fuel it is fantastic. Edited October 14 by JabbaNoBargain Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioDuck No. 12 Share Posted October 14 Yeah, Ducks at #8 now means you need to fix your algorithm. I can see ducks not jumping TX for #1. Horn's took care of business vs a pretty good OK team. If that game had been 32-31, Oregon has a really good case for being ranked #1. 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OregonDucks No. 13 Share Posted October 14 On 10/14/2024 at 12:24 PM, OhioDuck said: Yeah, Ducks at #8 now means you need to fix your algorithm. I can see ducks not jumping TX for #1. Horn's took care of business vs a pretty good OK team. If that game had been 32-31, Oregon has a really good case for being ranked #1. You'd think that someone with half a brain would have seen those results and paused the release of the FPI rankings this week... 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
