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CalBear95

How Many Losses Can the Ducks Afford?

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Right now the B1G standings are a little crazy and there isn’t really a great mechanism for sorting it out because a number of the top teams don’t face each other.  
 

PSU is undefeated with really only one tough game ahead of them (OSU) and that’s at home. 

 

Indiana is undefeated with two tough games ahead of them (Michigan @ home, OSU on the road). 
 

OSU has three (PSU, Indiana, Michigan)

 

The Ducks have two left (Illinois and Michigan @ Michigan).  
 

If OSU wins out and both PSU and Indiana only lose to OSU that’s 3 1-loss teams.  If you add the Ducks to that list…how do the tie breakers work?

 

Probably best to win out and not even face this question. 

 

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Right now, it would help if Nebraska beat Indiana. Not looking like that's going to happen. Indiana @ Ohio State on Nov.23 will probably get "Gameday".

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We can give up one, but then it puts a ton of pressure on the B1G Championship game.  There will be too many two-win teams vying to get into the Playoff, and I would not want to be in a beauty contest for that.

 

Mr. FishDuck

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1 to make the B1G Championship Game

 

2 to make the College Football Playoffs

 

Any more than that would require a crazy end of the season (which has happened before but you don’t want to rely on).

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On 10/19/2024 at 12:12 PM, CalBear95 said:

The Ducks have two left (Illinois and Michigan @ Michigan).  

Every team is going to be tough for OBD because the bullseye was pulled from OSU and placed on them! No GAME is easy.

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So far, this Big Ten season, the focus of difficulty has been on Away games.   For Oregon, at Michigan and at Wisconsin remain.

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I'm gonna go with 'just win them all.'

 

That's my plan and I'm sticking with it. 

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Before the season started, none of us looked at the schedule and said, "whew, at least we don't play Indiana". Whew now.  After they get done whacking Nebraska, Washington shows up next week, then at Michigan State, Michigan at home, Bye, then Indiana @ Ohio State, in a game that could blow OSU completely to bits, then it's home against Purdue. 

 

Unless Indiana stubs every toe on every player's foot, it looks like the worse they'll be going into the B!G Champioship Game is 11-1. 

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The Athletic just did an article on this...

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College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Oregon’s Win Over Ohio State Comes With a Bonus

 

In the BCS era, one loss meant a season with national title aspirations was mostly over. In the four-team College Football Playoff era, no two-loss team ever made the field. But now, with the Playoff field at 12, two losses still won’t outweigh what the most accomplished teams of the first half of the season have done.

 

What often goes overlooked is the reward for winning a game like Oregon did over Ohio State in a top-three showdown on Saturday, or Texas did against Oklahoma this weekend and at Michigan early this season.

 

The Ducks and Horns are at the season’s midpoint with big-time wins and no losses. And what winning quality games offers is the luxury of knowing one bad night can’t dramatically change the trajectory of a season in which a team has already accomplished a lot.

 

To miss the Playoff now for teams like Oregon and Texas — and include Penn State after its comeback win Saturday at USC — it’ll take a total collapse.

 

EUGENE, OREGON - OCTOBER 12: Roger Saleapaga #83 of the Oregon Ducks celebrates with Jeffrey Bassa #2 after recovering a turnover on a kickoff during the second quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Autzen Stadium on October 12, 2024 in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Ali Gradischer/Getty Images)

 

Mr. FishDuck

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On 10/19/2024 at 11:41 AM, Charles Fischer said:

and include Penn State after its comeback win Saturday at USC — it’ll take a total collapse.

I don't include a comeback win over 3-3 USC as a "Quality win"

Edited by 30Duck
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Indiana?   The University campus is 51 miles from the site of the Big Ten Championship game.   Can you imagine what the environment for an opponent would be?

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1 loss gets us in...2? just depends who are loses are with with. There are a few undefeated teams still left and I think Miami runs the table. Thats a really good offensive team. 

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Indiana is leading Nebraska 56-7 and will be 7-0.   Will play at Ohio State in November.

 

Miami is up 52-38 late.  Will be 7-0.   Only possible loss will be in ACC Championship game.

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On 10/19/2024 at 1:41 PM, Charles Fischer said:

The Athletic just did an article on this...

---------------------------------------------------------

 

What often goes overlooked is the reward for winning a game like Oregon did over Ohio State in a top-three showdown on Saturday, or Texas did against Oklahoma this weekend and at Michigan early this season.

 


The Oklahoma win doesn’t look as impressive for Texas or Tennessee. That’s a bad football team with a terrible offense. 

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On 10/19/2024 at 2:19 PM, Duckhart2 said:

1 loss gets us in...2? just depends who are loses are with with. There are a few undefeated teams still left and I think Miami runs the table. Thats a really good offensive team. 


Yes, but their defense is bad and Cam Ward is always good for a turnover or two. They are going to get blown out in the College Football Playoffs by a team with a good offense that can also play defense (I hope it’s by the Ducks!!!).

Edited by OregonDucks
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2024 Indiana is the definite exception to the rule that rankings don't matter early in the season. OBD was ranked No.3 at the start of the season. Looked a little shaky, though not so much now as well as BSU is doing, and fell to No.9. But, OBD is on a roll and sits at No.2, and should be No.1, if Georgia beats Texas.

 

Indiana on the other hand started the season unranked and sit at No.16 now. They just destroyed Nebraska, 56-7 should be at least in the top 10 in the next poll, and have a clear shot at being 10-0 when they go to the 'Shoe on Nov.23.

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At the time Indiana's schedule didn't prompt a response. Now along with a less than strenuous non-conference run, their conference schedule is Charmin quality soft. 

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Every 1-loss SEC or BIG team is going to make it this year.  If you have 2 losses, one of those better be in the Conference Championship game. If it is not, then you are likely in a beauty contest for one of the last spots with a bunch of other teams. Not a place you want to be. 

Edited by GeotechDuck
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Since we beat OSU and don't play Penn State or Indiana, while OSU plays them both, we have 1 mulligan to reach the B1G championship, which basically guarantees a trip to the playoffs, even if we lose..

 

We absolutely control our destiny, so nobody has it better than us right now.

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