Oregon's Rush Defense? "Really Bad!" Or Go Head and Run, We'll Beat You Anyway.

[30Duck]

Oregon will enter this game ranked 110th nationally in EPA-per-rush allowed, according to Game on Paper. That’s really bad! Oregon has allowed 6 different running backs to rush for more than 85 yards this season, and 5 of those managed more than 7.5 yards a clip — including Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson.

 

Oregon won those games, along with all the others. I'm sure that Lanning and Lupoi aren't happy about being 110th. But all season long the Ducks have won, and having Burch in the Rose Bowl will definitely help against osu2.

[OregonDucks]

Oregon’s run defense is not good, which is puzzling.  
 

A coach broke down the Penn State game and Oregon’s “run fits” were terrible. We have two terrific defensive tackles but our linebackers and safeties were out of position or took terrible angles to the ball carrier. 
 

I just don’t think that we have the linebacker talent that those great Georgia or Alabama defenses had. Even past Oregon teams had better linebacking units.

[AnotherOD]

As I understand it, the "mint type" defense attempts to (regularly) stop the run with one less defender in the box (I guess it has to do with where the defenders line up and their specific skill set); and, as a result, has one extra defender to defend the pass; or, other iterations of the spread.

 

Is that mistaken? When looking at Georgia, it has at least seemed like teams who stay in the game and are patient taking 2-3 ypc and at times 3-4 ypc have had success hanging around.

 

The site ATQ had an analysis that suggested:

 

3.60 ypc with a healthy Burch

 

4.05 ypc with Burch a snap count

 

4.40 ypc with Burch out

 

That is almost one yard per carry less with a healthy Burch. Ohio State made some waves coming out throwing but what will Day and Chip do with a favorable box?

 

Will they trust their rebuilt OL or attack an extra defender? Someone correct that if in error!

 

 

Edited December 30, 2024 by AnotherOD

[HappyToBeADuck]

And yet, with all OBD"s faults and weaknesses they navigated the BIG to 13-0 and a BIG title? I guess the Ducks got lucky.

 

The lack of run stop is puzzling and senior linebackers being out of place is inexcusable.  As mentioned before in many threads, by many posters, if the Duck D plays osu2 like they played PSU then DG and company must score on every possession.

 

Personally the Duck D wins as a team. Many long runs came on 3rd and long, with the linebackers in coverage. Of course big gains can be had in those situations. Most teams were playing catchup with the Duck D in prevent. Except Jenty because he is a rare talent.

 

Pressure the osu2 QB and the DB's will be getting INT's.

 

GO DUCKS.......

[OregonDucks]

On 12/30/2024 at 6:41 PM, AnotherOD said:

The site ATQ had an analysis that suggested:

 

3.60 ypc with a healthy Burch

 

4.05 ypc with Burch a snap count

 

4.40 ypc with Burch out

 

That is almost one yard per carry less with a healthy Burch.

 

Burch played against Boise State and Penn State:

 

  Boise State: 6.7 YPC (Jeanty: 7.7 YPC)

  Penn State: 8.7 YPC (Allen: 8.9 YPC and Singleton: 10.5 YPC)

 

 

 

Oregon 37-34 Boise State (Sep 7, 2024) Box Score - ESPN

WWW.ESPN.COM

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Box score for the Oregon Ducks vs. Boise State Broncos NCAAF game from September 7, 2024 on ESPN. Includes all passing, rushing and receiving stats.

 

 

Oregon 45-37 Penn State (Dec 7, 2024) Box Score - ESPN

WWW.ESPN.COM

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Box score for the Oregon Ducks vs. Penn State Nittany Lions NCAAF game from December 7, 2024 on ESPN. Includes all passing, rushing and receiving stats.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2024 by OregonDucks

[AnotherOD]

Oregon vs Ohio State YPP Analysis

WWW.ADDICTEDTOQUACK.COM

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How do the Ducks and Buckeyes stack up on a per play basis

 

 

I happy if someone doesn't like the stat. Maybe better to go to ATQ and voice it there?

 

If they are wrong, ok, but they do have an established record (and the Penn State game would be in the "snap count" for Burch).

 

"Jordan Burch factor -- Oregon was without its best pass rusher in the first game against Ohio State. The Buckeyes’ banged up Offensive Line now must try and stop the exact same cast of characters from Oregon’s front, plus Jordan Burch. To examine how Oregon’s defensive play is affected by Burch’s presence, I broke his games into three categories: when he was absent, when he was in the game but on a snap count, and when he played with no limitations."

Edited December 31, 2024 by AnotherOD

[Dave23]

On 12/30/2024 at 3:57 PM, 30Duck said:

110th nationally in EPA-per-rush

This seems like a really funny metric.

 

Best ball stats quote

"In order to calculate EPA for a play, one has to know the expected points before the play and the expected points after the play. Expected points is based on down and yards to go until a first down, and distance to endzone. The values for expected points has been found by taking historical data and computing the average number of points scored by the possessing team in each situation."

 

33rd nationally in run defence allowing 126 yard a game, 26th in TDs.

 

Advanced metrics and analytics really need to be read and used carefully as a lot of it is  situation and some things are really hard to describe with an algorithm.

[jrw]

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics".

[Rabid Duck]

Our defense felt pretty bend, don't-break and statistically played very well in most games. Penn State and Boise State are both very good teams, with powerful offenses. Statistics are cool and interesting, but they do not often tell the complete story (except PF & PA -- Points For/Points Against).

 

Can not wait for this excruciating wait to be over. GO DUCKS!!!

[OregonDucks]

Oregon has played 3 playoff teams and gave up 30+ points in each of those games (special teams won the Boise State game, we were fortunate that Ohio State's QB lost track of time at the end of the game because they were moving the ball on our defense and Oregon's secondary made a nice play, on a bad QB decision, to seal the Penn State game but we were fortunate that Oregon's offense was rolling). We are going to need DG and our offense clicking to win a national championship. I was hoping that Oregon could rely its defense by now to win big games, against quality opponents. 

 

(We played in a mediocre offensive conference this year so the national defensive statistics do not tell the whole story. It's also why Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State's defensive statistics are perpetually misleading.)

Edited December 31, 2024 by OregonDucks

[Vandownbytheriverduck]

The Two missing offensive line starters from the poisonous inedible nuts graded out, on their worst games, better than their replacements graded out on their best games. 

Edited December 31, 2024 by Vandownbytheriverduck

[mikethehiker]

While our D-line is stout, the back half of our defense are home-grown linebackers combined with a renegade secondary that punch above their weight class as a whole.

 

Will Ohio St. have the patience to stay with their run game?  Wisconsin had no choice.

 

For our defense, we don't need to stop every run play.  However, we get one TFL or no gain, and now our defense plays ahead of the sticks and gets off the field.  It just takes one stop on one drive.  So yards per carry can be a little deceiving.

[David Marsh]

On 12/31/2024 at 9:27 AM, mikethehiker said:

Will Ohio St. have the patience to stay with their run game?

They abandoned the run last time and only had 19 rushing yards in the second half. 

 

Most of Ohio States rush yards in the last match were off only a few plays. 

 

Oregon I'd say is vulnerable to the explosive run. A lot of runs go for short gains.