Better for OBD - No. 1 Recruit or Three Experienced Players?

[Jon Joseph]

 

In today's college football, when do you drop out of the bidding for untested recruits when similar NIL money can be used to pick up experienced players from the portal? 

 

Roster management in CFB today is a witch compared to the NFL. A GM in the NFL knows what players will be available in free agency the following season and all of the details on these players' respective compensation. 

 

NFL GMs also know with certainty what a player drafted out of college will earn. There is a Rookie Salary Cap tied to where a player is drafted. Veteran players in the NFL Union had no problem with capping rookie salaries and freeing up additional money for the vets. 

 

Other than what a player's agent is willing to disclose to a given team, roster builders in CFB are flying blind in a turbulent world where there is little or no control over transfers, and what transfer players and recruits can be paid.

 

This season's No. 1-ranked recruit, OT Jackson Cantwell, signed with Miami at a rumored $2 million plus dollars in NIL deals. The Oregon Ducks landed, and the Georgia Dawgs stopped barking, short of $2 million. 

 

If the House settlement is approved, every NIL deal $600 and over will be disclosed. Until then, I'm a Ducks fan who is flying blind when I estimate the amount of the NIL deal money needed to bring three O-linemen in from the portal.

 

How much is Oregon paying, via NIL, to the portal's No. 1-ranked OT  Isiah World, and tied No. 11-ranked OT Alex Harkey? Same question regarding No. 5-ranked IOL, Emmanuel Pregnon? 

 

I have no inside knowledge, but I believe these three needed players signed on with OBD for a total less than or not a great deal more than $2 million?

 

Yes, all three will be gone after one season with the Ducks. But all three are experienced players capable of starting in 2025. No matter how highly rated, very few O-linemen are prepared to start their true freshman season. 1st round draft pick Josh Conerly did not start for the Ducks his true freshman year.

 

Maybe Cantwell is 'All That?' He will start and play well against Notre Dame and Florida, and against lesser competition in the ACC.

 

But for my, er, Uncle Phil and friends' money, and if my estimate is in the ball park, I'll take three experienced players for the price of one rookie, especially with only one O-line starter back for OBD.

 

Agree?

[Charles Fischer]

Agreed.  There is no substitute for experience, as a freshman will effectively be overpaid for two years before his actual value is realized on the field.  (Especially at quarterback!)

 

 

[30Duck]

I agree, Jon. 3 >1. Cantwell could be All World, but the Ducks already have "World" at OT, along with Harkey and proven stud, Pregnon. I say go volume with NIL, how many Heisman's is Michigan's 10M QB going to win?

[David Marsh]

We are flying blind when it comes to NIL deals. 

 

Though from everything I've seen this is basically the pecking order for portal NIL.

 

1. Tippy top tier quarterbacks. Rare but there. 

 

2. Offensive lineman. 

 

3. Defensive lineman. 

 

Exclude the rare quarterbacks and linemen are at a premium in the portal. Getting good high end linemen is been more expensive. 

 

Lanning and co have done an incredible job getting the little top end linemen talent there is in the portal. 

 

In the prep recruiting world... There is a lot more talent available in linemen that just needs time to develop. 

 

And as stated... Even that 5 star talent requires some development.