Better for OBD - No. 1 Recruit or Three Experienced Players?

[Jon Joseph]

 

In today's college football, when do you drop out of the bidding for untested recruits when similar NIL money can be used to pick up experienced players from the portal? 

 

Roster management in CFB today is a witch compared to the NFL. A GM in the NFL knows what players will be available in free agency the following season and all of the details on these players' respective compensation. 

 

NFL GMs also know with certainty what a player drafted out of college will earn. There is a Rookie Salary Cap tied to where a player is drafted. Veteran players in the NFL Union had no problem with capping rookie salaries and freeing up additional money for the vets. 

 

Other than what a player's agent is willing to disclose to a given team, roster builders in CFB are flying blind in a turbulent world where there is little or no control over transfers, and what transfer players and recruits can be paid.

 

This season's No. 1-ranked recruit, OT Jackson Cantwell, signed with Miami at a rumored $2 million plus dollars in NIL deals. The Oregon Ducks landed, and the Georgia Dawgs stopped barking, short of $2 million. 

 

If the House settlement is approved, every NIL deal $600 and over will be disclosed. Until then, I'm a Ducks fan who is flying blind when I estimate the amount of the NIL deal money needed to bring three O-linemen in from the portal.

 

How much is Oregon paying, via NIL, to the portal's No. 1-ranked OT  Isiah World, and tied No. 11-ranked OT Alex Harkey? Same question regarding No. 5-ranked IOL, Emmanuel Pregnon? 

 

I have no inside knowledge, but I believe these three needed players signed on with OBD for a total less than or not a great deal more than $2 million?

 

Yes, all three will be gone after one season with the Ducks. But all three are experienced players capable of starting in 2025. No matter how highly rated, very few O-linemen are prepared to start their true freshman season. 1st round draft pick Josh Conerly did not start for the Ducks his true freshman year.

 

Maybe Cantwell is 'All That?' He will start and play well against Notre Dame and Florida, and against lesser competition in the ACC.

 

But for my, er, Uncle Phil and friends' money, and if my estimate is in the ball park, I'll take three experienced players for the price of one rookie, especially with only one O-line starter back for OBD.

 

Agree?

[Charles Fischer]

Agreed.  There is no substitute for experience, as a freshman will effectively be overpaid for two years before his actual value is realized on the field.  (Especially at quarterback!)

 

 

[30Duck]

I agree, Jon. 3 >1. Cantwell could be All World, but the Ducks already have "World" at OT, along with Harkey and proven stud, Pregnon. I say go volume with NIL, how many Heisman's is Michigan's 10M QB going to win?

[David Marsh]

We are flying blind when it comes to NIL deals. 

 

Though from everything I've seen this is basically the pecking order for portal NIL.

 

1. Tippy top tier quarterbacks. Rare but there. 

 

2. Offensive lineman. 

 

3. Defensive lineman. 

 

Exclude the rare quarterbacks and linemen are at a premium in the portal. Getting good high end linemen is been more expensive. 

 

Lanning and co have done an incredible job getting the little top end linemen talent there is in the portal. 

 

In the prep recruiting world... There is a lot more talent available in linemen that just needs time to develop. 

 

And as stated... Even that 5 star talent requires some development. 

[Just Ducky]

I have no problem with the portal, Dan and his staff have used it very successfully and I expect them to use it again as needed.

 

I would however like to see less one and done guys in the future. It would be much easier on my brain matter, what’s left of it, and more time for our coaches to work with these kids. Opportunities for players like Bo Nix are going to be less and less now that COVID players have been flushed thru.

 

I agree that a team with more quality and deep talent is the best way to build a roster and this years defense, IMO, will prove that theory. From what I saw in that spring game that defensive group was very impressive and deep. Can’t wait to see all those studs working together on the starting lineup with quality backups available.

 

On another note taking my 6 year old to that spring game turned him into a Duck, he can’t stop talking about it. His oldest sister is a sophomore in Corvallis, poor girl. His other sister has been accepted and will enroll at Eugene this summer. Proud grandpa.

 

Go s

 

[Steven A]

Is this 2 Mil frosh a free agent next year?

[GeotechDuck]

On 5/17/2025 at 3:45 PM, Steven A said:

Is this 2 Mil frosh a free agent next year?

This.  It’s almost better at QB and OL to pick up proven talent in the portal.  Let someone else pay them $2M to get them trained up the first and maybe second year. 

Edited 12 hours ago by GeotechDuck

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/17/2025 at 6:45 PM, Steven A said:

Is this 2 Mil frosh a free agent next year?

 

EXACTLY! Dante Moore will not be the last Duck taken on the rebound. 

 

The House settlement intends to control NIL deals, but are courts going to change course and allow for any restraint on a player's ability to maximize his or her income?  I doubt it.

 

The Tennessee legislature is the first but not the last to pass legislation making the House settlement terms, except for the Vols and Vandy paying their share of damages, moot. Do Not Try and Tell Us Volunteers that any NIL Deal is Out of Line!

[Mike West]

On 5/17/2025 at 5:12 PM, Jon Joseph said:

 

EXACTLY! Dante Moore will not be the last Duck taken on the rebound. 

 

The House settlement intends to control NIL deals, but are courts going to change course and allow for any restraint on a player's ability to maximize his or her income?  I doubt it.

 

The Tennessee legislature is the first but not the last to pass legislation making the House settlement terms, except for the Vols and Vandy paying their share of damages, moot. Do Not Try and Tell Us Volunteers that any NIL Deal is Out of Line!

The good thing about the House Settlement is those NIL deals will sort out value per position, and like the NFL the schools will be rated in their scouting and development prowess.

 

Seeing the details of each NIL agreement will be good disclosure for players as well.  The greedy ones will go to schools like Miami, who doesn't develop players, and the savvy players (or better yet, their representation) will start evaluating schools for the entire package.

 

Hence, USC, Miami, Florida and Auburn will need to show they can actually develop these players beyond their raw talent.  It is also why developing Dante Moore AND Novosad is critical this year.  For once, QB recruits will see what Oregon really has to offer when experience is limited.

 

I also happen to believe this is a critical year for developing the secondary.  Two years of  burnt toast is not a very good look (some of that was talent, especially at the nickel position - and I hope Theisen holds down the position as he is a talented player).  

 

DL and his staff still recruit well, but USC and UW are going to start imposing their brands, which will loom large until OBD earn a title.  

 

[SoGaDawg]

Jon I think you’ve made a great point in your OP and I very much agree.  While building a roster in this new era it’s even more obvious that a program’s success or failure is directly reflected by the financial strategy that is implemented and the ROI of said strategy.  Furthermore, I believe that the O-line position group might best exemplify your point.

 

IMO, the O-line is the most important catalyst for an offense.  I have this opinion for many reasons, but for the moment I’ll attempt to touch on the reasons that most directly relate to the topic of this thread.  O-line is most important bc fielding an elite O-line is the most sure way to attain a truly sustainable dominant offense throughout a season.  The line is first and foremost one body made up of strong and talented parts that work so well together in a collaborative strategy that they perform as an elite unit in achieving goals.  This elite unit can act as the heart and guide of the offense by creating the pathways that lead to greatness.

 

So if one of the goals is to build an O-line that is capable of performing in such a way, what is the best strategy in the use of your NIL capital to achieve this goal?  I believe that your estimate is likely somewhere in the ballpark and bc of that and a few other reasons, I think (especially in this case) that your type of strategy could prove the most efficient and beneficial strategy.

 

As you stated, it’s highly unlikely that a freshman offensive lineman will be prepared to start in his true freshman season, no matter how talented or highly rated he is.  To my knowledge there is no amount of NIL money that will magically provide him with the year or years of developmental experience that he will likely need to be the player the unit needs as it pursues greatness.  Also, it’s possible that by the time he does become the right player, he may decide to hit the portal in an attempt to further maximize his earning potential.  So it’s possible that you might pay him top $ just so you could develop him for someone else’s O-line.  If so, this highly touted, highly talented, and extremely expensive recruit has given you a negative ROI, when you consider how that NIL capital might have been used.

 

To your point, instead of taking this risk, search for linemen in the portal that have unexpectedly already developed into just what you’re looking for.  Attempt to use your capital on 2 or 3 that look as if they might immediately fit right into your schemes and strategies.  Players that you feel are already a few of those strong and talented parts that can become a part of that Elite Unit.  Potentially maximize ROI as opposed to risking a negative return.

 

This is just an attempt for me to think about this situation in a way that relates to your OP.  I’m certainly not saying don’t go after those top recruits, but it might be worth thinking about it or considering what alternatives might be available or just talk about it.  I certainly don’t know what is best but I do think it’s interesting.  Some might say it would be very hard to expect an O-line to be able to work that effectively together that quickly, and perhaps that might be the case, but who knows?  The right group might do very well together.  I’m not exaggerating how strongly I feel about the importance of the O-line for an offense.  I have similar feelings for the importance of the D-line for defenses.