Could Oregon Be Seeing TWO Steps Ahead in Recruiting?

[Charles Fischer]

I wrote a post the other day about what the principals at one of the pay sites have been hearing as the Ducks' new recruiting strategy--and their use of NIL. They are NOT going to get into bidding wars for unproven freshmen, and will spend the majority of their NIL dollars trying to retain the current team, (since the majority are still young) and to use a major portion of the rest on Portal Transfers to fill holes.

 

This made sense, and a couple of us suggested that maybe it is a short-term strategy based upon the relative youth of the team, with more going to HS recruiting later as the classes balance out. This is a strategy that is a step ahead of other schools, as they get into massive bidding wars, and this explains all the lost high-profile recruits, and the decommits from Oregon.

 

But what if...the Oregon staff is thinking out even further ahead? That when the NIL caps are actually set...that so many of these schools will have to go back and change those 2 million contracts to $80,000 per year? How will THAT go over with players and parents? But the schools will have no choice!

 

So now, a player is soured on that school that is changing the deal on his former big contract, and now, for the same new money being offered....the Ducks are looking good between the same NIL offer, access to Nike, the uniforms, the staff, etc. Oregon could then pick up a TON of portal transfers.

 

And they will HAVE the money set aside for those elite portal transfers!

 

Are the Ducks thinking two steps ahead, or am I so bored with Baseball ending so soon that I am hallucinating tactics that don't exist?

 

 

[GeotechDuck]

We are in a scary period.  I hope you are right.  If so, we will probably be okay. 
 

Very concerned that Oregon has not had a 2026 commit stick since February. 

Edited yesterday at 01:29 AM by GeotechDuck

[The Kamikaze Kid]

Ever since he arrived, Lanning has appeared to be two steps ahead of being two steps ahead. I have always laughed at the suggestion that he just drops bags of cash on recruits because he seems more about getting the best guys that fit his system rather than the biggest stars out there. Just look at how he absolutely stacked the last two classes as he relied on the portal for high impact players. Now that his team is two to three or four deep at nearly every position, he's set for the next couple years and can just focus on retaining his roster and let the competition spend themselves silly on unproven high school kids.

 

At the end of the day he's made UO a legit destination for legit dudes to come and train for the pros while competing for championships in school. 

[Jon Joseph]

Great post, makes dollars and cents.

 

I believe the direct payment cap of $21.5 million in the first year of the House settlement will be sustained in court.

 

I also believe the first time a committee of 7 Deloitte accountants determines that an NIL deal is not within 'market value,' will be the last time before their decision is overturned in court.

 

Reviewing all NIL deals $600 and over to determine whether NIL is being used as a recruiting tool sounds good in theory, but it will not withstand a legal challenge. The NFL has a direct salary payment cap, but there is no cap on what an athlete can earn off of his (and her in other sports) Name, Image, and Likeness. 

 

Regardless, overspending on untested players straight out of high school is not likely to yield the same ROI as investing in seasoned players. So, a measured approach by Dan and company makes sense.

 

CFB needs restrictions on free agency akin to what we see in the NFL. But I don't believe this can happen before CFB 'management' negotiates with a Players' Union. The House settlement provides for direct payment from schools to their athletes, but this doesn't make them employees, right? The NCAA and big-time college athletics will part company. Not if, but when.

 

Again, a great post.

 

PS - LOL at Finebaum today opining that 'some guy in a Walmart parking lot' is better suited to rule on the House settlement than 75-year-old Judge Claudia Wilkens.

[David Marsh]

I was writing an article as I was thinking about this exact same thing.... I still might finish it ... but I do think Oregon is ahead of everyone. 

 

I also think there is a very real factor that some of the other college football powers are playing massive catch-up. What USC is doing right now is not current NIL practices or even future NIL practices, USC is seriously doing exactly the same thing that Texas A&M was doing in 2022. Throwing money at all the five stars and thinking that is how you build a roster with NIL money. USC is going to land a great class at this rate but is the locker room going adjust to this influx of money in a positive way or is it going to be a TAMU repeat where it implodes? 

 

Oregon is built around sustainability and Oregon doesn't have recruiting geography on their side. 

 

I'll probably still write that article ... I have more thoughts on this as well. 

 

[The Kamikaze Kid]

On 6/2/2025 at 9:14 PM, David Marsh said:

I'll probably still write that article ... I have more thoughts on this as well. 

Yes please do. I love reading your takes.

[30Duck]

On 6/2/2025 at 9:14 PM, David Marsh said:

USC is seriously doing exactly the same thing that Texas A&M was doing in 2022. Throwing money at all the five stars and thinking that is how you build a roster with NIL money. USC is going to land a great class at this rate but is the locker room going adjust to this influx of money in a positive way or is it going to be a TAMU repeat where it implodes? 

Great take here already. Since Carroll, USC has been struggling. They thought Riley was the answer, but then find themselves stuck with him because they couldn't afford to fire him and hire a new coach. So now they throw a lot of $$ at kids. The symbiotic relationship of kid and school is dissolving, the NIL is lot more important to the player, and his family, than the name on the front of the jersey 

 

 

[Just Ducky]

 Not worried at all about Dan and his staff being able to compete at a high rate in this nil environment. 
 

 Not sure what goes on in their recruiting meetings where they select the kids to go after that fit their needs but in Dan I trust. 
 

 My confidence will only be shaken by a losing season and, that my friends, I don’t see that happening any time soon.

 

Go s

[Jon Joseph]

On 6/3/2025 at 10:02 AM, 30Duck said:

Great take here already. Since Carroll, USC has been struggling. They thought Riley was the answer, but then find themselves stuck with him because they couldn't afford to fire him and hire a new coach. So now they throw a lot of $$ at kids. The symbiotic relationship of kid and school is dissolving, the NIL is lot more important to the player, and his family, than the name on the front of the jersey 

 

 

 

Spot On, 30. SC AD Jen Cohen and SC boosters removed Riley from being the front man for recruiting and portal picking. The front man for recruiting and portal evaluations is the GM hired from Notre Dame at $1 million a year. It was also Jen Cohen and the boosters who instructed Riley to fire the Grinch, who stole defense, and replace him with a capable DC.

 

Riley is being paid $10 M+ a year for being a play caller. 

[HDuck]

short excerpt from a column in The Athletic on June 3

USC added five-star tight end Mark Bowman, who plays for Southern California power Mater Dei, to its 2026 class on Friday. That was a significant pickup for the Trojans, who have the No. 1 class in the country. Bowman is also the third USC commit from Mater Dei this cycle. Mater Dei has long been a traditional pipeline program for the Trojans, but that well dried up in recent cycles. USC hasn’t signed a Mater Dei prospect since the 2022 recruiting cycle, which was Lincoln Riley’s first as head coach.

As we open June, Texas’ 2026 class is ranked 26th nationally in 247Sports Composite. Oregon is 27th. Auburn is 33rd. Michigan is 38th, and Alabama is 45th. Each of these programs finished in the top 10 during the 2025 recruiting cycle.

Oklahoma, South Carolina, Nebraska, Florida and Missouri all sit outside the top 35 of the national rankings after signing top-25 classes last cycle. Kentucky ranks 91st after signing the No. 29 class in 2025.

 

updates here:  2026 Recruit Football Team Rankings

 

June and July have become the most important months on the recruiting calendar.  (Illinois, Kansas and Rutgers all have top-15 classes at the moment), but things don’t start to feel real until June and July, when the heavy hitters put in the most work to build their classes.

[30Duck]

On 6/3/2025 at 1:33 PM, HDuck said:

 

June and July have become the most important months on the recruiting calendar.  (Illinois, Kansas and Rutgers all have top-15 classes at the moment), but things don’t start to feel real until June and July, when the heavy hitters put in the most work to build their classes.

Very true, and given the nature of recruiting, committing, transferring, it makes perfect sense that our "Rival" to the south is the shiny object now. I don't like them getting a star out of Mater Dei. but if he's still there for the '28 season, I'll be surprised. 

[Mike West]

On 6/2/2025 at 9:09 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Reviewing all NIL deals $600 and over to determine whether NIL is being used as a recruiting tool sounds good in theory, but it will not withstand a legal challenge. The NFL has a direct salary payment cap, but there is no cap on what an athlete can earn off of his (and her in other sports) Name, Image, and Likeness

And that is the question. 

 

Can you name any of these high school kids of the to of your tongue that have endorsement deals?

 

Anybody? 

 

Any of these kids signing hundreds of autographs at elite camps?  And I mean sitting down for two hours straight. 

 

I agree there should be no limit to earning money on your NAME LIKENESS AND IMAGE 

 

I'll be the first to congratulate a high school kid that can demonstrate he is worth more than Caitlin Clark ( Mr. Bowman, where is your Nike,Adidas, or Under Armour deal?).

 

Do you think those $2M deals are going to hold under scrutiny?  I'm curious about which local car dealership is going to shell out more than $500,000 to a prospect over four years.  And will the commercials start running the moment the kids gets on campus? 

 

We KNOW who the current players are.  And yes, I've seen some freshman in the spring I'd drop some money on.  But I'm not cutting a $10M check on my grandmother.  And she's dead.  I can bet my bottom dollar both my grandmas get $10M before some schmuck that hasn't played a second of fall football at the next level. 

 

Both would be great in commercials too. ,