I know people are in love with the idea of a home playoff game, but at this point I think we're as likely to have a first-round bye. It probably would just take a loss by either Texas Tech or Georgia in their league title games.

Good point, RichardDuck! There are any number of possibilities that can play out.

We will have to see how the CFP Rankings roll out on Tuesday. See who might be positioned to jump OBD's if they win their conference championship game.

No matter how it goes down DL, staff and players will be ready to play the hand they are dealt.

Not sure about other forum members but Sunday morning is so much better after we beat the huskies.

Go Ducks......

No, because I believe the layoff is too long (it would be a month before Oregon would play again) and teams lose their rhythm, especially on offense, but I think it’s more important what side of the bracket Oregon is on and who they would have to face on the way to the national championship game.

FWIW, George Wrightster, on his post game podcast, said that he believes that Ohio State, Texas Tech and Georgia probably match up best against the Ducks.

There is a path that only involves us playing 3 more games and winning a title, which is crazy if you think about it.

There will absolutely be at least one SEC in the top-4 imo, I have no doubt. So for this scenario to happen it is probably more likely with Georgia staying put and smacking Alabama down. I think given where the ACC is at, it’s pretty safe to say Indiana and tOSU stay in the top-4. The real key is Texas Tech imo. If they lose, and Lane is gone to LSU, someone has to be at 4, and it would probably be us at that point.

That being said, I’ll be shocked if Tech loses. They’re legit and I think BYU is solid, but not really on the same level.

Nothing we can do about it at this point but embrace the chaos.

Edited 1 hour ago1 hr by JabbaNoBargain

At this stage of the season I think a home CFP game would be the best scenario for OBD's.

3 weeks of home cooking and 2 weeks of normal prep for their CFP opponent. And that first round opponent will most likely be traveling 2 or 3 time zones to play in a hostile environment. Weather could play a role in how the game unfolds.

Consider this unfortuneate scenario with the CFP committee. If those members use the correct analytics that they espouse, then OBD's jumps TT and lands #4 this Tuesday. Darn nation!

I expect that the meaningless polls will have OBD's #4.

There are only 2 upsides to a first round by, player rest with much needed healing. And DL and staff will be better prepared to navigate the layoff having traveled this road last year.

Defense matters and travels well and this tram has a solid defense.

Can't wait for all this to unfold. Go Ducks!

1 hour ago, RichardDuck said:

I know people are in love with the idea of a home playoff game, but at this point I think we're as likely to have a first-round bye. It probably would just take a loss by either Texas Tech or Georgia in their league title games.

NO!

Give me seed No. 5! 1st round game vs the American Conference champ or JMU, before most likely playing in the Cotton Bowl.

NO.

Give us a home game against a team from the east or southeast as a warm up for the next week against a team that is cold.

Yes, it exposes you to injuries and possibility of a loss, but odds are still better to win the quarterfinals that way, and it gives our fans some more fun and Autzen more publicity.

All that being said, I have a hard time imagining a top-4 that isn’t some combo of tOSU, Indiana, SEC winner, B12 winner. The committee will probably position BYU to leap us if they finish as a 1 loss P4 conference champ.

Edited 43 minutes ago43 min by JabbaNoBargain

BTW, if a post-champ game 2-loss team is going to be moved to make way for 3-loss Texas, it will again be BYU crying the PO blues.

If 7-5 Duke defeats UVA in the ACC champ game, the ACC could be left out of the PO field in favor of the American champion and Sun Belt champ JMU.

If you want to watch a conference implode, let this happen, and 2-loss Notre Dame getting in instead of 2-loss Miami.

BOYCOTT THE DOMERS! Beg for B12 admittance.

3 minutes ago, Jon Joseph said:

BTW, if a post-champ game 2-loss team is going to be moved to make way for 3-loss Texas, it will again be BYU crying the PO blues.

If 7-5 Duke defeats UVA in the ACC champ game, the ACC could be left out of the PO field in favor of the American champion and Sun Belt champ JMU.

If you want to watch a conference implode, let this happen, and 2-loss Notre Dame getting in instead of 2-loss Miami.

BOYCOTT THE DOMERS! Beg for B12 admittance.

I think people aren't talking about Texas's getting in at all which is a mistake.

They are clearly playing better ball right now than TAMU they beat that was just ranked 3rd.

How does the committee leave them out? They are a massive draw and are playing as good as anyone in the SEC.

It actually scares me a little that there is a possibility we play Texas in Autzen for our 1st playoff game. That's a worst case scenario as a #5 seed if we are being honest.

The committee will NOT put three B1G teams in the top 4.

Not going to happen. OBD starts the playoffs in Autzen.

1 minute ago, Solar said:

I think people aren't talking about Texas's getting in at all which is a mistake.

They are clearly playing better ball right now than TAMU they beat that was just ranked 3rd.

How does the committee leave them out? They are a massive draw and are playing as good as anyone in the SEC.

It actually scares me a little that there is a possibility we play Texas in Autzen for our 1st playoff game. That's a worst case scenario as a #5 seed if we are being honest.

Texas is being left out because one of its 3 losses was to a bad Florida team, and the Longhorns melted down in Athens. Texas also struggled to defeat 5-7 Mississippi State and 5-7 Kentucky, which lost to Louisville yesterday, 41 to Zip.

A&M's SEC opponents have a combined losing record. A&M could not stop the Notre Dame and Arkansas run games, and it is the only P4 opponent Texas was able to run the ball against.

Texas getting in as the SEC's 5th team could happen if the committee moves the Horns past two of the SEC teams it defeated, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt.

If Texas gets in, I think it will be no lower than the 10th seed. And I think OBD will be the 5th or 6th seed.

But ...?

I say the more rest and recovery the better. The Ducks with a fully restocked receiver room and a rested up O line and D will be as scary as anybody in the playoffs. Count me in.

Heather has Texas out and OBD in at No. 5.

ESPN.com

Projecting Tuesday's penultimate CFP top 12

We assess how the committee could stack the top teams in the country after Week 14.

Fun side note, take a hard look at TAM schedule. Obviously they can’t control which conference teams flame out, but:

4 conference wins against teams that fired their coach mid-season.

2 conference wins against MSU and USC

1 great 1 point win over ND

1 good win against Missouri

3 cupcake home wins

1 loss to Texas

Doesn’t exactly strike fear in the heart, and doesn’t make me want to give Texas a whole lot of credit for that win.

Edited 3 minutes ago3 min by JabbaNoBargain