5 Questions for Ducks Football Heading Into the 2022 Season.

[Jon Joseph]

Not a question to begin with, but a statement - the CFB off-season is interminable. Especially, after the way a depleted team did not surrender in the Alamo Bowl after trailing 30-3 at the half. Oregon showed guts and gumption, playing one of the best halves of the season in the 2nd half in San Antonio. On to what I see as 5 key questions heading into the 2022 season.

 

1. Will The Coaching Staff Jell And Sell?

 

We all have high hopes for Dan Lanning. But Dan has never been 'the Man.' On paper, Dan has brought in many the fine assistant coaches, all with terrific recruiting bona fides. But will these 'newbies' jell under the leadership of a head coach in his mid-30s? 

 

And will this group be able to sell a new system on both O and D to a still young Ducks squad? Will they be able to communicate the new systems to the players? One spring and one fall practice provides little time to do so before opening against the defending national champion.

 

2. Will the Team Be Able to Overcome The Loss Of Production On O?

 

According to the Action Network's Returning Production Data, the Ducks O comes into the 2022 season having lost 80% of the 2021 production on O. This puts Oregon at No. 80 out of the 131 G5/P5 teams ranked by Action Network. 

 

With Brown, Dye (sigh) and Verdell moving on, Oregon is losing 80% of its 2021 rushing attempts. The good news, RB Cardwell returns having rushed for 8.6 YPC in 2021. And flipping RB James from UGA was a very good 'get.' But the RB room in 2022, if not already painted green, should be.

 

Probably the best news on the O side of the ball is the OL returning 4 of the 5 guys who started in the Alamo Bowl, guys who played 85.2% of 2021 OL snaps. In this category Oregon comes in at comfortable No. 8 ranking. And the 2022 OL will be aided and abated by a very good and deep, group of TEs.

 

At least in theory the offense will not be micro-managed by Dan Lanning, will be more up-tempo under OC Dillingham and will not play 'small-ball.'

 

3. Will The Team Be Able To Overcome The Loss Of Production On D?

 

Action Network shows Oregon losing 53% of its 2021 production on D, No. 55 in the nation.

 

In 2021, the Oregon D ranked a dismal 109 in Havoc Rate. However, the D needed a MASH Unit to look after all the guys who were injured. Foundational players like LB Noah Sewell (114 tackles, 8.5 TFL and 5 pass breakups,) DL Popo Amuvae and DL Brandon Dorlus return. But a player the quality of LB Justin Flowe has to be and stay healthy. To date, Flowe has appeared in 2 of the 21 games played since his arrival.

 

The DBs have lost a couple of young CBs to the portal but there is talent returning and CB Gonzalez comes in from Colorado. 

 

Most importantly, Dan Lanning knows what he is doing when it comes to D and on paper, so do all of the assistant coaches on the D side of the ball.  I have high hopes for the D playing together as a unit in a far better system on D. In Pac-12 conference play, the talent on the D side should be as good or better than any team and will not be dwarfed by an OL that the D plays against.

 

4. Will The Ducks Be Able To Overcome A Witch Of A Schedule?

 

The Ducks open on the road 'at' Georgia. The defending champion will come into this game returning its championship QB and ranked a most likely No. 2 or 3 in the AP Preseason Poll.

 

E. Washington is not an FCS lay-up; especially when playing E WA after what will undoubtedly be a very physical game versus Georgia.

 

Then, Oregon gets BYU, a team that went 5-0 versus the Pac-12 in 2021 and a team that will be preseason ranked in the top 20. 

 

And 2022 is a year in which Oregon has to play 5 conference road games.  This includes teeing it up against a very dangerous Washington State Cougars the Saturday after facing the BYU Cougars.

 

It will be a home game, but Oregon also crosses-over against defending Pac-12 champ, Utah. 

 

5. Who Starts At QB?

 

Auburn transfer Bo Nix, Ty Thompson and Jay Butterfield give Oregon a deep and talented QB room. But only 1 guy can start. Nix is reuniting with OC Dillingham, Nix position coach the season Nix was Freshman of the Year on O in the SEC. Nix has wins over Alabama and Oregon on his resume. 

 

I expect the competition for the starting QB position will continue through fall camp. In this day and age of college football 'free agency,' via the transfer portal, why give any team an early shot at QB 'roster-tampering?' 

 

Oregon will have the highest ranked roster in the Pac-12. But the schedule in particular presents a very difficult challenge for a new head coach, one with no head coaching experience.

 

Can't hardly wait for the Spring Game on April 23rd and the opener on September 3rd.

 

Go Ducks!

 

 

[DanLduck]

Great questions JJ. Lots to ponder.

1. Mostly yes.

These coaches are new as a team, but all have had valuable experience and have pretty good pedigree backgrounds. I see them being very successful, but still green as a team so errors will occur. Will it cost us a game? Possibly. 

 

I do think that coach Lanning is a true leader. Reading what I could of his past, it seems his friends and coworkers have always willingly followed his lead, going back to high school days.

 

Being "the guy" is a big deal for a first timer, but if anyone is up to it, I believe he is. 

It may take a few years to truly develop into the next 'Saban' however. 

 

2.&3. Yes. Next man up. 

 

As you pointed out, we have a very talented roster and they are young and ready.

It's a positive that there is so much youth to go with new coaches and new systems. There will be less 'old' to forget.

There will be growing pains that may cost a game, but I believe that this is the perfect time to start a new system on offense and defense. 

 

A huge key will be staying healthy. Huge

 

4. Ugh.

Ready or not, the competition begins.

Talk about your stress right out of the gate!

Your point here is a good reminder that if for some horrible reason we start out less than 2-2 to start the year, we should not abandon ship and curse Lanning and Co. 

 

It is indeed a very tough start, and one I hope Mullens never puts us through again. 

That being said, we have talented players and coaches. We should anticipate success but temper expectations with reality.

 

But our talented team should rise to the challenge and be ready to play 

 

5. ????????????

Who knows. We have not seen enough of each player to know.

 

For sure though, whoever does win the job will be talented. 

And for me, that's good enough. 

[Haywarduck]

1. Will they be able to communicate the schemes with a new head coach and all new pieces in a coaching puzzle. This is the million dollar question. Lanning may become an amazing coach and the assistant may be everything we have been sold, but this is a new staff in every sense of the prefix, un.. untried, unaccustomed and I could go on. Patience on the side of the fanbase is critical.

 

2. Will the Ducks O be stronger without the destruction of our Offense? This is the most interesting and will be the most watched question.

 

3. Not too worried with the coaching talent on D coming in, but maybe this is the wildcard.

 

4. Huge test to start the season. If we get out of that 2-1 I give Dan an A, 1-2 a B-. What I want to see is a competitive team which is getting better each game.

 

5. Not too worried about the question at qb, as long as we get an answer, and development.

[30Duck]

Fortunately, what helps us get through the interminable off season are all these questions to ponder. None of which can be answered now. Lanning has all the qualities of a top head coach, and his assistants are all talented and experienced and appear to be united in bringing the championship to Oregon.

 

2. I'm going to say we actually can answer this question. Lanning and Dillingham will not be a repeat of Cristobal and whoever the OC was. A new roster of talent, especially a top line O Line is ready to bring excitement back to the O.

 

3. I am nothing but Optimistic about the opening season of the Dan Lanning D at Oregon.

 

4. The schedule is truly daunting. But the only game that I will assign an L to now is the first one. This is not to say that I will throw my arms up in disgust if the Ducks lose any of the others, but I am 3/4 glass full at the moment.

 

5. A win / win in the QB room. An experienced SEC QB, with experience with the OC in Nix, or a talented Thompson or Butterfield that outplayed him and earned the start. 

 

[Kurt Rambis]

Well, nothing anyone can do about #4.

 

#2 and #3 I'm not overly worried about.  MC left a pretty stocked cupboard, and the team was EXTREMELY young last year.  

 

That leaves #1 and #5 as the critical factors, not just for this year, but for the future as well.  That's why I'm hoping one of the young guns at QB takes hold of the job and sticks there (deservedly) throughout the season.  If Nix is our starter, that's a one-year solution to a team that probably doesn't have a huge shot at the playoffs. 

 

One or both of the two young QBs will likely leave, meaning a total restart next year.  I'm happier to take some lumps this year as a transition year anyway, then hopefully have an established veteran at QB for next season with a full recruiting class and a full year under new coordinators and position coaches.  

[McDuck]

Don't both Bo Nix and Jay Butterfield have an extra year due to covid?  Nix would potentially have two years, Butterfield and Thompson each have three.

[Jon Joseph]

On 3/6/2022 at 4:23 PM, Kurt Rambis said:

Well, nothing anyone can do about #4.

 

#2 and #3 I'm not overly worried about.  MC left a pretty stocked cupboard, and the team was EXTREMELY young last year.  

 

That leaves #1 and #5 as the critical factors, not just for this year, but for the future as well.  That's why I'm hoping one of the young guns at QB takes hold of the job and sticks there (deservedly) throughout the season.  If Nix is our starter, that's a one-year solution to a team that probably doesn't have a huge shot at the playoffs. 

 

One or both of the two young QBs will likely leave, meaning a total restart next year.  I'm happier to take some lumps this year as a transition year anyway, then hopefully have an established veteran at QB for next season with a full recruiting class and a full year under new coordinators and position coaches.  

The fall out at the QB position, with you I agree. Exacerbated perhaps by Nix having two seasons of eligibility left. Coming into 2022, Ty Thompson has 4 seasons remaining. We, including most definitely moi, tend to forget that 2020 was a no-loss-of-eligibility season. And RS seasons in addition to no-count 2020 are available.

 

I do not necessarily disagree, but I think that if Nix gets the gig one of Thompson or Butterfield will stick around? And there are some big time QBs on the Ducks recruiting radar.

 

The portal for better or worse has changed the QB recruiting calculus. Last season's presumptive Heisman winner from Oklahoma,  will be starting in 2022 at South Carolina.

[Kurt Rambis]

On 3/6/2022 at 11:21 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Last season's presumptive Heisman winner from Oklahoma,  will be starting in 2022 at South Carolina.

And the other Oklahoma QB, who was one of the front runners for next year's Heisman, will be starting at the other USC.

 

Totally forgot that Nix would have two years.  Which means a) if he starts and holds that job, I'd have to assume Butterfield and Thompson would both depart, and b) if he starts and plays really well, we could have a strong QB for two years.  Worst case is he wins the starting job and underwhelms, while the other two are transferring.  

 

Frankly, I just want what's best for the team both short and long term, and I have no idea what that will be.  I remember the mistakes when Harrington, Musgrave, Herbert, and Mariota were young, but I also remember what they all grew into.

[OhioDuck]

Thanks, some good questions to consider and good comments. Just a few of my own to add.

 

I think the question of the coaching staff coming together is a common question with a new coach who brings in new people.

It might take a little while (and of course with the first game next season we don't have very long).

 

I also think there is a question of the new staff jelling with the players remaining from the last staff. That one may be more telling. Everything we read seems to be positive, but let's see what happens on the field.

 

I'm not too concerned about the Nix staying 2 years thing and losing both Thompson and Butterfield. If he plays well, he'll have an opportunity to play for money (more than college NIL I think) the next year. If he's playing poorly, I cannot see Thompson and Butterfield not getting their chance to replace him.

 

A big plus is we have a lot coming back on the O line. whoever the QB is and the running backs are there will be protection and holes. Wide receiver is young but talented. If everyone jells with Dillingham's system offense could be fun again!

 

On D the linebackers have a chance to be spectacular! If the D-line is good and the D backs are good (don't have to be great) then the D will be good. I think with Lanning's/Lupoi's system unleashing those linebackers the D could also be very good. 

 

Will any of the good possibilities happen soon enough to shock the world in Atlanta in September? That might be a tall order. But I definitely think we can be 2-1 heading into conference play.