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FishDuck Article

Regarding Bo Nix: Beware ‘Bandwagon Buy-In’

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Thanks for the PM Krsmqn and looking out!

Edited by DazeNconfused
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     This has made for great reading. Agree with him or not,  DNC’s stats, analysis and conclusions brings out the best in our OBD forum. Welcome!

 

     For all the talent/personality analysis, stats, comparisons, situations, and other variables, it all seems to boil down to one question: can an old dog learn new tricks?

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On 8/3/2022 at 10:16 AM, Washington Waddler said:

This has made for great reading. Agree with him or not,  DNC’s stats, analysis and conclusions brings out the best in our OBD forum. Welcome!

I agree completely. I'm going into this season overflowing with optimism. but until reading this article I really hadn't given much thought to how Nix would do.

 

That looks bad reading it back. But I think I was just so thankful that the Ducks would be running a new O, with an experienced QB, that with the D I'm expecting, the W's will come. I know I don't want Manziel 2.0, I didn't like the original. 

 

 

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I'm skeptical of Nix as well.

 

IMO, most impressive in the Spring Game was Butterfield.

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Over (many) years of following college football, I've often been a fan of stats, ratings, and more recently some of the advanced metrics.

 

However, at some point you have to trust your eyeballs, and no matter what the statistics might suggest, AB was not good at passing component of the QB spot last season. 

 

You obviously should not read too much into a spring game plus a review of some highlight clips, but from the looks of it Nix is light years ahead of what we saw from AB with the forward pass.

 

AB was reasonably careful with the ball, good with his legs, and decent directing that jumbled mess of an offense Mario and Morehead threw out there each week. But he struggled mightily with anything other than a "gimmie" throw (and that wasn't even really automatic).

 

The plan (apparently) is for the Duck offense to add a modern down field passing component to this offense, so the Ducks will be better in that department, regardless of what numbers someone wants to throw up there, from what eyeballs tell me. The comments from Auburn fans about missing WRs on some types of vertical routes will be something to watch, but I would be pretty shocked to see it look like 2021.

 

As most discussion and analysis over the long off-season has focused upon, it's the killer mistakes and hard to explain decisions that will be the point of focus with Nix, not his ability to put a ball in the hands of an open receiver eight yards down field.

 

I'm hoping this isn't another season of "why isn't the coaching staff playing the backups? They have stars from high school recruiting gurus - so they must be way better than who the staff is deciding to play - what are the coaches doing?"

 

As much as many of us Duck fans don't want to hear it, AB most likely played because the coaching staff was confident he gave the team the best chance to do well last year. There was no one (at least no one ready) to ride in on a white horse and save the thing.

 

As painful as it is to suggest, I didn't really see anything in the Stony Brook, Arizona, and Colorado games and then the spring game that suggested TT was clearly gonna quickly get up to speed and ignite the season in 2021 (maybe down the road though). If Nix wins the spot this year - under a completely different staff- it probably won't be them becoming boneheads with the most important position on the field.

 

Finally, my guess would be the former Duck staff was probably a bit at a loss with AB as well. Watching some BC video myself and reading some analysis, Brown WAS a better QB in 2019 at BC. The guy many of us have probably have read an article or two from, who does in detail Duck game film breakdown (Hythloday1), wrote AB's decline as a passer from BC to Oregon "is the biggest mystery I've ever encountered as a film reviewer." One has to wonder how much of that has to be left at the feet of Mario and Moorhead?

 

Edited by AnotherOD
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The Manziel 2.0 may be the best guess. Hopefully he will have a better O-line, a few go to receivers, and make Nix magically become the Bo Throwing and Going Show!

 

We deserve it after the Brown Downs and Out show. At least I won't have my wife being able to predict the next play coming from our sideline.

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On 8/3/2022 at 5:47 AM, Wrathis said:

The way I feel this year is still the same way I did last year which is, get our QB of the future the experience he needs to be able to lead the team to greatness...

Your whole post was solid, but I really agree with you on this part. If Nix can't make a jump, then it's next QB up! 

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On 8/3/2022 at 10:40 AM, cartm25 said:

I'm skeptical of Nix as well.

 

IMO, most impressive in the Spring Games was Butterfield.

I liked how Butters showed he could get through the progressions to his check down to the running back. That means Butters can calmly run the offense and take what the defense gives him, take the positive play. Some plays just don't go into the coverage the defense ran that play.

 

Butters seems to have the confidence to take the check down and come get the defense on the next play.

Edited by DazeNconfused
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On 8/3/2022 at 10:42 AM, AnotherOD said:

 

 

Brown WAS a better QB in 2019 at BC. The guy many of us have probably have read an article or two who does in detail Duck game film breakdown (Hythloday1) said AB's decline as a passer from BC to Oregon "is the biggest mystery I've ever encountered as a film reviewer." One has to wonder how much of that has to be left at the feet of Mario and Moorhead?

 

BC brought in Mike Bakakian as OC for AB,s junior year, he was the Tampa Bay Buc QB coach from 2015-2018. 

 

AB blew up under Bakakian in 2019 and his yards per completion was just outside the top 10 in FBS and his passer rating was inside the Top 20 of FBS. The Sporting News had AB as th3 #9 rated Transfer QB.

 

I'd say the blame has to go to Mario and Moorhead for AB's fall off.

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I'm not buying into any hype.

 

But, I'm confident that between Bo, Ty, and Butters.... Our QB play will be far better than anything AB did. As long as this proves we'll be just fine.

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On 8/3/2022 at 4:10 AM, Kurt Rambis said:

My biggest fear about the Ducks' season is that we'll waste a year finding out that Nix pretty much is who he showed he was at Auburn.  Are Butterfield or Thompson ready?  No idea.  But if we don't have a reliable QB1, this season is toast before it begins.

 

I'd rather have growing pains with one of the young guys and have a great QB for late in the season and next year, than spend much of the year watching Nix implode and then switching to one of the younger QBs when it's too late.  

 

Maybe Nix will start and be terrific.  I just fear otherwise given what he's shown in his career thus far.

Playing against SEC defenses like NIX has done is much harder than the Swiss cheese secondaries he will see this year in the PAC -12.    BO will do well in my opinion. 

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I can give you a list of top 10 college defenses Bo NIx has had to build stats against.  I can give you a list of college backs, who are now pros, NIX has thrown against.  Now tell me again who exactly has Thompson or Butterfield faced? 

 

Comparing QB stats is tricky.  You have to look at the competition.  Bo isn't facing future NFL starters on Defense every game in the PAC this year like he did in the SEC.

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On 8/3/2022 at 5:40 AM, Just Ducky said:

 I’ve watched a fair amount of Bo Nix film and it seemed to me the pocket around him collapsed pretty fast. He was running for his life most of the time.

 

 It was genius for DL to bring in Bo to face the Dogs rather than throwing our two young guns to the Wolves, I mean Dogs, for their first college start in a hostile environment. Bo has seen this many times so he is their best option out of the gate.

 

 If he doesn’t get the job done a loss to Georgia isn’t going to ruin the Ducks season. What a great way to start the new guy against Eastern Washington at home before a date with BYU.

 

 I may be reaching to high to think Bo will change but I have confidence that he can win in the pack. He did beat Alabama once and how many QBs are 500 against That group. A large portion of his losses are against highly ranked teams and Auburn has struggled with coaching changes his whole career so at least he has a familiar face in Dillingham.

 

 I will drink🍸the Kool-Aid 😉😉 on this one.

 

He beat Alabama....enough said.  A reasonable person must accept BO played real defenses.  his stats in the Pac 12 would be off the charts against our defenses.

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ANOTHER great article, DNC. I appreciate the fact that you don't just take a position that will please most of us diehard Duck fans. Your positions thus far have always been well-supported by extensive research. Clearly, from the number of comments, you're giving all of us something to think about and debate. Well done! Looking forward to your future articles.

 

By the way, DNC, did you ever live in the Watergate Apartments in the early 70s? 

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Well, practice is just about to start and a starter has not been named yet. We are not even sure Nix will walk out and take the first snap. 

 

My best hope for this season has always been that the coaching staff will not be hesitant to pull a guy who is not having a good game.

 

If Nix starts, we have two guys who can come in and maybe they are hot that day when Nix isn't. 

 

My biggest problem with last year was that sometimes AB was playing just awful and the Ty and Butters didn't get a chance to come in and see what they could have done.

 

If Nix has those days, I hope they will let the other guys come in. There is no way they could have player worse than some of the games Brown had last year.

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We don’t necessarily need him to have any kind of blow out season, just improve enough to be above average. That in itself will provide enough offensive boost to provide a successful season.

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On 8/3/2022 at 11:15 AM, Pac10again said:

I can give you a list of top 10 college defenses Bo NIx has had to build stats against.  I can give you a list of college backs, who are now pros, NIX has thrown against.  Now tell me again who exactly has Thompson or Butterfield faced? 

 

Comparing QB stats is tricky.  You have to look at the competition.  Bo isn't facing future NFL starters on Defense every game in the PAC this year like he did in the SEC.

Here is a list of the SEC QB's the last two years who were better than Nix. Stenson Bennet, Kyle Trask, Felipe Franks, Kellen Mond, Hendon Hooker, Matt Coral and then Mac Jones and Bryce Young. 

 

How come all those other SEC QB's were better than Nix against that list of top 10 defenses and DB's who are now in the NFL?

 

Doesn't it seem to be a concern Nix was worse than all those SEC QB's?

 

That said it doesn't rule out the fact Nix could be good this year, but he has to prove it.

Edited by DazeNconfused
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On 8/3/2022 at 12:02 PM, kirklandduck said:

We don’t necessarily need him to have any kind of blow out season, just improve enough to be above average. That in itself will provide enough offensive boost to provide a successful season.

Improve good enough to keep Ty and Butters off the field is the minimum he must do.

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On 8/3/2022 at 11:24 AM, WiseKwacker said:

By the way, DNC, did you ever live in the Watergate Apartments in the early 70s? 

No Sir.

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I will trust our coaches with who will be our best chance to win, which is the most important thing after all. 

 

I wonder what the talent level of the OL to block, WR to run routes, and competition played was for the QBs that were named as better than Bo last year? Wouldn't that matter in the analysis? Were they also dealing with new coaches? If he was that bad why did he start for 3 yrs?

 

Camp is just starting. All the QBs will have a chance to grab the bull by the horns and win the job. That's the only stat that matters to me.

 

Go Ducks Fly High!

30 days and counting!

 

 

 

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I'm not sure when I ever wanted a writer to be more wrong.

 

However, if Daze is correct, then we should see early on how the QB room will be managed under Lanning.

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On 8/3/2022 at 2:47 PM, Steven A said:

I'm not sure when I ever wanted a writer to be more wrong.

Hey Steven A, I can't see real good...is that Bill Shakespeare over there? From what I've heard, DZNC has been using that paper not for writing, but for rolling doobies!MattFoley.jfif

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Thank you so much for this article.  Having great analyzes about our team and coaches brings a healthy perspective entering into the season.

 

 

Edited by NJDuck
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On 8/3/2022 at 5:05 AM, FishDuck Article said:

 

Nix has never been as good as Anthony Brown was even last year...why should we think he'll be the solution at QB?

 

Bo-Nix-2_From-Twitter-300x300-cropped.pn
FISHDUCK.COM

Bo Nix was a highly touted five-star recruit, a player that draws mixed emotions from fans. Will Oregon offensive coordinator...

 

Great article DazeNconfused!!! You have inspired many interesting and enjoyable posts to read.  It’s awesome to see a thread have so many contributors interacting.  

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Excellent work O Dazed One. I feared what you uncovered was true but after the Anthony Brown experience, I couldn't bring myself to dive into the question. Sunny side: If Nix turns into 40 miles of bad road, we will have a chance to grade our new coaches on two levels. First, we will see if they have the courage to pull him from a game and try someone new--as Rich Brooks, Mike Bellotti and Chip Kelly would. Second, will Thompson or Butterfield be ready to roll...has the new staff done a better job of developing their  immense talents than the coaches under Cristobal. 

 

Cristobal stuck with AB beyond all reason, arguing that neither backup QB could do better. Cristobal also was risk averse.

 

Compare that to, say, Bellotti. He developed quarterbacks. He took risks. He yanked A.J. Feeley, who went on to more than a decade in the NFL, and put in Joey Harrington, who promptly led a heroic comeback to beat Arizona State and became the starter. The coaches had developed two future NFL quarterbacks on same team--and Bellotti wasn't afraid to pull the terrific veteran for the promising kid. 

 

That's a head coach.

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