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FishDuck Article

Regarding Bo Nix: Beware ‘Bandwagon Buy-In’

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Here is my article from last week looking at where coach Dillingham got his Chops that he needs to use to get Bo to the next level this year.

 

Flortida-State-Athletics-Youtube-Kenny-D
FISHDUCK.COM

New 32-year-old OC Kenny Dillingham's age is making Oregon fans ask "how can he have the experience and acumen being so young, and yet ready for the primetime?

 

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On 8/3/2022 at 7:49 AM, Charles Fischer said:

A while back, I went to a large Auburn site and asked them for their honest thoughts about Bo Nix. This is the first of many posts showing their comments...


"Needed a better QB coach at AU. Great athleticism. Really good runner. Good speed. Decision making might be suspect. Pretty good arm. Left the pocket too quick, imo. Don't know the reason for that, but it happened. I lay the blame on lack of quality QB coaching."

 

"On a team of athletes (like Oregon), he'll be one of your best."

 

"Bo nix is great for 3 or 4 plays. Then he's going to make a stupid play that makes you go "Why would he do that?". Just hope the 3-4 good plays are enough to overcome running backwards 20 yards before being sacked."

 

"57 TDs in 3 years and 16ints plus 4 fumbles. I’d say the good plays outweighed the “stupid” ones but everyone has their own opinion."

 

"Most of his picks were just bad decisions, don’t recall many being off of deflections but plenty were rushed. He should continue to be one of the better rushing QBs but haven’t seen him since the injury."

 

Bo Nix shows Auburn 'scary' improvement in season opener

 

"Nix is one of those quarterbacks who is horrible under pressure, but when given some time by his offensive line he will produce as soon as he learns to calm down and go through his progressions."

 

"My impression of Nix at Auburn is that he was able to get by in high school by sheer athleticism and he was successful in forcing things to happen. He never learned at the college level that athleticism only goes so far (because you are surrounded by superior athletes) and that forcing things to happen at that level often has disastrous consequences. He won some games that way in spectacular heroic fashion, but more often than not he created disasters forcing plays. He's got tools and he's got heart. If they can teach him teamwork and break him of trying to do it all himself he'll be a standout."

 

"For one year in a new environment, especially with a program like Oregon—-a great opportunity. At AU he was High risk and high reward. Lots of heart but not necessarily a leader. His maverick side will win you games you don’t expect and lose you possessions you didn’t see coming.
 

Had great moments at AU based on his athleticism. His overall body of work will forever be overshadowed by the perceived descent of his head coach. All QBs are under a microscope- Bo Nix was more so than most. In a new environment without the legacy pressure and all that he could lock in and really thrive."

 

"Bo Nix was headed to State Farm Insurance once his days on the Plains were over. He made the best decision for himself, and moving to Oregon is an opportunity to get new perspective and perhaps put himself in position to be viewed as an NFL QB. Staying at Auburn, that wasn't going to happen. Oregon could possibly play themselves into the playoffs if Bo plays at his best. Oregon will give Georgia a run early but don't have the athleticism to play 4 qtrs against the SEC's finest.

 

From there the media will fall in love with Oregon and their schedule plays out well to win 9 in a row or so. Bo will throw for 400 against E. Washington and some west coast bloggers will be drooling all over themselves to promote the former SEC kid as a Heisman front runner. The biggest questions are these. 1.) Will Bo win the locker room, and will he keep it through wins and losses or will he begin to blame those around him? (Remember this move out west was all about Bo). 2.) Will Bo, now married, alienate himself from the other leaders on the team? 3.) More of a statement than a question, I've always felt that is if Bo Nix's name was Johnny Morris, he would have been at NC State. Best of luck."

This supports my thoughts that if Dilly gets Nix to stop making stupid plays and focus on distributing the ball to his play makers, Bo could still be good enough keep us in the Playoff picture late in the year. The potential is there.

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A while back, I went to a large Auburn site and asked them for their honest thoughts about Bo Nix. This is the second post with these responses from Tiger fans...

 

"Bo Nix was a very athletic QB who could make plays with his legs and his arm in a lot of ad-lib situations in High School. He was a legacy at Auburn who had huge shoes to fill long before he stepped on campus. He made those shoes a little bigger when he made a few plays late in that game against you guys in 2019. After that, he was the victim of a High School veer offense and a coach who refused to change his scheme to match the strengths of his offense. He tries too hard many times to make the great play...maybe that was due to the pressure here. Hopefully he can settle down and make a great QB in the PNW."

 

"Full of raw talent. Thinks he knows more than college coaches. If a coaching staff can get him to shut his mouth and listen and learn then he has a shot to be an NFL QB."

 

"He is a better athlete than QB. Biggest problem is he is a mental midget. Really folds under pressure (backwards spike!) not a leader. But I think he will do great there. He will be a better athlete than anybody on defense in the PAC and can run around and make it all about him."

 

"As your offensive line goes, will Bo Nix go..."

 

"Bo's problem was zero offensive line. You have to bail early when there is no pocket to work behind. Since there no pocket to work in, there also was no run blocking either. When you know the line is not man enough to gain one yard, the trend is to do stupid things. Last year was obvious that there were more internal problems than anyone realized. Bo showed sparks of the Quarterback he could be. It's too bad we didn't have the ability to back that spark up with true talent."

 

LETTER TO THE EDITOR | Don't give up on Bo Nix and the Tigers yet - The  Auburn Plainsman

 


"I saw him 2 times in HS and said...if he relies on athleticism to make a big play in college it won't work. I then saw him do those things in college and they worked very rarely. I thought he should have been a zone read QB from day 1. He's a good to great runner at the spot..."

 

"A lot of natural talent with very little development over his 3 seasons at Auburn. His style of play reminded me of my high school team's quarterback in 1980. A weak offensive line meant he spent most of his time running for his life and inevitably made some bad decisions in the process. Showed a unique ability to make something from nothing at times."

 

"He tends to overthrow (gets excited I guess). Which means he has the arm, but not the touch. I suspect he has more potential than our coaching staff was able to develop, though. We'll see if that suspicion is correct this season."

 

"I think he has the chance to do well at Oregon. "Maddeningly inconsistent" is how I would describe his play at Auburn. Looked great for stretches, then would disappear. If he could have played in the offense Gus ran 8+ years ago, he probably would have thrived. But for some reason, Gus got away from what made him successful."

 

"His deep balls were inconsistent. He often (from my memory) overthrew some open receivers deep. I think that ties into his emotional state when playing. He is not a calm and cool type of QB."

Mr. FishDuck

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Trust the coaches to play to win. The other side of the same coin is playing not to lose. IMHO We have experienced the play not to lose from the previous staff. 

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A while back, I went to a large Auburn site and asked them for their honest thoughts about Bo Nix. This is the final post with these responses from Tiger fans; some great perspectives!

 

"He throws deep balls of his back foot often. Bad habit good QB coaching can help break. Same with him leaving the pocket too early at times.

The kid has plenty of talent and is a hard nosed competitor and an above average athlete. He can get himself in trouble trying to force plays or trying to make something from nothing. He also needs to mature mentally and as a leader; he has had a few completely out of line blowups on the sidelines with his both his coaches and with teammates on more than one occasion."

 

"Bo is as hard a competitor as I’ve seen in my 39 yrs following AU football. He played for better part of a half on a broken ankle. Kid is tough and as good an athlete as I’ve ever seen at QB in all my years. Like most QBs given time he’s pretty dang good. He really protects the football (56TDs—16ints) which leads to his leaving the pocket a bit too early. I think Oregon got one helluva a kid and QB. I’ll be watching the Ducks a lot this fall pulling for Bo and y’all. Best of Luck."

 

"The other few points to remember about Bo Nix is that WR coaching has been severely lacking for years at Auburn and offensive line recruiting has been a problem as well, at least partially due to the unique blocking schemes of the previous coach, so you might want to consider those things along with the many comments above. Then, when Harsin came to town, he made a very poor choice for WR coach, and last year started off bad, got a little better, then got worse, and a lot of those WR's chose to take their ball and go home at the end of the year. How does that reflect on Nix? I don't know, but I suspect he will have better coached WR's and a more competitive OL to work with out on the left coast."

 

"Outside of the game against Oregon, ironically, he never really showed he could lead the team down the field and score the ball to win the game. Locked up in the red zone. Couldn’t make the play or the throw to get it in.

Also, he can’t hit a wide open receiver running down the sideline. Good luck with that one. As one poster said, he has the arm, doesn’t have the touch. I echo all the things said about his personality and work ethic. I just don’t think he has the “it” factor to get you to the next level. Hasn’t proved he can make the big time throws when you need him to."

 

Nix, Auburn unload on LSU in 48-11 win | The Trussville Tribune

 

"Bo can do some amazing scrambling. Of course, he had a lot of practice running for his life."

 

"Saw plenty of great designed plays where he simply didn't execute. Hit the wrong receiver, underthrew the wide open receiver, held the ball too long, etc. Lost a handful of games simply by his own bonehead-ed-ness."

"Bo works better in an offense where he can create plays or turn bad plays into good ones. He is quite the competitor. However, he was terrible at audibles, but Gus only allowed a few that I know of.

 

Bo is NOT a pocket passer. That requires a great since of timing and a great arm. Bo has neither so that is why he runs around a lot. He is not effective on deep outs or crossing routes. Frankly, I thought Seth Williams bailed him out a lot. He is more successful in throws down the seam or in the middle of the field. The TE in the old offense was non existent, but he can throw there.

 

Sorry to say, but he isn’t the kind of leader that EVERYONE will respond to. He can be and is a very polarizing figure with his team and the fan base alike. He is loyal almost to a fault, but he has a very bad habit of pointing his fingers elsewhere when he is better off thinking it through and doing it quietly.

 

Its almost like he does a lot of good but he gets in his own way. Also, when he is good, he can be really good. But if he starts out slow or tails off in the middle of a game, he can’t get it back. This is probably due to his emotions. I won’t say he is immature but he can channel that excess energy in a more positive direction to get better results.

 

This is probably too wordy and TMI. I wish him well. He did a lot of good things for us. I don’t think he and Harsin completely saw eye to eye, therefore the transfer."

Mr. FishDuck

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On 8/3/2022 at 10:24 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Perhaps you missed the part in the article where DZC explained how it was Chad Morris who visited Oregon and installed the Oregon Spread at Clemson and began their Natty runs.

No I didn't miss it, but I think he is conflating the idea that because Chad Morris installed a spread offense and recruited players successfully for Clemson over a 4 year period, that Bo Nix can't be coached up beyond where he currently is. 

 

To me, those two ideas are in-congruent and there are other contributing factors that better explain why he hasn't lived up to expectations...such as having only 1 season with an OC every year of his career so far.  This requires learning a new offense and having your game tweaked by someone with a different perspective every year and then starting over the next year and doing it again.  Not an ideal situation for a QB to get better year over year.

 

My second point was AB playing Pac defenses and Bo playing SEC defenses probably has more to do with AB's stats being better than AB being a better QB.  

 

 

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Some posters have hit on the "Grit" Bo has. That's a great point I maybe was selling him short on.

 

The Kid is one heck of an athlete, and he seems to give 110% every game and leave it all on the field.

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MC and AD were not ever up against SEC defenses--I would think Bo should do a bit better in the PAC. Of course he has to face Ga in the opening game. 🙄

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On 8/3/2022 at 8:16 AM, DCDuckfan said:

No I didn't miss it, but I think he is conflating the idea that because Chad Morris installed a spread offense and recruited players successfully for Clemson over a 4 year period, that Bo Nix can't be coached up beyond where he currently is. 

 

To me, those two ideas are in-congruent and there are other contributing factors that better explain why he hasn't lived up to expectations...such as having only 1 season with an OC every year of his career so far.  This requires learning a new offense and having your game tweaked by someone with a different perspective every year and then starting over the next year and doing it again.  Not an ideal situation for a QB to get better year over year.

 

My second point was AB playing Pac defenses and Bo playing SEC defenses probably has more to do with AB's stats being better than AB being a better QB.  

 

 

I get your points and they are legit. I'm saying Morris turned out Taj Boyd and recruited Deshawn Watson and coached him his freshman year.

 

Morris has QB coaching chops along with his OC swagger. Why didn't Nix improve his year under Morris? I'd love to hear what Morris thinks of Bo, does he think he is a bust or has great potential? 

 

I compared AB's stats in the ACC to Bo's stats in the SEC and I won't argue that the SEC isn't better competition. ( BTW - AB's stats were worse in the Pac under Mario)

 

Let's get back to AB's stats at BC: they are right there with Herberts senior year passer rating of 156 and they both threw for over 9 yards per pass

 

I think it's possible Nix can come in and match that type of production, we know Herbs was held back his senior year, but he was still good. If Nix can be that good, then we could be in the playoff hunt with the defense we have. 

 

If Nix in a more open offensive scheme, with this Oline and skill guys can't match those AB-Herb numbers then we got a problem. 

 

 

 

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On 8/3/2022 at 8:26 AM, 1Ducker1 said:

MC and AD were not ever up against SEC defenses--I would think Bo should do a bit better in the PAC. Of course he has to face Ga in the opening game. 🙄

I get your point and hope Bo is better in the Pac than he was in the SEC. 

But let's ask ourselves why Bo was worse than SEC QB's Kellen Mond, Kyle Trask, Felipe Franks, Stenson Bennett, Hendon Hooker the last two years? Notice I Ieft Mac Jones and Bryce Young off that list?

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On 8/3/2022 at 10:34 AM, Charles Fischer said:

My friends, I told you DazeNconfused was going to bring you football, but not always what we want to read, but what we need to read.  I did not like reading the facts at all, but I am grateful to have the information, and thus have more realistic expectations going into the season.  This is an outstanding article, as the research and presentation has not been published anywhere like this. 

 

DZNC does critical analysis, and I am thankful for it.  

 

I also believe this is going to tell us a ton about how Dillingham is as a QB coach; the potential is there--can Dilly bring it to the surface?

Just to be clear, I appreciate DZNC's perspective...I just see some things differently and figured I would opine. 

 

That said, this is a great article because it is backed up with supporting info but it also opens the door to contrary views and provides space for disagreement and discussion.  To me that is ideal versus just having everyone give a thumbs up in agreement. 

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On 8/3/2022 at 8:33 AM, DCDuckfan said:

Just to be clear, I appreciate DZNC's perspective...I just see some things differently and figured I would opine. 

 

That said, this is a great article because it is backed up with supporting info but it also opens the door to contrary views and provides space for disagreement and discussion.  To me that is ideal versus just having everyone give a thumbs up in agreement. 

The disagreement and discussion are welcome, and you have a valid point in the level of Comp in the SEC.

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I don't think Nix is a great QB or will be a great QB, however there is a lot of cherry picking stats.  His completion percentage increased every year.  His average pass increased every year.  He had 3 interceptions last year.  He was sacked the fewest times in his career at 12 last season.  Granted, last season he did only play 10 games.

 

Comparing Brown and Nix last season.

Brown
ORE
               
 
CMP
ATT CMP% YDS AVG TD INT LNG SACK RTG
250 390 64.1 2,989 7.7 18 7 66 23 140.1
                   
                   
Nix
AUB
               
 
CMP
ATT CMP% YDS AVG TD INT LNG SACK RTG
197 323 61 2,294 7.1 11 3 71 12 130

 

 

It is hard comparing players/coaches to each other.  Trying to compare Bo Nix/Chad Morris with Tajh Boyd/Chad Morris is silly.  Auburn went 21-16 while Bo Nix is QB.  Clemson went 38-15 while Boyd was QB.  There are 100+ guys playing for a football team.

 

By that logic, Kobe Bryant sucked 2005-06 and he had Phil Jackson for those seasons, the same as when he won titles.  

 

I have no doubt I am going to be screaming at Bo for making mistakes and shaking my head at to figuring out what he was thinking.

 

I am definitely not thinking Bo will be our savior.  My preference would be to let Ty or Jay play after the UGA game.

 

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On 8/3/2022 at 8:33 AM, DCDuckfan said:

That said, this is a great article because it is backed up with supporting info but it also opens the door to contrary views and provides space for disagreement and discussion.  To me that is ideal versus just having everyone give a thumbs up in agreement. 

Nobody has attacked you; you are giving the impression that you are offended because so many disagreed with you? (Join the club!) That should not be a problem as we are all in a minority opinion at times, and mine about Cristobal was one for a couple of years, and I truly did get attacked on other sites. 

 

We do not allow anyone to go after another OBD member on a personal basis, and I do not believe I saw that or any violations of the rules.

 

And disagreement is what I want; I wish to see all opinions on all topics.  This wise community has changed my views tons of times with perspectives I never considered.  The end result is that we become better, more informed fans as a result.  This article and the posts are a perfect example of that.

 

And I appreciate your thoughts as always DC.

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Mr. FishDuck

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On 8/3/2022 at 8:41 AM, Tandaian said:

I don't think Nix is a great QB or will be a great QB, however there is a lot of cherry picking stats.  His completion percentage increased every year.  His average pass increased every year.  He had 3 interceptions last year.  He was sacked the fewest times in his career at 12 last season.  Granted, last season he did only play 10 games.

 

Comparing Brown and Nix last season.

Brown
ORE
               
 
CMP
ATT CMP% YDS AVG TD INT LNG SACK RTG
250 390 64.1 2,989 7.7 18 7 66 23 140.1
                   
                   
Nix
AUB
               
 
CMP
ATT CMP% YDS AVG TD INT LNG SACK RTG
197 323 61 2,294 7.1 11 3 71 12 130

 

 

It is hard comparing players/coaches to each other.  Trying to compare Bo Nix/Chad Morris with Tajh Boyd/Chad Morris is silly.  Auburn went 21-16 while Bo Nix is QB.  Clemson went 38-15 while Boyd was QB.  There are 100+ guys playing for a football team.

 

By that logic, Kobe Bryant sucked 2005-06 and he had Phil Jackson for those seasons, the same as when he won titles.  

 

I have no doubt I am going to be screaming at Bo for making mistakes and shaking my head at to figuring out what he was thinking.

 

I am definitely not thinking Bo will be our savior.  My preference would be to let Ty or Jay play after the UGA game.

 

FYI- AB last year regressed under Mario, he was over 9 yards a pass and a 154.5 passer rating his junior year at BC. 

 

But the comparison you posted of AB last year and Bo last year shows, AB had better stats. (PAC vrs SEC though.)

 

I think your confused with my reference to Chad Morris/Taj Boyd. I'm not comparing numbers; I'm saying Morris has chops when you look what he did with Boyd at Clemson. 

 

The point I was trying to make is Nix had one of the Top 10, maybe Top 5 QB Gurus in Morris and he didn't show much improvement

 

Nix has been from the low 120's to 130 passers rating his three years.

 

Now it falls to Dillingham to try to get Bo to make that jump. If Nix don't make the jump, I won't be blaming Dilly or Morris.

Edited by DazeNconfused
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On 8/3/2022 at 11:46 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Nobody has attacked you; you are giving the impression that you are offended because so many disagreed with you? (Join the club!) That should not be a problem as we are all in a minority opinion at times, and mine about Cristobal was one for a couple of years, and I truly did get attacked on other sites.  This was nothing...

I think we are in violent agreement here and my posts are being read in a tone that doesn't reflect the tone I'm intending to convey.  I don't feel like I was attacked and definitely was not offended by anything said and so I apologize if I gave that impression.

 

When I saw your statement "I told you DazeNconfused was going to bring you football, but not always what we want to read" I wanted to make sure that you and DZNC understood I wasn't attacking the article. I was actually trying to laud the article as a great example of something that provoked reader engagement. 

 

As an aside, I think what this article brought to the surface is that we, as a fan base haven't flushed out how we feel about Bo Nix transferring.  This article opened that door.

 

 

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Bo Nix can be argued either way.
 

This read is sobering but college football history is also replete with examples of guys that underperformed and subsequently turned it up and played better in later years. Let us hope Bo fits in that group. 
 

This years Duck QB competition will speak to many issues, the talent coaching and growth of several very talented physically gifted but different QBs.  
 

Whether the coaches can coach them and make the offense run with good play calling will determine some of the QBs fate. 
 

Dilly may have the tallest order on the team in remaking an offense and finding immediate long term stability at QB and one guy capable of starting and entire season. 
 

Lots of Hope lots of questions. 
 

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Im going to leave it up to DL,KD as Im sure that if Bo isnt up to the task other arrangements will be made. So much of performance is in the head as well as the physical.

If Bo has confidence Im sure he will do all right.

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On 8/3/2022 at 9:10 AM, DCDuckfan said:

As an aside, I think what this article brought to the surface is that we, as a fan base haven't flushed out how we feel about Bo Nix transferring.  This article opened that door.

If Bo can "flush out" to be as good as Herbs was his senior year, I think all us fans will be happy. That's adding two yards per pass average and 26 points on his passer rating. If he does that and still makes some of his trademark "silly' plays, we are all going to be able to live with it. 

 

I think if Bo's playing at the same level he has for his first three years the fan base will be calling to move onto Ty or Butters. I don't think fans are going to want to waste too much time on Bo not playing well. 

 

There are lots of fans who wanted Ty or Butters to get more game time last year, that group aren't going to support bad QB play by Bo for long.

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You know it's a noteworthy article when there are 45 replies in 7 hours!

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On 8/3/2022 at 6:52 AM, Haywarduck said:

Thanks Dazed, all we have now is a high floor on Butters, a high ceiling on Ty and the rug pulled out from underneath us on Nix! I thought we had a nice little wall to wall carpet with Nix, with everything covered!  Now I have to think he may not even be an area rug extending out from the bed I was sleeping so comfortably on as I dreamed of the season to come.

 

It actually sounds like he may just be a little runner carpet which may take us to the next room with the high floor, and or high ceiling. We definitely don't have the nice wool carpet that will last a long time, and make us all feel good like we were hoping.

 

The analysis you did was pretty impressive, once again. That type of writing is why it is always enjoyable to wake up and ponder what has been written by the Fishduck staff.

 

Sometimes that pondering wakes me up from some rosy dreams, which it is probably good. I need to realize the season I am pondering now may just be a fantasy best understood before we walk into it, expecting something which just isn't there. No carpet, not even some soft padding to help us at qb, just a cold hard floor, and we have no idea where it will take us.

 

 

Love me a good rug metaphor! 👏 👏 

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Great article! 

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In terms of comparing AB to Nix last season, I would love to see an analysis of their opponents defensive "prowess" to provide the full context.  

 

I suspect that, as many have stated, the SEC overall has better defenses in general, and more top-end individual defensive players than the Pac-12.  It would follow that special teams play is better too in the SEC which may have caused Nix to face worse starting field position than AB.

 

At the end of the day though, I will take Nix' 7 fewer INT's with similar pass attempts over AB's superior running abilities.  With our Oline and RB's, QB runs are less essential. 

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On 8/3/2022 at 9:28 AM, DuckPhan19 said:

Love me a good rug metaphor! 👏👏 

The rug, man.....it really tied the room together.

 

 

sb7pedg3sn491.jpg

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Most of ABs completions were to his top receiver, Travis Dye in the backfield. Most of Dye's yards were carrying tacklers an extra 4-5 yards after contact. Both of these factors greatly contributed to elevating both AB's passing numbers and Mario's bland predictable offense.

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