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Regarding Bo Nix: Beware ‘Bandwagon Buy-In’

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Nix has never been as good as Anthony Brown was even last year...why should we think he'll be the solution at QB?

 

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Bo Nix was a highly touted five-star recruit, a player that draws mixed emotions from fans. Will Oregon offensive coordinator...

 

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Rah Rah! 

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My biggest fear about the Ducks' season is that we'll waste a year finding out that Nix pretty much is who he showed he was at Auburn.  Are Butterfield or Thompson ready?  No idea.  But if we don't have a reliable QB1, this season is toast before it begins.

 

I'd rather have growing pains with one of the young guys and have a great QB for late in the season and next year, than spend much of the year watching Nix implode and then switching to one of the younger QBs when it's too late.  

 

Maybe Nix will start and be terrific.  I just fear otherwise given what he's shown in his career thus far.

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The UGA game will be telling. I’m glad that’s the one Oregon leads off with.

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Good article with some valid points but there were a couple things that stood out as I was reading it.

 

After his freshman year, Bo lost his OC and you claim that "Malzahn made a home-run hire in Chad Morris."  If Chad Morris was such a home run hire, he wouldn't have coached one year and then returned to coaching high school.  His next OC may be a legit good coach (not sure if he is but I'll give the benefit of the doubt), but it is noteworthy that by Bo's third season, he is on his third OC and learning his third new offense in is as many years. 

 

The second thing that stood out was in regards to Bo Nix statistically vs Anthony Brown.  Although it is true that AB had better stats than Bo, the differing level of competition the two QB's played against can't be overlooked.  I am pretty confident that if they swapped places, AB's stats would be worse.

 

 All that said, I'm still hoping that TT wins the job this fall but I also have to reconcile with reality based on what I witnessed during the spring game.

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Hoping this staff is savvy enough to know who puts this team in the best position to win games. If that is Bo and he is no better than AB, Ducks have issues not easy to fix during the course of a season.

 

I trust DL an KD have a pretty good idea of what they have in the QB room. I trust they can scheme and plan to the strengths of what is available.  It's  as much the coaching staffs responsibility as it is the players. Something the last staff seemed to struggle with. 

 

Bo hasn't even played a snap for Oregon. DL hasn't coached a single game. Seems a little dark to be insinuating he is a bust at this point.

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If Nix really is the leader in the clubhouse, and if you truly buy in to this take (I’m not suggesting you shouldn’t), then couldn’t you also surmise that Ty & Butters just really are not that good?

 

Perhaps my initial prediction of a four-loss regular season isn’t one to be scoffed at after all.     

 

 

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 I’ve watched a fair amount of Bo Nix film and it seemed to me the pocket around him collapsed pretty fast. He was running for his life most of the time.

 

 It was genius for DL to bring in Bo to face the Dogs rather than throwing our two young guns to the Wolves, I mean Dogs, for their first college start in a hostile environment. Bo has seen this many times so he is their best option out of the gate.

 

 If he doesn’t get the job done a loss to Georgia isn’t going to ruin the Ducks season. What a great way to start the new guy against Eastern Washington at home before a date with BYU.

 

 I may be reaching to high to think Bo will change but I have confidence that he can win in the pack. He did beat Alabama once and how many QBs are 500 against That group. A large portion of his losses are against highly ranked teams and Auburn has struggled with coaching changes his whole career so at least he has a familiar face in Dillingham.

 

 I will drink🍸the Kool-Aid 😉😉 on this one.

 

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In my (humble, uneducated) opinion, Bo Nix is Johnny Manziel 2.0...he's wild, erratic and a hell of a lot of fun to watch IF he has Mike Evans.  I believe we have our own Mike Evans in Donte Thornton, Chase Cota and Caleb Champman. These are 6'4"+ guys that can make clutch catches and win random jump balls when Nix just heaves something up for grabs. 

 

Granted, I'd rather not have our QB throwing jump balls while there's more than .05 seconds left on the clock...however, if that's what we're working with, then at least we have the receivers to win those battles and maybe, just maybe, having an offensive line that gives him time to make reads will preclude some of that.

 

I still believe Butters gives us our highest floor, and Thompson our highest ceiling...but Nix is our most experienced.  The way I feel this year is still the same way I did last year which is, get our QB of the future the experience he needs to be able to lead the team to greatness...which brings up my biggest gripe of all: this season should have been OUR season for greatness! We have a top tier O-line, what should be a scary good defense and here we are playing another transfer QB b/c Mari0 refused to give Thompson/Butters the experience they should have gotten last year.  

 

Even though he's gone, we're still reaping the benefits AND paying for the sins of the previous administration. At this point I'm ready to just right the ship and sail off into the sunset of whatever it is the future holds...

Edited by Wrathis
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On 8/3/2022 at 7:10 AM, Kurt Rambis said:

My biggest fear about the Ducks' season is that we'll waste a year finding out that Nix pretty much is who he showed he was at Auburn.  Are Butterfield or Thompson ready?  No idea.  But if we don't have a reliable QB1, this season is toast before it begins.

 

I'd rather have growing pains with one of the young guys and have a great QB for late in the season and next year, than spend much of the year watching Nix implode and then switching to one of the younger QBs when it's too late.  

 

Maybe Nix will start and be terrific.  I just fear otherwise given what he's shown in his career thus far.

I can certainly understand your concerns about Nix being named QB1, if in fact he does win the job.  To date he hasn’t lived up to his 5 star rating coming out of high school.  Although IMO, he has never been in a great situation for his game to flourish. 
 

He started as a true freshman, for a team that wasn’t very good at pass blocking.  Not the easiest of jobs.  
 

Then he had 3 different OCs over the next 3 years.  I’m sure that added to his difficulties in gaining a firm handle on things and growing as a QB.  
 

Making things even more difficult, while starting as a freshman and then changing coordinators, he was also going up against SEC defenses.  Also not the easiest of jobs.
 

Perhaps there is reason to be optimistic with Nix this season though.  He will have Dillingham as OC again, I think that’s a plus. He will be playing behind a very good O-line, definitely a nice change.  And while he hasn’t been spectacular in his first 3 seasons, he does have experience.  Maybe things are lining up in a promising way for Bo and he can live up to former expectations.  

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I'm cautiously optimistic, as usual I guess.

 

Not drinking the Kool-Aid just yet, but he probably gives us our best shot against Georgia in the opener.  After that it's up to the coaches as much as Bo to put him in a position to succeed and if he's not working out then they need to have the courage to bench him for Ty or Butters.

 

Often in football the key to QB success is a good defense and running game.  We should have both regardless of who winds up getting the start.

Edited by noDucknewby
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From the sound of it Nix hasn't had much stability around him for his college football career. 

 

A decent freshman start... Not great but decent. 

 

Sophomore year was a new OC. 

 

Junior year was a new HC and OC and a different offensive philosophy, one he wasn't recruited for. 

 

Yes... Other quarterbacks can deal with changes around them better than others. Herbert managed to have a good Oregon career dispite an uninspired offense (and three different offenses!) And three different head coaches. But I'd say Herbert is the exception not the rule and oddly enough I do feel that instability has helped his NFL career as he is very adaptable. 

 

However, I would say Nix chose Oregon because he knows the schei, or at least knew the basics. Had a relationship with Dillingham. And knew he could grow on his knowledge rather than have to learn everything from scratch. 

 

Not saying Nix is going to be great or even good this year, but I think this could be his best year of college ball. 

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Thanks Dazed, all we have now is a high floor on Butters, a high ceiling on Ty and the rug pulled out from underneath us on Nix! I thought we had a nice little wall to wall carpet with Nix, with everything covered!  Now I have to think he may not even be an area rug extending out from the bed I was sleeping so comfortably on as I dreamed of the season to come.

 

It actually sounds like he may just be a little runner carpet which may take us to the next room with the high floor, and or high ceiling. We definitely don't have the nice wool carpet that will last a long time, and make us all feel good like we were hoping.

 

The analysis you did was pretty impressive, once again. That type of writing is why it is always enjoyable to wake up and ponder what has been written by the Fishduck staff.

 

Sometimes that pondering wakes me up from some rosy dreams, which it is probably good. I need to realize the season I am pondering now may just be a fantasy best understood before we walk into it, expecting something which just isn't there. No carpet, not even some soft padding to help us at qb, just a cold hard floor, and we have no idea where it will take us.

 

 

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I think Bo is going to have a big year. He looked good in the spring game and is highly motivated to make this a great year before hopefully heading off to the NFL. I remember reading the George Leonard book on mastery many years ago. His graph showed the normal progression of improvement heading to mastery.

 

This is going to be the year that Bo's positive attitude, hard work, and athletic abilities contribute to him taking a jump on the mastery chart. The talented OL and WRs will also help him tremendously.

 

He is going to be one of the big stories of the year as he finally reaches the level many predicted for him. Plus, it is going to be fun to watch!

 

The Master

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DAZENCONFUSED, thanks for the article. As i read and then reread the article, I found myself waffling back and forth about Bo.

 

At times my cup was half full with optimism about Bo and his future with OBD.. Then my cup was half empty filled with doubts about Bo and that same OBD future.

 

The Auburn Tigers the last 3 years are 21-16 on the field. The best year being Bo's 2019 freshmen year working with KD. From that point on Auburn has been a program under duress. Multiple HC and OC changes in that SEC division is not a healthy sign. I am not certain the QB's you mentioned as comparison would have done any better against those monsters on that schedule. 

 

Lets face the fact that those 3 Auburn squads were not that good. What was JH's record his first 2 seasons?. It doesnt matter because those Duck teams were not that good. JH played above their level and moved the Ducks forward. As the talent level improved, JH led that team to 12-2 with a Rose Bowl won.

 

OBD out recruited the rest of the PAC. Auburn has not and will not out recruit Bama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, the pro team that is TA&M and Ole Miss. Even though both schools are playing football doesnt mean we are comparing apples to oranges.....

 

Oregon is the Alabama, Georgia or LSU of the PAC10. (the 2 traitors are lost to me). If Bo starts in the Georgia game he will be behind his best O line ever. The field will be scattered with talent at all the skill positions.

 

Bo simply has to use his game experience, minimize mistakes and execute. For the first time he has a full compliment of talent around him. He will not be facing defenses with multiple first and second round players.

 

Lets just hope the defense creates alot of turnovers that give Bo and the O many shory fields.

 

GO DUCKS.........

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On 8/3/2022 at 5:20 AM, DCDuckfan said:

If Chad Morris was such a home run hire, he wouldn't have coached one year and then returned to coaching high school. 

Perhaps you missed the part in the article where DZC explained how it was Chad Morris who visited Oregon and installed the Oregon Spread at Clemson and began their Natty runs.

Mr. FishDuck

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On 8/3/2022 at 5:20 AM, DCDuckfan said:

Good article with some valid points but there were a couple things that stood out as I was reading it.

 

After his freshman year, Bo lost his OC and you claim that "Malzahn made a home-run hire in Chad Morris."  If Chad Morris was such a home run hire, he wouldn't have coached one year and then returned to coaching high school.  His next OC may be a legit good coach (not sure if he is but I'll give the benefit of the doubt), but it is noteworthy that by Bo's third season, he is on his third OC and learning his third new offense in is as many years. 

 

The second thing that stood out was in regards to Bo Nix statistically vs Anthony Brown.  Although it is true that AB had better stats than Bo, the differing level of competition the two QB's played against can't be overlooked.  I am pretty confident that if they swapped places, AB's stats would be worse.

 

 

Chad Morris his second OC was a home run hire. He had Taj Boyd at Clemson who threw for over 10,000 yards and over 100 TD;s.

Morris also recruited Deshawn Watson and was there though his freshman year,

 

The fact is Morris ran pretty much the same scheme as Malzahn and Dillingham did at Auburn, so it wasn't a big change for Nix. What is telling is that Nix didn't improve in his year under Morris. How come Taj Boyd was great under Morris and Nix didn't improve?

 

Last the ACC to SEC comparison between AB and Bo don't explain why. Bo was a worse QB in the SEC than Kellen Mond, Felipe Franks, Kyle Trask, Matt Corral, Stenson Bennet, Hendon Hooker the last two years?

 

Bo Nix was bottom half of the SEC for QB's. 

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The difference between Nix and Brown......several things....... but Nix can throw it long accurately.......which should make a world of difference. 

 

Changing schemes three times and having a lousy line in front of you, particularly for a player that prefers to throw over run........I suspect we are going to see a player that reflects his rating from HS. 

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My friends, I told you DazeNconfused was going to bring you football, but not always what we want to read, but what we need to read.  I did not like reading the facts at all, but I am grateful to have the information, and thus have more realistic expectations going into the season.  This is an outstanding article, as the research and presentation has not been published anywhere like this. 

 

DZNC does critical analysis, and I am thankful for it.  

 

I also believe this is going to tell us a ton about how Dillingham is as a QB coach; the potential is there--can Dilly bring it to the surface?

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On 8/3/2022 at 7:30 AM, fred flintstone said:

The difference between Nix and Brown......several things....... but Nix can throw it long accurately.......which should make a world of difference. 

 

Changing schemes three times and having a lousy line in front of you, particularly for a player that prefers to throw over run........I suspect we are going to see a player that reflects his rating from HS. 

Nix didn't get his scheme changed three times.

 

HC Malzhan was a long time OC and QB coach and the offense Bo's first year under Dilly wasn't much of a change when Morris came in. 

All, three coaches are part of the same coaching tree of Todd Graham, they are all friends, the scheme is pretty much the same.

 

So, Nix didn't get a real system change until his third year with Bobo as his OC.

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In Mario's plodding offense, Herbert was pretty much just meh most of the time. Seemed like he always threw for a couple TDs with 250 yards but always seemed like it should be more like four TDs and 350 yards. Under Chip, Dixon looked like a sure fire Heisman candidate and guys like Thomas and Masoli looked like future pros.

 

It seems like the new staff are bringing back the pedal to the metal offense. I would assume that with two five stars and a high four star QBs in the room, one of them should get the Maserati around the track.

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The article presents facts and contains comparative analysis leading to presumptive conclusions. Yes, the history of Bo Nix’s career has been spotty.

 

I was watching as Bo Nix debuted against the Ducks at AT&T Stadium in 2019. Some observations were as follows. Nix is a warrior willing to put the team on his shoulders to win the battle. He is a dual threat able to throw and run. Nix has a strong core and also has powerful legs. Nix was the hero of the game not only for the final touchdown pass, but for his competitive spirit, yards after contact, football savvy, team leadership and instincts.

 

Nix will have the best support of his career around him. The O-line has been anointed as the PAC12’s best. The wide-outs, slot receivers, Tight ends, and running backs are talented, deep, and experienced.


Nix is not making headlines in 2023 NFL Draft assessments. To change the narrative, Bo Nix must turn in some of the highest QB statistics this season. He has the scheme, teammates and coaches to do it. Will he? He has a motive.
 

Will one of the other QB’s, Thompson or Butterfield,  win the job? That too is possible making Quarterback one of the key storylines to watch as the fall camp and the new season commence.

 

 

 

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On 8/3/2022 at 6:52 AM, Haywarduck said:

Thanks Dazed, all we have now is a high floor on Butters, a high ceiling on Ty and the rug pulled out from underneath us on Nix! I thought we had a nice little wall to wall carpet with Nix, with everything covered!  

I have more articles coming that dig into the Ducks offense and defense, that will give more perspective. 

 

But to your point... Bo can be successful this year! He had the best Oline ever in front of him, Cardwell is a feature back, Thornton and Fraklin are future NFL picks! Bo needs to embrace being a ball distributor to his guys and let them make plays. He needs to calm himself down and know he can throw the ball away and come back next snap and bust a play. Bo can still scramble and extend plays but if there isn't a guy open throw the ball away.

 

Bo can settle down, manage the game and feed the rock to his guys while avoiding the Dumb plays he has been known to make. Nix don't have to play in style where he is trying to do it all. 

 

If Bo embraces that he may have a great year!

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A while back, I went to a large Auburn site and asked them for their honest thoughts about Bo Nix. This is the first of many posts showing their comments...


"Needed a better QB coach at AU. Great athleticism. Really good runner. Good speed. Decision making might be suspect. Pretty good arm. Left the pocket too quick, imo. Don't know the reason for that, but it happened. I lay the blame on lack of quality QB coaching."

 

"On a team of athletes (like Oregon), he'll be one of your best."

 

"Bo nix is great for 3 or 4 plays. Then he's going to make a stupid play that makes you go "Why would he do that?". Just hope the 3-4 good plays are enough to overcome running backwards 20 yards before being sacked."

 

"57 TDs in 3 years and 16ints plus 4 fumbles. I’d say the good plays outweighed the “stupid” ones but everyone has their own opinion."

 

"Most of his picks were just bad decisions, don’t recall many being off of deflections but plenty were rushed. He should continue to be one of the better rushing QBs but haven’t seen him since the injury."

 

Bo Nix shows Auburn 'scary' improvement in season opener

 

"Nix is one of those quarterbacks who is horrible under pressure, but when given some time by his offensive line he will produce as soon as he learns to calm down and go through his progressions."

 

"My impression of Nix at Auburn is that he was able to get by in high school by sheer athleticism and he was successful in forcing things to happen. He never learned at the college level that athleticism only goes so far (because you are surrounded by superior athletes) and that forcing things to happen at that level often has disastrous consequences. He won some games that way in spectacular heroic fashion, but more often than not he created disasters forcing plays. He's got tools and he's got heart. If they can teach him teamwork and break him of trying to do it all himself he'll be a standout."

 

"For one year in a new environment, especially with a program like Oregon—-a great opportunity. At AU he was High risk and high reward. Lots of heart but not necessarily a leader. His maverick side will win you games you don’t expect and lose you possessions you didn’t see coming.
 

Had great moments at AU based on his athleticism. His overall body of work will forever be overshadowed by the perceived descent of his head coach. All QBs are under a microscope- Bo Nix was more so than most. In a new environment without the legacy pressure and all that he could lock in and really thrive."

 

"Bo Nix was headed to State Farm Insurance once his days on the Plains were over. He made the best decision for himself, and moving to Oregon is an opportunity to get new perspective and perhaps put himself in position to be viewed as an NFL QB. Staying at Auburn, that wasn't going to happen. Oregon could possibly play themselves into the playoffs if Bo plays at his best. Oregon will give Georgia a run early but don't have the athleticism to play 4 qtrs against the SEC's finest.

 

From there the media will fall in love with Oregon and their schedule plays out well to win 9 in a row or so. Bo will throw for 400 against E. Washington and some west coast bloggers will be drooling all over themselves to promote the former SEC kid as a Heisman front runner. The biggest questions are these. 1.) Will Bo win the locker room, and will he keep it through wins and losses or will he begin to blame those around him? (Remember this move out west was all about Bo). 2.) Will Bo, now married, alienate himself from the other leaders on the team? 3.) More of a statement than a question, I've always felt that is if Bo Nix's name was Johnny Morris, he would have been at NC State. Best of luck."

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The 2 years prior to Morris' arrival, Clemson went a combined 15–12, including a record of 6–7 in 2010. Morris introduced a hurry-up, spread offense that helped Clemson to a 42–11 mark over the next four seasons. Wikipedia

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