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FishDuck Article

Regarding Bo Nix: Beware ‘Bandwagon Buy-In’

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I too really enjoyed DNC's perspective on this. Great points and counterpoints in the subsequent posts. My two bits:

In comparing Nix to AB, I don't think statistics tell the whole story. Both QBs have had 'wow' moments and 'OMG, why did he do that?' moments. Re-watched the Stanford game (yes, I saved it, masochist that I am) and AB frequently underthrew, overthrew, threw behind and to the wrong dude (the DB).

 

It looked like someone had replaced the QB we saw at tOSU (re-watched that one too for comparison) with an out of sync hologram. Granted a lot of players contributed to that debacle, and Moorhead was in an ICU with half his colon in a bag, but in that 1st half AB was abysmal. MC trying to be a HC and OC was just as bad, but that's a whole different topic.

 

In 2022 Nix will face Georgia, but not Alabama, TA$M, Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky (all ESPN top 25 teams). The only ESPN top 25 opponents in the Pac12/10 are Utah and U$C. Currently neither the PAC or ACC is the SEC in terms of talent. Nix has played against more talent and tougher teams than AB did. In 2022 Oregon has a better O-line and arguably better offensive skill players than Auburn did the last two years.

 

And Nix looked pretty darn good in that spring game. I'm going to fall on the glass half full side of this discussion, unless the Georgia game is a disaster and blows my optimism all to hell.

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On 8/3/2022 at 5:30 AM, Jester said:

Perhaps my initial prediction of a four-loss regular season isn’t one to be scoffed at after all.     

 

 

Agree.  The expectations right now for this team seem to be completely out of touch with reality.  Maybe this article will help bring some of those expectations back down to earth a little.

 

I know I have said this before, but Oregon lost their leading passer, leading receiver, and leading rusher on offense.  They also lost the leader in sacks and interceptions on defense.  Combine that with a completely new coaching staff and this team is probably going to take some lumps this year.  Even with the talent we have on the roster right now, that is a HUGE amount of production to replace in a completely new system.   

 

Bo may not be "the guy" like this article claims, but where does that leave Ty and Butters after the spring game?  IIRC, Lanning's top priority in evaluating QBs is points per possession and Nix was WAY out in front of the other QBs in the spring game.    

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Great article - so much fun.

 

I am not convinced Bo is the savior but my feeling from watching him at auburn a number of times each year is that he can play and can win in the right situation.  A couple of thoughts

 

He was playing against better teams lots of weeks - that won’t be the case this year.

 

MC screwed up a lot of things with Oregons offense, but he didn’t make AB miss wide open guys or force bad throws.  As a Ute, I would be fine to play AB again

 

The other two QB’s are so unproven, I would save them until (if) Bo sinks and then try to get a big lift giving one of them a shot.  

 

 

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On 8/3/2022 at 12:02 PM, DazeNconfused said:

Here is a list of the SEC QB's the last two years who were better than Nix. Stenson Bennet, Kyle Trask, Felipe Franks, Kellen Mond, Hendon Hooker, Matt Coral and then Mac Jones and Bryce Young. 

 

How come all those other SEC QB's were better than Nix against that list of top 10 defenses and DB's who are now in the NFL?

 

Doesn't it seem to be a concern Nix was worse than all those SEC QB's?

 

That said it doesn't rule out the fact Nix could be good this year, but he has to prove it.

Again, you have to factor in that bo nix was running for his life most games. STATS don't tell the entire story.  those other lines were much better than NIX's.  Receivers much better.  Put Mariota on those teams NIX played for, and he would not have won a Heisman.  Stats don't mean squat. And you are comparing SEC QB to each other.  I'm saying the defenders in the SEC are light years ahead of the PAC's. 

 

It will be like slow motion for Bo now.  Add a good offensive line and receivers like we have now, and the ingredients are there for a great season.  I'm far more worried about the defensive line and running backs than I am about BO. 

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I would agree Mario and Moorhead didn't make AB miss all those throws; but, it isn't really a stretch to suggest AB regressed significantly throwing the ball during his time at Oregon.

 

There really is tape from his time at BC that showed not only the ability to make all the necessary throws - but actually some consistency delivering down field play action bombs for the Eagles. Along with Jamie Newman, AB was a transfer QB target for the Duck staff 

 

[and just for the sake of getting the history down right, I don't think Bellotti actually exactly yanked AJ Feeley, but rather he hurt his throwing elbow around game five or six and tried to play through it, but developed elbow bursitis which left his throwing hand numb. It sort of just became clear he was having trouble handling/throwing the ball]

 

 

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On 8/3/2022 at 3:50 PM, Pac10again said:

Again, you have to factor in that bo nix was running for his life most games. STATS don't tell the entire story.  those other lines were much better than NIX's.  Receivers much better.  Put Mariota on those teams NIX played for, and he would not have won a Heisman.  Stats don't mean squat. And you are comparing SEC QB to each other.  I'm saying the defenders in the SEC are light years ahead of the PAC's. 

 

It will be like slow motion for Bo now.  Add a good offensive line and receivers like we have now, and the ingredients are there for a great season.  I'm far more worried about the defensive line and running backs than I am about BO. 

Lol. Now that is a post with conviction. I like it! 

 

So, we can put you down in the Bo Nix is going to kill it camp?

 

Actually, you have me a bit more worried now that we've established the SEC defenses are light years ahead of the Pac! 

 

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On 8/3/2022 at 1:37 PM, GeotechDuck said:

Agree.  The expectations right now for this team seem to be completely out of touch with reality.  Maybe this article will help bring some of those expectations back down to earth a little.

 

I know I have said this before, but Oregon lost their leading passer, leading receiver, and leading rusher on offense.  They also lost the leader in sacks and interceptions on defense.  Combine that with a completely new coaching staff and this team is probably going to take some lumps this year.  Even with the talent we have on the roster right now, that is a HUGE amount of production to replace in a completely new system.   

 

Bo may not be "the guy" like this article claims, but where does that leave Ty and Butters after the spring game?  IIRC, Lanning's top priority in evaluating QBs is points per possession and Nix was WAY out in front of the other QBs in the spring game.    

This is a great post that hits on so many issues!

My Saturday article is addresses some of the questions you raised.

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He had only 3 picks last yr for Auburn. That's not a lot going against those defenses.

 

As for his pick against us in the spring how much practice had he had with totally new players. I believe he also wanted to make something happen. He also had the pressure of showing us fans how good he is.

 

I believe all factors have to be considered when making a observation.

 

I'm not saying he's the greatest thing since sliced bread but we haven't even had 1 practice of fall camp. Let's let the process happen then see where we are.

 

 

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On 8/3/2022 at 11:50 AM, DazeNconfused said:

I liked how Butters showed he could get through the progressions to his check down to the running back. That means Butters can calmly run the offense and take what the defense gives him, take the positive play. Some plays just don't go into the coverage the defense ran that play.

 

Butters seems to have the confidence to take the check down and come get the defense on the next play.

Totally agree. He looked confident, calm, and in control . . . even if he threw a pick. He looks very natural and comfortable throwing the football.

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Seems like Brown's numbers were inflated because he was relegated to a lot of dinks and dunks due to his horrid accuracy past 10 yards.

 

I love his heart, guts, and attitude. He's one heck of a classy man. 

 

But I'm past ready for someone new.

 

 

Screenshot_20220803-211331_Fire TV.png

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On 8/3/2022 at 9:19 PM, nw777b said:

Seems like Brown's numbers were inflated because he was relegated to a lot of dinks and dunks due to his horrid accuracy past 10 yards.

 

I love his heart, guts, and attitude. He's one heck of a classy man. 

 

But I'm past ready for someone new.

 

 

Screenshot_20220803-211331_Fire TV.png

I don't know what gave him the "yips" and caused him to miss so many throws at times. He played pretty good at the OSU game and that was like his peak. He was better with the deep balls at BC, much better. Then in the Alamo bowl in the second half he dropped some dimes on the long balls, so it doesn't really add up.

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I personally would rather have brought one of our young QBs up to be the starter.  They have patiently been waiting.  I do blame the last regime on not being equip to handle and develop young QBs.

 

So Bo Nix stats for 3 seasons at Auburn overall:

628 CMP out of 1,057 ATT:  CMP% AVG 59.5%

Total YDS:  7,251, AVG 6.9

Total TDs:  39

Total INT:  16

 

He has a gunslinger mentality, but is a dual threat QB that can make things happen with his legs and arm.  Important in a KD offense, especially if he had to improvise to make things happen out of a broken play, etc. Marcus was very good with this to make a play successful.

 

Maybe with good protection from our experience front line will give him more time to be more calculated in his passing game.

 

Sorry if this might have been already posted.  I thought this Bio profile and scouting report was helpful.  Talks about his strengths and weaknesses:

 

Bo-Nix-QB-Auburn.png
WWW.NFLDRAFTBUZZ.COM

NFL Draft 2023 Scouting report for Auburn Quarterback Bo Nix , Forty yard times, Twitter feeds and Combine Workouts

 

 

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On 8/4/2022 at 11:47 AM, NJDuck said:

I personally would rather have brought one of our young QBs up to be the starter.  They have patiently been waiting.  I do blame the last regime on not being equip to handle and develop young QBs.

 

So Bo Nix stats for 3 seasons at Auburn overall:

628 CMP out of 1,057 ATT:  CMP% AVG 59.5%

Total YDS:  7,251, AVG 6.9

Total TDs:  39

Total INT:  16

 

He has a gunslinger mentality, but is a dual threat QB that can make things happen with his legs and arm.  Important in a KD offense, especially if he had to improvise to make things happen out of a broken play, etc. Marcus was very good with this to make a play successful.

 

Maybe with good protection from our experience front line will give him more time to be more calculated in his passing game.

 

Sorry if this might have been already posted.  I thought this Bio profile and scouting report was helpful.  Talks about his strengths and weaknesses:

 

Bo-Nix-QB-Auburn.png
WWW.NFLDRAFTBUZZ.COM

NFL Draft 2023 Scouting report for Auburn Quarterback Bo Nix , Forty yard times, Twitter feeds and Combine Workouts

 

 

Thanks this analysis is very helpful and not as gloomy as the original post here.

 

It is easy to concentrate on the negatives of a player, especially someone like Bo.

 

Playing at Auburn is not easy, the expectations are way high compared to the strength of the program. Especially considering they are always playing in the shadow of their next door neighbor in Tuscaloosa.

 

Bo's numbers are no spectacular, but they are solid. When you consider that his offensive line was often outplayed by the other teams defensive line his number aren't bad at all. 

 

Also, he was actually having his best year before injury last year. 

 

As for comparisons to AB. I will look to the eye test. I've seen Bo play several times for Auburn often against very good competition (Alabama 3 times). 

 

I've never seen Bo look as bad as AB did against Stanford or both games vs. Utah. Never.

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- No offense is successful if the running game sucks and OL is awful. They were flat out terrible against teams like Georgia, Bama etc. where the kid was pressured on literally almost 50% of his passes.

- Not many QB's are great running for their life, throwing off platform in that offense against man. 

 

- Promoting Chad Morris as some sort of savant that could only fail if his QB stunk isn't accurate at all. He failed at Arkansas, wasn't the OC at Clemson when they won the natty and currently an analyst at USF so not exactly seen as OC savant by his peers. No, using that as the justifiable component isn't really determinative of how Bo will fair. 

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There are pretty serious differences between a college QB and an MLB pitcher.

 

What I mean by that is that a college QBs stats are comingled with the stats of every other player on the field.

 

Stats and baseball go hand in hand like peanut butter and chocolate but it's just not true for QBs. 

 

The reason is that each pitch in baseball is a duel between the pitcher and the batter.  There are also enough games played to get enough of a sample size to draw relevant conclusions from the resulting statistics.

 

Football is a completely different game especially for the QB as the outcome of each pass depends heavily on most of the other players on the field.  There might be a few players in that moment that have no chance to impact the outcome of the pass but most of the players can.

 

Especially the offensive line and when I watch Auburn film with Bo I see pretty terrible O-line play.  That put Auburn in the position to throw in a hurry alot.  I also don't see a coaching staff that makes the schematic adjustments needed for poor play at scrimmage.

 

I don't know how Bo will do this year to be honest but I don't think playing for KD was the reason he transferred to Oregon.  I think KD called Bo and said the plan was to install his offense with Oregon's playmakers BEHIND Oregon's current O-line.

 

The first thing Bo did when he got to Oregon was take the O-line out to dinner.  What do you think they talked about?  I'm just guessing here but I would bet a Beer that he told them they were the reason he transferred to Oregon.  He can't say that in public of course as it would be deeply disrespectful to the Auburn O-line.  

 

So in closing I don't buy the stats argument and looking at film I see a gunslinger who has what it takes to dish the ball to playmakers that are really excited to make magic happen.  We will know a lot more after Georgia.

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Look guys it's an opinion piece. My opinion is that Bo Nix hasn't been very good. If that bothers you, then I'm sorry. 

 

But I'm hoping Nix has a great year, I'm not looking to be proven right! Go Ducks!

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To WickedGreen, Duck Fan 76 and the forum:

 

I want disagreement, as the discussion helps us all become better fans. But what I see above are two posts that could have transmitted the same disagreement without a "put-down" tone within it.  We do not allow that here.

 

Again--disagreement is great, but disparaging a writer or a fellow forum member in the process is not allowed.  On this forum you state your opinion, your facts or your line of reasoning; that is it.  We do not get snarky, sarcastic, or mock a writer or a fellow member of the OBD forum.

 

Do not respond to this post.  You will be contacted by email and you can discuss it with me there.  It was important that the rest of the site know that those kind of posts are not cool here.

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I think bringing in Nix gives the new coaching staff a solid floor at QB with only unproven backups on the roster. I see that as a solid move. Hopefully, one of the three QBs lives up to the five star billing by seasons end.
 

Sometimes honest reporting/ opinion can be a Debbie Downer but without it well…  just look at the fuskie perpetual delusion and you can see where that can lead. 
 

Way to keep it real Daze. Keep bringing the honest perspective.

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On 8/4/2022 at 5:27 PM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

Sometimes honest reporting/ opinion can be a Debbie Downer

I want Critical Analysis here, where we are not suck-ups/cheerleaders, nor are we Eeyore at every turn.  We have sloshed a lot of candy in the direction of the football team this summer and both DZC and I will be doing more.

 

Often times writers will create a piece that I flinch at because I disagree, but I want those articles.  They make us better, more informed fans, and you won't see them at other sites.

 

We haven't been Eeyore this summer at FishDuck...not with only one article.

Eeyore.jpg

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On 8/4/2022 at 5:27 PM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

I think bringing in Nix gives the new coaching staff a solid floor at QB with only unproven backups on the roster. I see that as a solid move. Hopefully, one of the three QBs lives up to the five star billing by seasons end.
 

Sometimes honest reporting/ opinion can be a Debbie Downer but without it well…  just look at the fuskie perpetual delusion and you can see where that can lead. 
 

Way to keep it real Daze. Keep bringing the honest perspective.

Thanks, TKK! 

 

I think Nix with all his game experience HAS to be the game one starter. We got to give Nix a shot being back in Dillys system to see how he does having Cardwell as a feature back, our strong Oline, WR talent. 

 

It could be that Bo takes his game to a higher level and I will be the first to give him credit. If he struggles, then I'm sure we will have that discussion.

 

 

Edited by DazeNconfused
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It's always fun to work with a guy who writes such interesting articles. Keep up the good work, Daze!

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