David Marsh

Cincinnati was a two year campaign to make it to the playoff and on large part can thank that bizarre COVID year because they got a TON more viewership that year due to the later starts of the B1G and PAC. Then they retained their roster for 2021 in almost it's entirety due to the bonus year of eligibility. Even then Cincinnati only made the playoff because Oregon stumbled down the stretch along with other contenders. 2 losses is disqualification from the playoff.

I think this would have delayed the blow of the PAC and big-12, not prevented it. Access to the playoff isn't the driving force here it's the money. Rutgers currently makes more media rights money than USC and UCLA. Neither LA school has sniffed at the playoff. They joined the B1G for the money, not access to the playoff.

I'm not convinced. And here's why... ND opted to be a partial member of the ACC for football and though they have been happy with that arrangement at this time they still felt the need to be partial members of aajor conference. ND has some prestige but not the same amount they used to and I do believe they joined the ACC to make scheduling easier as that is something that would be come more and more difficult. Additionally, I don't see them being able to maintain their current status of independent with the difficulties that are only going to get harder of being independent or semi independent. That other major independent player, though not as big, BYU has opted to join a conference. ND has had a path to the playoff because of their prestige, something BYU never had. The playoff is going to expand and it will favor conferences over independents. ND can dictate terms, atleast more so than when playoff expansion hits. I think there are those at ND who favor the tradition of independence, just like how we favor the tradition of the PAC, but others know which way the win is blowing and ND will need to join a conference as a full member and if they don't they will be left out in the cold. I would also like to mention that Oregon has more playoff wins than ND.

UNC feels weird to me ... I know big time basketball school and rising star in football but it feels like an odd choice and there could be better ones. Maybe someone could answer it for me... Why UNC over Clemson? Or Washington? Well Washington isn't great in football or basketball so they are nothing more than a media market.

And I'm going to say this again... Put a big yellow donate button on the front page. Again thank you Charles.

Crazed Duck fan... Now let me go read the article. Thank you Charles for all you do. Especially letting this crazed Duck fan write.

Oregon's greatest weakness is that we don't belong to a single easy to target media market. We are national and EVERYWHERE! Which has a different sort of value.

Super conferences are and will be bad for the majority of programs that have ambitions to compete for national championships. With five or even six conferences the opportunity to play to NY6 games was reasonable. Win your conference and you're in. Even lower tier teams could have magical years where they could make a NY6 game. But let's get real here... The bigger the conference the more big teams you have to go through and beat to make the big games. Will USC really be able to take down Ohio State regularly enough to be better off than within the PAC? I'm not sure Oregon would be to be honest... But with the way things are trending if you're not in a super conference you're not making the money to even try. That's the sad truth of it all.

Hopefully Oregon can get out before the rest of the PAC explodes.

ND is going to have a decision before a conference merger will likely be agreed upon. From the sound of all the info I've seen is that ND will probably have an answer this week. ND knows there is too much riding on their decision and they know they need to make up their mind relatively quickly.

Independent is not an option. I know Oregon has a large fan base and it eould be possible to do... But the quality of games from year to year would vary. Oregon would have to schedule every single game independently... It's already difficult to schedule good games and those games are scheduled years and years in advance. If Oregon goes independent tomorrow they will be scheduling no name opponents because that is all they'll be able to schedule. That won't draw eyeballs and it would hurt. If Oregon wanted to go independent they needed to do some twenty years ago to have a good schedule next year. Notre Dame has been independent for so long that they are able to schedule good teams but even they have needed to be partial football members of the ACC to ensure a good schedule. BYU has given up their independence for the big-12. Their schedule has been up and down over the years but I don't think BYU is making any new years six games by being independent... At least not on any regular basis which is what they'd want. It's those NY6 big money games that are hard to make if you're independent. A lot of those games have guaranteed spots for conference champions or runners up (if playoff is involved). So no to Oregon going it alone.

By the sound of some of the stuff I've read at various sources it does sound like Knight is involved with Oregon right now. I also trust Mullens here. I think he has a better idea of what is going on than any of us know.

Because Vegas knows there are enough dillusional USC fans that would take that bet believing they have already arrived with Riley. Vegas is good at separating people from their money.

I would rather have a meter with the B1G with at least the Pac-8 being involved. I don't have much love or care for the Arizona schools, Utah and Colorado in truth. But the idea of a whole lot more travel is not appealing. I suppose grabbing a chunk of the big-12 is more appealing. The question is can Oregon, Washington, Oklahoma State, and... I don't know Texas Tech or Kansas State... Carry the prestige of a power conference? Maybe

And if the goal is for USC is to push Oregon out of their backyard I don't know why they'd want to invite Oregon in just to lose to the green and yellow terror from the north.

USC will rue the day! Though this all could backfire on them royally. What is USC continues to be bad??? And their recruiting pitch is... Come to USC and be in the B1G but in the sun! But Ohio State will counter that and say... Come to Ohio State and be on a good team.

I do think that George thought he had more time. Larry Scott left him a huge mess and he has only been on the job a year. I don't blame him for not wanting to try and absorb Big-12 schools a year ago because that would be a huge (and incredibly reactive and not in a good way) action that could have made things better or quite possibly worse when he didn't have a full understanding of what was going on within the conference he just took over. The Pac-12 media deals are up in a year or two and he has begun negotiations by the sound of it. Things were looking up with USC maybe getting their act together and some of the more minor powers were on the rise. I do feel like basement dwellers Oregon State, Arizona, and Cal are all bowl game contenders this year. I think he had more time to get things righted after such a huge mess. Also by the sound of everything I have read, the Athletic Directors and Presidents do actually LIKE him and have believed in his vision. This feels like USC and UCLA saw an opportunity to for money, UCLA is underwater athletically, and they took it. Blame them or not, its what they did. USC and UCLA stabbed the conference in the back with this move. I may sound like a bit of a Pac-12 homer but I do think given the time he needed Kliavkoff would have gotten the PAC back on track, especially with Oregon and USC on the upswing. I think Oregon is a playoff contender this year, USC is a maybe I'm not drinking the koolaid USC pundits are selling though I do think they will be better. In two years i think the Pac-12 is claiming a playoff spot regularly, especially in 2025 with Oklahoma and Texas moving to the SEC the Big-12 isn't going to be a whole lot messier.

If UCLA is forced to stay in the PAC then the conference could be on life support as the other west coast public schools will probably find themselves in a similar situation. What I could see happening is a deal being made to send the pac-8 at least to join a mega conference. The one thing that hasn't been brought up but is still in play but there are some lack luster schools and teams within the B1G and even the SEC. The PAC and ACC doesn't have a monopoly on bad teams and teams that don't generate revenue.

Stanford and the Farm are the antithesis if B1G with their huge stadiums that are always packed with a 100k people and are loud. You could study or write a paper in Stanford's stadium during a game. Autzen may not be as large as B1G stadiums but it is certainly loud enough. Stanford will be involved if ND is involved but I don't think they carry enough weight on their own to warrent an addition over two west coast schools that will be revenue generators.

I'm a little confused why they need to wait on ND to be honest. If you look at the programs that bring in the most revenue ND is one of the top programs but Oregon and Washington are pretty high in that list over all. The combo of Oregon and Washington would outweigh ND. Beyond that I read there are some fears that Oregon and Washington might not expand the overall revenue enough for everyone but might shrink it slightly for everyone. That could be possible but I think Oregon and Washington would more than pay for themselves. I think right now it's a tactic being used by the B1G to slow down and evaluate their choices before just diving in. ND is a big fish and beyond that ND is unlikely to make a decision too quickly. Everyone is scrambling right now. Also if Oregon and Washington both leave the PAC then there is no hope for the PAC and the PAC is super dead. Which then leads to other questions like... What about Cal, Oregon State and Washington State and Stanford? They aren't the big ticket programs but could preserving the pac-8 be worth it in an already massive super conference? I don't have answers when it comes to that just throwing out thoughts.

In the short run, basically the 2023 recruiting class, it's not a problem. No one knows anything or how anything will shake out right now. As we have seen being in a weak conference isn't a barrier to making it to the playoff. Cincinnati made it last year, sure they were demolished when they played Bama but that's another story. Clemson has made it and won national championships and the ACC has been worse in the whole in terms of football than the PAC. Even in a diminished conference Oregon could make it to the playoff. There are only a couple of criteria. 1. Need to have a few decent out of conference games... Something that Oregon is already doing. See Ohio State and Georgia. 2. And this is the most important one... Go undefeated. Pretty much the only consistent way to make the playoff is to go undefeated.

Stanford does get them enough by themselves. Oregon and even Washington are worth far more money.

The B1G didn't really say no thanks but more like... Wait a minute and we'll see. Adding Oregon and Washington may be their desired outcome but until Notre Dame makes their decision the B1G doesn't want to make too many moves. If Notre Dame says yes I think they add Oregon and Washington right away and probably pick Stanford. As Stanford and Notre Dame play yearly right now as well. It's probably also the best single team that is located in the bay area in terms of market share. Cal is pretty uninteresting in that regard.

True but I feel if there is a choice, and right now it appears there will probably be a choice, that would and probably should tilt it for Oregon being more in favor of joining the B1G rather than the SEC. If it's SEC or nothing then there isn't much choice there and that's what it will have to be. Granted I think I'd vomit a little every time I see the SEC logo on anything related to Oregon. I wouldn't be thrilled about a B1G logo on Oregon stuff either but it would be more palpable. Granted... I'm not consulted in any of these decisions as it is.

The oreyfan base is incredible but it does have one downside.... It's not a concentrated fan base. Outside of Oregon, which isn't terribly large, the base is everywhere. Doesn't matter so much for TV views though but it is difficult to pin down a particular media market.