David Marsh

Well... here we go on the Ducks v Beavers game... If Oregon loses to Utah and the Beavers obviously out completely. If Oregon beats Utah and then loses to the Beavers we are in the tie breaker scenario where it may be down between Oregon, Washington, and UCLA. At that point it probably will default to highest ranked team because of potential crossing tie breaker holders. However, if it is Oregon, Washington and USC with 2 losses, Oregon is out and whoever is higher ranked between Washington and USC goes to the title game as they didn't actually play each other. Oregon just needs to win and find a way to win. The rule of thumb with FishDuck articles is try to not exceed 1k words... I dance with that line all the time and adding in the Oregon-Oregon State Game would have definitely pushed me way over. If I need to I will write a follow up article next week. But lets just hope I don't need to do that! However... if Bo is out and injured that's basically the season right there.

I go over the scenario's in tomorrow's article. I don't see Washington making it at all in truth because of the way tie breakers work and who has games left to play. Washington is at two losses and has a loss to UCLA. It may come down to some crazy three way tie breaker stuff and if Washington beats Washington State that could enable them to potentially sneak into the championship game but in truth that doesn't feel terribly likely.

I doubt we will see a coaching change at this point. Need to close on the recruiting class soon so making those changes could blow it up. Cal fired Musgrave so Wilcox could save face by showing he is making the changes. This isn't that different from an AD firing a head coach early in the year; it isn't about making a positive on the field change right now but more showing that change is happening and coming to appease the fan base. As Oregon fans we want to see change happen on the field for our defense but there are probably a lot of things going on behind the scenes we don't know about and again with the early signing period coming up, I doubt Lanning wants to change up his recruiting staff at this point of the year.

But can they execute it? The Beavers lack solid quarterback play and depend on the run to keep their drives on time. I feel our defense matches up well enough against the Beavers to beat them. Utah is another problem... it will all come down to is Oregon can make the needed corrections this week to at least force a few punts. Utah though is more dependent on the run game, like the Beavers, so they will need to establish the run which may help Oregon's defense that is better at stopping the run.

I'll be honest... at this point in time I'm not questioning the coaches that much. The defense is bad but the defense has been pretty bad for three years in a row. That is three different DCs in that time span by the way and the same problems remain. Which has me thinking, is this a coaching issue or a player issue? These players just don't seem to be gelling as a team at this point on the defensive side of the ball. Sure there are some great individual players but miscommunications and missed coverages seem to run rampant. The coaches are trying to put a scheme that works for this group of defenders but the defenders aren't locking down on any of the receivers. We are awful at defending third down. We saw Washington convert a third and 14 with ease with a wide open receiver. That shouldn't happen and that problem has been there for three years. The last time Oregon's defense was a lock down defense was in 2019 with a whole bunch of veterans who didn't have anywhere near the same pedigree as our current roster. Defensive line play was better in 2019 which allowed KT to run rampant as a Freshman and it enabled the defensive backs to be ball hawks. On the flip side the defensive backs were good at locking down their receivers so the opposing QB couldn't just throw an easy out route so the pass rush had time to get pressure. This defense has none of it... it is probably a mix of coaches not able to get the job done and players still not understanding the scheme and their roles in it, part of that is on coaches but part of that has to be on the players too, especially considering Oregon has had basically the same weaknesses for three years now.

Right after Mario left Seven said he was going into the transfer portal. Then after a conversation with Lanning, Seven said he was saying. He has a strong relationship with Cristobal because he committed to Oregon so early. This is really not a surprise development at all.

Dilly will probably be getting a raise at Oregon. The offense hasn't been a problem this year.

Flip side of that... does he want to move much higher than 8th... maybe to 4 at the most because then he is drafted by a team that isn't total garbage in the NFL. Herbert went 6th and as a result that helped boost his status in the NFL. When his contract is up he will really have the chance to go almost anywhere because he is that talented and the only reason that is true is because he has a decent team around him. Granted the Chargers seem worse this year than last year but still. But I know, I know, the biggest pay comes for those highest in the draft and the goal is to always have the prestige of being an early draft pick. I get it... but for Nix I feel his draft goal should be to be taken early enough so that he is going to be the starter (or projected starter) but not too early where he ends up in a similar situation that he was in at Auburn where he has to try to do too much with too little.

That is if Flowe can figure out coverage... right now he just flies around the field and hits people... often the quarterback late.

Oregon has a stellar class of defensive linemen lined up as recruits right now. This is a problem that is being addressed but this is the side of the team that is in need of a rebuild and it's in the process of getting one. The individual players currently on the roster are pretty good as individuals but can't seem to play as a team. I feel Sewell is a bit lost in the current scheme, the previous schemes basically used him as a pure run stopper which is something he is good at but he is meh in coverage. Oddly enough the type of linebacker that Lanning really needs right now is a Troy Dye... Jeffery Basa is probably in the Troy Dye mold more than anyone else... a converted safety to linebacker. Flowe could be a great fit but right now he is just playing wild and out of control.

The defense is going to be a major project. We complain about how bad it is right now but the sad truth is that this defense has had the same problems for the last three years. I feel like Lanning is addressing the issue with recruiting but at this time we don't have the players capable of making this defense better for whatever reason. These players have the same problems for three years with three different DCs!

Thompson could very well be the new Locke. Locke was a team player and solid in practice, but when he stepped out onto the field he just didn't have it.

This upcoming weeks games will basically determine the conference because of the tie breakers. Whoever wins Oregon v Utah is effectively in. Whoever wins USC v UCLA is effectively in. Oregon holds a tie breaker on UCLA but needs one on Utah. UCLA holds the tie breaker on Utah but needs one on USC to get in, as that would give USC two losses. Utah holds a tie breaker over USC but can't afford another loss or they're out so they need to win. Yes.. the following week can also determine the outcome of the conference match up but Utah has Colorado and UCLA has Cal... Both should win those. USC is done with conference play this next weekend. Then Oregon has to beat Oregon State but I feel we match up relatively well again them, even with our poor defense as our defense is pretty good at stopping the run and that is what Oregon state will need to do as their QB play is sub par.

Probably should have punted... But in truth the runningback slipped and that's why the conversion failed more than QB play on that one. The runningbacks had an amazing game... And it was the defense that let the offense down..

Our defnesive line never got any real pressure either. Our defense isn't getting the job done... And it finally hit a team, since Georgia, that had the firepower to beat it consistently..

That defense is going to make me vomit...

We just need one stop at this point.... But that feels like too much to ask for.

That was precisely the series we didn't want out of our defense.

The defense is just awful

Middle eight time...let's go ducks!

Why are we letting them wear purple in our house! It's gross!

Dye had a pretty big work load last year in the second half the season for us... The big difference is that our offensive line is better. Not saying that would have stopped his injury but it always helps to have a better o-line.

Lanning is getting an extension and a bump in pay after this season. But he is still young and needs to prove he can sustain the program next year. This year he has done a fantastic job so far but next year there will be more challenges. Personally, I love the accomplishment based bonuses for Lanning, the reward success.

I suspect there are variations based on player preferences.

Pretty much all the DBs are four stars at least. I dont know on Gonzalez to be honest... But Manning was a 4 star (247 5-star), Bridges was a 4 star, Bennett was a 4 star, Stephens 4-star. The DBs are doing a much better job... They got burned against Colorado because of a major miscommunication which they should fix. Our biggest problem is the underneath throws... That and getting pressure on the QB.