Jon Joseph

I should said: 'currently employed ...'

Week 8, the first weekend on the 2021 slate with no Top 25 vs Top 25 games. But in this crazy season of upsets, you can expect more. It started last night, 10/20 , when #14 Coastal Carolina traveled to Boone, NC and was upset by App State, 30-27 Now, coming into Saturday's games, we are witness to something rarely if ever seen? 4 ranked teams are underdogs to not ranked teams. #8 Oklahoma State is +7 heading into Ames, Iowa to play 2 loss Iowa State. And OK ST is +210 Straight Up. This is a Rodney Dangerfield - like level of No Respect. 3:30 FOX #10 Oregon (say it ain't so!) +2.5 at UCLA. And I have yet to hear a CFB-expert-talking-head pick the Ducks to win this game. What do they know? 3:30 ABC #22 San Diego State +3.5 at Air Force. Puddles old buddy, Brady Hoke, has SDS rolling. But 1L AFA at altitude will not be easily shot down. 7 CBSSN #25 Purdue +3 vs Wisconsin - You beat the #2 out of Iowa. Now can you sustain this road performance at home vs a group of disappointing Badgers? 3 BTN The ACC with Clemson, Clemsoning, is up for grabs. Some ACC team has to play in the Peach Bowl, right? OOC - #16 Wake Forest - 3 at Army - At 6-0 Wake is waking up echoes not heard since the early 1970s. In Madison last Saturday, Army gave Wisconsin all it could handle. Noon CBSSN Clemson +3.5 at #23 Pitt - Holy Johnny Majors! Who turned back the clock? Is Mark May suiting up for the Panthers? Tony Dorsett? 3:30 ESPN #18 NC State -3 at Miami - The Canes have played badly but played hard for Coach Manny Diaz. This is an NC ST team that was blown out at the Pirate's Place. 7:30 ESPN 2 Closer to home. Oregon State +3 vs Utah - I think the Beavers shock the Utes in Corvallis? Utah is the leader in the Pac-12 S clubhouse but the Beavs are still in contention for the Pac-12 N. 7:30 Pac-12N Sandwich game for the Utes between coming back to beat ASU last week and playing UCLA in SLC nest week. USC +7 at #13 Notre Dame - Fortunately for the Trojans the game is on the road. Echoing the Iliad, Troy has been destroyed in its last 3 home games. A puncher's chance in South Bend? 7:30 NBC Come on Ducks! I'm in the running for the FishDuck Double Secret Probation Grand Prize if you win out. Win the day, or so they say, in LA!

30, when was the last time a Pac-12 team hired a successful, employed, P5 HC to take over the program?

And Spencer Rattler was better than Caleb Williams? The starting QB at Florida is better than the guy who replaced him and led 4 scoring drives in a row against LSU? Is an athletic QB who is an accurate passer with a strong arm a fit for the system Oregon is running on O? A guy who will take a chance on 50/50 balls and throw into tight windows? A guy who can keep plays alive when things as called break down? It was only the spring game but I saw plenty of talent and athleticism from all 3 back up QBs. These 3 are playing against the same guys in practice as they did in the spring. Why except for being coached down, would they look worse today than in the spring? I believe it was a very dedicated, intelligent Ducks fan who labeled Mario's O as being designed to play 'prevent offense?' Sounds to me like Moorhead has bought into and needs to defend the system of 'prevent offense?. The fans do not expect the team to score on every possession. But they certainly and reasonably believe that the team should score far more often against light weight opponents. Didn't this O go on a 99 yard drive in Columbus against the then #3 and now #5 ranked team in the country? When excuses come from the top how do you expect the guys underneath will play? This take by Moorhead seems to me to be a failure in leadership? If the OC is OK with not scoring on every position why shouldn't the players be OK with the same? Is anyone coaching these kids up? Other than the guy who coaches Camden Lewis.

EXCELLENT! THIS is the kind of performance that helps Dana in recruiting.

Thank you Coach. Are you interested in an OC job?

And your writing ability never ceases to impress and humble me.

But is a successful coach who competes in a conference that is usually out of Playoff continuation by the 1st week in November truly successful? If Mario was doing a Dabo in the Pac-12 I would agree; he isn't doing so.

Please, do not sign anything. I am too long in tooth and still trying to shoot my age on the golf course, at the end of 18 holes and not before. I just wish that a board of directors who like it or not, understand that they are managing a big business and would act like businesspeople. At the very least GK should have announced that SFO HQs are gone as soon as the business details can be resolved. And if you are not going to expand the conference, BK the insolvent network or open negotiations back up for ESPN or with FOX, for a media entity to take control of the network's operation and distribution. The very existence of the conference as a meaningful big time football conference is on the line and the best that these guys can do is play a pat hand? Adding 1 P5 OOC game a year is playing a pat hand. Staying as is with the BCS x 2 is playing a pat hand. Staying at 12 when there were long term beneficial expansion candidates begging to join the conference is playing a pat hand. And if you are opposed to an expanded playoff than why does it take more than 1 meeting to decide in 2022 to play 8 regular season games, dump divisions and play a 9th conference game on championship weekend. The SEC since Roy Kramer has been managed like a business. The Pac-12? Far from it. Mario's performance and the teams play does of course matter. But in the long run the financial viability of the conference matters far more. If GK and his bosses believe that CFB still cycles and the Pac-12 will return as is to be again amongst the dominant football conferences they are ignoring recruiting # and the # that are watching Pac-12 games. On a more micro level, does it continue to make sense for Oregon to give an equal share of the pie to member schools who refuse to or cannot, find the money to compete at the top level of CFB? I know this question is being asked by SC. Instead of destroying the B12 as P5 competitor the Pac-12 has put the B12 in a position to possibly poach Pac-12 teams. If SC was to demand a bigger piece of the pie Bob Bowlsby would at least have to listen, no? I have cried wolf before but this time the wolf is at the door. What's the end game? The B1G is not coming to the rescue of 12 Pac-12 schools. The new media deal will be significantly eclipsed by the B1G and SEC deals.

Not to pile on. Because of mergers in the rental car business this is not a perfect comparison but it is close. Based on money distributed to each member team: 1. B!G - Hertz 2. SEC - Avis - trying harder by weakening Budget. 3. Pac-12 - National 4. Big 12 - Budget 5. ACC - But for 1 franchise, Rent-A-Wreck You are the CEO of National. Budget at the impetus of Avis, implodes. Do you pick up the pieces of Budget and wipe out a major competitor while Avis improves its position; or, do you let Budget reorganize and re-group and thereby allow it to remain as a viable competitor? If you decide on the later, please do not bother to apply to Harvard Business School.

Mike, I couldn't agree more. The Pac-12 was once on an island that had the best treasure, the Rose Bowl Now? It's on an island that is no longer a destination point for CFB heavyweights and the best home-grown CFB recruits. And the treasure is only a treasure once every 3 years. And in the 3rd year you are more than likely to not see a Pac-12 team playing in Pasadena. The ostrich 'leadership' carries on post-Larry. Leadership that doesn't know, doesn't care, or both? I believe that at least half of the Pac-12 leaders would be happy to see the Pac-12 become the Ivy League West? Want to stop the Disney/ ESPN/ SEC hegemony of CFB? Fine. But what is the alternative plan? To add 1 P5 OOC game? To wait to 'score' a new media deal that has no chance to come close to the B1G/SEC deals? To sit still on expansion when the time was more than ripe? Any business person would have taken the opportunity to gut a competitor; to put a competitor away. But as you so noted and as I echoed above, the Pac-12 is run by academics who see business as being somehow beneath them. Time and tide wait for no man.

Please, help me off the floor. LOL paralysis.

Thanks Charles. Leadership that is reactionary rarely overcomes leadership that has a cogent, forward-looking plan.

Delay with negotiation, fine. Delay without a going-forward plan, the Alliance did not offer as a counter-proposal, seems to me to be obstructionist for the reason only of being obstructionist. Put the brakes on Disney's exclusive broadcast rights? I get. But does that curtail negotiating with Disney before the current deal expires? And if Disney was not willing to budge, if you expanded the PO field in 2023 and showed the viewership numbers sure to follow, would you not be preparing an improved product to be offered for bid in 2026? My guess? In order to assure an oar in the water come 2026 Disney would have been willing to negotiate now? I think arguably 'logical' decisions now may well not be so logical down the road. CFB is a big time business. In big time business if you have a 1 year plan vs a 5 year plan? Good luck.

Thanks for the post. I note that a poll of coaches by The Athletic earlier this season has LSU at 5 as the best CFB job and SC at 6. Today, obviously easier to win a Pac-12 instead of an SEC title. But as Stewart Mandel pointed out today, a $3.3M salary in Baton Rogue = a $5M+ salary in LA. Plus, where are your assistant coaches be able to afford to live in LA? Want to live on the beach and battle the 405? Or live in Baton Rogue and have the money to go wherever you so desire to travel? Want to play late at night on the Pac-12 network or during the day on CBS/ESPN? IMO, it certainly isn't an easy decision.

I get the anger at the underhanded manner in which Oklahoma and Texas jilted the B12 in favor of the SEC. I get the anger behind SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey being on the 4 man committee that recommended the playoff (PO) field be expanded to 12 teams while not disclosing the on-going negotiations with Oklahoma and Texas. With B12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby a member of the 4 man committee, 'this' was a stab in the back comparable to, 'Et tu Brute?' But was the ACC, B1G and Pac-12 forming a gentlemen's agreement Alliance in response to Sankey's absence of ethics the correct response for the Pac-12 regarding PO expansion? And was the Pac-12 correct in deciding not to expand the number of conference members 'at this time?' A time when a number of 'left-over' B12 teams reached out to the Pac-12 for admission? PO expansion? Does any conference need the PO field to expand more than does the Pac-12? With the conference one L away from again missing the PO in 2021, that's a rhetorical question. Sure, certain aspects of the expansion proposal were questionable? Why would the 4 ranked conference champs get a bye and not the top 4 ranked teams? How could first round games be played 'up north' in December without millions being spent on winterizing the fields and the stadiums? What would happen to the Rose Bowl? In good conscience how could any 'student-athlete' be asked to possibly play 17 games? Should Notre Dame be allowed to compete with playing only 12 games and not a 13th champ game? Should a Sun Belt champion that went 12-1 get in the field over a Pac-12 champion with a record of 11-2? With ESPN having exclusive media rights does it make sense to expand now or wait until the current deal expires in 2025? All good questions. But all capable of debate without throwing the PO expansion baby out with the PO expansion bath water. Typical of CFB's 13 disconnected 'leaders' to tease the fans with PO expansion before nailing down the details. If the PO does not expand before 2026, how will the delay possibly help the Pac-12 and the Pac-12's bottom line? 1 extra OOC game a season vs an ACC or B1G team is not going to materially improve the Pac-12's financial position. No expansion for the Pac-12 'at this time.' Was this the correct decision when considering the down-the-road strategic issues? Tactically, why add any team that will not immediately contribute to the bottom line? But having made this decision where does the Pac-12 go if it decides to expand in the future? BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF are joining the B12 which will take the conference along with the 8 remaining schools to a mathematically correct 12 teams. I fully expect with these additions that the B12 will retain its P5 status. Strategically, the Pac-12 by not adding say, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Houston and Kansas failed to take out a major competitor, failed to move into another time zone, failed to pick up a number of teams in big media markets and teams in smaller markets that have a larger following than most Pac-12 teams, failed to provide the opportunity for the functionally insolvent Pac-12 Network to add millions of subscribers, to get up on DirecTV and have the income to act like a real instead of a jv network, and failed to move directly into the fertile Texas recruiting grounds. I also note that none of the suggested teams are lightweights in basketball and in non-revenue sports. Further, by the Pac-12's own admission before deciding not to expand 'at this time,' AAU membership was not a requirement for Pac-12 membership. So, the Pac-12 gains an extra P5 OOC game when it already cannot get a team into the PO? Leaves the B12 in play as a competitor. Does nothing to improve the bottom line down the road. And has nowhere left to go should the conference decide to expand in the future. IMO, deferring a PO field expansion to an unknown time and standing pat at 12 teams were both Larry-like decisions. Decisions that will not pan out in the long run. Decisions that leave the conference on unstable financial ground.

Hats off to McKinley. And if Mr T hadn't been injured I think he would be on the list?

This Pats fan says: YES! Also agree with Ngata and Rashad. Not sure the stats bear this out but has there ever been a better Ducks pitch and catch than Fouts throwing to Bobby Moore?

STOP RATE = percentage of drives that end in punts, turnovers and turnovers on downs. Is anyone surprised that the #1 team in SR today is Georgia? [BTW, UGA just flipped SC's 5* DL 'commit' who is from Georgia] But having a great SR does not equate to overall success on the field. Clemson is #5, Bama is #38. And like many stats in CFB, SR does not account for the quality of the opposition's offense. Playing D vs Ole Miss is far different than playing D vs Vandy or Stony Brook. Pac-12 rankings: CU 34/ Utah 35/ Oregon 36/ ASU 50/ UW 53/ USC 61/ WSU 76/ OR ST 78/ AZ 79/ Stanford 85/ CAL 91/ UCLA 98. To date the Oregon O underperformed against 85 Stanford and 91 CAL. Teams that are not too good at stopping any team other than the Ducks. UCLA's SR is the worst in the conference. What will happen on Saturday when a suspect force encounters a movable object? Another SR caveat. A number of good CFBs bend but don't break. They keep teams out of the end zone or hold teams to FG attempts in the red zone. After all, the Ducks D gave up a whole lot of yardage to the Ohio State O. And Clemson's O this season has rendered its #5 SR ranking irrelevant.

Hard to 'bring life' when someone is smothering you, no?

Great list. I think Kyle Long finished at but did not start his college career at Oregon?

Pollock's opinion came ALSUBF - After LSU - Before Fresno. Chip's revolution seems not to be gaining traction among the masses? Few Powder Blue rebels are showing up to watch the battles. Considering when the revolution kicked off, by this point in the game I would have expected Chip's revolution to have run out of support, money and time? The revolution did draw national attention when an SEC team visited LA. Other than that this seems to be more of an unreported bloodless coup? Enjoyed the take. I believe David Pollack looks like Lloyd Christmas for a reason?

He did admit disappointment in how badly Justin Herbert was coached down. If a leader is disappointed in the results of his efforts he has to change or be replaced as a leader. A CEO who is disappointed and will not or cannot do something to change is out of a job. I'm sorry but I don't feel the least bit sorry for Mario. Wasn't he the captain of the ship that sailed into a sea of disappointment as the result of the captain's errors in seamanship. He is in a sea of disappointment he roiled up. And folks who think highly of him try to throw him a life jacket he refuses to catch. "But he has to move on ..." What evidence have you seen of the man's ability to 'move on?' He has to get the team to the playoff by 2023 or be fired. Fired earlier than that if attendance and enthusiasm at Autzen further disappear along with the brand. Mario's "culture" is killing the "brand." Why all of this 'sympathy' for a guy who is supposed to be a top drawer HC? My sympathy lies with the players who are not being coached up. Being taught to play for a W instead of being taught how to play not to get an L. I do hasten to add that your tolerance is commendable.

Terrific, nuanced, balanced article. Thanks again Joshua. I do see two camps of Ducks football fans. And I am judging neither one. The first group sees college football as it was prior to the BCS and the Playoff. A regional game where the only thing that truly matters is winning the Pac-12 against old foes and playing in the Rose Bowl on January 1st, preferably versus a Big 10 opponent. Who cares what people outside the Pac-12 conference think about the level of football being played out west? This is the Conference of Champions and football is only one of but many sports played in the Pac-12. Mario is a very good man who is trying his best. What else more can any sane person ask for? The second group sees college football since the advent of the BCS/Playoff to be a national, big time, big money sport. The sport that nationally stirs the national drink, both reputation and money-wise. The Ducks should roll through a milk-toast Pac-12 season after season, make it to the Playoff and win Playoff games against the best competition in the nation. When the Rose Bowl is not a Playoff semi-final site, it is a hyped-up exhibition game between non-elite college teams. Mario can recruit but is way over his head as a head coach and will never produce the results on the field that equal the quality of the roster he has assembled. Mario Cristobal has been a head football coach for 70+ football games. Over this period of time he has an average record as a HC. The first group believes Mario is learning and growing as a head coach. He will soon be at the top of his game and have the team ready to play every game. This is only his 4th season. The team is young and injured. What until next year! Or, the year after that? With a young team close games are to be expected. A W is a W, what do you want? The 2nd group believes that Mario has no potential for growth. That he is a good person who can recruit but does not have the chops to be a successful P5 coach; a playoff winning coach. He is a micromanager playing not to lose instead of playing to win. With the NFL Rookie of the Year playing QB he could not make the Playoff and won the Rose Bowl versus a 3L opponent by 1 point. And Mullens gave him an extension and a $9M buyout? We're stuck with him we might as well try to make the best of it? But its a grind and it ain't easy. What side of your bread do you butter? It's sports! So I am not the least bit surprised to see the dissidents making more noise than those who are satisfied with Mario's performance to date. Personally, FWIW, which is not much, I think Mario's coaching zenith is playing in the Rose Bowl in the year when the RB is not a semi-final site. He will not take Oregon to the Final 4 and will not win a national title. If you are OK with paying @5M a year for THIS? That's fine, eh?

Of course any OC is aided by having a McSorly at QB and a Barkley at RB. How different would the Ducks 2021 O look with Marcus at QB, Freeman at RB and JM having the freedom to use them as he so desired? The WRs and TEs on the team are comparable to the guys JM had at Penn State. It is about the Jimmies and the Joes. But you have to allow for error and put the best J and J's on the football field.