CalBear95

Go Bears!

Before people get too crazy about UW being #2, this list only goes back to 2015. If it included 2014 I bet the Ducks would land in that slot given the events of that year (the Huskies benefit from the inclusion of their 2016 season)

The NFL has the advantage of controlling the entire inventory. This means the SEC can block the 4pm ET slot if they share the same broadcast partner as the PAC because that partner is interested in spacing out games. Also, the NFL can shape when certain time zones play which is why the 1pm ET slot is fuller than the 4pm ET slot. There is flexibility in moving a game to SNF of course but these are minimal areas of control for networks. In CFB, the networks have total control when any game is broadcast. This is why the PAC will always get the short end of the stick. I yearn for the day when an NFL Red Zone show (if you don’t know what it is, stop reading and fix that right now) for CFB. That would take a collective pooling of rights unfortunately

You always need to keep in mind all of these pundits live on the east coast. They are biased to what they see most often. We are not a high frequency brand. We are 3 hours behind of 47.6% of the county. Our geographic isolation and relative lack of population density proximity is what hurts us. To get a sense of how much this hurts: How often would you stay up to watch U of Hawaii if they had a good program and a 2200 PST start time?

The challenge with the poaching scenario is that no conference can negotiate to make that happen as it would require the programs being left behind to actually agree to vote for that outcome. IOW, the PAC isn’t going to negotiate with the ACC to field anything less than the 10 remaining teams. And the per team money in blending only gets better if you drop 2-3 of the 10 remaining PAC teams. If any 16 team league spanning the PAC and/or the BXII and/or ACC were to happen it requires the first two conferences knife their fellow members and ESPN finds a way to green light a new deal for the ACC but for fewer teams in that newly reconstituted group which is effectively knifing their fellow members as well. Anything other than a full merger or milquetoast alliance will not be coming from league sources. So, great if the full 10 get a deal that is a good bit higher than projected but don’t be surprised if there are parallel shadow discussions underway or will soon be underway once the full size of the new media deal looks like.

If UCLA were to fall out, agree Stanford definitely would make the most sense as next up in the queue. They add the next biggest market and are the other west coast rival for ND which is the B1G’s white whale

If that were to happen then an ACC and PAC tie up would be inevitable

Not going to say ‘I told you this isn’t a fait accompli’ but… UCLA’s leadership acted stupidly here. The ‘I thought it would have leaked beforehand’ as the safety valve for not blindsiding the most powerful UC (Cal) tells you all you need to know Newsom is from San Francisco and will no doubt have deep ties to many powerful Cal alum (Cal alumnus are by far more powerful and wealthy political actors than UCLA’s…that isn’t me being a homer, it’s just fact). UCLA is going to have a pound of flesh extracted if it goes to the B1G which is probably the plan. Don’t block UCLA. Make them ‘voluntarily’ stay.

No doubt UCLA vetted all the legal gates they would need to deal with in order to make a move to the B1G. But they clearly couldn’t vet all the political risks because those are less concrete and they couldn’t back channel given the secrecy. The AD is going to be relevant only in internal UCLA discussions and that won’t be who Newsom is going to target his pressure campaign. He’s going to put the screws to the UCLA Chancellor Key to remember Chancellors are political animals and have concerns broader than sports. While I doubt Newsom or anyone involved would ever take actions that would harm UCLA’s academic resources and excellence, they can make the those administrators with ambitious suffer. I would say there is a non-zero chance of UCLA having to get Cal to come with or back out.

This feels like a strategic pause. Nothing optimal is presenting itself at the moment so slow down, signal a complete willingness to stay at 10 rather than panic and see where that takes you. That probably means any 10 team media deal will be short in term to preserve option value in a potentially dynamic/unstable landscape

Props for the use of military time. I wish, like the European date format (day-month-year) was more widely used in this country

Cost of living is certainly important but there is no way you can slag the City or Berkeley from a quality of living standpoint. I moved to the City after graduation and was dirt poor making $21k (and that isn’t all that long ago) and I can think of not better experience in one’s 20s.

It’s college towns, not ‘which universities have the most spirited and savvy students’ Berkeley is insanely fun as a college town. I love that place and every true fan of the university student’s life agrees with me. I cannot speak to why Eugene isn’t on the list as I always have fun there.

What’s so hilarious is the projection and entitlement. I mean, read every one of those comments. They read as critiques of SC more than Oregon. The comments around academics are obviously exaggerated but the two universities operate at different levels (I would say, however, that much of that swagger is coming from a place of insecurity because they aren’t a top 4 school in the PAC (furd, Cal, UCLA, and UW are higher rated)). Every insult and accusation is a confession

The problem with the lens of looking at the problem being one of revenue maximization is that outside of perhaps ND, adding anything other team will be dilutive. Therefore, if you take Sankey at his word that 16 is probably the right number going forward (and either it or 18 probably is given the principle of revenue maximization), the only path forward is a combination of culling and substituting bigger markets and/or brands). IOW, these leagues are somewhat forced to focus on the short term For example, the SEC has the USC Gamecocks. Adding Clemson is geographically dilutive. If geographic market is the only measure, adding Clemson makes no sense. If you do you would need to drop USC (obvs the SEC would perhaps take a longer view here but that would mean dilution in the short run). Part of the problem these networks have is truly valuing markets. They don’t have the instrumentation technology to really value brand vs geographic footprint Oregon and UW are tweeners because of their geographic markets. That is effectively saying ‘all else failing in terms of quality, we can rely on these teams drawing eyeballs from their local market.’ But they don’t really know how to truly attribute value for brand. This is why Oregon was tied to a potential bonus for certain crossover games in a hypothetical alliance with the ACC. It is an imperfect nod to the fact Oregon is a valuable brand. As streaming becomes more prevalent, look for this to change. Streaming services know who exactly is watching whom, from where, how long, etc. They can truly measure brand value. This is effectively what happened to the online advertising space. It started as the traditional CPM model or promotional/sponsorship fee model. That changed to CPC and CPP/A because the technology allows advertisers to really target users and tie payments to desired outcomes. That in turn made the advertising market explode in value. Essentially, at least as it relates to CFB, any non regional league (e.g., ACC + PAC combination of some type) should focus on top brands and markets (which will still matter a lot but won’t be the single coin of the realm) All non-FB sports should stay in a regional format for both logistical and rivalry reasons (think UW and Cal for rowing). This is a very long way of saying Oregon is undervalued in the current model. Everyone knows this but because the goal of realignment is short term revenue maximization and the current tools for determining value are somewhat rudimentary, any additions to a league like the SEC or B1G will be dilutive absent chucking some current members overboard.

Why Dobbs feels the need to slag Knight might be a way for him to take a pot shot at Oregon. I don’t know his corpus nor do I have the time to look for a history of animus. In any event, the idea that PK doesn’t know the ADs in prominent football schools or the commissioners of the P5 conference is laughable. And he sure isn’t calling them to beg in a panic as Dobbs is implying with the term ‘cold calling’

Love that movie. The scene with his mom visiting for the last time is insanely well acted (as is the whole move)

@Charles FischerI sometimes wonder if the PAC isn’t Kamchatka

If that happens then things will get really bonkers not only because the SEC would be at an odd number (which suggests there is another regional team in play) but because the BXII would be further diminished. That ought to give any PAC schools pause if leaning BXII and make Oregon really nervous about be stuck in a literal mid-major BXII

Saw an article (forget where but reputable brand) talking about ACC and PAC. Expect finances to be paltry under current framework being discussed. Arizona schools are staying in the fold until those revenue projections are presented. Then things get interesting. Arizona schools could bolt to BXII which probably forces Oregon to that same league. But that wasn’t why the article caught my eye (yes, I am burying the lede). It offered an possibility I hadn’t considered but doesn’t seem totally far fetched: the ACC becomes the aggressor and raids the PAC and BXII (in some case for schools like Cincinnati and BYU that aren’t yet even in the league yet). Most schools come from the PAC. Honestly, if that happened (1) I think it would be a great outcome for the the PAC schools involved and (2) you would have to respect the sheer audacity of it. Also, the BXII which is being a bit arrogant at the moment would, once again, find itself trying to figure out what just hit them (I don’t wish ill for them but their certainly of being in the driver’s seat at the moment is naïve given how crazy the dynamics of realignment are)

What’s nuts is that Oregon fell 4 spots. Says to me a good season my DL probably jumps them back up

Not saying I agree but 4x6 conf ==> 4 team tournament over 2 weeks rotating LA, Vegas, Mercedes, Jerry, Hard Rock? Or top seed’s home digs Rd 1 and then Vegas for final.

I suspect UW has license to use that number in the right situations

Yeah, it’s called Phil Knight’s cell phone

Those numbers are really rough for the PAC. Makes us the proverbial sick man of Europe. I know I’ve harped on this elsewhere but short sighted greed is getting in the way of a workable solution. In the PAC, the valuable brands are Oregon, UW, Furd, Utah, pick ‘em Arizona school, and possibly the Buffs. That’s 6 schools. No idea on the BXII to get the media markets you need. ACC is likely Virginia, UNC, Clemson, Miami, FSU, Pitt, and maybe GT to get the Atlanta market. That gets you to 18 assuming the BXII can find 6 teams (BYU, FIU, WV, one TX school, Kansas, and Iowa State can be dropped as their media value is either duplicated by the PAC or ACC, or is too low). Where greed gets in the way is any desire for asymmetrical revenue sharing. Does anyone think the Detroit Lions (Buffalo, Jax, etc…bring in more revenue than Dallas or the NYG? But the league works because a rising tide raises all ships. The long game is the collective win. But greed has a way of making people short sighted which is why I think this madness drags on far longer than it should