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GeotechDuck

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Posts posted by GeotechDuck

  1. On 9/23/2022 at 4:47 PM, DUCati855 said:

    LA to Seattle= 960 miles (by air)

    LA to NJ (Rutgers) 2450 miles (by air)

     

    So roughly 2.5 times as far.

    Without a west pod... Every flight would be at least 1.5 times as far.

     

    So there would easily be 3 times as many miles traveled  compared to the small footprint of the Pac12.

    Fair enough.   I am probably thinking about it from a gut feeling instead of logically.  

     

    I wonder if the BIG will leave the LA schools on an island?  They essentially already got what they wanted - media rights money and access to SoCal for recruiting.  Plus, it would benefit the current BIG schools:  

     

    1) Only 1 trip to the west coast trip per year maximum per team

    2) Increased travel will make it more difficult for USC and UCLA to be competitive

    3) Access to SoCal recruiting with games in LA every year.

     

    It will be very interesting to see how this plays out. 

  2. On 9/23/2022 at 9:00 AM, McDuck said:

    Kliavkoff spells out the reasoning near the bottom of page two of a letter the Pac-12 office sent to the California Board of Regents.

     

    WWW.NYTIMES.COM

    Letter from the commissioner of the Pac-12 Conference to the University of California Board of Regents, objecting to a move by U.C.L.A. to go to the Big Ten Conference.

     

    Interesting.  Thank you for the link to the article.
     

    it seems like there is a huge disconnect on dollars somewhere. The BIG listed their expense budgets for each of their schools last year, which includes travel for all sports. Michigan was at the top of the conference with total expenses of $9.2M/year. 
     

    Wisconsin was second at around $9M, then there is a 20% drop to the next school and some pretty decent falloff after that.  
     

    I understand that UCLA is going to have some increased travel, but it is not like Seattle, Pullman, Eugene, and Corvallis are that much closer for them.  I don’t see how you get to 3x the number Michigan is spending?  
     

    i would think double would be a stretch. 

     

  3. The whole “UCLA is going to lose money” thing seems really out of touch with reality.  
     

    Michigan had the highest student athlete travel costs in the BIG last year at a total of $9.2M for all athletes in all sports. 
     

    Even if that amount is double for UCLA and they have to give Cal some cash, they are going to be cash flow positive in the BIG over what they are going to get in the PAC

  4. On 9/19/2022 at 2:45 PM, Charles Fischer said:

    There are two other major components in this that can save the conference in my view.  First is the new 12 team playoff that could be worth two billion among the competitors. One game could garner 50 million for one team alone, thus these are huge revenue boosters for athletic departments, even if they are viewed as a massive bonus in some years.

     

    The other one is the Pac-12 considering rewarding the winners; those who qualify for the NCAA basketball and Playoffs do not get 1/12th of the revenue but HALF, with the rest split 11 ways. This will keep Oregon/Washington happy and preserve the conference.

     

    After all the concerns we had two months ago--we might be alright!

    Nice!  I had not seen that angle before, but that seems like another good option for saving the PAC.  I really want Oregon to stay in the PAC, if possible.  The thought of flying across the country to play Purdue, Rutgers, or Northwestern in November is just.......BARF!

    🤮

     

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  5. The way I look at it there are two choices for the Pac-10:

     

    Option 1: Take the estimated $300M/year from ESPN and accept that PAC schools are getting less than 1/2 the revenue of BIG and SEC schools.  This is a HUGE issue and will continue to widen the gap between the BIG/SEC and PAC, especially when players start sharing revenue. Option1 creates a situation where the Pac dies a slow death and eventually becomes irrelevant in 3-5 years.  I don't even view this as a realistic option at this point. 

         

    Option 2: Sell content to a streaming service like AWS or Apple. They want in on sports and there is a chance they might be willing to pay up to get content.  AWS just paid $1B for a year's worth of Thursday night NFL football games, so we know they are willing to throw money at sports.  Option2 has a ton of risk, but if a large portion of the population switches to streaming over the next 5 years, it might just work out and save the conference. 

     

    If AWS or Apple offers north of $400M, I think you take that deal tomorrow and just go all in and hope it works out.  Is there really another option with a long term chance of saving the conference?

     

    You get the playoff berth either way, so might as well roll the dice and see what happens. 

     

     

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  6. Washington has the 3rd most talent on any roster in the Pac and it is a balanced and experienced roster too.  Now that have a good head coach.  They are going to beat some people up. 
     

    They have just as good of a chance to win this conference as Utah, USC or Oregon.  It is goi g to be a fun year.  

  7. Wow.  That was just terrible.  Some things never change…or maybe they actually get worse.  
     

    That 2nd to last possession where they threw a 6 yard pass on 2nd and 30.  Then on 4th down, you run the clock almost all the way down to zero before you punt (or in Miami’s case, get a penalty)?!? 
     

    That on top of the three straight runs on 1st and goal when you are behind to settle for 3????
     

    Mario headed to the locker room to tell his team they need to play with more physicality.  

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  8. That is an amazing statistic if true.  60-65% of the total content on TV is still through a cable / dish provider?  

    Wow...I would have thought that would have been much lower by now.  I have not had cable in many years.  

     

    How hilarious would it be if Amazon just threw down and matched the BIG offer for content and USC and UCLA were stuck solo in the BIG for the same paycheck?  I know that is not going to happen, but one can hope, right?

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  9. The practice reports in the fall, prior to the first game, had numerous references to running backs putting the ball on the ground.  
     

    Without speculating on specific players, as that detail was not provided, I wonder if what we are seeing in the rotation right now is a result of some ball security issues in fall camp with the top performers. 
     

    I suspect that a couple of guys will start to pull away from the rest of the pack as we go forward.  

  10. I would rather be Lanning all day long.  Losing to an FCS team doesn't go away.  Getting thumped by Georgia (who won their conference games by an average of 43 points last season) will fade pretty quickly, especially with a win against BYU (fingers crossed).  

     

    BTW...they need to put a rule in place under the new system that if a team loses to an FCS school they are immediately eliminated from the 12-team playoff.  

  11. IMO, the expectations for this team have been out of whack ever since Lanning got here. 
     

    Completely new coaching staff, new systems on both sides of the ball, basically all new skill players.  Lost the leader in sacks, INTs on defense.  We have a ton of unproven talent with little to no experience in critical positions on both sides of the ball.  Yet, I saw people talking about Rose Bowls and Playoffs.  I just couldn’t get my head around that concept.  
     

    I said it several times over the past few months.  We are going to take some lumps this year.  There will be mistakes and confusion at times.  We might lose a couple of games we shouldn’t.  
     

    Didn’t Kirby Smart go 8-5 his first year with a pretty stacked roster??  IMO, the expectations for this team were just never realistic.  

  12. On 9/2/2022 at 2:43 PM, noDucknewby said:

    Yes, great for the P12 champ but I don't see how it changes the equation in the long run.  The at-large bids are going to be dominated by the Power 2.  I'm figuring the B!G/SEC each put 3 at-large teams in, ergo a 4th place finish in those conferences is better than a second place finish in the P12.  Plus our conference champ would have to be in the top 4 to get that first critical first-round bye.

     

    This is a huge improvement no doubt, but for us the best chance to stay relevant long term remains B!G membership.

    I agree that if you get the BIG invite, you have to take it.  The money matters, especially when it starts getting distributed to the players.  However, if you don't get that invite, you still have a path to the playoff every year.  HUGE news for Oregon and probably strengthens their hand a little right now.    

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