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GeotechDuck
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Posts posted by GeotechDuck
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I vote for Georgia too. With that schedule, losing to a couple good teams in understandable.
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I stopped reading the article once I saw that the so called Texas SOS is ahead of every team in the BIG, despite losing to the only ranked team they have played by multiple scores and only beating one team with a winning record.
Classic case of garbage in / garbage out, IMO.
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On 11/21/2024 at 5:53 PM, Charles Fischer said:
Geotech...I was creating space in some areas of your post, and the software popped in emojis. Not my intention, but the forum technology is malfunctioning at the moment. We understand your points, and appreciate the work put into creating the post. I am frustrated with the software mucking-up at this time, and apologize for giving your post some "decorations" that were unintended.
Thank you very much for the help! I was trying not to get too many spaces in there, but sometimes it backfires on me. I like it. The decorations give it some flare.
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On 11/21/2024 at 4:24 PM, JabbaNoBargain said:
What is the specific team(s) people think isn’t ranked properly?
Here are my opinions on this. Georgia is very under-valued. They are being penalized for playing an extremely difficult schedule. They are the only team that has 3 wins against the Top 25, including 2 against the Top10. Both of their losses are against the Top10 as well. They are the only team in consideration that has played 5 ranked teams.
Texas, Indiana, and ND are all currently over-valued.
Here is how I would rank them now:
1) Oregon - Three Top 25 wins, no losses
2) tOSU - One Top 5 win and a loss to the No. 1 team
3) Georgia - Three Top 25 wins, including two vs the Top10. Two good losses to Top 10 teams.
4) Penn State - One Top 5 win and one close loss to the No. 2 team
5) Tennessee - One Top 10 win; one Top 10 loss; one suspect loss
6) Alabama - Two Top 25 wins, including a Top 10 win; one Top 10 loss; one suspect loss
7) Ole Miss - Two Top 25 wins; one loss outside Top 25; one horrible loss
Indiana - Undefeated, but no Top 25 wins.
9) Texas - Only one win against a team with a winning record; Lost to the only ranked team they played.
9) Notre Dame - One Top 25 win against a team that has no Top 25 wins; one horrible loss
10) Boise St. - Two Top 25 wins and lost to No. 1 by three. SOS is outside the Top 60.
11) BYU - One Top 25 win; Beat SMU head to head. Poor SOS.
12) SMU - No ranked wins, but a better loss than Miami (who also lost two other times and get bailed out by the refs).
Here is my playoff prediction:
1) Oregon; wins the BIG CCG
2) Alabama; wins out + Missouri wins 1 of 2 to get into the CCG. Beats Texas or A&M in the CCG.
3) SMU; wins out + beats Miami in the CCG.
4) Boise State; wins out and finishes higher than the Big-12 champion
5) ND; wins out. Slotted here above tOSU to avoid the UO vs tOSU hat trick
6) tOSU; runner up in BIG. Drops a spot due to the CCG loss for seeding purposes.
7) Penn State; wins out but misses CCG.
Georgia; wins out, but misses CCG. SOS gets them seeded above other SEC teams.
9) Texas; beats A&M but loses to Bama, but that is enough to keep them in the field.
10) Ole Miss - Wins out and is enough to stay in the field.
11) Tennessee - with UTEP and Vandy left, they win out.
12) Colorado - wins the Big-12 and secures the 12 seed.
First teams out - Indiana, Miami, then BYU.
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On 11/21/2024 at 2:01 PM, CalBear95 said:
My guess (hope?) is that the committee will operate a bit like they do for the basketball tournament when seeding and shape the bracket by dropping the Ducks or OSU to the 6 seed to avoid an outcome of the teams playing each other three times before the final where such a scenario would be acceptable. In BB slotting teams to avoid each other as long as possible e.g., Final Four) for one reason or another (like this one) happens pretty frequently. It would be smart for them to do that here.
Agree. Basketball has it figured out and they should follow that model. However; so far, not so good. The current bracket looks like it was formed on current record and has little to do with SOR, SOS, or type of loss. It's unfortunate, because I feel like there was an opportunity to elevate SOR as a key metric to reward OOC scheduling, but it looks like they did the opposite. If I was an AD in the SEC or BIG, I would schedule all cupcakes for OOC games.
How do you have a team that has 2 Top 10 wins, another Top 20 win, and 2 top 10 losses above a team that has ZERO Top 25 wins and only 1 win against a team with a 0.500 or better record?
The committee should be embarrassed right now.
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On 11/21/2024 at 3:00 PM, Haywarduck said:
At CU he could end up playing for another head coach. Deion turned Jackson State around and left. He has now turned CU around and his kid is graduating, nothing keeping him in Boulder after this season. Travis Hunter will be gone too.
I wonder if Deion gave him a promise to stay, but what is that worth?
He will probably just take him along to FSU next year.
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One of my biggest joys in life right now is watching USC circling the drain.
What a great year.
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This could be the most ridiculous article I have read this entire year. So bench your starting QB, get blown out, then take you chances on getting into the playoff with no wins against ranked opponents?
Joey is bonkers.
Joey Galloway: Indiana should bench QB Kurtis Rourke vs Ohio State to maintain CFP path
WWW.USATODAY.COM
ESPN's Joey Galloway on Tuesday said Indiana football shouldn't play quarterback Kurtis Rourke vs. Ohio State to keep its...-
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I could see Indiana getting up to No.2 if they pull off the upset and beat tOSU soundly.
The Ducks are safe at No.1 for another week with wins against 3 teams in the Playoff Top 25.
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On 11/19/2024 at 7:03 PM, David Marsh said:
That would make for a strange CCG.
Granted I also wouldn't entirely put it past Lanning to game the system that way. But winning the B1G on his first year in the conference would be too freaking epic to pass up.
They need to get rid of the conference winner byes and just give the top 4 teams the byes.
You can still get an autobid if you win your conference. But there is no way the Big-12 or ACC should be getting a bye this year.
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Andy and Ari on their podcast tonight are half joking around that tOSU and Oregon should both try and lose on purpose in the CCG to get the 5 Seed.
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On 11/19/2024 at 3:16 PM, spartan2785 said:
With football you could make that argument, one of the top SEC team is going to be left out, I don't think Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Georgia, and Bama all get in. One of those team will have a somewhat valid argument that they could win it all.
If Texas loses again, they should be the team that gets left out of this group. SEC needs to schedule 9 conference games and all BIG and SEC teams should only be allowed to play on G5 team a year max.
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On 11/19/2024 at 1:23 PM, Charles Fischer said:
Strength of Schedule? Really?
Thank you for posting this, as the real discussion begins at the end of the season. They can have a process, but do they follow it?
Agree
. If they even slightly valued or considered any portion of SOS, Georgia would not be behind Texas, Indiana, or Notre Dame.
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On 11/19/2024 at 12:53 PM, woundedknees said:
Notre Dame has been given more "Benefit of the Doubt" credits than any other team in known history...
The question is how does that continue to happen? They have not won a major bowl game in 30 years. Every time they get into a big time post season game, they get run off the field like a bad G5 school.
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On 11/19/2024 at 2:12 PM, David Marsh said:
Kinda... the reality is that there are a whole lot of teams that don't stand a chance at the National Championship.
Would ensuring four or five Big 12 teams in the playoff increase their chance of winning the National Championship? Not really, they'd all probably lose to superior teams.
The SEC probably only has two maybe three true contenders for the National Championship. But no one in the SEC looks especially dominant and adding more to the mix just seems like giving opporunties to teams that will be competitive to the other mediocre teams in the playoff but not be true contenders.
I'd say the B1G has two in Oregon and Ohio State, outside of those two I don't see Penn State getting it done.
Agree for sure now with the 12 team playoff. I was referring to the 2-4 team playoff. There were a lot of years that the SEC got 2 teams in because of the reduction in conference games and skewed rankings.
If you get two teams in that are competitive at an elite level, I would argue that your chances of winning the title go way up in a 4 team playoff. They even got two teams (one with 2 losses) in the 2 team playoff.
There were a lot of good teams that got left out because of that 8 game SEC schedule or ND’s G5 schedule with no CCG that could have won it all.
Oregon in 2012 immediately comes to mind.
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On 11/19/2024 at 7:56 AM, Tandaian said:
Nothing to be done about it this year or the next few years, but I can see the CFP reseeding after the opening round. Since, the #5 seed is more often than not going to be ranked #2-#4 in the final rankings, why should they get a much easier path than the #1 seed.
Yes, the #5 seed has to play an extra game, but it is at home and then they play the weakest automatic bid team. The #5 seed is almost guaranteed a semi final birth every year with the current system.
100%. This year it is entirely possible that the 5 seed is goi g to get Boise followed by Colorado.
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On 11/19/2024 at 10:20 AM, DanLduck said:
It seems that we have all been so inundated with how great the SEC is all these years that we believe that exaggeration unquestionably.
Remember, they only play 8 conference games. If we had played Mercer instead of WU last sat, we'd be thinking how great we were.
The "playoff" structure has favored the SEC since the BCS days. That's why they have won so many titles.
Imagine if they played 9 conference games, half would have 1 more loss.
You would end up with a lot more 8-4, 9-3, even 7-5 records. The result, fewer high ranked teams.
If Oregon played the SEC this year, I believe we would beat everyone except maybe Georgia (always tough to beat your former headcoach).
We've had some issues, but since OSU, we've been rolling. The offensive letdown at WU can be written off as 8 in-a-row fatigue. Every team has a game or 2 each year like that.
Remember, we beat tOSU without Burch. WU without our #1 receiver Tez.
We may not be undefeated in the SEC, but I'm sure we'd be playing for the SEC championship.
Our team is special this year and DL is finding creative ways to keep them motivated and focused.
I for one don't buy the SEC hype. Our Ducks are the real deal.
Thanks Darren for a great conversation starter.
And this exact reason (8 conference games) is why the SEC has ended up with 11 teams in the playoff since expanding to 4. While the next best conference (BIG) only has 7 appearances.
The more teams you put in the playoffs, the better the chances.
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On 11/19/2024 at 10:55 AM, Jon Joseph said:
Thanks, Grandpa, and AMEN Charles.
Much of the legitimate criticism of the Committee would disappear if it followed the Basketball Committee and revealed the metrics it uses in ranking and seeding teams.
Search - Metrics Used by the College Basketball Committee for detailed descriptions of these metrics.
NET - game results including where the game was played and whether it was a QUAD I, II, II, or IV win.
WAB - Strength of Record Metric
BP Index and KenPom Index- These metrics measure the quality of wins.
Strength of Schedule, Strength of Record including where the games were played, weather at game time, injuries to key players before, and in-game and Game Control Statistics are all available to the Football Committee. So why do we have the CFB Committee Chair talking about The "Eye Test" that ipso facto makes the Committee subject to claims of bias?
The Committee's 1st and 2nd rankings appear to be based solely on the number of losses a team has suffered. The No.1 reason why the B1G and the SEC will have three to four automatic qualifiers come 2026.
Exactly this. There is no excuse for not having some kind of metric to measure these teams at this point.
Applying the basketball criteria…
Notre Dame has a Q4 loss. Texas has one Q2 win, maybe. How are either of these teams in front of Georgia, who has multiple Q1 wins and and two Q1 losses?
It’s a joke. Even just applying common sense to this. If playing on a neutral field, would Georgia be an underdog to ND? Absolutley not! They would be a multiple score favorite to win that game.
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Great article. In most cases, I would agree that Oregon would would probably not be undefeated in the SEC. However, if they had the same schedule as Texas, they would easily run the table.
Difficult to know who is really good with these unbalanced schedules.
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This seems like a good sign…
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On 11/18/2024 at 11:57 AM, JabbaNoBargain said:
I'll be mildly surprised if tOSU gets the nod over one of the big names from the SEC with the same number of losses. Probably depends on the nature of the loss by tOSU. I don't think that it is a certainty that a conference championship loser automatically gets the nod over a #3 10-2 SEC team (especially if it's Alabama or Georgia) that lost a conference tiebreaker and didn't play in their championship game.
We shall see!
I’m with you here. If tOSU loses to Oregon again, then I think the committee will push the second place SEC into the 5 seed slot. Both will likely have 2 losses and by pushing tOSU to the 6 seed, you can avoid the third matchup in the semis.
Where this gets interesting is if Oregon loses a very close game to tOSU. Then the committee almost has to put Oregon at the 5 seed and you have that matchup in the semis again.
The 5 seed right now looks to be the easiest path to the semis if they get Boise then the Big-12 winner. It may even have a small advantage over the 1 seed which seems crazy.
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Whichever team gets the 5 seed is going to walk into the semifinals. They will likely have Boise at home in the first round, then the BIG-12 champ in the second.
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On 11/16/2024 at 9:26 PM, HDuck said:
You can run W-L scenarios at this link. Though when I looked at it a little while ago it didn't have Rutgers beating Maryland. Simply click on a team to change the highlighted winner then click the calculate standings button. The guy's algorithm considers all the tie-breaker scenarios toward top two.
mred's Big 10 FB Standings Generator
BBALL.NOTNOTHING.NET
Big 10 Conference Football Standings with TiebreakersI found a situation where Oregon ends up 4th. Highly unlikely, but it is there.
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I sure hope so. I would love Oregon to curb stomp those jokers again.
So, Who is the Best Team in the SEC?
in Our Beloved Ducks
Posted
Right now, it looks to me that three teams are separating themselves from the rest of the pack. Those teams are Oregon, tOSU, and Georgia. Texas could be in that group too, but we won’t know until the playoff because of their trash schedule.
Hopefully those 4 teams all don’t end up on one side of the bracket. However, I am not holding my breath.