Nevada Dawg

I have no quarrel with the Ducks being rated ahead of USC. BUT... Watch out for the dreaded Huskies and even for the Beavs should the Clemson transfer QB hit his stride similar to the way Nix did last year.

Georgia's "cakewalk" schedule is far from their doing. The second game next year was to be a road game to Norman to play OU. The SEC forced Georgia to drop that game, the first of a home and home, because the second part of that home and home was a few years out and probably could not be easily accommodated in the new SEC 9-game scheduling model. The word I have heard is that Kirby Smart wanted to play the game anyway, probably to get his team's competitive juices flowing early like they were for the Ducks game last year. But the request was denied. Georgia is also one of strongest league proponents of the 9 league game model. I suspect that this is the model that will prevail as TX and OK are assimilated next year. But I'm told that several teams would still prefer the 8 game schedule because, by adding a cupcake game rather than a 9th SEC game, it makes it easier for them to become bowl eligible. The 9-game model, which each team having 3 permanent rivals and 6 that rotate, preserves all major rivalries and enables each team to play each of the other teams over a two-year period. It also allows a four-year player to play in every one of the league's stadiums. The way the schedule is now, some teams (e.g., Georgia) have not yet played Texas A&M in College Station, although they have met in Athens. The Georgia fan base, particularly ticket holders. absolutely hate the cupcake games, which are sometimes referred to as "baby seal clubbings." One poll of fans on the Dawg Nation site indicated that fans' favorite schedule in recent years was the 2020 COVID-year slate which consisted solely of 10 SEC opponents. Kirby Smart has said that the best thing about non power-five games is the opportunity to get younger players a fair number of game-time reps instrumental for their development. But he would rather have fewer of these games. I personally would prefer that the schedule require at least one non-league power 5 matchup apart from the SEC schedule. Georgia already has one every year with Georgia Tech . Tech is down for now but they won't be forever. Some fans would rather swap out Tech for a Clemson or Florida State, but given its historical significance, I suspect the Tech game will survive.

Teams that are reasonably talented can catch lighting in a bottle and make a worthy competitor for a natty. Georgia was such a team in 2017, Kirby Smart's second year, losing in OT in the natty to Alabama on a blown coverage in the secondary. Yet, they did not yet have the roster to be talked about again the way they are talked about now until 2021. One team that did catch lightning in the bottle and win the natty was 2019 LSU. Their roster was not very deep, and as a result, they fell well off in 2020 and 2021. The PAQ-12 is improving and is going to be fun watching. But I don't believe that any of the schools yet have a roster that makes them a shoo-in for a playoff berth in a four-team playoff. Should someone out here actually go undefeated, that will solve the inclusion problem, though I don't expect that to happen. A one-loss champ will also have a shot. But there is this perception among the rest of college football that the league is soft-- a perception that can only be overcome by some good intersectional wins against strong programs. Those kinds of wins are not happening often enough. The best in recent memory was the Ducks' win in Columbus two years ago. So, again, I'll conclude that an affirmative answer to the question that prompted this thread is not totally beyond the realm of possibility, but it is highly, highly unlikely. It would be nice to see though if my Dawgs, who definitely have a roster that is playoff worthy, falter along the way and are eliminated.

Well in light of my earlier post which could be framed as pessimistic about the Ducks' chances next year, it is only fair that I report the 4-team picks for the playoffs among ESPN"s college football scribes. Two of the eight writers, David Hale and Bill Connelly, did indeed tab the Ducks in the four-team playoffs. The most popular Pac-12 pick was USC who were picked as playoff participants by 6 of the writers. Georgia and Alabama were tabbed as participants by seven of the eight writers. So there is some support for the Ducks among the pundits and, in my humble opinion, way, way to much support for the Trojans who managed to lose their biggest games with a Heisman QB at the helm.

There are many good analyses above on why competing for a Natty in year two is very unlikely. My take is that the Ducks roster is simply not deep enough with talented players to realistically compete this coming year. But then, again, there is always the possibility of the totally unexpected like this year with TCU which I believe was a far better team than they showed in the Natty against Georgia. Had the question been Can the Ducks realistically compete for a Natty in year 4 of Lanning's tenure, I could well have a different answer for you. In my opinion, recruiting has to pick up even further and the new coaches have to do a bang-up job developing players for that to happen. Getting in the 12-team playoffs should be attainable by year 4, but several (perhaps most ) of those teams will not be realistic options for winning it all. So go Ducks. I hope that you prove me to be a pessimist, and if you do, I'll be rooting for you all the way.

Robinson will have no problem finding a home at Georgia should he play college football. And although Georgia has recruited a mid-level 4 star and a high level 4-star as TEs in this 23 class, they are freshmen and the loss of Darnell Washington was huge. Bottom line: Duce likes Georgia and is a good bet to be a Dawg should he play football. He knows he has a spot there regardless of when he decides to show up. He will be a "flex" tight end most likely in the mold of Brock Bowers (who returns) with roughly the height but not the girth of Darnell Washington. Whoever gets him will have a Dude!

A couple of observations regarding this thread (solely my opinions of course). It is not real clear to me that Harbor is really a football player. I am told that this is the reason Georgia did not recruit him. Of course, he may prove me and the Georgia staff wrong, but my point is that Harbor may be a far bigger loss as a track athlete than as a football player, ranking be damned. Second, and again I could be wrong, but I think Oregon has no shot with Duce Robinson. Current projections are that he is, at best, a second or third rounder in the baseball draft so he'll probably play some college football but doesn't want to sign for fear it could hurt his baseball draft position. The draft is not until June. Georgia has led for Robinson for some time, and the other most likely option, USC may have become less likely after the commitment of TE Lyons to 'SC this afternoon. Of course the distant third for his college commitment is Texas, but with the NIL deals that school is offering, they are never off the table these days.

In my opinion, Stetson has made some awful moves in the past 10 days. Spurning the Senior Bowl was the first. He needed to practice, play and have the opportunity to do interviews with NFL GMs and other NFL personnel to make a favorable impression anywhere he could. He would have been playing under the Chicago Bears OC, perhaps the coach running the offense that could have best used Stetson's attributes under center during the game. For a guy who can succeed in such a system, or in Shanahan's in San Francisco, you've got to strut your stuff when opportunity knocks. And worst of all, rather than being somewhere where he could possibly make favorable impressions, he's out partying ,getting arrested, and doing the exact opposite. Stetson had to win me over, and he did last (and this) year by repeatedly making huge plays in absolute crunch time. It was this ability to lead and to find a way to win that put him on the radar for an NFL shot. He's dug himself a hole IMO and will have to work his living butt off to have any reasonable shot of making an NFL roster now.

I am pretty sure that Williams will be drafted high and have a decent pro career, although among young QBs, I would not take him over Herbert. I said Williams was overrated, not talent challenged. We'll see how far that talent carries him. The problem as I see it is that Lincoln Riley produces "system" QBs that excel in college (look at all the Heismans) but who don't lead their teams to much team success in the pros. Ohio State is another school that produces these "system QBs who don't do much as pros. Can it be argued that these QBs are drafted by lousy teams which brands their lack of success perfectly understandable. Sure, that is a point for debate. But that high bar is not too high to prevent the success of the truly great ones. Case in point: Joe Burrow. He is the last Heisman winner (2019) who, in my opinion, unquestionably was the best college player in the year he won the award. He went to a mediocre at best Bengals team and, now in his third season, is on the cusp of leading that team to its second Super Bowl in those three years. I am just always leery on the true abilities of those " big stats" system QBs who seem almost always to win what I have come to regard as tainted Heisman trophies.

Williams is the most overrated QB in America in my opinion He has the tools to be great and he ran up enough stats against so-so competition to impress the brain dead media types who often don't look beyond stats to determine their Heisman choice. By the metric that counts most in my opinion, winning big games, Williams was the least accomplished of the four Heisman finalists. The other three all got their team to the playoffs: Caleb failed on that metric in the PAC-12 championship game. By my metric, the most accomplished of the four was Stetson Bennett, and Stet was recognized for his leadership and sheer will to win by awarding him the Manning award for 2022 symbolizing the best QB for that season. I am just not all that impressed by Caleb Williams. Perhaps he will change my mind. Time will tell I guess.

I did my own ranking prior to reading the article and found myself agreeing exactly with the four projected toughest games, for what that's worth.

I read this morning that MJ Sherman has found a new home at Nebraska and was surprised that he still had three years of eligibility remaining. My prediction is that he will become a meaningful contributor to that defense. Correction: It was late when I typed my response to the death of the Georgia football player yesterday. His name was Willock not Wilcock.

Devin Willcock was not only a good and rapidly improving OG who played a fair amount in the offensive line rotation, but he was also a very good (nearly straight A's) student I am told in a rigorous undergrad business major (Insurance and Risk Management.). So his life extended far beyond the football field. Nevertheless, he was projected as a likely starter on the Georgia OL next year. Most of what I learned about him today centered on his amiable character and sunny disposition. He was a beloved teammate whom everybody seemed to adore. And yet, he was an intense competitor between the lines. He sounds like the kind of kid whom I would have loved to have taught at UGA. Rest in peace young man.

MJ Sherman I am told is a great guy and teammate who contributed regularly on special teams. He was injured late in his high school career and simply was not the athlete Georgia thought it was getting. the Dawgs even passed on future Alabama All-American Will Anderson to take him. I am pretty sure Lanning knows Sherman well as he coached OLBs as a position coach at Georgia. We'll see if the Ducks pursue Sherman who deserves the opportunity to show what he has somewhere over the next couple years. Most Georgia fans would classify MJ as a DGD (Damn good Dawg).

Georgia had an awesome 22 recruiting class at DB and the other guys were early entries where Singletary was not and fell hopelessly behind. I'm told he has excellent coverage and ball skills but is slight of build and was having problems reaching a weight at which Georgia wants their DBs to be. Plus, I'll say again that the DB room at Georgia is stacked with more experienced guys. I have no idea what Lanning knows about the kid, but I am sure that Kirby would play straight with him were Lanning to ask. Personally, I think Singletary is worth the risk and he could confer significant benefits a year or two down the road. I'm guessing that the hill to climb at Georgia was simply too steep given the talent, much of it as young as Singletary is, present in Athens.

Actually, many coaches championed advent of an early signing period. One big advantage is that it gives eligible incoming recruits the option of enrolling early and actually participating in practices for a team's upcoming bowl game, thus getting a big jump on preparation for the following freshman year. Georgia's All-American tight end Brock Bowers credits the early start for the awesome freshman year he subsequently posted in which he led the Dawgs in receiving in 2021. Most of the big-time coaches love wrapping up the majority of their classes early. You won't see Kirby Smart or Nick Saban (nor I suspect Dan Lanning) complaining about early signing.

This is a great pickup for the Ducks. Lanning was Jordan's contact person when Georgia was recruiting him, and I speculatged a week or so ago that if he could break away from Mama's wishes, Oregon might just be a likely landing zone, particularly if an NIL offer was attractive. Some on the Dawgs' main blog had speculated that he would be Athens bound. But as he would have to fight it out with accomplished DLs there and with two 5-star edge guys, Oregon was clearly the best spot for Jordan. I wish him great success in Eugene where he fills a big need. Go Ducks!

It is hard not to like this kid. Maybe he is not a great QB but he is something I respect just as much--a gutsy football player. Another one of these just won a second natty tonight--Stetson Bennett. To me, calling someone a gutsy football player is high praise indeed.

Kirby was actually trying to shorten the game after Bennett came out by handing the ball off repeatedly to the 4th string running back, freshman Branson Robinson. Somebody forgot to tell Branson to go easy and he scored two rushing touchdowns. TCU was so gassed by this point in the game that the most humane thing to do might have been to repeatedly go into victory formation--which could have been almost construed as tacky and condescending with nearly 10 minutes left in the 4th Quarter. I kept asking myself should there be a mercy rule that could be invoked in games like this?

I will point out that there have already been two non-SEC/B1G champions in the playoff era and both were Clemson of the ACC.

As I was a big proponent of the Dawgs going all in on Sewell out of HS, I have watched him carefully the past two years. In 21, he was generally slow to go to the ball side--to- side and seemed engaged only when plays unfolded right in front of him. This year was more of the same and, if anything, a bit of a regression from last year. I expected him to be a stud. He turned out to be a disappointment to me. I am not a football coach, but as an amateur scout, I couldn't justify drafting Noah higher than the 4th or 5th round. In my opinion, he should have returned and worked his butt off to improve his draft stock.

Though I posted yesterday about the smoke I'd seen from Georgia sources about Birch and the Ducks, the word among insiders on the blogs today is that the Dawgs are the team to beat for his services. If this is an NIL recruitment, the Ducks, I suspect have a fighting chance as the Dawgs will not be the NIL leader. Yet a reason that Birch committed to USC in the first place is that he was from Columbia and Mama wanted him in Columbia. Maybe Birch has developed enough independence to buck Mama's wishes, but I suspect she will voice her displeasure should he decide to play in Eugene 2500 miles from home. Of course, I have no personal inside knowledge, so this is all pretty much my thinking out loud (i.e., speculation) at this point.

I am seeing some smoke about former South Carolina DL Jordan Birch, someone who Georgia recruited hard out of high school, being a target of interest for the Ducks. The "smoke" was on the Georgia blogs. Anybody connected to the Ducks know anything about this? Jordan is a former 5-star and a very good college player.

I think it could easily be argued that the other three Heisman finalists and playoff participants) (Duggan, Stroud, and Bennett) were all more deserving than a guy who could not engineer a win over Utah to get in the playoffs. And by the way, having to rely on statistics to win awards is what is wrong with Heisman balloting. Just my opinion.

I told my rabid Duck friend after the first semi that I hope if the Dawgs are destined to win their game, that they do it more comfortably than TCU did over Michigan. What a laugh. Ohio State had Georgia scouted well and came in with an unbelievable game plan. My congratulations to Ryan Day and his staff. I remember telling my football chat mates near the end of the game that were Stetson Bennett to engineer a TD on Georgia's last possession, he would remain a legend on that campus for as long as any Georgia partisan in the crowd at the Benz remains alive. The guy plays huge in crunch time. His only fault on that drive is that he scored too soon, giving C.J. Stroud 50 some seconds to work with. And that almost bit the Dawgs in the rear. For now, I'll gladly take the win, pour some bourbon to celebrate, and look forward to the Dawgs vs. the Frogs in LA next week. Oh and honesty compels me to admit that as a toddler, my most dear imaginary friends were a bunch of Purple Frogs that I had named and played with a lot. Now I hope that doesn't come back to bite me next week.