Duck Fan 76

It's possible, but the most likely explanation is Bo. But then that's what would make it a great fake out. DL knows Georgia, what offense advantage does he have with Georgia in ball hawk mode? Quick passes and RPO?

To be fair the new defense is keyed on creating turnovers so it's somewhat of a double edged sword. Reading some of the interview it seems like DL was critical of players trying to create something from nothing. That can be a young RB with a spin move and poor ball security or a QB forcing passes into good coverage. If it's Bo then it's bad news that needs to be corrected quickly. Forcing balls in close games was one of his bad habits. I'm hoping this is DL trying to fake out Smart's scouting.

Here's DLs comment from the second scrimmage ".. Most of the decisions that ended up being bad decisions today were somebody trying to make something out of nothing and trying to create play when they didn’t need to. A bad play turned into a worse play and that’s something we have to do a better job of.” That sounds like Bo is struggling to form new habits. If that isn't cleaned up by game time then Oregon 21, Georgia 38. If Bo can learn to hold his powder and DL stays aggressive then Oregon 35 Georgia 31 (this is my prediction)

I think Georgia will work to establish the run in the first half and will struggle to score more than two touchdowns. I think Oregon will play an aggressive offense against a great Georgia defense and will score two or three touchdowns in the half. Yes Im predicting Oregon goes into the second half nearly tied or leading. Smart will make second half adjustments opening up his passing routes and Georgia will begin to make some gains in the second half. Likely two or three more touchdowns. If DL adjusts well to a fired up Georgia defense then Oregon could have an amazing second half capitalising against an overly aggressive Georgia defense. Three to five touchdowns. If Oregon plays conservative to keep its lead Oregon scores once in the second half. Bottom line, close at the half and whoever keeps or takes the offensive momentum in the second half wins the game.

Agreed, it was painful to watch. I for one am truly ready for connecting on those down the field shots and runs that break through the first layer!

Know Thy Enemy: The Oregon Ducks WWW.DAWGSPORTS.COM Georgia has twelve regular season football opponents in 2022. And you should know about them. Every. Single... Some interesting analysis, though they missed a few key points on us. They are correct that they have the edge on recruited talent but it's a week 1 game so it'll be our 1s against their 1s so that erodes their advantage a bit.

Nebraska coach Scott Frost says offensive linemen vomit 15-20 times each practice WWW.USATODAY.COM Nebraska coach Scott Frost describes new offensive line coach Donovan Raiola's methods as inducing "probably 15-20 vomits every day." I'm all for hard work but this is not smart. Makes me thankful for the current Oregon training culture which promotes hard work but joy in the game.

AK gave an interview here at 7:28 where he addressed this. Seems that they are looking for O-line recruits with a longer developmental upside. He commented that some of the O-line players that look great in high school cap out as sophomores. He also said that the focus is on quality players and that they aren't going to take 6 just to get 6. If the recruit quality isn't there they will take less. I agree that as the season develops the performance of the O-line will change the conversation in recruiting and Oregon can flip their targets likely based on AK's skill at developing talent (and obviously his skill as a recruiter). The other opportunity is the portal as O-line players from other schools may want/need to transfer to enhance their draft status. With Oregon loosing it's starting O-line next year there will be an opportunity for excellent linemen to transfer in and compete for starting positions. The game has changed and Oregon is always looking to make the best moves for Oregon.

Agreed, this is where KD needs to be inside the opposing DC's OODA loop. This is why I think Oregon is going to have a special season. There are plenty of teams that underperform the level of their recruited talent but I don't think this staff will be one. With the staffs open communication atmosphere that Fisch wrote about Oregon's play callers can win the chess match more often than not and put the talent in the position needed to highlight the talent on the field. On that note it would be great to have one of the writers do a piece on Adrian Klemm. We know he's a great recruiter but I for one am interested on how he does with player development. I went back and re-watched this interview from AK in April where he talks about re-tooling the Oregon O-line. There are some great details here relevant to this conversation.

I 100% agree with your analysis on the poor pass protection problem. To be fair to the O-line MC recruited the O-line to win the push and that usually means you get athletes who are designed to generate power in the root and not on the move (less hand fighting technique). Long developing pass protection is mostly about better technique and good footwork and the ability to read and scheme the D-line to keep the wall in place. This is a potential Achilles heel to Oregon's offense this season and Georgia will be the day 1 test of tests. I would expect Connerly to get some game time for the coaches to get a full speed evaluation on him at some point but maybe not against Georgia unless the O-line is really having trouble. If he's the best solution to the problem then I'm sure he will get situational play time and extra coaching on the pass protection technique for that package. It's my sincere hope that Oregon has been addressing this issue with the new offense by teaching a pass protection technique that will work with a less mobile O-line. Otherwise Georgia will be growing grass in the QB's facemask all game. The other side of the equation will be in playcalling that punishes a collapsing edge or double teaming with tightends (not always the best option as it creates a DB numbers advantage). I'm certain DL caught this in watching last years film and he's implemented measures to balance it, I just really hope he put solid plaster in this hole or it could be real ugly. It's my "hope" that Oregon's offense is like water that flows around the obstacles and finds it's way to the endzone. Chip had that and it was super hard to stop and scheme against. Watching Oregon's sledgehammer approach last year against Utah was SUPER FRUSTRATING.

Agreed, you said it! With this offense and these weapons any Oregon QB this year should be able to at least meet Justin's senior numbers. If that happens Oregon will dominate the PAC. If Bo hits a good stride and is looking comfortable in the offense then the second half of the Eastern Washington game is an opportunity to see whoever the coaches believe #2 and #3 are. I would think if Bo plays 4 quarters against Eastern Washington then that means the coaches aren't seeing what they want to see and are giving him the game time to figure it out. That would be a bad sign for Bo.

I completely agree with your analysis on this. We are going to learn a lot from the Georgia game about how all of the starters will fare this season and especially Bo. That being said Georgia is an uphill slog for sure and while Oregon is absolutely capable of winning in Atlanta the pure matchup favors Georgia. If Oregon wins against Georgia with Bo starting he will get the benefit of any coaching doubt for the remainder of the season. E.g. Brown beating Ohio State. If Oregon looses but Bo looks competent then we will need to wait for Game 3 against BYU to know what is really going on. Not to diss Eastern Washington but Oregon can't measure it's starters in that game. BYU is good enough to really see how the positions are executing in the new scheme. The more complicated scenario is what happens if Oregon's offense looks anemic against Georgia (I think this is unlikely but still possible). There are too many variables including an amazing Georgia defense to totally blame Bo. If he looks better against BYU but struggles I would expect DL takes a long look at shaking things up to get the season rocking. The truth is Bo is the expected starter because most believe he gives the Ducks the best chance to win games due to his game experience. DL is very very smart and I don't think he's going to miss much in the QB competition. It would be monstrously unfair to the receivers, o-line, etc to not put the best player forward in any position. The investment strategy is understandable given Oregon's long term potential for the next four years but Oregon's seniors want to win as many games as possible so best player plays should be the mantra.

This was a great article! The subtle point being made that the coaches trust each other enough to learn from each other speaks really well of the staff. This team is shaping up to be special but we can guarantee there will be some serious bumps along the road. Having a coaching staff that can provide constructive feedback to one another that doesn't hit an ego wall is going to be a major advantage for Oregon. Even better modeling that behavior will lead to athletes that can do the same. DL's IQ is well known but this staff has a chance to be greater than it's single best asset or even the sum of its parts.

That is certainly a fair comment. Sorry you got rolled over by the bandwagon, if you do prove right then it's likely we will see Thompson this year at some point. My point was simply that when I give his film the eye test I see him rushing balls in there to create momentum from thin air. If he's doing that this season we're in real trouble but if he gets the reads right and is throwing most of the time with solid footing he looks very capable. We SHOULD remember if Bo looks awesome to send plenty of love to the rest of the offense that makes that possible for him.

There are pretty serious differences between a college QB and an MLB pitcher. What I mean by that is that a college QBs stats are comingled with the stats of every other player on the field. Stats and baseball go hand in hand like peanut butter and chocolate but it's just not true for QBs. The reason is that each pitch in baseball is a duel between the pitcher and the batter. There are also enough games played to get enough of a sample size to draw relevant conclusions from the resulting statistics. Football is a completely different game especially for the QB as the outcome of each pass depends heavily on most of the other players on the field. There might be a few players in that moment that have no chance to impact the outcome of the pass but most of the players can. Especially the offensive line and when I watch Auburn film with Bo I see pretty terrible O-line play. That put Auburn in the position to throw in a hurry alot. I also don't see a coaching staff that makes the schematic adjustments needed for poor play at scrimmage. I don't know how Bo will do this year to be honest but I don't think playing for KD was the reason he transferred to Oregon. I think KD called Bo and said the plan was to install his offense with Oregon's playmakers BEHIND Oregon's current O-line. The first thing Bo did when he got to Oregon was take the O-line out to dinner. What do you think they talked about? I'm just guessing here but I would bet a Beer that he told them they were the reason he transferred to Oregon. He can't say that in public of course as it would be deeply disrespectful to the Auburn O-line. So in closing I don't buy the stats argument and looking at film I see a gunslinger who has what it takes to dish the ball to playmakers that are really excited to make magic happen. We will know a lot more after Georgia.

I 100% agree! ...still it would be nice if some of the Oregon lineman would get some NIL love.

Confidence isn't always a good thing. It's a warning that Oregon needs to keep up the recruiting fight but the salient point is that Moore and Dickey are a potent combination for the 2023 class.

I also agree with you that we can only do so much with rules in the Pac but it's an area where we COULD choose to lead and get us ahead. I've said in other posts that PAC-12 officiating is a low paying business composed of super-fans. We could change that for peanuts and send a statement that the PAC-12 is innovative and a leader. It's within the PAC's power to pay its officials a full time salary. Using better technology and a professional officiating crew enhances the game for the players/coaches/fans. Nobody wins when officials make mistakes or just look a bit silly getting flustered in the game. Think of the brand value the PAC-12 gets if officials in the BIG-10 make a mistake the broadcasters spend 10 minutes talking about how that doesn't happen in the PAC-12 now. Sure pretty quickly the BIG-10 and SEC will also pay officials but people will remember that the PAC-12 innovated on that. Oregon certainly didn't invent the spread, but everyone remembers Oregon took the spread into prime-time! That has a lasting brand effect. Another rule the PAC could implement is they could force the schools to spend more money on facilities to stay in the PAC. Why? Better facilities promotes better player development and safety for the players. That would be the "pay to stay" rule. Super unpopular with the college presidents I'm sure.

In general I agree that the size of your state certainly matters but it's absolutely not the whole story. Here is a list of State population figures. Oregon with 4.2 million (most of them usually driving in front of me on highway 101 it seems) is ranked middle of the pack at 27/50. Note that Oklahoma is below us in population and is a media draw mostly because of who they play and their storied history. Iowa is also below us. Number 4 on that list with 19.8 million viewers is New York. Plenty of football fans in New York but no serious football schools, sorry Syracuse. New Jersey has 9.2 million viewers and Rutgers still sucks. As far as college football recruiting and media markets New York & New Jersey have a combined region of over 29 million. That's a huge area competing with Texas and is producing lots of talent and viewers with no major local representation with College Football. Clearly there's more to this than population advantage.

Great article Daze! I love the details the media provides on the athletes but to me more coverage on the coaches is warranted. The coaching staff under DL is what really has me excited for this upcoming season. I REALLY want to see how Oregon's staff does with developing this talented roster. To me that's the most important metric for the program and its future.

It's not just the players that have to get used to the new rules but the coaches and officials as well. CFB doesn't have salaried officials instead opting to pay a referee fee to what amounts to "super-fans" that just love the game so much they officiate for very little compensation. Looking at ways the PAC can help improve the game might include hiring a full time cadre of officials like the NFL. Full time means they are honing the craft in the off season and available to officiate spring games and fall scrimmages. When you think about it everyone wins with peerless officiating. That full time cadre could also be charged with reviewing in game injuries and providing reports to the conference on how to make the game safer for the athletes.

That certainly is true based on how the broadcasters have traditionally sold ad time in regions but there has always been a national advertising block for coast to coast broadcasts and those are the big money makers for the major networks. The Oregon/Georgia game is a national broadcast on ABC (ESPN) and that game is BIG money (no pun intended). Your point I think is that the LA media market being the second largest in the country is more valuable than Oregon. In the local advertisement sense they are more valuable as LA advertisers are likely to spend more to buy ad time during UCLA, USC than Oregon advertisers are for Oregon games. That LA market buy is worth a lot more revenue to Fox sports than Oregon is. For the national brand interest you have to look at out of area fans and general football fan interest. This is certainly how revenues were projected (and likely how Fox got its numbers) but that model is fading a bit for Oregon (explained at the bottom of this post). UCLA is a media draw during basketball season but UCLA football isn't worth what it once was. USC media value is getting a bump due to the LR hire. Obviously a CFB team's media value isn't static. Sure it has a floor value based on die hard fans but plenty of CFB fans will choose to only watch the marque games for their teams. That percentage is much higher for CFB teams that have a disappointing season. The reason ESPN is interested in the PAC media contract is they are doing a more nuanced analysis of current media value than what I described above. When the professionals look at media rights it's always in a broadcast competition scenario. Meaning when Fox compares it's west coast broadcast time against potential PAC content it comes up with one number based on what it already has planned. Meaning the payout has a cap as Fox already has good offerings on the west coast (like the BIG 10 games that we will watch on the WC). ESPN has a different number based on their program dynamics. The reason I think the dynamics are shifting for Oregon is that they are attempting to position themselves as a national brand and NOT a state of Oregon brand. The method is simple really, recruit across the entire country and play big game matchups with plenty of entertainment value. From a win loss perspective what was Oregon thinking scheduling travel games against Auburn, Ohio State, Georgia? These are low probability season wreckers. They are also HUGE ratings draws. Some of the future schedules include Oklahoma State, Baylor, Michigan State, Ohio State. The problem is that Oregon's schedule is being locked in too far in advance. The Texas Tech games made sense when schedule, but probably not now. What ESPN has in its favor is a PAC that needs a good media contract and I think that part of the negotiation is to figure out how ESPN can maximize the PAC media value. Easier said than done but if the PAC wants football revenues to rise then they need to figure out how to have more exciting games (competitive programs) and for larger audiences. With the NCAA collapsing into near-irrelevance a good question is what rules does the PAC currently have that are standing in the way of more competitive football programs?

I think Utah is the most important game for Oregon's season but Georgia is the most important game for Oregon's decade. The two losses to Utah last year were an embarrassment at multiple levels to the program. I'm not sure MC was capable of making the adjustments needed in game or in the off season to get past Utah. DL comes in clean without the ego momentum that caused those losses. He and his staff are acutely aware of what caused Oregon to get smacked around TWICE in one season by Utah. For Oregon to be considered the PAC leader we need to control the Utah game and show we have evolved. If we go into the Utah game with one loss at Georgia (assuming we played well in that game) we are still in the national conversation with a win at Utah and demonstrated growth in the season. From a pure talent (recruiting history) point of view Georgia outmatches Oregon everywhere except linebacker. That means that all things being equal Oregon should loose to Georgia. All things being equal Oregon "SHOULD" have lost to Ohio State in the shoe, but we didn't. That was a national statement that Oregon can beat the best teams in the country. The question in the back of coaches and media minds around that game was did Oregon win? or did Ohio State loose? We love to say things like every game matters, or a win is a win but when it comes to ranking teams in a season or programs for recruiting not every win count is equal. If Oregon wins in Atlanta then the evidence sways the argument away from Ohio State lost to Oregon can win and win in tough locations. The impact of that idea settling into the minds of sports media on the East Coast (especially the SEC) would be Oregon's Clemson moment. At that point Oregon goes into every recruiting battle on equal footing with the opposing programs. In fact I believe we would go into recruiting battles with the upper hand. So in my opinion Utah is the season, but Georgia is the decade.

I agree, I think Oregon in Atlanta is an expected loss but if they play very well they are in the conversation (assuming Georgia doesn't self destruct). Oregon has the talent advantage in every other game scheduled including Utah. Last years losses to Utah were about coaching and player prep. From what we can see Oregon is putting the work in to open up the throttle on all sides of the ball. If Oregon can get talent in space they should outmatch Utah on offense. If Oregon's defense is healthy they already outmatch Utah. If Oregon can coach its special teams then the roster depth should outmatch on special teams. That isn't meant to be a dig on Utah but recruiting matters and Oregon has been dominant there. DL is now a head coach and that has a different skill set than DC. A college head coach in this era is a very very tough job and it's tough for all 12 months of the year. DL is putting in the work and he's killing it in the off season. Let's hope he and his team can kill it during the season. If so then like I said Oregon is really only outmatched in 1 scheduled game and we will see what bowl season brings. DL has a history of excellence that can't be ignored and in my experience, excellence like that has a way generating even more excellence. The guy is driven to not just win but to be the very best. That desire isn't uncommon but it's very hard for folks to maintain that motor for as long as he has and keep rising to the top like he has. He's won my support and I'm very excited to sit in Autzen and watch some real magic happen.

Everybody loves USC Or at least that seems to be the theme from most sportswriters. It's the logical narrative bias assuming that a storied program has a destiny. Reality is "no fate but what we make". Lincoln Riley is a good coach and he definitely deserves his due. On the other hand Oklahoma is a football machine with access to some of the best recruits in college football. DL is of course unproven as a head coach but as an assistant he is considered one of the best in college sports (which is why he got the Oregon job). USC last season was an unmitigated disaster. They have poorly recruited in recent history (though LR is turning that around). USC in the field isn't just a talent gap in the playoff discussion. Their program culture has been dysfunctional and it would take a miracle for LR to turn that around in 1 season. It takes time to reform an athletes mindset. Oregon on the other hand has the talent already in hand. The culture however came off the tracks at the end of last year, possibly because coaches were looking to leave? Or perhaps the culture had flaws that got exposed. The Oregon XO schemes were mostly a disaster last season(s). MC can recruit but he generally struggles with the XO's especially live game adjustments. DL has a lot of work ahead of him for sure and he can't build his team entirely in 1 season but he is soooooo much further ahead of LR that USC isn't going to really have a chance in the PAC ever (maybe in 3 years in the BIG). Utah is Oregon's only competition and I generally expect DL's staff and Oregon's players to adjust from last year and not embarrass themselves as MC's team did. The article linked above seems to be vastly underestimating DL who has shown nothing but executive excellence and an adaptive mindset in his short time at Oregon. I don't expect DL to be perfect this season by any measure but his team is so much ahead of the rest of the PAC that if he is able to keep players healthy, motivated and developing Oregon is easily in the running for a one loss season. USC will be likely to get to a bowl, but no further. LR has heavy lifting ahead of him to fix a decade of mismanagement at USC. I really can't say who the better coach will be honestly and judging by the season outcome isn't fair to LR. This is a question that will need to be asked again in a few years. If however we grade organizations (a better metric IMHO) Oregon is clearly on top, no question. USC has so much work ahead of them, if LR is up for the job they could be back in the conversation in maybe 3 years. Assuming the USC alumni can keep their noses out of LRs business that long.