At Last! A Positive Take on the Pac-10's New Media Deal

[Jon Joseph]

Washington State president and Pac-12 executive committee member, Kirk (Sergeant) Schulz (sorry for the dose of Chris Berman)  has come up (in an interview on UTube) with a very logical take on why the Pac-10 new media deal negotiations drag on.

 

First, he points out that the last 5 months have likely been the worst time to negotiate a new media deal in the last 6 years. (Good call but why did the conference let the B12 jump ahead?)

 

Second, ESPN and Amazon, having recently gone through a series of employee layoffs do not want to rush to the market with news of a new multi-millions of dollars media deal. (Apple has laid no employees off.)

 

Schulz is on the front line and a most reliable source who is in frequent contact with the commissioner, George Kliavkoff. 

 

Schulz also says that he knows of no Pac-10 team ready to jump ship.

 

Nice to have a ray of sunshine instead of a bunch of unsourced rumors. Unlike the good Sergeant, this Schulz knows something and not nothing.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 10, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[NJDuck]

On 5/10/2023 at 5:10 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Washington State president and Pac-12 executive committee member, Kirk (Sergeant) Schulz (sorry for the dose of Chris Berman)  has come up (in an interview on UTube) with a very logical take on why the Pac-10 new media deal negotiations drag on.

 

First, he points out that the last 5 months have likely been the worst time to negotiate a new media deal in the last 6 years. (Good call but why did the conference let the B12 jump ahead?)

 

Second, ESPN and Amazon, having recently gone through a series of employee layoffs do not want to rush to the market with news of a new multi-millions of dollars media deal. (Apple has laid no employees off.)

 

Schulz is on the front line and a most reliable source who is in frequent contact with the commissioner, George Kliavkoff. 

 

Schulz also says that he knows of no Pac-10 team ready to jump ship.

 

Nice to have a ray of sunshine instead of a bunch of unsourced rumors. Unlike the good Sergeant, this Schulz knows something and not nothing.

 

Which goes along what Michelle Bodkin brings up in her article.

 

Unpacking Latest On Pac-12 Media Rights Negotiations

KSLSPORTS.COM

---

It's been a while since I last addressed the topic of the ongoing Pac-12 media rights negotiations. From my perspective, not much has changed.

 

[David Marsh]

On 5/10/2023 at 2:10 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Good call but why did the conference let the B12 jump ahead?)

I think the Big-12 jumped ahead for four reasons. 

 

1. They had their crisis a year earlier with Texas and Oklahoma announcing their departure to the SEC. So they were already living in crisis management mode. 

 

2. George K didn't become commissioner until the Texas and Oklahoma crisis was in full swing. The conference didn't try and pounce on the reminants of the big-12 for better or worse at the time. I think George had a ton of crazy Larry Scott stuff to unravel that we don't even know existed. There also didn't seem to be much of a desire from any PAC member schools to scavenge the big-12 either. 

 

3. In a swing of desperation the big-12 added new members, they had some decent options due to their geography. 

 

4. USC in particular lied to George K a out being satisfied in the PAC. Sure the moaned and groaned about their share not being what they wanted but from everything I've read they just wanted a better media deal, and unequal shares too, but when asked they gave no indication that they were planning on leaving. 

 

I feel right now the PAC has far more patience than the big-12. The big-12 doesn't have a second set of teams that have a major audience draw like the PAC. The PAC lost the LA schools, which hurts a lot but Oregon is a big national brand and Washington has Seattle. That is leaps and bounds ahead of what the big-12 was initially left with. 

 

I do feel that the new media contract has gone for too long and I do feel there have been many missed opportunities along the way. I also feel that the big-12 was eager to sign any new media deal they could go declare victory. I don't think the PAC feels that desperate. 

 

But I would love to hear SDSU is joining the PAC for starters. 

[jrw]

Speaking of Larry Scott’s legacy, whatever happened to the “missing” few-hundred-thousand in ad overpayments? 

[Nevada Dawg]

Having to tout Seattle as the major media market isn't saying much for the number of eyes drawn to the PAC. That's why the addition of SDSU as a link to Southern Cali viewers is so important. Also, there are huge numbers of people in the SF-Oakland-San Jose market as well. But can we ever get Cal or Stanford to invest in a major way to a football program?

 

Maybe It is my having lived in the SEC  footprint for more than 40 years, but I have never seen a major metro area apathetic about college football as the Bay Area. I'm sure interest must have perked up years ago when Stanford was really relevant, but that seems to have waned. Any insights here Hayward Duck?

[Rufus]

One thing I find interesting about conference realignment…..

 

When Texas and Oklahoma announced they were leaving the Big 12 to join the SEC, the Big 12 publicly attacked the American Athletic Conference. Not once did they publicly attack the SEC. 
 

When USC and UCLA announced they were leaving the PAC 12 to join the B1G, the PAC 12 publicly attacked the Big 12. Not  once did they publicly attack the B1G. 
 

The upheaval in college sports is from the B1G and SEC consolidating power, but not once are they attacked by the conferences who are losing money because of these actions.  Instead, the attacks go to other conferences who are or at least are perceived as being weaker.  
 

The PAC 12 might be able to hold out and not lose anyone to the Big 12.  I don’t doubt that.  But the PAC 12 will only exist in its current form as long as the B1G wants it to exist in its current form.  Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State might see benefit to remaining in the PAC if the B1G hold off on poaching Oregon, Washington, Stanford or Cal.  However, there is no doubt in my mind that Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal will jump to the B1G if the B1G wants to add any or all 4.  The only thing stopping the PAC 12 from becoming the Mountain West Plus is the future ambitions of the B1G.  
 

Yet, the PAC 12 will not dare attack the B1G.  At least 4 of the 10 are hoping for a golden ticket to the B1G.  
 

My thoughts on where things stand…the PAC 12 gets their media rights contract without losing anymore teams…for now.  The contract will be for 4-6 years.  This contract will be the last contract in which the 10 schools remain together.  However, adding SDSU and SMU now will allow the PAC to not be in full crisis mode when the B1G come calling in a few years. The B1G will want to finalize its western flank before turning its attention to the southeast/ACC around 2030.  
 

Step 1 - PAC 12 signs a 4-6 year media rights contract. 
 

Step 2 - PAC 12 expands with G5 schools to stabilize. 
 

Step 3 - B1G integrates USC and UCLA into the conference.  
 

Step 4 -  Near the end of the decade, the B1G announces the addition of whatever combination of Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal that the B1G wants. 
 

Step 5 - The PAC either loses the 4 corner schools to the Big 12, or there is a full on merger of the PAC 12 and Big 12 minus Stanford and Cal. Stanford and Cal either are wanted by the B1G or they go independent.  
 

Step 6 - The B1G integrates the new western schools into the B1G by 2030.  
 

Step 7 - It’s now 2030 and that ACC GOR is only six years away from ending. Time for the B1G and SEC to pounce.  Both conferences are laying out their next moves. 
 

Step 8 - Sometime in the early 2030s, the SEC and B1G both add whoever they want from the ACC. A couple ACC schools may get to choose which conference to join.  A few ACC schools will only be wanted by one or the other.  
 

Step 9 - 2036.  The new look SEC and B1G.  The remains of the ACC either add G5 schools or consolidate into the Big 12.  
 

Step 10 - The P2 rule over all.  Playoff rules and NIL rules will work to their favor.   

 

Wildcard:  Notre Dame.  Remain independent and lose out on millions of dollars or join the B1G. 

 

Logically, this is the only end game scenario I can see happening. 

Edited May 11, 2023 by Rufus

[The Kamikaze Kid]

On 5/11/2023 at 6:17 AM, Rufus said:

One thing I find interesting about conference realignment

I like your domino theory. Here's mine. First, we have to pretend that the Pac presidents want to prioritize athletic viability rather than academic superiority.

 

Step 01. Pac signs whatever short term deal they can get. Being front runners in streaming may payoff big down the road.

Step 02. Pac bring in SD St and UNLV doing their best to fill the void left by USC and UCLA leaving.

Step 03. Bring in Texas schools from B12 (TCU, Baylor, TT and Houston)

Step 04. Sign much better media deal closer to B10 and SEC territory.

 

If Utah and Colorado leave for B12, bring in Fresno St and maybe even San Jose St for an even tighter hold on California. This new conference would then dominate the pacific NW, and Bay Area, be competitive in SoCal, own the SW and share Texas with the SEC.

 

The new and improved Pac would be a solid third place conference with many competitive teams in the big three sports and stretch across three time zones in great markets further improving media exposure. Of course this would only happen if athletic relevance was a priority of the Pac presidents. Unfortunately, they seem content to think of themselves as the Ivy league of the west coast. This is why ultimately the UO should pursue joining the B10.

 

[Charles Fischer]

While I am resigned to eventually joining the B1G in six years, I think there is an excellent chance we stay in the Pac-12.

 

--If Oregon gets a larger share of post-season revenues from the Ducks' participation.

--If Oregon gets a slightly larger payout to begin with...since we have the 7th largest college audience globally.

--If the new 12 Playoff proves that it is much easier to make the Playoff in the Pac-12 vs. the B1G.

--If our total revenues from the above makes a "reasonable survival" possible without joining the B1G.

 

[Rufus]

I don’t think staying in the PAC is viable unless we have no choice.  
 

Here are my concerns:

 

1.  The B1G just announced conference teams are now no longer required to play P5 non-conference games.  Combine this with the fact that west coast recruiting is already covered with away games at USC and UCLA, it’s a safe bet few - if any - B1G teams will want to schedule Oregon.  The SEC is likely expanding to a 9 game schedule and several schools already have a rivalry game with an ACC school. It’s a safe bet few - if any - SEC schools will want to schedule Oregon in a non-conference game. 
 

2.  Replacing USC and UCLA with G5 schools will weaken the perception of the PAC 12.  Having few - if any - B1G or SEC teams interested in a non-conference game with the Ducks will weaken the perception of the total schedule.  Very few at large CFP bids will come from the PAC. 
 

3.  The PAC 12 Champion is only guaranteed a spot in the CFP for two years. There is nothing to say the rules won’t change to benefit the B1G and SEC.  I can see the P2 making deals with G5 conferences to pay them X amount of dollars for regular season away games in return for agreeing to whatever the B1G and SEC want to see happen to the CFP after the first two years.  
 

4.  The SEC and B1G will figure out how to monopolize NIL deals with the major sponsors.  “Hey Fortune 500 companies, you want to brand yourself nationwide in college football?  Ok, sign this exclusive NIL agreement with the B1G.  You can decide which players you want to work with on this, but they must come from our conference.”

 

5.  The B1G and SEC will become larger and more powerful when they raid the top brands and markets in the ACC.  Even if Oregon sticks it out in the P12, we will fall further behind from this fact alone. 
 

The good news in all of this is that Oregon is the 7th largest fan base in college football. The B1G is very likely to add us at some point.  This does not end well if any other scenario plays out.  

[Charles Fischer]

Rufus....I am not wild about your dire take on this, but you really back it up with sound logic.  Damn fine posts.

 

In the meantime I am shouting "La-La-La," closing my eyes, and thinking how it will all work out for Oregon...and that is my fantasy!

 

But Oregon will be fine regardless, down the road.  (We may have to join the truck-stop conference to retain all the Olympic sports--I get it)

 

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/11/2023 at 12:58 PM, Rufus said:

I don’t think staying in the PAC is viable unless we have no choice.  
 

Here are my concerns:

 

1.  The B1G just announced conference teams are now no longer required to play P5 non-conference games.  Combine this with the fact that west coast recruiting is already covered with away games at USC and UCLA, it’s a safe bet few - if any - B1G teams will want to schedule Oregon.  The SEC is likely expanding to a 9 game schedule and several schools already have a rivalry game with an ACC school. It’s a safe bet few - if any - SEC schools will want to schedule Oregon in a non-conference game. 
 

2.  Replacing USC and UCLA with G5 schools will weaken the perception of the PAC 12.  Having few - if any - B1G or SEC teams interested in a non-conference game with the Ducks will weaken the perception of the total schedule.  Very few at large CFP bids will come from the PAC. 
 

3.  The PAC 12 Champion is only guaranteed a spot in the CFP for two years. There is nothing to say the rules won’t change to benefit the B1G and SEC.  I can see the P2 making deals with G5 conferences to pay them X amount of dollars for regular season away games in return for agreeing to whatever the B1G and SEC want to see happen to the CFP after the first two years.  
 

4.  The SEC and B1G will figure out how to monopolize NIL deals with the major sponsors.  “Hey Fortune 500 companies, you want to brand yourself nationwide in college football?  Ok, sign this exclusive NIL agreement with the B1G.  You can decide which players you want to work with on this, but they must come from our conference.”

 

5.  The B1G and SEC will become larger and more powerful when they raid the top brands and markets in the ACC.  Even if Oregon sticks it out in the P12, we will fall further behind from this fact alone. 
 

The good news in all of this is that Oregon is the 7th largest fan base in college football. The B1G is very likely to add us at some point.  This does not end well if any other scenario plays out.  

Weaken the perception? Yes. And it may hurt seeding in the 12-team playoff field but will not prevent the conference champion from making the field.

 

Perception will mean far less in a real playoff that is replacing the BCS x 2. 

 

Terrific take.

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/11/2023 at 1:49 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Weaken the perception? Yes. And it may hurt seeding in the 12-team playoff field but will not prevent the conference champion from making the field.

 

Perception will mean far less in a real playoff that is replacing the BCS x 2. 

 

Terrific take.

I do think the playoff will go to 16 teams in 2016 with no first-round byes and the seeding based on Committee rankings without giving preference to conference champions. And I see the B1G and SEC routinely sending 3 teams to the playoff.

 

But the playoff will not shut out the other 3 P5 champions and because of politics will reserve a spot for a G5 team.

 

The bigger issue, in my opinion, is how piggish will the B1G and SEC be when it comes to splitting what should be a huge amount of money with 16 teams in the field and with ESPN losing its exclusive broadcast rights

 

Of course, the B1G/SEC could try to go it alone and play a 2 conference championship but if they decide to do this a legion of anti-trust lawyers will be headed their way.

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/11/2023 at 10:22 AM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

I like your domino theory. Here's mine. First, we have to pretend that the Pac presidents want to prioritize athletic viability rather than academic superiority.

 

Step 01. Pac signs whatever short term deal they can get. Being front runners in streaming may payoff big down the road.

Step 02. Pac bring in SD St and UNLV doing their best to fill the void left by USC and UCLA leaving.

Step 03. Bring in Texas schools from B12 (TCU, Baylor, TT and Houston)

Step 04. Sign much better media deal closer to B10 and SEC territory.

 

If Utah and Colorado leave for B12, bring in Fresno St and maybe even San Jose St for an even tighter hold on California. This new conference would then dominate the pacific NW, and Bay Area, be competitive in SoCal, own the SW and share Texas with the SEC.

 

The new and improved Pac would be a solid third place conference with many competitive teams in the big three sports and stretch across three time zones in great markets further improving media exposure. Of course this would only happen if athletic relevance was a priority of the Pac presidents. Unfortunately, they seem content to think of themselves as the Ivy league of the west coast. This is why ultimately the UO should pursue joining the B10.

 

I believe the B12 teams you mentioned are locked into the B12 media deal and will not be able to leave without paying a significant exit fee.

 

I entirely agree that academic snobbery has to face financial reality. The conference cannot double down on once rejecting B12 orphans over the issue of academics.

Edited May 11, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[The Kamikaze Kid]

On 5/11/2023 at 10:58 AM, Jon Joseph said:

I believe the B12 teams you mentioned are locked into the B12 media deal and will not be able to leave without paying a significant exit fee.

Yes. I should have clarified my steps. Short term, sign whatever deal you can and bring in SD St and UNLV now. THEN talk with B12 Texas schools about joining the Pac after both media deals expire. As Charles mentioned, it would be in the Pac's best interest to keep UO happy with enough payout that they don't seek out a better pond to swim in elsewhere.

[noDucknewby]

On 5/11/2023 at 9:58 AM, Rufus said:

I don’t think staying in the PAC is viable unless we have no choice.  
 

Here are my concerns:

 

1.  The B1G just announced conference teams are now no longer required to play P5 non-conference games.  Combine this with the fact that west coast recruiting is already covered with away games at USC and UCLA, it’s a safe bet few - if any - B1G teams will want to schedule Oregon.  The SEC is likely expanding to a 9 game schedule and several schools already have a rivalry game with an ACC school. It’s a safe bet few - if any - SEC schools will want to schedule Oregon in a non-conference game. 
 

2.  Replacing USC and UCLA with G5 schools will weaken the perception of the PAC 12.  Having few - if any - B1G or SEC teams interested in a non-conference game with the Ducks will weaken the perception of the total schedule.  Very few at large CFP bids will come from the PAC. 
 

3.  The PAC 12 Champion is only guaranteed a spot in the CFP for two years. There is nothing to say the rules won’t change to benefit the B1G and SEC.  I can see the P2 making deals with G5 conferences to pay them X amount of dollars for regular season away games in return for agreeing to whatever the B1G and SEC want to see happen to the CFP after the first two years.  
 

4.  The SEC and B1G will figure out how to monopolize NIL deals with the major sponsors.  “Hey Fortune 500 companies, you want to brand yourself nationwide in college football?  Ok, sign this exclusive NIL agreement with the B1G.  You can decide which players you want to work with on this, but they must come from our conference.”

 

5.  The B1G and SEC will become larger and more powerful when they raid the top brands and markets in the ACC.  Even if Oregon sticks it out in the P12, we will fall further behind from this fact alone. 
 

The good news in all of this is that Oregon is the 7th largest fan base in college football. The B1G is very likely to add us at some point.  This does not end well if any other scenario plays out.  

Spot on IMHO.  I'd also add that teams outside the Power 2 may have a hard time hanging on to successful coaches when the new TV $ starts rolling in.  Assuming Lanning is our guy, what happens when Purdue or Northwestern offers him $15-$20 million?  This may seem far-fetched, but brace yourselves for a new round of inflation in coaches' salaries.  I've said all along that eventually the money gap becomes a talent gap.

 

Personally I'm really hoping that the P12 stays together for this TV contract, adds a couple of members and let's the dust settle.  We'll know a lot more about the CFP and the college football environment the next time around.

Edited May 11, 2023 by noDucknewby

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/11/2023 at 2:13 PM, noDucknewby said:

Spot on IMHO.  I'd also add that teams outside the Power 2 may have a hard time hanging on to successful coaches when the new TV $ starts rolling in.  Assuming Lanning is our guy, what happens when Purdue or Northwestern offers him $15-$20 million?  This may seem far-fetched, but brace yourselves for a new round of inflation in coaches' salaries.  I've said all along that eventually the money gap becomes a talent gap.

 

Personally I'm really hoping that the P12 stays together for this TV contract, adds a couple of members and let's the dust settle.  We'll know a lot more about the CFP and the college football environment the next time around.

A number of Pac-12 quality coaches in a number of sports have already been poached by the B1G, SEC, and Texas soon to be in the SEC.

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/11/2023 at 9:17 AM, Rufus said:

One thing I find interesting about conference realignment…..

 

When Texas and Oklahoma announced they were leaving the Big 12 to join the SEC, the Big 12 publicly attacked the American Athletic Conference. Not once did they publicly attack the SEC. 
 

When USC and UCLA announced they were leaving the PAC 12 to join the B1G, the PAC 12 publicly attacked the Big 12. Not  once did they publicly attack the B1G. 
 

The upheaval in college sports is from the B1G and SEC consolidating power, but not once are they attacked by the conferences who are losing money because of these actions.  Instead, the attacks go to other conferences who are or at least are perceived as being weaker.  
 

The PAC 12 might be able to hold out and not lose anyone to the Big 12.  I don’t doubt that.  But the PAC 12 will only exist in its current form as long as the B1G wants it to exist in its current form.  Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State might see benefit to remaining in the PAC if the B1G hold off on poaching Oregon, Washington, Stanford or Cal.  However, there is no doubt in my mind that Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal will jump to the B1G if the B1G wants to add any or all 4.  The only thing stopping the PAC 12 from becoming the Mountain West Plus is the future ambitions of the B1G.  
 

Yet, the PAC 12 will not dare attack the B1G.  At least 4 of the 10 are hoping for a golden ticket to the B1G.  
 

My thoughts on where things stand…the PAC 12 gets their media rights contract without losing anymore teams…for now.  The contract will be for 4-6 years.  This contract will be the last contract in which the 10 schools remain together.  However, adding SDSU and SMU now will allow the PAC to not be in full crisis mode when the B1G come calling in a few years. The B1G will want to finalize its western flank before turning its attention to the southeast/ACC around 2030.  
 

Step 1 - PAC 12 signs a 4-6 year media rights contract. 
 

Step 2 - PAC 12 expands with G5 schools to stabilize. 
 

Step 3 - B1G integrates USC and UCLA into the conference.  
 

Step 4 -  Near the end of the decade, the B1G announces the addition of whatever combination of Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal that the B1G wants. 
 

Step 5 - The PAC either loses the 4 corner schools to the Big 12, or there is a full on merger of the PAC 12 and Big 12 minus Stanford and Cal. Stanford and Cal either are wanted by the B1G or they go independent.  
 

Step 6 - The B1G integrates the new western schools into the B1G by 2030.  
 

Step 7 - It’s now 2030 and that ACC GOR is only six years away from ending. Time for the B1G and SEC to pounce.  Both conferences are laying out their next moves. 
 

Step 8 - Sometime in the early 2030s, the SEC and B1G both add whoever they want from the ACC. A couple ACC schools may get to choose which conference to join.  A few ACC schools will only be wanted by one or the other.  
 

Step 9 - 2036.  The new look SEC and B1G.  The remains of the ACC either add G5 schools or consolidate into the Big 12.  
 

Step 10 - The P2 rule over all.  Playoff rules and NIL rules will work to their favor.   

 

Wildcard:  Notre Dame.  Remain independent and lose out on millions of dollars or join the B1G. 

 

Logically, this is the only end game scenario I can see happening. 

If Notre Dame is to remain independent it has to be forced to play 13 regular season game instead of 12 and the 13th game must be against a P5 opponent.

 

Why an AD is on the playoff committee board of directors I have no idea. 

[Rufus]

Brett Mc Murphy….

 

Oregon And Washington "Vetted" And "Cleared" To Join The Big Ten According To New Report – OutKick

WWW.OUTKICK.COM

---

The Oregon Ducks and Washington Huskies have been vetted and cleared to potentially join the Big Ten, according...

 

[Charles Fischer]

And who/what is Brent McMurphy's source?  A ton of blah-blah speculation in that article that we have already heard, including how Utah is not headed out the door.  Anybody can make any claim including how the two schools are "vetted."  But where does he get this from?

 

Is he related to Dennis Dodd?

 

How long it takes to "vet" Oregon?

--7th biggest college audience globally

--Meets the academic profile.

--Is a national brand-coupled with NIKE.

 

That did not take long...

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/11/2023 at 10:30 PM, Charles Fischer said:

And who/what is Brent McMurphy's source?  A ton of blah-blah speculation in that article that we have already heard, including how Utah is not headed out the door.  Anybody can make any claim including how the two schools are "vetted."  But where does he get this from?

 

Is he related to Dennis Dodd?

 

How long it takes to "vet" Oregon?

--7th biggest college audience globally

--Meets the academic profile.

--Is a national brand-coupled with NIKE.

 

That did not take long...

 

I think McMurphy and Dodd are twins separated at birth. The Missouri School of Journalism that Dodd graduated from and wherever McMurphy  

graduated from should be vetted and closed down. 

 

When did rumor-mongering, outside of The National Enquirer, become journalism? 

 

I have more faith in my Magic 8-Ball. 'The answer is cloudy.;