New Stuff: The Rumors are Becoming Disconcerting About the Pac-12, Oregon & Washington

[Charles Fischer]

First, I present a short article by Brent McMurphy posted by Rufus, (thank you) on another thread. See my summary of a few items at the bottom...

 

Oregon And Washington "Vetted" And "Cleared" To Join The Big Ten According To New Report – OutKick

WWW.OUTKICK.COM

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The Oregon Ducks and Washington Huskies have been vetted and cleared to potentially join the Big Ten, according to a new report.

 

 

Justin Hopkins on On3/ScoopDuck still believes that Colorado is departing for the Big-12, and that Oregon is headed (sooner or later) to the B1G. Brent McMurphy says that "people I trust" feel that both Arizona and Colorado might be headed out the door.  He goes on to say that both Oregon and Washington are "vetted," which makes no sense to me because that takes about 20 seconds to determine that.

 

It appears that everyone is waiting for a shoe to drop, because we have THREE parties who want the Pac-12 to dissolve so they can get Oregon/Washington on the cheap.  Those three are:

--Fox Sports

--B1G Conference, and the surprise is...

--ESPN

 

None of them want "blood on their hands" for the destruction of a conference, thus I wonder if behind the scenes we have those three parties poking at the Big-12 Commissioner to aggressively go after some Pac-12 schools?  Don't get me wrong; they ALL want the Pac-12 to die for their own reasons, but simply don't want to be seen as responsible for it?

 

They want us to implode on our own out of panic to clear their conscience.

 

Thus I think the behind-the-scenes-stuff must be pretty wild and intense.  I listened to the eight minute video above, as between that and JHop...it feels like the shadows of vultures overhead are on the ground around us.

 

[HappyToBeADuck]

Well anyone can go on TV, Radio or social media and share their opinion. We use ODB Forum to share our opinions.

 

What makes one opinion better than another? FACTS WITH NAMED SOURCES.....

 

All the videos and podcasts, the radio and tv shows or social media posts are presented to draw viewers or clicks. The more controversial the better.

 

In my company we use real time, face to face demonstrations to compare our products against our competitors products. We present in a visual form the FACTS about the advantages of our products and how they perform......

 

A very successful mentor shared these words with me in 1980. He learned this from another, highly successful mentor in 1972..

Information without demonstration is merely conversation.

 

The demonstration clears up and presents the FACTS.

 

When someone, like a actual in the know decision maker, is quoted as a named souce then we can all dig into the FACTS.

 

In the meantime we can have fun, share our opinions and discuss them. In other words we can have conversations. Let me share my opinion, for what it is worth.

 

Every word in this and other articles could be true. Liars, back stabbers and vultures lurk all around us. So do sheep who follow meekly. We can use usc and ucla as the perfect example to support that.

 

I don't support or discount any of this arrticle except the part about espn not being interested in the PACS Tier One media rights....

 

Let's use a dose of Common Sense here, and ask ourselves: Why would a sports network, who needs content not want a P5 West Coast Conference all to themselves? Afterall, football drives the money bus. Why would espn want U of O and UW to go to the BIG and be exclusively under FOX's control?

 

It doesn't make sense unless:

     1. PAC wants too much $$$$$?

     2. BIG, big 12, FOX and espn are

         colluding together?

     3. Its in everyones interest for

         the 4 corners to go to big 12

         UO, UW, CAL and Stanford to

         go BIG?

     4. WSU and OSU goes to MWC

         and espn gets the new MWC

         for a very cheap price?

 

In a world of vultures any of this is possible. But these vultures best beware that any of these scenarios could bring another apex predator into the mix......

 

ATTORNEY'S.........

 

Go Ducks.......

[Drake]

On 5/12/2023 at 6:25 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

In a world of vultures any of this is possible. But these vultures best beware that any of these scenarios could bring another apex predator into the mix......

 

ATTORNEY'S.........

Collusion definition…

 

when entities or individuals work together to influence a market for their own advantage. Acts of collusion could include price fixing, or sharing insider information. Perhaps we could also add the media mutts that report unsubstantiated rumors for personal favors, or gain. 
 

Antitrust lawsuits are real…my opinion…the consumer ends up paying the attorneys fees and any damages awarded.

[Jon Joseph]

McMurphy is often wrong but never in doubt.

 

Vetted? By whom? The B1G presidents before the new commissioner hire got together and vetted the NW schools? The new commissioner settling into his job vetted the NW schools?

 

Which of Fox, and junior partners CBS and NBC are going to come up with say, $100M or in that ballpark to finance adding Oregon and Washington? 

 

And ESPN? Fox elbowed ESPN out of being a B1G broadcast partner because Fox was ticked off that ESPN helped engineer the OK/TX move to the SEC. So why would ESPN want the 2 most-watched teams remaining in the Pac to go to the B1G? ESPN needs the west coast's late KO times. 

 

I do not see ESPN or Fox ponying up for more B12 inventory. And I don't see Arizona and CU, unless the new Pac-10 media deal is a complete loser, agreeing to take a lesser share than BYU and Cincinnati. 

 

It's a far different media market today than it was twelve months ago. I think the B12 commissioner's mouth is writing checks that can't be cashed. 

 

It's very easy for a sports "journalist" to spend other people's money. I don't see advertisers lining up to buy advertising time for AZ and CU football games.

 

If  B1G vetting is being done it has to be done by Fox, CBS, and NBC. I very much doubt that B1G broadcasters are going to approve the addition of the NW schools before knowing what the Pac-10 new media deal will be.

 

Is there a business person in the house? 

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/12/2023 at 10:06 AM, Drake said:

Collusion definition…

 

when entities or individuals work together to influence a market for their own advantage. Acts of collusion could include price fixing, or sharing insider information. Perhaps we could also add the media mutts that report unsubstantiated rumors for personal favors, or gain. 
 

Antitrust lawsuits are real…my opinion…the consumer ends up paying the attorneys fees and any damages awarded.

I love this but do people in academia have the stomach to file collusion and/or anti-trust litigation? The former Oregon president is at Northwestern and the new Oregon president came to Oregon from the B1G.

 

Any litigation would have to be approved by the conference presidents who have never been litigious. Except when dragged into litigation by the NCAA; litigation that the NCAA lost while spending multi-millions of dollars in the process.

 

Unfortunately, sports fans do not have the required standing to bring suit against member schools and networks, and conferences that colluded to take SC and UCLA from the Pac and OK/TX from the B12. Even if "we" could bring suit I doubt that a decent law firm would take on any such case pro bono. So, who will pay the attorney's fees? 

 

The B1G and the SEC have the majority of the market share but enough to warrant an anti-trust suit. I don't see it. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/12/2023 at 9:25 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Well anyone can go on TV, Radio or social media and share their opinion. We use ODB Forum to share our opinions.

 

What makes one opinion better than another? FACTS WITH NAMED SOURCES.....

 

All the videos and podcasts, the radio and tv shows or social media posts are presented to draw viewers or clicks. The more controversial the better.

 

In my company we use real time, face to face demonstrations to compare our products against our competitors products. We present in a visual form the FACTS about the advantages of our products and how they perform......

 

A very successful mentor shared these words with me in 1980. He learned this from another, highly successful mentor in 1972..

Information without demonstration is merely conversation.

 

The demonstration clears up and presents the FACTS.

 

When someone, like a actual in the know decision maker, is quoted as a named souce then we can all dig into the FACTS.

 

In the meantime we can have fun, share our opinions and discuss them. In other words we can have conversations. Let me share my opinion, for what it is worth.

 

Every word in this and other articles could be true. Liars, back stabbers and vultures lurk all around us. So do sheep who follow meekly. We can use usc and ucla as the perfect example to support that.

 

I don't support or discount any of this arrticle except the part about espn not being interested in the PACS Tier One media rights....

 

Let's use a dose of Common Sense here, and ask ourselves: Why would a sports network, who needs content not want a P5 West Coast Conference all to themselves? Afterall, football drives the money bus. Why would espn want U of O and UW to go to the BIG and be exclusively under FOX's control?

 

It doesn't make sense unless:

     1. PAC wants too much $$$$$?

     2. BIG, big 12, FOX and espn are

         colluding together?

     3. Its in everyones interest for

         the 4 corners to go to big 12

         UO, UW, CAL and Stanford to

         go BIG?

     4. WSU and OSU goes to MWC

         and espn gets the new MWC

         for a very cheap price?

 

In a world of vultures any of this is possible. But these vultures best beware that any of these scenarios could bring another apex predator into the mix......

 

ATTORNEY'S.........

 

Go Ducks.......

"Facts are troublesome things." John Adams

Edited May 12, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[Charles Fischer]

On 5/12/2023 at 9:05 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Any litigation would have to be approved by the conference presidents who have never been litigious.

Pac-12 Presidents + Larry Scott = Disaster for the Conference

 

[The Kamikaze Kid]

On 5/12/2023 at 10:37 AM, Charles Fischer said:

Pac-12 Presidents + Larry Scott = Disaster for the Conference

Spot on Charles. I don't think this subject gets near enough attention. If the Pac were the Titanic, the presidents would have replaced Captain Scott only after the water was passed the third deck. Even now with the water up to the life boats, they seem to still be up on the roof clinking glasses with each other marveling at the beautiful star lit sky. Even at this time, I don't think they understand the gravity of the situation.

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/12/2023 at 1:52 PM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

Spot on Charles. I don't think this subject gets near enough attention. If the Pac were the Titanic, the presidents would have replaced Captain Scott only after the water was passed the third deck. Even now with the water up to the life boats, they seem to still be up on the roof clinking glasses with each other marveling at the beautiful star lit sky. Even at this time, I don't think they understand the gravity of the situation.

Nearer My Bankruptcy to Thee? 

 

And like The Ship That Couldn't Sink, there are not enough lifeboats on the good ship Pac-10.

 

'Captain, we are bailing water but the pumps are failing!'

 

[2002duck]

I personally do not get any of the money that Oregon would receive from the B1G. As such, I don't really care what kind of low-ball offer the Ducks get. We are an extremely wealthy school with Phil's money. We can accept $30M from the B1G for all I care until the next contract in 2029/30. Just get us out of the Pac now.

Edited May 12, 2023 by 2002duck

[Jon Joseph]

I was pondering the matter of journalism last night and an old Russian joke about Moscow's two main newspapers came to mind. 

 

Pravda (Truth) Izvestia (News): there is no truth in Pravda and no news in Izvestia.

 

[NJDuck]

 

This is an article I jus now found dated May 11.  It does go along what Charles posted on this thread.  But, if it is true about the dollars per school, it's not good.  As far as I know, have not seen Canzano, Wilner or Bodkin reporting any of this.  I am hoping none of it is true.

 

Pac-12 TV negotiations reaching critical stage as mood, atmosphere grow more stressful

Conference solidarity is on the line as negotiations for a media avenue for revenue drags on

 

These include "The Monty Show," a Salt Lake City-based podcast on YouTube which reported on Twitter: "Sources also tell me ESPN would like to do a deal with the Pac-12 bur have been from in their financial offer, which I am told is $90 million per season, and has told the Pac-12 they will not go beyond that number, as ESPN is looking for a game or two outside of prime time window."

 

Another is Greg Swaim, a radio personality who has 67,000-plus followers on Twitter. He posted the following on Wednesday: “Expect a move from #Buffs and #BearDownjust after Memorial Day. As we reported months ago, the only actual offer from @ESPNat $9M per team and they may get another $10M from @AppleTV, but no guarantees. So $19M per team and a very large portion of that is streaming only.” 

 

If the Pac-12 remains intact as 10 or 12 it is likely for less than the Big 12’s renegotiated TV deal of $31 million per team, likely in the low to mid-20s, and it most likely will be a majority of streaming product produced by different studios. It will take a hit on linear availability.

 

 

Pac-12 TV negotiations reaching critical stage as mood, atmosphere grow more stressful

WWW.DESERET.COM

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Pac-12 solidarity is on the line as negotiations for a media avenue for revenue drags on. Will Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff be able to close deal soon? Read more here.

 

[Charles Fischer]

This is terrible on so many levels.  Confirmation from other sources of Arizona/Colorado leaving in June?  A contract well below the Big-12?

 

You just don't see some
of these things coming...

[Jon Joseph]

NJ Duck thanks for the post but this is again, without naming sources, nothing but doom and gloom rumor-mongering. 

 

I prefer to rely upon WSU and Pac-12 executive committee member, President Schulz who recently said that everything is proceeding as well as can be expected in a media market far less robust than even 9 months ago. 

 

Which media outlet will pay $30M a year each for AZ, ASU, CU, and Utah's sports inventory? Fox with the LA market locked up is IMO, not paying for the inventory of any additional B12 schools. ESPN just went through a series of new layoffs and has to come up with an additional $140M for Oklahoma and Texas.

 

Which advertisers are clamoring to fund and advertise any of the four corners schools' football programs?

 

Conferences are not paying the freight. Advertisers have to pay the freight. And all advertisers have been affected negatively by a less-than-robust economy.

 

Come up with advertising money for Oklahoma and Texas. Yes. For AZ, ASU, CU, and Utah? I do not see it.

 

If ESPN wants late-night kick-off inventory it has to make a deal of some kind with the Pac-12. Fox has shut ESPN out of the B1G conference.

 

These 'journalists' are very good at spending other people's money.

[The Kamikaze Kid]

At this point, it wouldn't surprise me if the Ducks don't just sign their own separate deal and just stay in the Pac. It's become obvious that the market can no longer accommodate  bloated conference contracts. It's also evident that the Ducks are the only Pac school with any true marketability across the country. A sinking Pac would be in no position to object and the UO could get a much better deal for itself. If ESPN has 90M for the entire Pac, I could see them just making a deal with UO for half that and letting the other schools fight over the rest. Cal vs WSU is not moving the needle on the east coast but Cal vs UO still would.

 

The Pac is a sinking ship and UO is the only life boat. They should start acting like it.

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/13/2023 at 1:33 PM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

At this point, it wouldn't surprise me if the Ducks don't just sign their own separate deal and just stay in the Pac. It's become obvious that the market can no longer accommodate  bloated conference contracts. It's also evident that the Ducks are the only Pac school with any true marketability across the country. A sinking Pac would be in no position to object and the UO could get a much better deal for itself. If ESPN has 90M for the entire Pac, I could see them just making a deal with UO for half that and letting the other schools fight over the rest. Cal vs WSU is not moving the needle on the east coast but Cal vs UO still would.

 

The Pac is a sinking ship and UO is the only life boat. They should start acting like it.

Very risky. How many of the existing Pac-10 schools would schedule the Ducks in football, basketball, and non-revenue sports?

 

OOC schedules are filled for many schools five years to a decade-plus out. The Ducks would likely end up being a quasi-member of the Mountain West and as an independent would not automatically make the playoff field in 2024/25. If Oregon made the field it could not be seeded higher than 5.

 

And Oregon would not have a 13th champ game data point. 

 

Why would the Ducks on its own score a better deal than they will score in the Pac-10? 

 

Today, I very much doubt that ESPN will come with close to $90M for Pac media rights and see no way that ESPN would pay SEC-like money, $70M a team, for the Ducks. 

 

The Ducks have terrific value as a brand, no doubt, but I just do not think it is feasible for Oregon to join Army, UConn, UMass, Notre Dame, and NM State as an independent.

 

Unlike Notre Dame, Oregon would not have a seat at the Playoff table. Notre Dame's deal with NBC is for @$30M a season. I think the new Pac-12 deal will at least meet this number. And I very much doubt that Oregon could find a scheduling agreement like ND has with the ACC.

 

I think this is a case of hanging separately or hanging together.

 

[Charles Fischer]

It still blows me away that the number is 90M for our entire conference, yet each one of the B1G members are going to get 40M to start and working up to 70M?

 

Rutgers, Northwestern, Illinois, Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue....those seven teams deserve more than Oregon?

 

[The Kamikaze Kid]

On 5/13/2023 at 10:56 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Very risky. How many of the existing Pac-10 schools would schedule the Ducks in football, basketball, and non-revenue sports?

The Ducks would still be in the PAC so scheduling wouldn’t be effected. I’m positive the B12 would take the Ducks at a 100% rate plus extra in a heartbeat.
 

They could wait out a B10 invite there without dividing up a crumb equally with Cal, WSU and the rest. I don’t see any leverage the PAC would have to say no to this plan. 
 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/13/2023 at 2:53 PM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

The Ducks would still be in the PAC so scheduling wouldn’t be effected. I’m positive the B12 would take the Ducks at a 100% rate plus extra in a heartbeat.
 

They could wait out a B10 invite there without dividing up a crumb equally with Cal, WSU and the rest. I don’t see any leverage the PAC would have to say no to this plan. 
 

 

If Oregon was to do its own deal and not sign the new conference grant of rights it would no longer be a member of the conference.

 

Far better IMO to sign the new grant of rights and negotiate for a bigger slice of the media pie. 

 

Before Larry the Pac conference had unequal revenue shares. Thanks again, Larry.

 

USC noted its displeasure at the time and remained disgruntled. One of the B1G reasons that Troy is going B1G. UCLA would not have been invited without USC.

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/13/2023 at 2:33 PM, Charles Fischer said:

It still blows me away that the number is 90M for an entire conference, yet each one of the B1G members are going to get 40M to start and working up to 70M?

 

Rutgers, Northwestern, Illinois, Maryland, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue....those seven teams deserve more than Oregon?

 

It's not over before the fat ladies close their respective purses.

 

ESPN and Fox and still in play. A streaming partner is still in play.

 

There is a timeline out there for MW schools. If the Pac-10 wants to expand and add SDSU (and/or Fresno, UNLV, CO St, Boise) Mountain West schools need to give notice to the MW by 6/30/23 or the exit fee will go from $16M to 30+M.

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

KK, any idea that helps out Oregon is a good idea.

 

I just don't think that if Oregon did its own deal which would hurt the Pac-9's new deal the members of the Pac would want to do anything to help out Oregon.

 

Would an ND-like ACC deal be doable? Maybe. But the remaining Pac-9 members would have to swallow a lot of hard feelings. 

[12Duck72]

On 5/13/2023 at 10:20 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

I prefer to rely upon WSU and Pac-12 executive committee member, President Schulz 

Of course WSU and their President are going to be out spinning that everything is OK. Like the Beavs when this thing implodes they are going to be on the outside looking in. Not right but it is what it is.

 

People can chose whom or what to believe. Right now, Fuskie sites are saying Memorial Day the Ducks and the team up North are gone. Is it true? IDK

 

You make a fair point. There's a lot of  different "scoops " out there that it gets tiring trying to sort it out. 

 

Personally,  and I don't think I'm alone, I just want this done so we can all move on with our lives.

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/13/2023 at 10:00 PM, 12Duck72 said:

Of course WSU and their President are going to be out spinning that everything is OK. Like the Beavs when this thing implodes they are going to be on the outside looking in. Not right but it is what it is.

 

People can chose whom or what to believe. Right now, Fuskie sites are saying Memorial Day the Ducks and the team up North are gone. Is it true? IDK

 

You make a fair point. There's a lot of  different "scoops " out there that it gets tiring trying to sort it out. 

 

Personally,  and I don't think I'm alone, I just want this done so we can all move on with our lives.

 

 

I certainly understand your POV. President Schilz is on the conference executive committee and in close contact with the commissioner, George Kliavkoff. Totally objective? Of course not but what source is totally objective?  

 

He is a direct source. What is the source for the take on the Huskie's board? Denis Dodd, Brent McMurphy, and the Twitterati?

 

If you believe all of the articles to date and I am not saying you do so, the four corners schools should already be headed to the B12, Oregon, and Washington to the B1G, OSU and WSU to the Mountain West with CAL and Stanford going the Ivy League route.

 

The media economy today even compared to a year ago stinks. ESPN is going through another round of employee cuts and salary reductions. Fox laid off a number of people from one of its affiliates. Amazon has gone through a series of employee reductions. (Apple has not.)

 

No 3rd party streaming company has ever entered into a big-time deal to stream college sports.

 

Guys like the B12 commissioner can talk a big game about expansion but the B12 is not the entity that has to write the checks.

 

Losing the LA schools was a crippling blow. I recall many a post where folks opined that the Pac-12 didn't need the LA schools to be good, etc. In fact, to be good financially, the conference does, or did, need the LA schools.

 

When you are in a relatively weak negotiating position you do not have the leverage to force anything, including when a transaction is consummated. 

 

The stock markets are roiling. And the economy has not yet recovered from COVID. Add that to the recent inflation and the rise in interest rates and this is not a good time to be doing a media deal.

 

Is some of this on the conference and its timing? Heck yes. But it is what it is and GK and no one else, has the power to alter market dynamics.

 

As one of our former Presidents oft said,  'I feel your pain.' I am as frustrated as you and all Pac fans over this seeming inertia. 

 

Perhaps I am naive but I still believe the conference will end up with a new media deal that will not make moving to the B12 a financially sound move. And I am certain that until any institution in the Pac and any entity hoping to poach Pac-10 teams, knows what the bottom line is, a baseline is established, that Fox and junior partners CBS and NBC are not going to come up with an offer for Oregon and Washington.

 

It stinks to have to wait through all of 'this stuff; especially, for an impatient person such as me. But the existing deal does not expire for some time yet.

 

Was the B12 smart to make an early deal for $30M a team per annum? Maybe, but it remains to be seen. This deal is not a heck of a lot better than the ACC deal and the B12 is not bringing in additional income from its own network.

 

The Ducks brand is strong and while Oregon sports are of course reliant upon a media deal, media money is but one source of Oregon's income.

 

Economics 101 is now adjourned and no one in their right mind should pay money to listen to Professor JJ.

 

One way or another this too shall pass.

 

-

[woundedknees]

"He is a direct source. What is the source for the take on the Huskie's board? Denis Dodd, Brent McMurphy, and the Twitterpated?"

[Rufus]

Off topic, but NBC released its fall prime time lineup.  Sports programming on NBC will also air on Peacock.  TV and Streaming.  Best of both worlds. 
 

Saturdays
7:00PM Big Ten Countdown / Notre Dame Pregame (also live on Peacock)
7:30PM Big Ten Football / Notre Dame Football (also live on Peacock)

Sundays
7:00PM Football Night in America (also live on Peacock)
8:20PM NBC Sunday Night Football (also live on Peacock)

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/14/2023 at 12:39 PM, Rufus said:

Off topic, but NBC released its fall prime time lineup.  Sports programming on NBC will also air on Peacock.  TV and Streaming.  Best of both worlds. 
 

Saturdays
7:00PM Big Ten Countdown / Notre Dame Pregame (also live on Peacock)
7:30PM Big Ten Football / Notre Dame Football (also live on Peacock)

Sundays
7:00PM Football Night in America (also live on Peacock)
8:20PM NBC Sunday Night Football (also live on Peacock)

It will be very interesting to see the B1G inventory that NBC will broadcast. I believe NBC is hoping for a Notre Dame broadcast followed by a Left Coast broadcast of UCLA or USC. These would be a great lead-in and follow-up game for NBC, But will Fox allow this kind of inventory for NBC?

 

I can see a situation where the west coast games could be broadcast on linear TV by Fox and also streamed on Peacock.

 

And where will CBS fit in the B1G broadcast mix? Losing the SEC to ESPN means lots of CFB broadcast openings for CBS.

 

I wonder how many Fox Big Noon games (9 AM body clock start for the LA reams) will feature UCLA and USC?

[David Marsh]

On 5/13/2023 at 10:33 AM, The Kamikaze Kid said:

It's become obvious that the market can no longer accommodate  bloated conference contracts.

The market is absolutely chosing to pay for bloated contracts. But the major players have also determined that west coast football and other college sports must die to pay for it. 

 

ESPN a d Fox have both taken on making bigger conferences in the B1G and the SEC and to pay them some massive bucks. 

 

Either want to pay the PAC for anything more than late night programming and are happy to watch the PAC die to pay for their new mega conferences. 

[HappyToBeADuck]

It feels like everyday, a so called podcaster, blogger or sports media (tied to the little big 12 conference) type keeps pouring out fictiscious facts from an unnamed source.

 

Maybe it could come to pass....

 

I keep asking myself are any of these people spouting off actually in the room with GK and the network negotiators? Are they? How do midwest wannabees have more first hand info than Wilner/ Canzano?

 

Are they in the room with espn?

 

They simply don't...........

 

And they never provide any details or a plan because they have none.

 

It would be very prudent of GK and the Presidents to dispell and sepatate fact from fiction on at least a monthly basis......

 

Consider this line of thinking if you are an espn/abc/disney decision maker trying to keep your job or CYA.

 

Scenario 1.

Let's offer the PAC $90 million a year for 1 featured game of the week.

 

Great, that will save us money and we can turn a profit on that game of the week.

 

Any downside?

 

We will be vacating the Friday and Saturday night PAC After Dark profit center. 

 

We would be vacating West Coast content to Fox.

 

Utah, uw and Oregon are not going to sign on for pennies to always play at night. These are Top 15 programs that have solid fan bases that we would be alienating. We could lose even mote subscribers and heads could roll, including ours.

 

What could we broadcast as content in place of profitable PAC football games? National Curling contests, Senior and Super Senior Pickleball matches?

 

Damn this is not going well...

 

Whats the market value for the PAC media rights?

 

$300 million annually without the socal teams for Tier 1 rights

 

Scenario 2

How much money will the bosses let us spend for PAC Tier 1 media rights?

 

Not near what the PAC wants....

 

How much are each PAC schools making from the PAC 12 Network for broadcasting 44 games each season.

 

Less than a million...

 

How about we offer each school $9 million a year for those 2nd tier games? We can schedule some of those games for After Dark viewing

 

That might make sense and we can probably get Utah, uw and Oregon committ to at least 1 of those games.

 

Lets run that by the bosses and see how the PAC feels. That scenario will give the PAC wider linear coverage, pay more money than they received from the PAC 12 Network and they can get their $300 million annualy from streaming and the CW.

 

Sounds great. But let's wait until the smoke clears from all the layoffs. The optic view is bad and we have time on ourside.

 

See even though i made this up at least i painted a picture that makes sense.

 

Remember, no matter what a network pays the advertising money will follow if the value is there.

[12Duck72]

On 5/14/2023 at 8:21 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

One way or another this too shall pass.

 

-

I think when this is over someone should do an article about who was closest to being correct about all of this. There are people, on both sides of this, who are going to have some explaining to do.

 

I'll say this Jon. I still think UO ends up in the B10 by the time the next contract comes around. No way they can leave the 2 LA schools out west by themselves long term. Sooner? Maybe. We will see. But to me this saga is just another example of bad PAC leadership. The shoulda, woulda, coulda's for this conference over my lifetime is staggering. Including right up to not taking the contract the B12 got and completely losing the narrative of what's going on now.

 

Yes there are always outside factors that you mentioned. That's what leaders are for. We've had Hansen, Scott and now George. I've seen nothing from GK that gives me any confidence at this point. Maybe he will surprise me but I'm not betting on it.

 

Time will tell I guess. For those folks who still want to believe there's a way for the PAC to survive this I say "Keep The Faith!". Stranger things have happened.

Edited May 14, 2023 by 12Duck72

[David Marsh]

On 5/14/2023 at 11:37 AM, HappyToBeADuck said:

Utah, uw and Oregon are not going to sign on for pennies to always play at night. These are Top 15 programs that have solid fan bases that we would be alienating. We could lose even mote subscribers and heads could roll, including ours.

I think this is a sign saying they are planning on getting those teams out of the PAC to one of the mega conferences at some point. They won't pay top dollar for them in the PAC but they would be more willing to poach them to a "better" conference. 

 

This is the consolidation of resources and the PAC is deemed not worthy. 

 

With a shattered PAC picking up late night programs on the cheap from the reminents becomes viable as they would have no bargaining power.

[Jon Joseph]

On 5/14/2023 at 2:58 PM, 12Duck72 said:

I think when this is over someone should do an article about who was closest to being correct about all of this. There are people, on both sides of this, who are going to have some explaining to do.

 

I'll say this Jon. I still think UO ends up in the B10 by the time the next contract comes around. No way they can leave the 2 LA schools out west by themselves long term. Sooner? Maybe. We will see. But to me this saga is just another example of bad PAC leadership. The shoulda, woulda, coulda's for this conference over my lifetime is staggering. Including right up to not taking the contract the B12 got and completely losing the narrative of what's going on now.

 

Yes there are always outside factors that you mentioned. That's what leaders are for. We've had Hansen, Scott and now George. I've seen nothing from GK that gives me any confidence at this point. Maybe he will surprise me but I'm not betting on it.

 

Time will tell I guess. For those folks who still want to believe there's a way for the PAC to survive this I say "Keep The Faith!". Stranger things have happened.

Terrific take. I agree that the B1G will add Left Coast teams when the next media deal comes around. I just hope that it will be Oregon and UW and not CAL and Stanford which I think the two LA teams would prefer.

 

Add all 4 and you have 20 teams. Add two more from the Pac-12, (CU, Utah - AAU member schools?), or 2 from B12 (KS and IA St are AAU members) and/or 4 from the ACC (Georgia Tech, UNC, Duke, and UVA are AAU members.) If the ACC folds I think Notre Dame will have to go to a conference and it will fold if the B1G takes 4 ACC teams and the SEC adds Clemson, FSU, Miami, and NC State.)

 

I think 24 teams with 6 four-team pods would make sense for both the B1G and the SEC.

 

This could happen earlier in 2026 if the B1G and the SEC want to put a lock on the playoff.

 

The game of musical conference chairs is far from over.