Oregon Against Conference Expansion?

[kirklandduck]

Feels like heresay to me.

 

https://www.si.com/college/utah/football/two-pac-12-programs-oppose-conference-expansion

[HappyToBeADuck]

Well, when it comes to forward thinking, especially on their athletic departments, the PAC presidents have caused a lot of angst and head scratching.

 

Especially for OBDF and the PAC's fanbase.

 

It's certainly plausible that 2 schools could oppose expansion, maybe more.  When it comes to messing things up and poor decision making the PAC has quite rhe track record.

 

The article was short on substance, facts and named sources. But who knows......

 

Like it or not, the PAC needs to provide content for the TIER ONE Rights holder. What that content number is only GK and the negotistors know......

 

To me, the PAC is not that compelling. With the hated usucks leaving its even less compelling. No more Utah vs usuck! No more matchups against OSU, uw or Oregon.

 

ucla nevered raised my interest level but the Bruins were interesting for the Networks.

 

Both schools carry so much content value that fox was willing to destroy a conference to acquire thrm.....

 

Those were big time matchups that were must see games. That quality inventory content cannot be replaced overnight.

 

New, fresh rivalries need to be created. Fresh blood can and will increase fan interest. The PAC brand needs games in the CST time zone.

 

The PAC can build there Brand in Texas.  SMU invented pay for play 40 plus years ago. They didnt really try to hide it. SMU and its boosters will invest BIG TIME.....

 

Time and patience, as always, are necessary for us fans.

[Jon Joseph]

Thanks, Happy, all good thoughts.

 

Without the LA schools, Fox/B1G would not have been able to come close to the SEC media deal. Destabilizing a conference that it broadcast for many years likely never crossed the minds of the executives at Fox. Ditto for ESPN execs when it came to the poaching of OK/TX from the B12. In the case of Fox/B1G the B1G lied by commission. In the case of ESPN/SEC, the SEC lied by omission. In the B1G, UCLA, USC, and SEC Philosophy Departments, Nietzsche has to be the go-to guy followed closely by Machiavelli. 

 

Spot on Happy. Expansion if it happens will be about inventory and then how small of a revenue share can you hand say, SDSU and SMU, to convince them to come on board. I think that this call will be made by the conference's media partners as much as it will be made by the conference. If GK advises expansion holdouts that the media deal will not fly without expansion then I expect the votes will be there to OK expansion. It's all about the money. Saying that, with the Pac looking at a lesser deal than the B1G/SEC and with Comcast and SFO office retrofit hits coming, I can see why Pac-10 schools might want to stay with ten teams in anticipation of expansion deck chairs being moved again 5 or so seasons from now.

 

The San Diego market is a decent size market and keeps the conference in southern California. The DFW market is large. On the other hand, SMU football was 69th most watched on average in the nation last season with SDSU coming in at 73. There would be a bump in viewers if SMU and/or SDSU were to move up from G5 to P5, but how much of a bump? I do not expect an ipso facto jump in SMU's media rankings simply because SMU joins a conference located on the west coast. A conference with no natural rivals. If the Pac Presidents were bullish on Central time zone inventory they could have taken in B12 orphans a few years back.

 

If expansion candidates are not immediately accretive in today's media marketplace does it make sense to expand? Based on 2022 viewer numbers, the slam dunk Power 3 accretive teams are Clemson, Oregon, FSU, Utah, and UW. And, of course, the big prize is Notre Dame. TCU and OK St also average more than $1M viewers a game on average. Texas Tech and K State come very close to doing so. I expect that when GK presents the details of the new media deals to the Pac Presidents that the deal will already have expansion factored in. And if I were Oregon and UW I would not blindly approve expansion without a complete understanding of the numbers involved. 

 

For the most part, I see an article such as this and in general all articles regarding conference expansion as being idle speculation from folks sitting behind a keyboard without the ability to write the checks that would enable expansion.

 

It may well be in the Pac's best interests to play the long game and go after accretive B12 schools when they become available. TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas, and K State would all be better conference additions than SDSU and/or SMU and would provide more than a scintilla of Central time zone inventory. 

 

I always enjoy reading your well-thought-out comments. 

 

 

Edited July 23, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[1Funduck]

My initial knee jerk reaction is I'm not buying it. Sure, revenue would get split up into more pieces, but the revenue in aggregate will increase with more teams. One might say it could be a wash or even a net positive. However, the REAL payday is getting to the 2nd round of the playoffs. Are you scared of SDSU or SMU? I'm not. 

 

I would love to know the truth behind this rumor. What is Oregon truly thinking? Either way, we see the playoffs for 2024 with this squad.

[Charles Fischer]

To all of us, adding the expansion schools and then negotiating the media contract made sense, as then we would know the game inventory the PAC-12 was offering.

 

Now we see why the order was reversed; not all current schools were on-board, so GK had to get the contract done first, due to a deadline.  Technically, there is no rush to expand immediately, although I see the benefits of having the game inventory for 2024.

 

We fans were oblivious to this.

 

I believe we fans are also being surprised that representatives of Oregon might just be fighting for our best interests better than any of us suspected. Perhaps Mullens has been active behind the scenes, and determined what is best for OREGON and is vigorously pursuing it? We clearly do not know his long-term goals in this…

[HappyToBeADuck]

Great posts JJ and 1FunDuck. More questions than answers at this point for all of us.

 

I agree that expansion makes no sense if the end game is to just be viable and available when the next round of expansion heats up......

 

And JJ you are correct that the Tier 1 Media rights holder may very well decide PAC Expansion.

 

Thanks for sharing thosr good thoughts.

[David Marsh]

Oregon doesn't need the PAC the same way the PAC needs Oregon at this point. Oregon is interested in access to the CFP and they can have that in a slightly smaller conference. 

 

Oregon also has some of the deepest doners in the country and can easily make up the revenue difference. That is in part also why the ducks aren't pushing for the B1G (it also doesn't pencil). 

 

Another thing for Oregon is that they were the school in the PAC (at least public school) that brought in the most athletic revenue and MADE money for the year. 

 

Oregon doesn't need conference expansion to get what they want. 

 

Now as a greater fan of the PAC, I would like to see a little expansion and keep this conference healthy. 

 

But Oregon's needs aren't the same as the rest of the conference. They may be opposed but it probably won't matter for conference expansion because there will be enough to push expansion forward. 

[Steven A]

On 7/23/2023 at 9:17 AM, David Marsh said:

Now as a greater fan of the PAC, I would like to see a little expansion and keep this conference healthy. 

I agree, but I think the landscape will drastically change again around 2030 when it seems a lot of conferences are ending their media delas around the same time.

[David Marsh]

On 7/23/2023 at 12:17 PM, Steven A said:

I agree, but I think the landscape will drastically change again around 2030 when it seems a lot of conferences are ending their media delas around the same time.

The ACC won't be... But at least the B1G, the PAC and the Big-12 will be around that time. Probably the SEC as well but not sure on their deal. 

 

Though I do think if the PAC were to take on SDSU and SMU their brands can grow a bit by then. 

[Jon Joseph]

Bama Hammer, guess what team he roots for, weighs in on expansion.

 

College Football may reach a Power Two without more expansion

BAMAHAMMER.COM

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During SEC Media Days, Greg Sankey stated SEC Football (and Basketball) have no expansion plans. In a recent piece by Blake...

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 7/23/2023 at 5:50 PM, David Marsh said:

The ACC won't be... But at least the B1G, the PAC and the Big-12 will be around that time. Probably the SEC as well but not sure on their deal. 

 

Though I do think if the PAC were to take on SDSU and SMU their brands can grow a bit by then. 

David, good thoughts. The SEC's new media deal begins in 2024 and runs through 2036. 

 

I think a number of expansion decisions and the direction of college athletics in general, will be affected by players at the P5 level, at least, being deemed to be employees of their university.  I also believe that streaming will alter the calculus from media market size to eyes on the prize; how many folks are watching. And streaming could provide the money to expand that has been tapped out on the traditional media front.

 

In Big Business we see size go to size. Growth comes from mergers and acquisitions as much or more than it does from internal growth.

 

Meanwhile, I'm going to kick back and watch Puddles kick booty.

[Mike West]

It seems to me the better route would be to ensure OBD schedule USC and UCLA as often as possible.  College Football thrives on rivalries.  SMU and SDSU would have to step up quickly, AND foster rivalries that are compelling nationwide.  Our not so beloved conference leaders are doing a poor job of promoting this conference.  What a tall task it will be to enhance SDSU's and SMU's reputation as P12 members.  It will be difficult as it is without them to bolster conference rivalries nationwide.  Convincing the conference to schedule USC and UCLA as non conference opponents would be a step in the right direction regardless of who we might add to the conference.

 

At present, our games against Utah have not seen the national interest it should draw.  Now if the Utes can garner another Rose Bowl appearance (because they won't defeat OBD for the coveted playoff spot), and defeat Michigan or Ohio State (because WE took their spot), then a rivalry that garners national attention may be born.   A lot of ifs. That presumes Utah handles USC, we go undefeated, and Utah loses twice to us.

 

 

Unfortunately, USC faces the Fuskies, OBD and Utah in the regular season, so their reputation won't bolster the three top remaining teams this year (too many losses for one or two of us).  Unless...all three send the Trojans packing with double digit losses. Nothing would be more satisfying to send USC off with three indignant losses, to the three teams that would hopefully go to New Year's Day Bowls as the final send off as well.  That would bolster the conference's reputation massively.  As would three P12 New Year's Day victories.  

 

Again, lots of ifs. I believe getting our two Judas schools to schedule against the P12 often might help.  

[Smith72]

Mike West

"It seems to me the better route would be to ensure OBD schedule USC and UCLA as often as possible."

 

I can understand your point, and it has merit in regards to competition and big names.

 

However in my opinion, I personally would hope no PAC team ever schedules the traitors.  Make them travel to BIG country to get a game!

[David Marsh]

On 7/24/2023 at 11:03 AM, Smith72 said:

However in my opinion, I personally would hope no PAC team ever schedules the traitors.  Make them travel to BIG country to get a game!

If I'm George K I think I'd have some very real conversations about this. 

 

I think for the upcoming B1G contract both LA schools probably have their OCC slates already filled. So it probably won't be an issue. 

 

Which means the question comes up as to whether to schedule them if they opt to remain in the B1G for a prolonged period of time. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 7/24/2023 at 1:29 PM, Mike West said:

It seems to me the better route would be to ensure OBD schedule USC and UCLA as often as possible.  College Football thrives on rivalries.  SMU and SDSU would have to step up quickly, AND foster rivalries that are compelling nationwide.  Our not so beloved conference leaders are doing a poor job of promoting this conference.  What a tall task it will be to enhance SDSU's and SMU's reputation as P12 members.  It will be difficult as it is without them to bolster conference rivalries nationwide.  Convincing the conference to schedule USC and UCLA as non conference opponents would be a step in the right direction regardless of who we might add to the conference.

 

At present, our games against Utah have not seen the national interest it should draw.  Now if the Utes can garner another Rose Bowl appearance (because they won't defeat OBD for the coveted playoff spot), and defeat Michigan or Ohio State (because WE took their spot), then a rivalry that garners national attention may be born.   A lot of ifs. That presumes Utah handles USC, we go undefeated, and Utah loses twice to us.

 

 

Unfortunately, USC faces the Fuskies, OBD and Utah in the regular season, so their reputation won't bolster the three top remaining teams this year (too many losses for one or two of us).  Unless...all three send the Trojans packing with double digit losses. Nothing would be more satisfying to send USC off with three indignant losses, to the three teams that would hopefully go to New Year's Day Bowls as the final send off as well.  That would bolster the conference's reputation massively.  As would three P12 New Year's Day victories.  

 

Again, lots of ifs. I believe getting our two Judas schools to schedule against the P12 often might help.  

Mike, great take. But with 9 B1G conference games plus Notre Dame on the schedule, I don't see SC anxious to play Oregon. Ditto UCLA with Michigan as one of the Bruins permanent scheduling partners.

 

Yes, sending SC would 3 defeats in the conference would be delicious. But with SC playing Utah at home (the week after the trip to ND which could help the Utes) and UW at home I see Troy going at least 1-1 in the two games. 

 

Totally agree that the Pac-12/10 does a terrible job in regard to marketing the conference.