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FishDuck Article

Oregon’s Route to the College Football Playoff’s No.4 Seed

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Despite losing to Stanford this past week, Oregon still has a legitimate shot to make the College Football Playoff this year. I know many of you may assume it’s time to pump the breaks on this notion, and as we have talked about at FishDuck for a fair bit now, the Oregon community buzz is falling away from the program ...

 

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Only way my family sees hope for playoffs this year.  Beating Ohio State in Columbus is why there’s still a tiny spark. 


 

1. Oregon must run the table.

2  Either Alabama or Georgia must have two losses. Georgia must lose a regular season game or beat Alabama in SEC championship game 
3. Ohio State must win the Big Ten.


*The Sec Champ is in period regardless of record. 
*Big ten champ is in even with two losses.  Bank it  $$$$$$


That leaves 2 spots.

 

A one loss Oklahoma is in 

 

Down to one spot 

 

That leaves an undefeated Cincinnati with a win over Notre Dame vs a 1 loss  PAC 12 champ with a win on the road against a playoff team .  

 

So, if Ohio State wins out and finishes ranked 2 in the country (very possible) then Oregon as a 1 loss pac 12 champ must be in as well. 
 

Now if Cincinnati loses a game a two loss duck team would go in ahead of them. 
 

Sec champ vs Oregon 

Ohio State vs Oklahoma.

 

Spoilers?

Oregon loses another game 

Georgia and Bama both have only one loss

Michigan wins Big Ten 

probably more I haven’t thought of. 
 

Yes it’s still possible for Oregon to be in playoffs.  Crazy as this sounds if Oregon and Ohio State win out both are in.  

 

Root for Ohio State to win out!  Ugh

Root against Cincinnati 

Pray Georgia or Bama lose another regular season game 

 

Beat ASU, Washington, Utah, and UCLA on the road and we’re in. What’s to be concerned about!

 

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What any success going forward is going to take is for Oregon to take care of it's business, and not worry about the other teams or games.

 

With that in mind what is most important is each player is put in a position to succeed. AB needs to be put into a better position to succeed if he is to continue as our qb. Having him run more than the RB's isn't sustainable, nor is the passing game so far.

 

It is time to see our RB's get their opportunities. Dye is lightening in a bottle, but we have to use the skill set he provides. I think Trey and Byron are also excellent backs who need to see the right plays called, along with the O-line in concert with each other. Basically we are going to need a very good running game, which isn't led by our qb.

 

The next item is AB's passing. He is going to need to make a couple longer throws to open up the defense. If he can do this then his strength, the short pass will be a weapon he can lean on. If he continues to struggle with the longer pass then I think the offense under AB will continue to struggle. Defenses, going forward are going to let the long ball be open, and dare AB to throw. So the long pass is key to seeing success with AB, and it is possible. We just need Moorhead at his best!

 

I think we all know who our coach is by now, a risk averse individual who loves to see individual battles won. I just hope he is able to put each coach and player in a position to succeed. Individuals excelling, and each individual becoming a team while being led by shrewd coaching is what it is going to take. It can happen, but it needs to start tomorrow night!

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If Oregon and tOSU both finish with 1 loss, I'm not sure how voters could justify ranking the Buckeyes #2 when we'd have the same record and have beaten them head-to-head.  Not saying they wouldn't, but it wouldn't be justifiable.

 

That said, that would be a good problem to have.  🙂 

 

I'm undecided how I feel about reaching the playoff this year.  With our youth and inexperience, I'm not sure the Ducks are a legit threat in the playoff even if they get there.  Plus the injuries (heck, even the OC has been out).  So would I rather make the playoff and maybe get pummeled by UGA, or win the P12, face a B10 team in the Rose Bowl, and wait for this team to mature a little, heal up next season, and hopefully get superior QB play before setting my sites on the playoff?  (Not that my desires matter in the slightest to what will actually happen, obviously.)

 

Of course, one more loss and it's a moot point anyway.  

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On 10/14/2021 at 8:15 AM, Haywarduck said:

Having him run more than the RB's isn't sustainable, nor is the passing game so far.

 

And this is made even more problematic with Verdell out.

On 10/14/2021 at 8:15 AM, Haywarduck said:

The next item is AB's passing. He is going to need to make a couple longer throws to open up the defense. If he can do this then his strength, the short pass will be a weapon he can lean on. If he continues to struggle with the longer pass then I think the offense under AB will continue to struggle

 

 Yes, the short pass/strength of AB worked to perfection against the Buckeyes. But on a Ducks team loaded with receivers, Brown can't make use of them, as we have seen in the other games. INT's are worse than 3 & outs, but barely, and that seems to be what is keeping AB in place. To take the 4th spot the D will need to be  dominant, and that is much harder with an anemic offense. 

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A 12-1 Pac-12 champ Oregon is in the PO. Especially, over any 2 L non-conference champ team including Alabama. 

A 12-1 Oregon with a win at Ohio State if Ohio State continues to ball out, is in over a 13-0 Cincinnati. And also in over a 12-1 Wake Forest.

Oregon has a far better OOC win at Columbus that does OK that struggled at home to beat Nebraska. With its D I do not see OK going 13-0.

The B1G E is about to beat itself up. Iowa with a suspect O is likely to take an L before taking an L in the B1G champ game. 

 

Make no mistake. The PO is the holy grail of CFB. Far better to make the final 4 and take a beating in the semi-final game than to play in the Rose Bowl exhibition game. Far better! And far better when it comes to the upcoming media negotiations.

 

The team to cheer on today? ASU. If Oregon and ASU are 11-1 entering the champ game in Las Vegas, both will be highly ranked and if it is these 2, Allegiant Stadium will have some fans in the seats instead of just empty seats.

 

A 12-1 Pac-12 champion with the W at Ohio State is in. Whether the team wins ugly or not. The polls mean nothing. The only poll that matters is the PO Committee poll that will be reveled on 11/2 and likely change significantly before the final poll is revealed.

 

Win ugly? Fine. Just win baby and the Ducks is in.

 

 

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Oklahoma fans don't complain about being beaten up continually in the playoffs.  It isn't like professional sports where you have a worse draft pick.  Making the playoffs will help with recruiting.  Unless, the Ducks play like they did in Columbus, they will lose in the playoffs.  However, the Ducks have shown what they can do, so there is always that glimmer of hope.

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On 10/14/2021 at 10:17 AM, Tandaian said:

Oklahoma fans don't complain about being beaten up continually in the playoffs.  It isn't like professional sports where you have a worse draft pick.  Making the playoffs will help with recruiting.  Unless, the Ducks play like they did in Columbus, they will lose in the playoffs.  However, the Ducks have shown what they can do, so there is always that glimmer of hope.

I would say it will also take our opponents playing unimaginative defense like tosu did. Defenses are figuring out our offense under AB, and unless our offense become more dynamic we won't get to the playoffs or succeed if we stumble in.

 

The key is getting better through the season. Those who make the playoffs play well at the end of the season. Can Oregon play well through to the end? We haven't prove we can up to this point. The time is now, or maybe next season, but we need to change how we attack games and the season.

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On 10/14/2021 at 10:07 AM, Jon Joseph said:

Oregon has a far better OOC win at Columbus that does OK that struggled at home to beat Nebraska. With its D I do not see OK going 13-0.

 

 And yeah, Ohio State is above Oregon in the Polls, because Ohio States loss is much better than is Oregon's. 

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The safest way to the playoffs is to win by an average of 42-17 per game, including the conference title game.  

 

The team is damn near talented enough NOW to do that.  But that requires a hunger they don't have, a ruthless mentality they don't possess, and a coach willing to tick off the conference by simply burying them in the dirt. 

 

Simple, but not easy.  I see enough talent on this roster to accomplish that challenge.  Yes... Even with AB at QB.

 

But who am I?  I argued the Snake had a pretty damn good offense at Oregon(I'm snarky these days guys...I have little patience for potential, or unwillingness to see facts like 52 pog when JH was healthy under the Snake). 

 

These Ducks dropped 35 in Columbus- I doubt that happens again this season- and they left points on the board in that game too. What are they waiting for? Every Lane County High School to play them the rest of the year?

 

Kick everybody's butt already.

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On 10/14/2021 at 5:03 PM, Mike West said:

The safest way to the playoffs is to win by an average of 42-17 per game, including the conference title game.  

 

You really know how to get to me...

 

giphy.gif

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Mr. FishDuck

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On 10/14/2021 at 8:03 PM, Mike West said:

The safest way to the playoffs is to win by an average of 42-17 per game, including the conference title game.  

 

The team is damn near talented enough NOW to do that.  But that requires a hunger they don't have, a ruthless mentality they don't possess, and a coach willing to tick off the conference by simply burying them in the dirt. 

 

Simple, but not easy.  I see enough talent on this roster to accomplish that challenge.  Yes... Even with AB at QB.

 

But who am I?  I argued the Snake had a pretty damn good offense at Oregon(I'm snarky these days guys...I have little patience for potential, or unwillingness to see facts like 52 pog when JH was healthy under the Snake). 

 

These Ducks dropped 35 in Columbus- I doubt that happens again this season- and they left points on the board in that game too. What are they waiting for? Every Lane County High School to play them the rest of the year?

 

Kick everybody's butt already.

 

You're a Snark today swimming in a school of Snarks

 

But Oregon may yet become a school of Orcas?  Or, god forbid, a school  of minnows?

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Let's hope both Oregon and ASU run the table to field a conference title game the nation can't ignore.  

 

Here's to both teams wiping out the conference until then 

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