Does Capable Mean Probable?

[Haywarduck]

Oregon has been in the hunt for a National Title, but came up short. Part of the reason was depth, injuries and truthfully there was just a talent gap. Now we have the depth and the talent level needed to win it all. Does that mean we are probably going to win it all and all that goes with that?

 

I thought the article on the talent level of our defense early in the season was brilliant. It outlined all the talent, depth and the gaps that had been filled. This also brought what I viewed as an incredible amount of pressure on Tosh, and really Lanning. If you have the talent, depth you better get the performance out of the players.

 

We now are seeing the depth and talent across the board. We also have a fanbase, many who have no memory of the struggle of previous decades. They may know about the Helfrich year, but the struggle to get recruits, have any depth, isn't in their wheelhouse.

 

Are we probably going to win it all, and more importantly going to become one of those programs that expect to win it all? Is the program going to be comfortable with winning 10 games a year and going to a bowl game annually? What happens if we lose our qb, struggle, ball bounces wrong a few too many times in a season? 

 

I ask this question because many, myself included, are extremely excited with the news on transfers and recruits. What does capable mean to a program like Oregon, the new Oregon Football Program. We are headed to uncharted territory, and it will be interesting to see how the Oregon fanbase handles it.

 

Winning a title isn't guaranteed and while I imagine Kirby Smarts or Dabbo Swinny's path would be acceptable there are many other paths with talented rosters. I imagine one element is a supportive fanbase, and I hope that is what we see going forward.

 

 

[Steven A]

Well, a 12-team playoff with our current staff, roster and recruiting chops/prowess seems to indicate we'll be in the playoffs more often than not.

 

So, getting to the dance is the first step and we seem to have made that.

 

Now, we just have to see how the ball bounces.

[Log Haulin]

Oregon is capable. Ducks have the staff, infrastructure and talent. A lot of that talent is young.

 

Lanning has seemed to have reloaded this team for 24' with another TP window in the spring.

 

Back to back top 10 classes is a big deal. If Lanning can continue with what is becoming a trend, Oregon will reload year to year.

 

Is it probable? The only thing I can base an opinion on is the fact that they never have won the NC. I would have to say mostly improbable.

 

Many here, including me, thought this would be the year. The word special was often used to describe the 23' Ducks. 

 

Oregon had a good season but didn't win the conference or make the CFP. Lanning needs to prove he can win big games before I jump on the "probable" bandwagon. So far he hasn't won one.

 

Hopefully Lanning sticks around and becomes a Kirby, Sabin, DeBoer type of coach. I definitely think he has that type of ceiling. Ducks need to start with winning that elusive first big game imo.

[kirklandduck]

The key will be DL and WS getting better at their jobs over the next few years, of which I have no doubt.  As they get more seasoned and more experienced, the on field results will naturally improve in visible (and non-visible) ways.  OBD has as much potential to win it all as any other CFP contending team IMHO.

[Just Ducky]

 IMO until the ducks can stop the running game when they need to they have little chance against the power football teams and a natty. The Ducks gave up over 250 yards to Johnson in 2 games that they needed to win to me that is a big failure and can’t happen when you are against playoff teams.

 

 Can they fix this? Maybe

 

 Have they shown signs that they can? Not consistently.

 

 Will they do it? We certainly hope they will.

 

 Will they do it next year? Probably not. 
 

 Granted we have some young studs on this team and most of the COVID players are shuffled thru by now. Most teams will be getting young again so we should be just behind the blue bloods.

 

 In 2 years we will have the nucleus of DLs guys plus a sprinkling of transfers and a couple of years playing in the B1G. By then we will probably have the answers.

[Mike West]

It is extremely difficult to win a Natty.  Can't do it without talent and depth.

 

Lanning has the chops.  It takes every person in the organization to win a Natty.

 

Players, staff, administration, all have to be damn near flawless.  Margins for error are extremely thin.  And I mean extremely.  One play can and has decided a Natty.  One.

 

OBD have the best opportunity we have ever had.  I can't say for sure we'll win a Natty.  I do believe OBD will appear in another title game though.  

[candyduck]

This makes me sick to my stomach (keeping it clean) to say but watching the way the fuskies have played this year is a recipe for winning for a national championship.

 

Hear me out.  An NFL QB throwing to at least three NFL receivers you can go to any time.  Ducks had 2 (maybe 3-Tez or Terrance).  Tez and Terrance are very good but not Odunze, Polk and Macmillan great.  Yes Georgia hasn't had great QBs but they perform very good with great talent around them 

 

You mentioned depth.  Ducks don't have that PROVEN depth yet.  Every time Dub needed a play in the PAC championship, they went opposite Jackson with those receivers for whatever they wanted.  I think Manning was a 5* out of high school who just hasn't put it together imo.  I could've been smart enough to do that.  Back to the * rating again.  Sometimes they just don't develop and deliver.

 

I'll stop with this last (but not last) point.  Pulling out sloppy games you don't deserve to win.  The ducks almost did it in the PAC championship but couldn't finish it.  Obviously the fuskies did all year.  Like it was mentioned, it's a fine line to get in with 4.  Chances are definitely better with 12 teams but you still have to get past sloppy play or sloppy games and get some major breaks.  Alabama getting in when they absolutely should've lost to Auburn is one of those breaks.

 

Just a few examples of probably many more is what makes Kirby and Saben legends in this day of college football.  Please don't hate me but if the fuskies are healthy, they probably win IMHO.

[Mike West]

On 12/22/2023 at 4:29 PM, candyduck said:

Just a few examples of probably many more is what makes Kirby and Saben legends in this day of college football.  Please don't hate me but if the fuskies are healthy, they probably win IMHO

I thought this after the second game myself.  People forget how formidable Washington was before they started experiencing injuries.

 

Depth hurt us against Washington.  Poor execution did also.  And sometimes, you just have to admit you can't press cover NFL caliber WRs.  

 

That being said, despite going 0-3 against DeBoer, I believe Lanning is just as good.  Doesn't make sense now, but let me tell you, his intangibles are off the chart. 

 

That is a very difficult concept to explain.

 

Washington didn't seal any of their victories until the last thirty seconds of all of them.  Nobody can question the Fuskies are an elite team.

 

You don't get that close, with so many flaws, against an elite team unless you're elite yourselves. We are in for some very good times.  

 

Lanning accomplished his feats with the carryover mentality Cristobal left the team with (and his current team has).  He nixed most of it by mid season this year.  This team is his now.  The best is yet to come.

[Log Haulin]

On 12/22/2023 at 4:59 PM, Mike West said:

And sometimes, you just have to admit you can't press cover NFL caliber WRs

Unless you have NFL calibure secondary. Ducks were down a solid corner and an absolute Dude in the box. But it was the safety position that was exploited the most. Laulea should be a huge help. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 12/22/2023 at 7:23 PM, Just Ducky said:

 IMO until the ducks can stop the running game when they need to they have little chance against the power football teams and a natty. The Ducks gave up over 250 yards to Johnson in 2 games that they needed to win to me that is a big failure and can’t happen when you are against playoff teams.

 

 Can they fix this? Maybe

 

 Have they shown signs that they can? Not consistently.

 

 Will they do it? We certainly hope they will.

 

 Will they do it next year? Probably not. 
 

 Granted we have some young studs on this team and most of the COVID players are shuffled thru by now. Most teams will be getting young again so we should be just behind the blue bloods.

 

 In 2 years we will have the nucleus of DLs guys plus a sprinkling of transfers and a couple of years playing in the B1G. By then we will probably have the answers.

Next year 11-2 in the regular season will have Oregon in the Playoff and perhaps in the B1G title game. 

 

There is not a whole lot to fix. 10-2 with 2-losses by 6 points. Keep improving on what the Ducks do well and playoff appearances and title opportunities will follow. But as Mike West notes it's going to take depth because the PO if you make it to the title game will be a long slog against a lot of good teams. 

 

It took Kirby a few years to win a title. Ryan Day has yet to win a title. Ditto Jim Harbaugh. It's not easy.

 

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by Jon Joseph

[HDuck]

It usually takes some very good fortune, or help of the football Gods, too.

 

UW won 6 games this year by 7 points or less.  4 games by 3 pts or less.  Obviously they manufactured some of that fortune for themselves, but without the "Gods" one or two of those games could have just as easily been a loser.

 

It will be interesting to see if the Gods are on the UW or the Texas sideline.

[Duckster]

It's a good ponder point and has been a running theme throughout many of the threads on this site. I view the Ducks as a good (probably very good) team, but not elite. I also feel like the jump between good and elite is massive. Aside from luck, you need roster construction that matches scheme, high level Coaching (including coaching continuity and an established culture), roster experience with depth, and elite quarterback play. For a team like Oregon, it's a rare event when all these stars align.

 

Since Bellotti retired the Ducks have not had the coaching continuity to build a national title contender. Perhaps DL will stay long enough, and retain enough quality assistants, to provide stability on this front. It amazes me what a turnstile Oregon has been for coaches (and not just head coaches) over the past seven years. Conversely Deboer and his staff seem immune to this program crippling disease. Go figure ...

 

As currently constructed, the Ducks aren't even the best team in the Northwest, so there is much that requires fixing. I'm still haunted by the dominance of the line of scrimmage (both offensively and defensively) by Washington in the Championship game. I'm also haunted by Deboer's ability to devise schemes that put the Duck's on their heels ... again on both sides of the ball. 

 

To date, Oregon has been "measured, weighed, and found wanting." For all of us who have followed the Ducks over the years, we know how long a climb it is to the top. Hopefully Lanning and company will stick around long enough to plant a flag on that mountain. But to me, that remains a big if.

 

[Krsmqn]

Oregon has been bouncing around the upper echelon of college football for the past 25 years. They are bound to win a national championship one of these days. 

 

As long as the team & staff continue their upward trajectory, I would argue that it is only a matter of time. 

 

And I agree with the consensus that Washington is a very good team, but a team which many breaks went their way this year. That is certainly one of the reasons why they are in the position they are in this year. Oregon could have easily been in the same spot. Sometimes the ball just bounces the wrong way. 

 

I have the utmost confidence in the staff moving forward. Coach Lanning has shown his ability to recognize his own mistakes and to learn from them. He also seems to have a knack for identifying talent at positions of need. It's just too bad it's only year two. 

 

If the staff can stay together for several years, I'm confident that this will be a championship team at some point. As mentioned before, especially if we keep landing top 10 and even top 5 recruiting classes. 

 

I gotta wear shades.  

 

Go Ducks!! 

[AnotherOD]

I'd just go with UW best 7-8 players outplaying Oregon's 7-8 best players?

 

The other 14-15 guys? Balanced enough.

 

Penix, when it mattered, outplayed Nix. Johnson outdueled Bucky, and Odunze made more plays than Franklin. Fautanu, Rosengarten, Brailsford were a bit better than Cornelius, Conerly, and Powers-Johnson.

 

Trice, Letuligaseno, Olofoshio, and Muhammad were a bit better than Dorlus, Popo, Bassa, and Jackson.

 

On the coaching end, the UW appeared regularly ready to know where and when to press their advantages; and, on defense really remarkably seemed ready for the Duck's offensive tendencies.

 

I don't hate (but don't absolutely love) the Duck's current "dink and dunk" offense but, as long as it's running the ball successfully, it's money. But, it seems somewhere after the USC game, it lost its magic (was Bucky hurt and the staff rolled with it?, something else?). They finished after USC with 140 yards, 113 yards, and 124 yards rushing (an offense I believe was about 200 yards a game).

 

And, with the running game under control, the UW was able to crowd the box and dare Oregon to throw the ball at least 8-9 yards down field and it just didn't happen sufficiently.

 

I posed some thoughts on a Gabriel thread suggesting a slight amount of optimism moving from Nix to Gabriel might bring a bit more of a gunslinger mentality to those spots but it didn't play too well. Despite trying to suggest I wasn't getting on Nix, it just came across like Nix bashing which wasn't the intent. In that regard, Marcus was a lot like Nix, both guys to the end just didn't like the dangerous throw or to drop balls into tight windows (and when there was a game in the balance other Oregon QBs were maybe more comfortable in that moment).

 

Oregon finished #2 in total offense (527 ypg) and #2 in scoring offense (44 ppg).

 

Washington finished #91 in total defense (397 ypg) and #49 in scoring defense (24 ppg). Oregon's offense was #2 in the nation in fricken+ (if this autocorrects to "fricking" I can't help it) while the UW's "D" was a bit better #38 (probably in large part due to it's success in two Oregon games).

 

On paper Oregon should have put up close to it's average of 44 ppg against UW, yet scored 33 and 31. Scoring near their average against a middle level ranked defense -- wins both games.

 

The UW had more guys make more plays and looked to regularly be in better spots to succeed schematically more often. All things that can flip easily in a season; and, even if they don't flip, if the UW can't match its talent level in Penix, Odunze, Trice, etc.? It won't matter as a repeat of the same level of Duck execution will be sufficient (let alone Oregon improving upon the 2023 games).

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by AnotherOD

[Haywarduck]

So much talk about the dawgs receivers reminds me of when we use to make most every programs qb we played look like an NFL talent. While Odunze may be an elite receiver, I don't think it was the receivers that did us in. Our backfield has to step up, and this area continues to be a weak link in our defenses attempt to reach the next level.

 

There has been talk about safety play, but what really allowed the dawg offense to beat us? The dawg running game played well, the O-line stepped up, and Penix is the real deal. I would say it was a complete game by their offense. It wasn't three NFL caliber receivers, but time will tell. 

 

 

[Jon Joseph]

On 12/22/2023 at 10:49 PM, Duckster said:

It's a good ponder point and has been a running theme throughout many of the threads on this site. I view the Ducks as a good (probably very good) team, but not elite. I also feel like the jump between good and elite is massive. Aside from luck, you need roster construction that matches scheme, high level Coaching (including coaching continuity and an established culture), roster experience with depth, and elite quarterback play. For a team like Oregon, it's a rare event when all these stars align.

 

Since Bellotti retired the Ducks have not had the coaching continuity to build a national title contender. Perhaps DL will stay long enough, and retain enough quality assistants, to provide stability on this front. It amazes me what a turnstile Oregon has been for coaches (and not just head coaches) over the past seven years. Conversely Deboer and his staff seem immune to this program crippling disease. Go figure ...

 

As currently constructed, the Ducks aren't even the best team in the Northwest, so there is much that requires fixing. I'm still haunted by the dominance of the line of scrimmage (both offensively and defensively) by Washington in the Championship game. I'm also haunted by Deboer's ability to devise schemes that put the Duck's on their heels ... again on both sides of the ball. 

 

To date, Oregon has been "measured, weighed, and found wanting." For all of us who have followed the Ducks over the years, we know how long a climb it is to the top. Hopefully Lanning and company will stick around long enough to plant a flag on that mountain. But to me, that remains a big if.

 

Terrific take but IMO, Harsh.

 

What teams today do you view as 'Elite?' Clemson with 2 PO titles but that finished No. 22 in 2023. Ohio State has lost its last 3 games vs. Michigan and has 1 PO title in 2014 but overall is 3-4 in PO games. Michigan is 0-2 in the PO and I think the only position where Michigan will maybe be superior to Bama in the Rose Bowl is at RB.

 

Alabama based on BCS and Playoff titles is Elite. Georgia has closed the gap but is still far behind Bama in titles. 

 

IMO, your criteria for Elite is too stringent. OREGON is one of the few teams that competed for a BCS title and a Playoff title. Today, Oregon is consistently in the recruiting Top 10. Oregon is again playing in an NY6 Bowl. UW defeated Oregon twice by a total of 6 points. UW has had an Elite season but it certainly is not an Elite program. In early 2024 projected top 25's, I haven't seen a single ranking that has UW finishing in the Top 10. 

 

UW like Oregeron did at LSU with Burrow, caught lightning in a bottle with Penix, a Joe Moore-winning OL, a great group of WRs, and an adequate defense. With DeBoer's recruiting or lack thereof, UW's PO-like play is not sustainable.

 

Elite Programs today with Blue Blood status and Blue Chip Rosters and playing and recruiting up to said status are IMO: Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson, FSU, LSU, Ole Miss, Michigan, Ohio State, and Oregon. I view UW as a very talented team but without the recruiting chops to stay in the top tier. 

 

No team without a Blue Chip Roster won a BCS title or has won a CFB PO. Oregon with a BCR that continues to improve is by this standard already Elite and based on DL and friends recruiting will continue to improve its BCR roster and be in the expanded PO season after season. 

 

Thanks again for your in-depth thoughts. 

 

 

[Washington Waddler]

     While I agree with most of the Washington assessments, it still remains nine points for three games. Is that a big hump? Yes and no. It remains a big hump until Dan finds that ‘gear’ he’s still searching for that gets him over the top. Chip and Mark hit the big game by being in the right place at the right time. Dan is not sneaking up on anyone. He’s doing it like Kirby, the old fashion way. 
 

     My guess would be that the dirtiest word right now for him in the English language is ‘potential’