ESPN FPI: Oregon will NOT Win Out

[Charles Fischer]

I will admit that although I think the Ducks could lose yet, I am pretty surprised at the figure given to win-out the season by computers/software at ESPN.  Whew!  (Interesting projections on a game-to-game basis though)

 

ESPN FPI Update: Oregon Ducks No Longer Favored to Win Out in Pac-12 Play Down the Stretch by Zachary Neel of Ducks Wire

 

[nw777b]

I'm glad games are actually played and not simulated. They are more fun to watch and 2021 Duck fans get a cardio workout as a bonus.

[Steven A]

The next two weeks will tell us more about this team than the last 7 games ... home vs very weak team; on the road vs rival who can make their season with an upset.

[30Duck]

On 10/26/2021 at 12:18 PM, Steven A said:

home vs very weak team; on the road vs rival who can make their season with an upset.

 Very well put. Two ends of the spectrum a championship team needs to navigate.

[Charles Fischer]

Nope, as I politely disagree with my esteemed Moderator colleagues.  The real test is the final three of WSU, Utah and Oregon State, IMHO.

 

[shawnski]

Their biggest opponent is themselves. 

With KT back and others, hopefully the leadership part will even out 

[Just Ducky]

Let’s face it. The Ducks beat the toughest team on their schedule. There is not a team left on that schedule the Ducks can’t beat and none of those teams are better than tOSU. If they play like we know they should a one loss regular season is theirs for the taking. Won’t be easy however.

 

go s

[Jon Joseph]

The FPI is one of the worst at CFB rankings and projections.

 

 

[Charles Fischer]

On 10/26/2021 at 1:21 PM, Jon Joseph said:

The FPI is one of the worst at CFB rankings and projections.

 

Hope so!

[1Ducker1]

The Beavers want to go Duck hunting real bad, that's the one that scares me the most.

[Steven A]

On 10/26/2021 at 12:58 PM, Charles Fischer said:

Nope, as I politely disagree with my esteemed Moderator colleagues.  The real test is the final three of WSU, Utah and Oregon State, IMHO.

 

I'm not saying which games are more important, I am saying we need consistency against weaker teams and we have that opportunity the next tow games.

[C J]

I like this prediction.

 

The more the team feels that they are the underdog the better based on what we have seen so far.

 

If I were Coach I would be telling them every week that the media, fans, FPI's etc. etc. are saying they are likely to lose every game from here on out.

 

Keep them feeling like the underdog and the fire in their belly. Dogs-ucks gotta hunt.

Edited October 27, 2021 by C J

[Duck1984]

Is there a better quarterback, defense, and coaching staff combo among any opponent left on the schedule than that of our beloved Ducks?

 

Maybe!  But not certainly.

 

 

 

 

[SmithRiverDuck]

On 10/26/2021 at 12:18 PM, Steven A said:

The next two weeks will tell us more about this team than the last 7 games ... home vs very weak team; on the road vs rival who can make their season with an upset.

Three weeks. The Cougs are a constant thorn in our side. Only team other than Stanford to more often ruin what we currently got goin' at the time. Yet I still can't hate them with the intenseness that I do the Fuskies. Then we get to go to Ootah and home against our no longer civil war (notice no caps? That's because it wasn't based on the actual Civil War) partners, which is (almost) always not a cake walk. So, five weeks I guess then........What a minefield.

[DanLduck]

ESPN does not want a Pac-12 team to do well. They are and always will be anti-oregon. We are the "left coast" in politics and sports. No worries, we can beat them all!

Though, having to compete against the refs as well...more troubling. 

[HappyToBeADuck]

Well we don't have to travel too far into the past to hear how wrong the ESPN talking heads can often be...

 

Aka: GameDay last Saturday!

 

I may have missed it but I thought all the crew picked the Bruins.

 

Not sure anyone can pick either way on the 2021 Ducks. I love this team. They epitomize one of the first 20th centuries sports slogans from ABC's Wide World of Sports;

"The thrill of victory or the agony of defeat"

 

I may have missed the exact wording but this team captures the theme and spirit.

 

Go Ducks. Finish this week 1-0

[UtahDuck]

I am actually pretty confident going into the next three weeks of the season. COL is just bad, do i think we cover, no but i also don't think it'll be a one score game going into the final minute of the game. UW is really bad too. They have two  wins this season an overtime affair against cal and AZ in a game i have finally watched and can claim is the worst pac 12 game of the season. WSU is probably the hardest of the three, but with half their coaching staff gone it is really hard for me to look to seriously at this game.(which means oregon wins on an int in the final minute of the game.

 

It's the final two games that have me concerned, utah seems to be turning a corner offensively and oregon state has the most likeable head coach in the conference who also happens to be the best offensive play caller.  I think oregon goes 1-1 in these games, I would rather lose to utah and pull a win against oregon state.

 

if we go as predicted oregon still wins the north as we likely tie OSU but hold the head to head. and I think we end up playing Utah in the P12CG.

[Jon Joseph]

On 10/28/2021 at 11:36 AM, UtahDuck said:

I am actually pretty confident going into the next three weeks of the season. COL is just bad, do i think we cover, no but i also don't think it'll be a one score game going into the final minute of the game. UW is really bad too. They have two  wins this season an overtime affair against cal and AZ in a game i have finally watched and can claim is the worst pac 12 game of the season. WSU is probably the hardest of the three, but with half their coaching staff gone it is really hard for me to look to seriously at this game.(which means oregon wins on an int in the final minute of the game.

 

It's the final two games that have me concerned, utah seems to be turning a corner offensively and oregon state has the most likeable head coach in the conference who also happens to be the best offensive play caller.  I think oregon goes 1-1 in these games, I would rather lose to utah and pull a win against oregon state.

 

if we go as predicted oregon still wins the north as we likely tie OSU but hold the head to head. and I think we end up playing Utah in the P12CG.

 

At Utah in late November? Weather could be a factor in SLC. UCLA wins in SLC Saturday and the Beavs beat ASU in Resar? 

 

Most happy to be playing the Beavers in Autzen. Both OR ST Ls have come on the road. Smith is likeable and at $2.4M a season he is the lowest paid HC in the conference. OR ST best get ready to open the wallet.

 

If the Ducks go 11-1, this year could be a perfect example of why the conference has to drop divisions and make sure teams ranked 1 and 2 play for the championship. A 1L highly ranked Oregon team could be playing a champ game vs a 3 or even a 4L team? Makes zero sense for the good of the conference.

 

BTW, when Oregon plays its 9th conference game and 4th cross over game at Utah, Bama will be playing NM State at home.

[UtahDuck]

On 10/28/2021 at 9:53 AM, Jon Joseph said:

 

At Utah in late November? Weather could be a factor in SLC. UCLA wins in SLC Saturday and the Beavs beat ASU in Resar? 

 

Most happy to be playing the Beavers in Autzen. Both OR ST Ls have come on the road. Smith is likeable and at $2.4M a season he is the lowest paid HC in the conference. OR ST best get ready to open the wallet.

 

If the Ducks go 11-1, this year could be a perfect example of why the conference has to drop divisions and make sure teams ranked 1 and 2 play for the championship. A 1L highly ranked Oregon team could be playing a champ game vs a 3 or even a 4L team? Makes zero sense for the good of the conference.

 

BTW, when Oregon plays its 9th conference game and 4th cross over game at Utah, Bama will be playing NM State at home.

That's my thought too about utah, and I would argue that eccles stadium is the second best fan base so no matter what it is a hard stadium to play in.

 

Probably, but I do think Smith is more likely to stay at OSU than go to a big name school. Yes OSU will have to pay him more but also I think he has a great opportunity at OSU. 1. it is his alma mater which i think matters to him. 2. osu will clearly give him more leeway than pretty much any school.(go 4-8 at osu, your fine, in the SEC, you are fired.) this doesn't mean they can just lowball him they will still have to put out a comparable salary.

 

Eh, i'm still not sold on this. in my situation, i expect oregon goes 10-2(7-2), osu is 9-3(7-2), and you likely have two 9-3 teams in the pac 12 south(utah and ASU) both of which would mean utah has an 8-1 record in conference and asu has an 7-2 record. with Utah having the best record and wins of asu and oregon while a lose to oregon state. it is hard to have division-less football when you don't play every team. and honestly outside the mess of 2020 has it really been that many times the top teams didn't play in the ccg.

 

2018 you had 2 9-3 teams with technically the best team being wsu. but it is hard to argue they deserved a spot when they lost to UW the week before.

2017 washington had the best overall record but they lost to stan and had a 7-2 conference record. USC was 8-1 in conference. 

2015 oregon got shafted by the system(no arguments here)

2012 oregon got shafted again

2011 stanford was better. to me this is probably the worst example. only because the best team in the south was ineligible for post season so a 6-6 ucla got to play.

 

honestly in the past 5 season's it has happened once and that was in covid season. prior to that it happened to oregon and stan a number of times. I would also argue if the conference added a rule state "if a team is ineligible then the next best conference record regardless of division gets in" this would fix the 2020 season and 2011 season.

 

finally I agree the conference needs to move to an 8 game system. if oregon go to play the little sisters of the poor prior to heading into a game against OSU i would be way more confident in saying oregon wins out. not to mention that we shouldn't be putting other conferences up with the advantage of a late season cake walk.( personally like the 9 game schedule but unless you can convince other conferences to adopt it we should be using it).

[latracey]

I feel like, with every game, Oregon has learned key lessons that make them a little bit better. For instance, it seems like Cristobal trusted JoMo's game strategy more for the UCLA game with great results. Maybe that was health related, but I feel like it was an important corner that was turned.

 

In addition, I feel like Oregon's defense also turned an important corner in the UCLA game. The line is becoming healthy, KT#5 played an entire game, and the backs are playing better. It also seems that the defense as a whole is playing better as a unit, and understanding the defensive scheme better.

 

The two unknowns that will affect Oregon's success in the games to come will be injuries and emotion. There are several key players, especially on offense, who are key to Oregon's success, especially vs Utah and Oregon State. It's important that Oregon finds a way to stay healthy for the rest of the season.

 

The other factor is Oregon's ability to realize that they can lose any game in the Pac 12 if they aren't up for the game because every team is going to bring the juice to beat Oregon. Victory against every team left will take a disciplined effort from players and coaching staff.

 

Playing Oregon is the only bowl game Colorado and probably WSU are going to get. They may not be any competition on paper, but neither were Arizona, Cal, or even Stanford for that matter. Oregon needs to find a way to truly ignore all of the back ground noise, and get up for each and every game they have left, beginning with the one this Saturday.

Edited October 28, 2021 by latracey

[Jon Joseph]

On 10/28/2021 at 1:05 PM, UtahDuck said:

That's my thought too about utah, and I would argue that eccles stadium is the second best fan base so no matter what it is a hard stadium to play in.

 

Probably, but I do think Smith is more likely to stay at OSU than go to a big name school. Yes OSU will have to pay him more but also I think he has a great opportunity at OSU. 1. it is his alma mater which i think matters to him. 2. osu will clearly give him more leeway than pretty much any school.(go 4-8 at osu, your fine, in the SEC, you are fired.) this doesn't mean they can just lowball him they will still have to put out a comparable salary.

 

Eh, i'm still not sold on this. in my situation, i expect oregon goes 10-2(7-2), osu is 9-3(7-2), and you likely have two 9-3 teams in the pac 12 south(utah and ASU) both of which would mean utah has an 8-1 record in conference and asu has an 7-2 record. with Utah having the best record and wins of asu and oregon while a lose to oregon state. it is hard to have division-less football when you don't play every team. and honestly outside the mess of 2020 has it really been that many times the top teams didn't play in the ccg.

 

2018 you had 2 9-3 teams with technically the best team being wsu. but it is hard to argue they deserved a spot when they lost to UW the week before.

2017 washington had the best overall record but they lost to stan and had a 7-2 conference record. USC was 8-1 in conference. 

2015 oregon got shafted by the system(no arguments here)

2012 oregon got shafted again

2011 stanford was better. to me this is probably the worst example. only because the best team in the south was ineligible for post season so a 6-6 ucla got to play.

 

honestly in the past 5 season's it has happened once and that was in covid season. prior to that it happened to oregon and stan a number of times. I would also argue if the conference added a rule state "if a team is ineligible then the next best conference record regardless of division gets in" this would fix the 2020 season and 2011 season.

 

finally I agree the conference needs to move to an 8 game system. if oregon go to play the little sisters of the poor prior to heading into a game against OSU i would be way more confident in saying oregon wins out. not to mention that we shouldn't be putting other conferences up with the advantage of a late season cake walk.( personally like the 9 game schedule but unless you can convince other conferences to adopt it we should be using it).

 

Great reply Utah and I think you are spot on regarding Utah fans including The MUSS.

 

What I want, short of the Ducks finding better partners to play ball with and against, is an 8 conference game Pac-12 regular season schedule. No divisions. No CA scheduling agreement. Rivalry games protected. Week 9 = Championship Week. Team ranked #2 plays a Champ Game at the home field of #1. 12 plays, at 3, 11 at 4, etc.

 

8 team PO. 4 highest ranked conference champs and 4 AL. Conference capped at 3 participants. Notre Dame joins the ACC as a full time member or plays a 13 game schedule as an independent.(G5 gets a share of the P5 PO money but holds its own PO.) 1st round game played at teams seeded 1-4. 2nd round in bowls TBD. Champ Game 1/1 in the Rose Bowl. Move the start of the season for all teams to week zero, 1 bye week only and the timing works out.

 

PO media rights put out to bid to all interested media outlets.

 

What you expect could happen? But there is no reason for divisions; especially, once the PO field expands which it will. The 3rd best team in the conference should never play for a title over teams 1 and 2. Allowing for this possibility makes no strategic sense.