The most important question for the CFP is "How is the committee going to view Conference Championship games?" Some CCG matter others do not-

Ones that do not matter

North Texas St vs Tulane-If Tulane wins there go in as #11 or 12 but if NT St wins does that give James Madison a chance? It do not matter, only 1 will go.

Virginia vs Duke-If Virginia wins they go as #11 but if Duke wins do they go as 12 and Tulane 11? Still just minor changes.

Now the big ones

OSU vs Indiana-Winner will be #1 but will the loser drop? How far? If it is a blow out does that matter? If OSU blows out Indiana (by 30+pts, highly unlikely) how far will they drop? If they drop to 6 does that drop Oregon to 7 because of head to head?

Georgia vs Alabama- Georgia wins they stay in the top 3 but if Alabama wins does it drop Georgia? How far?

Now the possible crazy one

BYU vs Texas Tech - Tech wins nothing really changes but if BYU wins it gets crazy. With a win BYU is in but does Tech drop and how far? If Alabama beats Georgia and BYU wins does that put Oregon in the top 4? Who gets bumped to make room for BYU? If Alabama loses its them because they are 10 but if Alabama wins then Norte Dame is next out. Now if Kiffin leaves Ole Miss does that give the committee the ability to drop a one loss Ole Miss for a two loss Norte Dame?

The Nightmare Scenario

I do not wish this on anyone but since it is in the SOP's of the committee I am bringing it up. What if anyone of these teams in CCG has their quarterback get hurt? How far do they drop? Also, do they have to tell the committee how bad the injury is? If so should you lie? (of course they should)

Last question, be honest, how many of you loved watching Mario & Sarkisian beg to get into the CFP?

Whew,

That last scenario is huge. I would hope everyone would agree Georgia put to rest any notion Florida State deserved to be in that last four team playoff (and to be frank, Georgia made a case THEY should have been there). Florida State could barely win their Conference, and they were a shadow of who they were before the injury.

As far as Texas and Miami: As much as I hate to admit it, Texas has a case. They beat A&M, Oklahoma and Vandy. Two of those three are definitely in. They lost to Bama-also in. And they played horribly against Ohio State, with both teams a shadow of what they would become, and only lost by a TD. Miami lost two games they should have handily won. They beat ND early, and I believe we all can agree they would have a much tougher out against Notre Dame now.

BYU is going to have a lot to say about Texas' chances. However, this is a situation where schedule does matter. Texas was all over the map when you look at how they performed all year. But they played FIVE playoff caliber teams. None of them lost more than two games. They defeated A&M, who was undefeated. I believe Indiana, Georgia and Alabama were the only other teams to take down an undefeated playoff bound team. And this isn't in defense of the SEC. A&M proved you can run through your conference unscathed if you face the middle of the pack. Texas proved it is really difficult to go unscathed against a field of playoff caliber teams. Georgia, Ole Miss, OBD and Bama are examples of how tough it is to handle even one playoff bound team when they are playoff bound themselves. And Texas faced two top 3 teams.

Miami has no such argument. Much less, the talent they have nullifies any excuse at justifying their two losses. They have an NFL bound QB, and is far more talented than the rest of their conference. Texas is a tier below Bama and Georgia for certain. They defeated Oklahoma, which is at their level, and took down Vandy, who is also at or near Texas' level.

Ironically, this goes against my "you are what your record says you are" argument. What changed my mind was when I looked at Texas compared to Michigan, whom I initially thought should go instead of Texas had they defeated Ohio State. But Michigan didn't face five playoff caliber teams. The Wolverines faced two that were potential playoff teams, and went 1-1(and we can we acknowledge Michigan looked shaky as well?).

If BYU defeats Texas Tech, they are in. If they lose, that 11 slot should be slated for Texas if and only if Virginia loses. I can't justify rewarding Duke for winning a weak ACC, or giving Miami the nod for "being more talented". That is an insult to the "every week matters" mantra. Because it means you can lose several times and still make the playoffs. And you can get mulligans for losing to twice to teams you have no business losing to in the first place.

I despise the SEC mantra that they have a tougher slate than the rest of college football. This year, Texas and A&M proved the SEC is ordinary UNLESS you play a schedule that actually verifies your mantra. Texas is the first team in a very long time that faced 4 playoff bound/caliber teams, three in their own conference. Texas is correct to say scheduling Ohio State was risking a loss they easily could have replaced with an easy victory. Take away the conference shield, and you still see Texas performed well despite looking awfully shaky all year.

So as much as I hate to give an SEC team Kudos, Texas is a team I can honestly respect for scheduling and handling a very tough slate. They are the only team this year to play almost half their schedule against teams that lost less than 3 games all year. And they are the only team to face four teams guaranteed to make the playoffs.

Good post, but I think that Texas not being ranked in the top 10 is about to sway Sankey and others to Tony P's PO format.

SI

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