For the last three years, the Ducks have come up short in the biggest rematches. In 2023, it was the rematch against Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game where the Ducks came up short and lost out on the College Football Playoff. It wasn’t the most embarrassing of the three rematch losses, but it hurt most because it was to ...

Dan Lanning Needs to Change His Rematch Mentality

IMHO all of these rematch games have a similar "feel" to them. The storyline goes something like this:

• The first time around was close, but we all know that OBD were the better team

• In most cases (minus the OSU debacle) there seemed to be an assumption that OBD had better athletes (certainly at the skill positions) and more of them

• When we showed up and got our butts kicked a second time, not only did we appear to be less hungry/motivated, but we seemed to have inferior athletes at most positions (O-Line, D-Line, Secondary, etc)

• The coup de gras on top of everything else, it appeared in each of the rematch opportunities that we had inferior coaching at every level and failed to make any of the necessary adjustments that would give our players a shot at a better outcome

Yeah, I would say DL definitely needs to change his and his team's rematch mentality.

Well written. I think a lot of OBD fans including me are starting to wonder if DL has reached his ceiling. Don't get me wrong - he is still one of the top coaches out there, especially when it comes to recruiting and motivating players. But, does he have that special ingredient that will finally get us over the hump?

This year is especially tough, when we have a crazy good IU team led by what appears to be a new coaching wizard. And at the same time, the guy that DL replaced is finally peaking and could even win a Natty. I don't envy DL's mental state now, but then I also don't make his big $$$... 😁

1 hour ago, DuckFan93 said:

I think a lot of OBD fans including me are starting to wonder if DL has reached his ceiling.

I know he hasn't reached his ceiling.

But I will be honest.... with the way this season ended I am questioning his promoting the two new coordinators from within. I think Hampton is up to the task as he had a lot of control at Tulane but I am questioning maybe the scheme Lanning is running at this point. Probably a point for a future article as I don't really want to go into it right now.

But as for the offense.... I don't know if Mehringer is the right man for the job at the moment because the offense needs a kick in the butt. The athletes are there but when put up against the top defenses it fails to perform. Is it a Dante Moore problem? An offensive line problem? A receiver getting open problem? A schematic problem?

More of the same doesn't feel like it will get us to where we are demanding to go...

Going to be honest... I'm far more upset by this loss than the loss to Ohio State last year and Washington the year before that. That is three years and three failed rematch games. That is a pattern. Something needs to change.

Furthermore... the Lanning defense has struggled against strong passing teams. Which are the three teams we have failed to beat in a rematch. Run heavy teams seems to be something we have figured out... but pass heavy is a problem.

Thanks for your thought-provoking assessment.

Why did the Ducks play no better or worse in the second game in these three cases. I am going case by case, and draw conclusions empirically.

1. The score was nearly identical in the second game against UW because the Huskies were a good offensive team that made it to the final, because we had kicking issues, and because of injuries in our secondary. I also thought the play calling on crucial downs left something to be desired.

2. Ohio State had an abundance of talent, and was problem for everyone when they played their best game. I do think their coaches got the best of us on both offense and defense, but the injury to Stewart, who was critical to our previous success, was damaging. Oregon had the bye, which was a curse of death until IU broke through.

3. I thought Oregon was winning on first down on both offense and defense early in the game. Without the turnovers, it looked as if the game would have been competitive. Our QB was responsible for the first and third. He took responsibility for the second, but that may have been good character. (Possibly the mistake was Hill's.) We did not have a bye, but our two coordinators were both burdened with their new duties. It is plausible that this affected practice and preparation. Oregon did look sharp on the successful early drive, however. I think the loss of control at the line of scrimmage may have been caused by the demoralization induced by the repeated offensive errors.

In each case, there were confounding factors: injuries, the bye, and the departure of the coordinators.

An alternative explanation would be that Oregon was good, but the opponents were better.

a. In Washington's case, better because of our injuries at corner and our kicker's struggle.

b. In Ohio State's: their receivers were better than our secondary; and their DL and LB Downs were better than our relatively good OL.

c. In Indiana's: their QB may or may not be more talented, but he is more highly developed; our corners were close to their receivers but defeated by ball placement; one of our safeties was beaten repeatedly; Geoff Schwartz suggested on X that our tackles this year were not championship caliber (my phrase not his).

Apart from QB play, Lanning needs to recruit safeties who can defend championship quality receivers (the incoming guys look promising) and OL men who can play together for more than a year to build teamwork. Again, the recent recruits look promising.

Thanks to anyone who persevered for your patience in reading this.

When we are facing a team with equal or better talent levels (1-2 games per year) and that team is mentally locked on to us, we can't seem to get over the hump.

No doubt Lanning has the team motivated. But it takes more than motivation and talent to win it all. It takes coaching X's and O's and recognizing what the other team is doing.

I'm convinced we don't have the right coaching experience in the room to get us over the hump which is why I'm also disappointed that we didn't go externally for new coordinators, especially if Lanning knew in advance that Stein and Lupoi were looking to take off.

I'm also convinced that it takes a perfect storm to win the national title in the CFP era. Ohio St. had a boatload of experience, a chip on their shoulder and generational players on both sides of the ball in Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs. Indiana is unlike anything I've ever seen in college football and will lose a massive amount of experience next year.

Maybe next year will be our perfect storm with all the players returning. Will it be enough to overcome our lack of coaching experience?

Jon Wilner wrote an article that said "What's next for Oregon after another playoff collapse: The leadership and structure are right, but something's missing. (I was going to provide a link to this article but it's behind a paywall).

He goes on to say it's time to whack the button in Eugene. But which one?

The eject button, the panic button, the snooze button, the reset button?

The Ducks are a CFP regular contender that's far from championship caliber.

How far? 54 points. They were beaten by Ohio St. and Indiana by that much.

Oregon losing to Ohio St. and Indiana in the CFP isn't the issue. It's the fashion in how they lost in the

Rose and Peach Bowls.

Only coach Lanning can uncover the glitch in his system that left Oregon embarrassed in the biggest games the past two years. He mentions how Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi have departed for their head coaching positions and who their replacements will be.

To win games deep in the CFP, to beat opponents with comparable talent, you need equivalent expertise.

Are their replacements up to the task? It's believed that Oregon needs older, wiser coaching staff at the coordinator level. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers staff that sliced and diced the Ducks had decades more experience at the head coach and coordinator levels.

Lupoi's replacement, Chris Hampton has never called plays at the Power Four level and Stein's replacement, Drew Mehringer has one year of coordinator experience at the Power Four level, in 2016 at Rutgers that finished number 127 in the country in scoring.

The Ducks appear so close and, at the same time, so far.

I have a question for everyone to ponder. Assuming Whittington or Davison was healthy, does this team beat Indiana (both games) with Bo Nix at QB?