For the last three years, the Ducks have come up short in the biggest rematches. In 2023, it was the rematch against Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game where the Ducks came up short and lost out on the College Football Playoff. It wasn’t the most embarrassing of the three rematch losses, but it hurt most because it was to ...

Dan Lanning Needs to Change His Rematch Mentality

IMHO all of these rematch games have a similar "feel" to them. The storyline goes something like this:

• The first time around was close, but we all know that OBD were the better team

• In most cases (minus the OSU debacle) there seemed to be an assumption that OBD had better athletes (certainly at the skill positions) and more of them

• When we showed up and got our butts kicked a second time, not only did we appear to be less hungry/motivated, but we seemed to have inferior athletes at most positions (O-Line, D-Line, Secondary, etc)

• The coup de gras on top of everything else, it appeared in each of the rematch opportunities that we had inferior coaching at every level and failed to make any of the necessary adjustments that would give our players a shot at a better outcome

Yeah, I would say DL definitely needs to change his and his team's rematch mentality.

Well written. I think a lot of OBD fans including me are starting to wonder if DL has reached his ceiling. Don't get me wrong - he is still one of the top coaches out there, especially when it comes to recruiting and motivating players. But, does he have that special ingredient that will finally get us over the hump?

This year is especially tough, when we have a crazy good IU team led by what appears to be a new coaching wizard. And at the same time, the guy that DL replaced is finally peaking and could even win a Natty. I don't envy DL's mental state now, but then I also don't make his big $$$... 😁

1 hour ago, DuckFan93 said:

I think a lot of OBD fans including me are starting to wonder if DL has reached his ceiling.

I know he hasn't reached his ceiling.

But I will be honest.... with the way this season ended I am questioning his promoting the two new coordinators from within. I think Hampton is up to the task as he had a lot of control at Tulane but I am questioning maybe the scheme Lanning is running at this point. Probably a point for a future article as I don't really want to go into it right now.

But as for the offense.... I don't know if Mehringer is the right man for the job at the moment because the offense needs a kick in the butt. The athletes are there but when put up against the top defenses it fails to perform. Is it a Dante Moore problem? An offensive line problem? A receiver getting open problem? A schematic problem?

More of the same doesn't feel like it will get us to where we are demanding to go...

Going to be honest... I'm far more upset by this loss than the loss to Ohio State last year and Washington the year before that. That is three years and three failed rematch games. That is a pattern. Something needs to change.

Furthermore... the Lanning defense has struggled against strong passing teams. Which are the three teams we have failed to beat in a rematch. Run heavy teams seems to be something we have figured out... but pass heavy is a problem.

Thanks for your thought-provoking assessment.

Why did the Ducks play no better or worse in the second game in these three cases. I am going case by case, and draw conclusions empirically.

1. The score was nearly identical in the second game against UW because the Huskies were a good offensive team that made it to the final, because we had kicking issues, and because of injuries in our secondary. I also thought the play calling on crucial downs left something to be desired.

2. Ohio State had an abundance of talent, and was problem for everyone when they played their best game. I do think their coaches got the best of us on both offense and defense, but the injury to Stewart, who was critical to our previous success, was damaging. Oregon had the bye, which was a curse of death until IU broke through.

3. I thought Oregon was winning on first down on both offense and defense early in the game. Without the turnovers, it looked as if the game would have been competitive. Our QB was responsible for the first and third. He took responsibility for the second, but that may have been good character. (Possibly the mistake was Hill's.) We did not have a bye, but our two coordinators were both burdened with their new duties. It is plausible that this affected practice and preparation. Oregon did look sharp on the successful early drive, however. I think the loss of control at the line of scrimmage may have been caused by the demoralization induced by the repeated offensive errors.

In each case, there were confounding factors: injuries, the bye, and the departure of the coordinators.

An alternative explanation would be that Oregon was good, but the opponents were better.

a. In Washington's case, better because of our injuries at corner and our kicker's struggle.

b. In Ohio State's: their receivers were better than our secondary; and their DL and LB Downs were better than our relatively good OL.

c. In Indiana's: their QB may or may not be more talented, but he is more highly developed; our corners were close to their receivers but defeated by ball placement; one of our safeties was beaten repeatedly; Geoff Schwartz suggested on X that our tackles this year were not championship caliber (my phrase not his).

Apart from QB play, Lanning needs to recruit safeties who can defend championship quality receivers (the incoming guys look promising) and OL men who can play together for more than a year to build teamwork. Again, the recent recruits look promising.

Thanks to anyone who persevered for your patience in reading this.

When we are facing a team with equal or better talent levels (1-2 games per year) and that team is mentally locked on to us, we can't seem to get over the hump.

No doubt Lanning has the team motivated. But it takes more than motivation and talent to win it all. It takes coaching X's and O's and recognizing what the other team is doing.

I'm convinced we don't have the right coaching experience in the room to get us over the hump which is why I'm also disappointed that we didn't go externally for new coordinators, especially if Lanning knew in advance that Stein and Lupoi were looking to take off.

I'm also convinced that it takes a perfect storm to win the national title in the CFP era. Ohio St. had a boatload of experience, a chip on their shoulder and generational players on both sides of the ball in Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs. Indiana is unlike anything I've ever seen in college football and will lose a massive amount of experience next year.

Maybe next year will be our perfect storm with all the players returning. Will it be enough to overcome our lack of coaching experience?

Jon Wilner wrote an article that said "What's next for Oregon after another playoff collapse: The leadership and structure are right, but something's missing. (I was going to provide a link to this article but it's behind a paywall).

He goes on to say it's time to whack the button in Eugene. But which one?

The eject button, the panic button, the snooze button, the reset button?

The Ducks are a CFP regular contender that's far from championship caliber.

How far? 54 points. They were beaten by Ohio St. and Indiana by that much.

Oregon losing to Ohio St. and Indiana in the CFP isn't the issue. It's the fashion in how they lost in the

Rose and Peach Bowls.

Only coach Lanning can uncover the glitch in his system that left Oregon embarrassed in the biggest games the past two years. He mentions how Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi have departed for their head coaching positions and who their replacements will be.

To win games deep in the CFP, to beat opponents with comparable talent, you need equivalent expertise.

Are their replacements up to the task? It's believed that Oregon needs older, wiser coaching staff at the coordinator level. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers staff that sliced and diced the Ducks had decades more experience at the head coach and coordinator levels.

Lupoi's replacement, Chris Hampton has never called plays at the Power Four level and Stein's replacement, Drew Mehringer has one year of coordinator experience at the Power Four level, in 2016 at Rutgers that finished number 127 in the country in scoring.

The Ducks appear so close and, at the same time, so far.

I have a question for everyone to ponder. Assuming Whittington or Davison was healthy, does this team beat Indiana (both games) with Bo Nix at QB?

2 hours ago, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

I have a question for everyone to ponder. Assuming Whittington or Davison was healthy, does this team beat Indiana (both games) with Bo Nix at QB?

No. but with a healthy VA or a Justin Herbert or Masoli--YES.

22 hours ago, DrJacksPlaidPants said:

I have a question for everyone to ponder. Assuming Whittington or Davison was healthy, does this team beat Indiana (both games) with Bo Nix at QB?

First game I would say yes...

Second game... maybe.

23 hours ago, sports fan said:

Jon Wilner wrote an article that said "What's next for Oregon after another playoff collapse: The leadership and structure are right, but something's missing. (I was going to provide a link to this article but it's behind a paywall).

He goes on to say it's time to whack the button in Eugene. But which one?

The eject button, the panic button, the snooze button, the reset button?

The Ducks are a CFP regular contender that's far from championship caliber.

How far? 54 points. They were beaten by Ohio St. and Indiana by that much.

Oregon losing to Ohio St. and Indiana in the CFP isn't the issue. It's the fashion in how they lost in the

Rose and Peach Bowls.

Only coach Lanning can uncover the glitch in his system that left Oregon embarrassed in the biggest games the past two years. He mentions how Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi have departed for their head coaching positions and who their replacements will be.

To win games deep in the CFP, to beat opponents with comparable talent, you need equivalent expertise.

Are their replacements up to the task? It's believed that Oregon needs older, wiser coaching staff at the coordinator level. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers staff that sliced and diced the Ducks had decades more experience at the head coach and coordinator levels.

Lupoi's replacement, Chris Hampton has never called plays at the Power Four level, and Stein's replacement, Drew Mehringer has one year of coordinator experience at the Power Four level, in 2016 at Rutgers that finished number 127 in the country in scoring.

The Ducks appear so close and, at the same time, so far.

Hmmm. Quarter finals in 2024-25. Semifinals in 2025-26.

Dan Lanning is heading into his 5th season with many players who could have gone pro returning, and some good pick-ups from the portal. I doubt Dan is done with this season's portal picking.

It took Kirby Smart and Ryan Day six seasons to win a title.

Getting pantsed in the last act in 2024 and 2025 is hard on the CFB soul. This season, OBD lost to an Indiana team playing a home game in Atlanta, with more fans on hand than the Hoosiers would have had in Bloomington.

Neither loss is as devastating as Ryan Day's loss to Michigan in 2024. But Ohio State gets PO gifts from the football gods. A season earlier, TOSU would not have been in the PO field, and Day's job would have been in jeopardy.

OBD did not have good fortune against Auburn, Urban Meyer's Ohio State team, Ryan Day's Ohio State team, and this season's No. 1-ranked team. Next case.

In 2024-25, No. 1-seeded OBD 'earned' a 1st PO game against the eventual champion. The bracket this season had the top remaining top seeds playing in the semi-finals. FWIW, very little, I think OBD would have defeated Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl, Indiana would have defeated Miami in the Peach Bowl, and the two teams would be playing Monday night in Miami with many Oregon fans in attendance.

OBD does not get PO gifts. That's the way Fortuna fumbles. I look around CFB, and I do not see a supposed top drawer coach, Day, Sark, DeBoer, Kiffin, Mario, or even Kirby Smart, that I'd prefer to have coaching the team in Eugene.

From this fan's POV, I find the two bowl losses to be easier to swallow than when Lewis wiffed on a FG in Seattle that would have tied the game, and worse, the second loss to UW after taking the lead that resulted in a game against Liberty instead of a 1st round game in the PO.

I'm certainly not happy about how this season ended. But I'm certain I am happier than Texas Tech fans. So it goes.

There is no teacher like experience. OBD will be in the 2026-27 PO field with an excellent chance to reach the champ game in Las Vegas. Give me five?

Monday night's championship game will be competitive, but Oregon is odds-on to lose its second 12-team PO game to another winner of the national championship.

TOSU did hit “kick our butts” in the regular season 2024. It’s irrelevant to say that the loosing team had better talent, or that the winning team had more experience. When a player puts on his shoes the day of the game he brings the combined talent and experience to the field. He’s either better than the player wearing the other uniform or he’s not.

My belief is that in all six games, on the day of the games, OBDs were not the better team for a variety of reasons. Yet, because of good coaching and home field advantage we narrowly won one of them. The results make it difficult argue otherwise.

I just want to see the offense throw the damn ball deep 8 times a game.

We're all throwing conjecture on a wall.

So my take is: do what we did October 2024. It worked. Why not go back to it? It also worked against Auburn. Do you see a pattern here?

I agree with Mike West..... Throw the damn ball. (forward not backward)

No surprise, I agree with Mike West, as echoed by Jemangi, throw the ball.

However, you have to be in an upright position to throw the ball. It would also help to have your starting RBs healthy and blocking for the QB. Also, 'on the road' and in front of a vociferous 'home crowd,' how about running the ball on the 1st play from scrimmage?

The second possession by OBD was a thing of beauty. A perfect time-consuming drive that kept the Heisman Trophy winner off the field for close to seven minutes. But once he walked on the field, how do you stop perfect throws to well-covered receivers?

Against Alabama and Oregon, not Alabama State and Oregon State, Mendoza threw more TDs than incompletions. Have any Forum friends seen back-to-back shows like Fernando put on in the Rose and Peach Bowls? I haven't.

If he is under pressure, your QB needs to have a quick release, escapability, or both. Dante is a solid QB, but he doesn't have a quick release or a dual-threat skill set.

A&M QB Reed and Heisman finalist Julian Sayin and their respective O-lines wilted under Miami's pressure. Ole Miss QB Chambliss's athleticism and Miami's bonehead penalties kept Ole Miss in the game, but the Rebels did not have the talent and the depth to stop Miami on its last drive.

On Monday night, I don't think we will see Mendoza, or a receiving corps that's been healthy all season, and an O-line and group of RBs who have been healthy all season succumb to Miami's pressure. IMO, this group is too well coached to go belly up.

The Hoosiers were tested by Iowa, OBD, and Penn State, but stayed together and found a way to win. In the face of Miami's bully-ball, I don't see this group of 'outcasts' as so referred to by Mendoza, rolling over.

Again, OBD's second possession was brilliant, both in play calling and execution. Then, after a stop by OBD's defense, we saw an excellent punt from Indiana's kicker, and then, an OBD RB, with few reps on the season, messed up an RPO handoff on OBD's 5-yard line. Once an avalanche starts ...

So it goes.

CIGS, GET THE B1G 3-PEAT!