(FishDuck Article) "Did 2020 Make or Break Oregon Football?"

[Charles Fischer]

Every year is make or break for someone in football. Whether it is a head coach on the hot seat, a QB with a chance to start, or a veteran skill position player trying to hold off someone younger and more talented, every year brings a plethora of storylines for every team. With the benefit of hindsight we can now ...

Read the full article here...

[BigDucksFan]

With all due respect, lets look at a couple of the points that was made here. 

1) "They also had to convince college kids to avoid going out to parties and social gatherings, risking not only their lives but the lives of their teammates."  Prior to the start of this season there was a lot of talk, on this site of the high possibility of lawsuits by the players getting COVID-19 and suing the school because of it. To date I have not heard of any player, from any school suing its school because of getting COVID-19, also I have not heard of any player, from any school losing their life because of COVID-19. So now to suggest that players "...risking not only their lives but the lives of their teammates" seems to be a bit of exaggeration, IMHO.

2) "The Pac-12 failed to make the playoff again, meaning they did not get the chance to measure themselves against the best teams in the country."  True, and its a good thing because if we had played any of the playoff teams the embarrassment for Oregon would have been much worse. 

3) "Overall, the perception of the program was, at best, stagnant in 2020, while at worst it was damaged heavily. This wager was a massive failure."  Yes, the true damage can not be seen yet until after the final recruiting results are in, and even that might extend into next year. Time will tell but "....a massive failure" is correct. 

4) "2020 saw that culture tested with bad losses, unavailable players and an offseason where they could not outwork their opponents, because they couldn’t work in the first place."  So very true. IMO the unavailable players who oped-out for the NFL really hurt the program more so then the "regression" at QB. I don't think we would have had any of those losses had the full team been suited up and on the field and the Dog's would not have their line "we won the North". 

5) "The culture of the program appears to be intact. Oregon should be able to continue building on their solid foundation in a more regular offseason, despite a struggle of a season in 2020. This wager was a win."  IMO the culture of the program took a big hit on the national scene. Other schools, the playoff committee and ESPN will undoubtable look back at this program and the Pac-12 with laughable comments before Oregon can get redemption. 

6) "If you ask “did 2020 make or break the Oregon Ducks?” the answer has to be that it made them."  No, the answer has to be "yes", but the question has to be "for how long ??"

Loved the article Ryan, thanks for bringing it to us. 

 

[30Duck]

Looking back, the Pac-12, and Oregon in particular, would have done better, perception wise, had they stuck with the decision not to play. When the decision to play was made, it was largely seen as as a too little, too late attempt to copy the B1G, with only 7 games.

The Pac-12 had trouble getting in to the Playoffs in a regular season, everybody knew they didn't have any chance at all in this one. But the Pac-12, in the dark as never before, went on, with games being canceled, making the season even shorter.

When it finally ended up, Oregon was left standing on top of the North. It was fun to see the Ducks play their best game of the season against the Trojans and win the conference championship for the second year in a row. Unfortunately now, it put the Ducks in the Fiesta Bowl, against an Iowa State team, excited to be in its first NY6 Game. We all knew what happened in that one.

So, since they played, we and the Ducks might as well make the best of it. Wilner and Washington can laugh all they want, Oregon won the championship, the players got some experience, and the Ducks can go for the 3-peat in 2021!

[BigDucksFan]

12 minutes ago, 30Duck said:

Looking back, the Pac-12, and Oregon in particular, would have done better, perception wise, had they stuck with the decision not to play. When the decision to play was made, it was largely seen as as a too little, too late attempt to copy the B1G, with only 7 games.

The Pac-12 had trouble getting in to the Playoffs in a regular season, everybody knew they didn't have any chance at all in this one. But the Pac-12, in the dark as never before, went on, with games being canceled, making the season even shorter.

When it finally ended up, Oregon was left standing on top of the North. It was fun to see the Ducks play their best game of the season against the Trojans and win the conference championship for the second year in a row. Unfortunately now, it put the Ducks in the Fiesta Bowl, against an Iowa State team, excited to be in its first NY6 Game. We all knew what happened in that one.

So, since they played, we and the Ducks might as well make the best of it. Wilner and Washington can laugh all they want, Oregon won the championship, the players got some experience, and the Ducks can go for the 3-peat in 2021!

Good points 30Duck. Had the Pac-12 had better leadership from guys like Larry Scott, things could  have been much different in 2020. 

IMO a 3-peat in 2021 will be much more difficult because USC will be much stronger and the Ducks - well, still have issues to work out. 2022 looks more promising. 

[C J]

With USC nipping at our heels in recruiting and flipping some of our best recruits to them I would think that this is the area where we measure whether we made it or broke it. 

If USC overtakes us, which is a strong possibility right now, then I would say..........this season broke the Ducks.

[Haywarduck]

2020 made Oregon stronger, 6th place, in the recruiting rankings, stronger. That is really all that matters in this truncated preseason, season and how the program should be measured.

As far as usc getting much stronger, haven't I heard that before? I hope somebody in the Pac-12 gets stronger, but I wouldn't count on the trojans, with Helton at the wheel.

What will help Oregon going forward is the DC hire. We also need to see some decent transfer action and maybe another recruit. This is what will make the Oregon program going forward. The season was a joke, which Oregon made the best of. 

The best thing which can help all of the programs in the Pac-12 is to get rid of the comedian in charge. The guy who is making a joke of the Pac-12, lavish Larry, needs to go.

[Drake]

The Ducks defense improved, and the offense deteriorated as the abbreviated season moved forward. The Ducks got punched in the nose, and we now have to wait until September to see how they respond. 

I don’t believe that the inconsistent play from the season will make, or break, the team. However, the inconsistent play at QB does create a make, or break, scenario for Shough. Who starts at QB in September is not very clear at the moment. 

The perception that the PAC 12 doesn’t belong in the playoff is definitely true at this moment. However, will our young players rise to the occasion and start to change that perception?

I think they have a great opportunity in front of them. 

Edited January 18, 2021 by Drake

[Charles Fischer]

Finding out now that Shough is not the guy is better than finding out in the fall of 2021, so it was good to flush out weakness.

If Oregon plays well next year and does well in the post-season....all is forgotten about the Iowa State game.  So that perception is yet on hold, as I see it.

But long after this all passes....Oregon is still the Pac-12 Champion for 2020 by beating the best that the South Division had, and nobody can deny or take that from us. Getting that championship is worth it in the end...

 

[GODUCKS15]

I for one can't take the 2020 P12 season seriously. National perception is that the P12 is weak and has been for several years. I feel that it was a wonky season mad even wonkier by the late start that was brought on by forces out of the Ducks control. Oregon did what it needed to to win the P12 and play in the Fiesta.

Yes they lost in the bowl game but does it really matter? Going 4-2 before being in a big 6 bowl game in and of it's self is not normal. Players got to play and coaches got to coach and fans? Well it was rough to watch the whole season. Was it a waste? I don't think so. 

Imagine if the Ducks had not played this season. They would've never found out that they don't have a QB and players that were backups or 1st time starters wouldn't of had the needed real game experience. 

Culture? Top recruits still have the Ducks in their top 8-10 list. That says something about the culture. 

[Charles Fischer]

10 minutes ago, GODUCKS15 said:

Culture? Top recruits still have the Ducks in their top 8-10 list. That says something about the culture. 

Good point, as Oregon did not lose a single verbal in the best class ever; those who said they would sign before the Bowl game still did at signing date.

[AnotherOD]

Interesting thoughts on USC. I've seen many of their fans express that 2021 may be the season many/most of them have been waiting for: a middle to bottom finish in the Pac-12 South, and the end of Helton.

No one in the Pac-12 lost as much to early departures as USC: Tufele (opt out), Vera-Tucker, Hufanga, St. Brown, Vaughns, Griffin, Tuipulotu. Their 2017 and 2018 classes were both highly ranked but a lot of those classes, and especially a lot of the top rated players in those classes, have already moved on (or are otherwise gone). The bulk of their guys will come from USC's 2019 number 20 rated class and 2020's number 64 class (unlike previous years which were #4, #4, #10, #2).

[30Duck]

24 minutes ago, AnotherOD said:

The bulk of their guys will come from USC's 2019 number 20 rated class and 2020's number 64 class (unlike previous years which were #4, #4, #10, #2).

Great research. Fight On Trojans, fight on. 

[AnotherOD]

I might add, its still fluid, but based on who probably comes back and the new recruits, I've got Oregon currently with 47 out of 91 (because of those taking an extra year) "five star or four star" on the 247 Composite.

247 tracks this as their "Blue Chip Ratio". Their theory is that to have ANY chance at a National Championship, the ratio must be 50% or greater, usually 13-16 teams. 

This is scholarship guys, no walk-ons, and actually no transfers, so its 46/88 for 52%.

For 2020, Washington and USC were the only Pac-12 teams represented, UW was 13th (54%) and USC 14th (50%) out of 15 teams total.

When it finalizes and is computed, my first glance suggest Oregon will probably be the only Pac-12 team at 50% or greater. Of course, if my numbers don't have errors (there may be a couple in there, forgetting someone, etc., and of course I haven't actually tracked UW or USC, just eyeballing it).

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by AnotherOD

[Charles Fischer]

43 minutes ago, AnotherOD said:

When it finalizes and is computed, my first glance suggest Oregon will probably be the only Pac-12 team at 50% or greater.

This is really superb research and a highly important point going forward in the conference.  Do hang onto this as I'll bet it will be handy to refer to in the future...

[FishIceCream]

Great article and so many good comments which left me saying - I was going to say that!

I'd add my wholehearted support that the weak leadership of the PAC 12 was on full display this last season, and essentially made it into an 'exhibition season' as far as any chance of playoff consideration. Not that I think any of the teams would have been worthy even if they'd played 12 games. But who knows, with opt outs and all the rest.

A final thought is that, IMHO, whether you win or lose a bowl game really doesn't have much long-term effect on national perception. There can be exceptions: a massive blowout loss or win; a loss that establishes a trend, such as a team that has lost 4 bowl games in a row, or the opposite.

However, outside of getting into the 'final four,' I just have never seen the evidence that it makes all that much difference for people outside of the fan base. People have short memories, even high school recruits, and playing in the game is the more important fact. I could be wrong, but I just have the sense that the fact you won by a couple touchdowns or lost by a couple is largely forgotten after the next season.

Edited January 18, 2021 by FishIceCream

[Jon Sousa]

1 hour ago, AnotherOD said:

I've got Oregon currently with 47 out of 91 (because of those taking an extra year) "five star or four star" on the 247 Composite.

Great post. I just want to point out that it makes a big difference if those are mostly upper classmen, lower classmen, or a mix throughout.

Last year some expected we should walk all over Iowa State because we had a lot more stars than they did... but those stars need to be developed. Last year the Ducks were the youngest team in football. Next year, they won't be, but how many of our elite athletes will be seniors?  Not as many as will be on the rosters of tOSU, Clemson, or Alabama.

Two more years of recruiting are needed to have an even distribution (less transfers) of talent throughout the roster. Two years will include redshirt seniors.

[AnotherOD]

Yes. Heading into next year I'd label about 5 out of the top 47 as "experienced": KT, Wright, Funa, Redd, and ISM. That's really about it. A couple guys like Steven Jones, MAL, Stephens, and A. Jackson have been around for a bit, but really haven't played that much yet.

So, here is the top 50 Ducks according to 247 with grade. Anything over about 0.900 is a top 300 recruit.

5 Star:

1. KT - 0.9987

2. Justin Flowe - 0.9967

3. Sewell - 0.9935

4. Manning - 0.9841

 

4 Star:

5. Suamataia - 0.9831

6. Franklin - 0.9824

7. Thompson - 0.9808

8. Devon Williams - 0.9791

9. Wright - 0.9783

10. Thornton - 0.9735

11. Tauanuu - 0.9695

12. Funa - 0.9681

13. Walden - 0.9635

14. Pittman - 0.9578

15. Addison - 9.9552

16. Keith Brown - 0.9488

17. Stephens - 0.9430

18. Shough - 0.9422

19. Wilhoite - 0.9412

20. Dollars - 0.9387

21. Davies - 0.9356

22. Butterfield - 0.9352

23. Matavao - 0.9328

24. A. Jackson - 0.9313

25. Crocker - 0.9274

26. Brevard - 0.9263

27. Redd - 0.9243

28. Seven - 0.9241

29. Light - 0.9214

30. Delgado - 0.9182

31. Hutson - 0.9158

32. Ferguson - 0.9138

33. David - 0.9131

34. MAL - 0.9128

35. Webb - 0.9103

36. S. Jones - 0.9100

37. Herbert - 0.9090

38. Jaramillo - 0.9085

39. Ware-Hudson - 0.9065

40. Miller - 0.9034

41. Ashford - 0.9006

42. Jonathan Flowe - 0.9002

43. Navarrette - 0.8984

44. Denis - 0.8968

45. J. Jones - 0.8964

46. Keanu Williams - 0.8952

47. ISM - 0.8919

 

3 Star:

48. Kristian Williams - 0.8897

49. Benson - 0.8897

50. B. Williams - 0.8892

 

Edit: I did forget at least one, a transfer though, so the 247 ratio wouldn't include him but: DJ Johnson (4 star, would be 13 at 0.9648).

 

Edited January 19, 2021 by AnotherOD

[30Duck]

3 hours ago, FishIceCream said:

A final thought is that, IMHO, whether you win or lose a bowl game really doesn't have much long-term effect on national perception.

That is unfortunately very true. ESPN and The Playoff have focused the attention so much on the Championship that any other Bowl is only interesting to the fan bases of the teams playing, and when you get past the NY6 Bowls, a lot of the fan bases aren't all that interested.

It would have been better had Oregon won the Fiesta Bowl, but Oregon's Brand wasn't going to be affected by the result. Oregon is linked to the Pac-12 and its negative narrative, but it has its own, bigger identity.