247: 2022 Projected Pac-12 Win Totals

[Jon Joseph]

247 Sports with the help of SP+ and ESPN's Bud Elliott, after simulating thousands of games has come up with these projected  Pac-12 2022 win totals.

 

247's Brad Crawford, predicts the teams that he believes will go Under (U), Over (O) or Even (E) on the projected totals.

 

Arizona - 4 - U - San Diego State and Mississippi State are tough draws OOC. And the FCS opponent is defending FCS Champ North Dakota State!

 

ASU - 6 - E - So much dysfunction in this program from the president, Michael Crow, AD Anderson and Herm himself, on down. I see U here.

 

CAL - 7 - U - I agree with the U. Jake Plummer coming in from Purdue at QB is not an improvement over Gabers.

 

Colorado - 2 - O - Agree; I can see 3 wins.

 

Stanford - 4 - O - Some good recruits coming. Once again no staff changes by Shaw. But I do think the QB is good enough to produce 6 wins?

 

OREGON - 9 - E - I see 10-2, with the caveat below.

 

Oregon State - 7 - E - With Boise State and Fresno State OOC I think 7 is optimistic? Who replaces RB Baylor?

 

UCLA - 8 - E - The Bruins with a putrid OOC slate will start 3-0. So, with DTR back I think 8 wins is doable.

 

USC - 8 - O - see comment below.

 

Utah - 9 - O - If Utah wins at Florida as predicted, I think this is low. I think the Utes have a good shot at 12-1 and a final 4 spot.

 

Washington - 6 - O - I think DeBoer is good enough if transfer QB Penix is healthy enough, to get 6 wins. But 2 UW CB's are projected as 1st round picks.

 

Washington State - 7 - U - How good is transfer Cam Ward who last year in FCS threw 47 TDs against 10 picks. WSU could be the 'surprise' team in 2022.

 

The simulations on their own predict 9 bowl eligible teams; I believe 7 is more likely.

 

Utah is predicted to win at Florida, win the conference title but not make the playoff final 4.

 

8 wins would double last season's number of Trojans wins. I think this doable; however, I think SC is two good recruiting/portal seasons away from national championship contention. (As to ESPN's 2023 recruiting rankings to date, which is very, very early, the Ducks is not in the top 25. USC is.)

 

I see the Ducks finishing 10-2, with BYU being the swing game between 9 and 10? The game in Pullman vs the WSU Cougars after playing the BYU Cougars  at home is IMO, scary.

 

For the most part the above projections look to me to be realistic. How about you, what do you think?

[30Duck]

On 4/7/2022 at 12:42 PM, Jon Joseph said:

what do you think?

Simpatico up to UCLA, where I am more optimistic. I see a 5-0 start, W's  at Colorado and home against Washington before a L against Utah in the Rose Bowl. But after an L to Oregon the Bruins get W's over Stanford and AZ before what should be a highly contested game against SC, before finishing up with a W over Cal. 

[DanLduck]

Barring injuries, I think WSU is the team to beat in the north. They have an experienced qb with the same new OC, and last year they were surprisingly good. I would rather lose to BYU than the Cougs.

 

USC has too many new pieces. UCLA will finally have a good year and beat them.

 

Utah wins the south.

 

Oregon maybe gets 9 wins...

and we better beat the Rodents!

[DUCati855]

On 4/7/2022 at 12:42 PM, Jon Joseph said:

I see the Ducks finishing 10-2, with BYU being the swing game between 9 and 10? The game in Pullman vs the WSU Cougars after playing the BYU Cougars  at home is IMO, scary.

 

For the most part the above projections look to me to be realistic

Jon, I pretty much agree with all of this. I just feel you are a bit optimistic against BYU than I. I hope you are correct!

[Jon Joseph]

On 4/7/2022 at 3:58 PM, 30Duck said:

Simpatico up to UCLA, where I am more optimistic. I see a 5-0 start, W's  at Colorado and home against Washington before a L against Utah in the Rose Bowl. But after an L to Oregon the Bruins get W's over Stanford and AZ before what should be a highly contested game against SC, before finishing up with a W over Cal. 

My only concern Chipper-wise is that he won 8 games last season but none against a team with a winning record. He lost a lot of production on O. I hope you are correct. The conference needs more fans in the Rose Bowl other than on 1/1.

[Jon Joseph]

On 4/7/2022 at 4:05 PM, DanLduck said:

Barring injuries, I think WSU is the team to beat in the north. They have an experienced qb with the same new OC, and last year they were surprisingly good. I would rather lose to BYU than the Cougs.

 

USC has too many new pieces. UCLA will finally have a good year and beat them.

 

Utah wins the south.

 

Oregon maybe gets 9 wins...

and we better beat the Rodents!

WSU is a sleeper, no doubt. But the team to beat in the north I still believe is the Ducks.

[Goutes18]

I agree  on most of these with a few caveats.  

 

I think Arizona is an E with 4 wins and will be a tough out for a lot of teams - good coach with not enough talent but de Laura steps up to get them there.  Will be the best 3 or 4 win team in the conference and the bruins will be the worst 8 or 9 win team based on schedules.

 

Oregon gets 10 wins - No way they lose to the pretenders at byu 

 

I feel obligated to take the under on washington as a show of support for this site!  Maybe they get 6 but not over..

 

Utah should be an over, but could easily be 9 wins.  To get 10 we need to only lose to FL and OR.  Sounds easy, but Utah has NEVER had a season where they won every game they were supposed to - Lost to SDSU, the Beavers and one other last year before the rose bowl, so I am not on board with the 12-1 pick, but REALLY want to be. 

 

I just don’t know what to expect from WSU - somewhere between 4 and 9 wins.

[Mike West]

On 4/7/2022 at 12:42 PM, Jon Joseph said:

 

I see the Ducks finishing 10-2, with BYU being the swing game between 9 and 10? The game in Pullman vs the WSU Cougars after playing the BYU Cougars  at home is IMO, scary

I really don't get the fear of BYU my friend ( you're not alone either ).  I just believe our defense is going to smother that B- level offense.  

 

Just on talent alone, we should win this game.  This game is ours to lose.  BYU is good, but not excellent.  They have to play a flawless game to win.  And if we have any semblance of a good QB, this game is a blowout ( just like Utah last year- if Brown delivers, we deliver the Utes a TKO).  

[Jon Joseph]

On 4/8/2022 at 6:02 AM, Mike West said:

I really don't get the fear of BYU my friend ( you're not alone either ).  I just believe our defense is going to smother that B- level offense.  

 

Just on talent alone, we should win this game.  This game is ours to lose.  BYU is good, but not excellent.  They have to play a flawless game to win.  And if we have any semblance of a good QB, this game is a blowout ( just like Utah last year- if Brown delivers, we deliver the Utes a TKO).  

 

Mike, I certainly understand your point. But the Cougars HC is back. The assistant coaches are back. The starting QB is back. The all time RB is not back but I think BYU will find a decent substitute. And you know you will be playing against a bunch of mature guys and not youngsters just out of high school.

 

Yes, BYU lost its bowl game to UAB. But the Cougars QB was hurt. And how fired up are you going to be as the No. 13 ranked team playing a nothing-burger team in an off the radar exhibition game? No program is going to benefit more from joining the B12 and moving up to the P5 than is BYU.

 

Baylor was a very good football team in 2021; BYU barely lost in Waco. And in 2021, BYU went 5-0 vs the Pac-12, including defeating conference champ Utah. A Utah team that blew out the Ducks twice in three weeks. 

 

I think this team will present a very significant challenge for a team with a new starting QB and an entirely new coaching staff.

 

However, my friend, I sure hope your are right!

[Mike West]

On 4/8/2022 at 10:02 AM, Jon Joseph said:

And you know you will be playing against a bunch of mature guys and not youngsters just out of high school.

 

I totally keep forgetting the Mormon missionaries.  Very keen  observation my friend. As usual.

 

I recognize the Cougars are returning almost all of last year's starters.  They will be more formidable than last year.

 

I also believe we will be as well.  I believe we're going to have a better defense than last year's Baylor bunch.  The talent, even green, is better than we've ever had.  EVER. 

 

If I'm reading Lanning correctly, we're going to make a statement against BYU.  I suspect that will actually start with UGA ( I believe we've seen how to attack their offense- and we have enough talent to work with to make that happen- Ohio State showed us that).  

 

We shall see soon. 

 

I totally love your insight.  You're rarely wrong, and I believe BYU will be very good.  I just believe we're better.

[Jon Joseph]

On 4/9/2022 at 2:16 PM, Mike West said:

 

I totally keep forgetting the Mormon missionaries.  Very keen  observation my friend. As usual.

 

I recognize the Cougars are returning almost all of last year's starters.  They will be more formidable than last year.

 

I also believe we will be as well.  I believe we're going to have a better defense than last year's Baylor bunch.  The talent, even green, is better than we've ever had.  EVER. 

 

If I'm reading Lanning correctly, we're going to make a statement against BYU.  I suspect that will actually start with UGA ( I believe we've seen how to attack their offense- and we have enough talent to work with to make that happen- Ohio State showed us that).  

 

We shall see soon. 

 

I totally love your insight.  You're rarely wrong, and I believe BYU will be very good.  I just believe we're better.

Thanks Mike. Again, I sure hope you are right. 

 

Baylor's D was pretty good in 2021. It held down a prolific Ole Miss O in the Sugar Bowl (part of that was due to the Ole Miss QB being hurt in the game) and won a conference that I think was better and deeper than the Pac-12; see the bowl results. 

 

The B12 went 5-2 in the post season and won 2 NY6 bowl games. 

 

I do think the Ducks are catching UGA at the right time in 2022. Lots of guys on that great D will be playing in the NFL in 2022. And if he is healthy and starts at QB, this will be Nix 4th start versus the Dawgs. And Nix has played many the game in an atmosphere that the Ducks will see in Mercedes Benz stadium.

 

The talent on D as you so note should be fantastic; especially, if Flowe can play at his top drawer level. But as you also noted, it will be young  and facing an O led by a QB with a ton of experience playing behind the best OL the Ducks is likely to see in 2022.

 

It's going to be a fun and interesting ride.

[1Ducker1]

IMO-anything less than 11 wins will be disappointing. 

[Jon Joseph]

On 4/10/2022 at 1:34 PM, 1Ducker1 said:

IMO-anything less than 11 wins will be disappointing. 

Looking at the schedule I can certainly see 11 Ws but I also want to be patient with Lanning in his 1st season if need be.

[Mike West]

Reading the tea leaves after yesterday's scrimmage leads me to believe the following:

 

Given the nature of injuries on the DL, depth is an issue there The good news is the OL dominated the LOS and yes, any average DL is going to get worked over.

 

The WKU RB is going to play lots.  Sean Dollars had his work cut out for him. I suspect Jet Motion plays are in his future.  

 

The coaches did a good job of concealing how good the team is.  Sounds like they want this team to put far more effort into their play.  That said, this team is not elite (yet). 

 

So back to the the teams that threaten us this year: UGA, BYU, and Utah.  The boys from Utah will have to show me more.  Particularly the LBs on defense as they lost arguably the best LB duo in the conference to the NFL.  

 

Can't wait to see their spring game because those replacement LBs must compensate for a secondary prone to giving up big plays to the kind of WRs we have ( and BYU will definitely struggle with that unit as well).

 

Can't wait to see our spring game because it appears the offense will be fine, so it's how dominant the defense will be that matters.  If they can meet or exceed our 2019 version, then this team is going to be a headache to all opponents they face.  

 

A big if. 

 

I'm looking to see minimal mistakes.  The talent is there to make every team but Georgia play their very best game in order to win ( yes, that means Utah will have to make lots of plays in order to win the game if OBD learn to play mistake free ball. I suspect a solid plan to keep QB Rising in the pocket will slow their offense down tremendously).  

 

This is on the players.  How much work they do this summer to become a crisp team is going to make all the difference in the world from my perspective.  From what I've dug up so far, effort is an issue.  Which might simply be the lack of urgency to recognize there is no tomorrow.  

 

If that makes sense, from a standpoint of what excellence requires, then this team just needs to learn how to play like Sewell and Flowe.  Match their intensity, and this team will grow into a very dominant team. 

[1Ducker1]

On 4/10/2022 at 12:13 PM, Jon Joseph said:

Looking at the schedule I can certainly see 11 Ws but I also want to be patient with Lanning in his 1st season if need be.

Outside of Georgia who do we play thats really good? Utah with a less than top 30  in recruiting year after year? I love my Ducks but its time for..... show me the money!!!!

Im just sayin that the Ducks are big $$$ now. Lets get some important wins on a consistent basis, we play in probably the worst power 5 conference.

[Jon Joseph]

On 4/10/2022 at 5:15 PM, 1Ducker1 said:

Outside of Georgia who do we play thats really good? Utah with a less than top 30  in recruiting year after year? I love my Ducks but its time for..... show me the money!!!!

Im just sayin that the Ducks are big $$$ now. Lets get some important wins on a consistent basis, we play in probably the worst power 5 conference.

LOVE THE ENTHUSIASM! I don't necessarily disagree but OOC playing the likely #3 team in the country and another top 25 team and then having to play 5 conference games on the road?

 

Your words to the football gods ears my friend.

[WildWildWildcats]

I think Arizona comes out strong and wins it's first game and the game against Mississippi State is at home against a very familiar coach and offense, I think Arizona pulls this game out with a sell out crowd, the game against North Dakota State is still a toss up, they play them at home so they have that advantage at least and then in the conference they have games against Colorado, WSU, Cal and ASU and they will most likely be favored at home against three of those teams, 5-6 wins is definitely doable. 

[Charles Fischer]

Welcome, and Wildcats are welcome here as well as fans from other teams.  I gave you an Arizona helmet avatar, and you are encouraged to offer your thoughts on the upcoming football season.

[Haywarduck]

Should have, could have, would have, but the ball is oblong. I have no idea, but there will be some bounces we don't anticipate. I predict one big thing we all anticipate happening won't and one thing we don't think will happen, will. That is far out as I will go.